Election Day Is Here. From Governor to LA Mayor, These Are the Races to Watch

A messy, confusing race for California governor

California’s first truly open governor’s race in more than two decades has remained unsettled to the end.

Polls now show three candidates likely competing for the two spots in the November general election: Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Republican businessman and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, and billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer.

If Becerra secures one of the top spots, as the latest polling suggests, it would cap one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

But Becerra’s campaign was boosted after former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress following multiple accusations of sexual assault and harassment. Shortly after Swalwell’s exit, Becerra began rising in the polls, outpacing most of his Democratic rivals.

President Donald Trump also endorsed Hilton in April, propelling him to the top of the field alongside Becerra. But neither has cracked more than 25% support in most public polls — and Steyer, who’s spent more than $213 million of his own fortune in the race, remains within striking distance of the top two in recent surveys.

That state of play helped quell fears among Democrats that a crowded field without a superstar candidate could result in two Republicans moving on to the general election, locking out Democrats entirely.

An open congressional seat in San Francisco

With the retirement of Democratic powerhouse Nancy Pelosi, most San Francisco voters are facing an open congressional seat for the first time since 1987.

Pelosi’s exit has spurred a tight and spirited contest among three leading Democrats to replace her: state Sen. Scott Wiener, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, and Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech engineer who previously worked as chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Polls show the race boiling down to a fight for the No. 2 spot, with Wiener leading and expected to make the November runoff. He’s made a name for himself as a staunch champion of increasing housing development and funding public transit, and defending gay rights. Wiener is seen as the more business-friendly moderate in the race — though on the national stage, he’d be considered incredibly liberal.

Chan has racked up the endorsements of labor groups and Pelosi, as well as some other big-name Democrats, including U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff and former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown. She’s running as a tried-and-true San Francisco progressive and has leaned on her personal story as an immigrant and mother.

Chakrabarti, who’s used his own personal wealth to help fund his upstart campaign, is running as an outsider who will shake things up. He’s had to introduce himself to an electorate unfamiliar with him, and is banking on frustration with the Democratic Party establishment to help fuel his run.

Other congressional races

The real action in California’s congressional swing seats won’t start until the fall, when Democrats are hoping to flip multiple Republican-held districts in their push to retake the House of Representatives.

But a pair of primaries today will set the stage for those battles. In the Bakersfield-area 22nd District, Democrats Jasmeet Bains, a moderate state Assemblymember, and Randy Villegas, a progressive school board member, are competing to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao.

And in the newly drawn 48th District, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Navy Reserve officer Ammar Campa-Najjar are among the Democrats vying to make the general election, where they will likely face Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor.

In safe Democratic seats, a handful of primaries are dividing along generational lines. Longtime incumbents Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui and Brad Sherman are all facing youthful challengers arguing for a changing of the guard.

An important race for insurance commissioner

Compare insurance commissioner candidates in the KQED Voter Guide 

Outside of governor, the primary for California’s insurance commissioner is the statewide election with the highest stakes. The next commissioner will assume oversight of an insurance market in crisis — with insurers issuing nonrenewals and limiting new policies in the face of massive wildfire threats and liabilities.

The field of Democrats running includes state Sen. Ben Allen and former state Sen. Steven Bradford, along with former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim and financial analyst Patrick Wolff.

Five Republicans are also on the ballot, though unlikely to win statewide election. Insurance agent Stacy Korsgaden has won the party’s official endorsement.

Local taxes as cities face budget crunches

Voters in the Bay Area’s three largest cities will decide whether to approve new taxes to help bolster struggling local budgets.

In San Francisco and Oakland, the tax votes could provide a key measure of the political clout of Mayors Daniel Lurie and Barbara Lee a year into their terms.

Lee is pushing for the passage of Measure E, a parcel tax of $192 a year for single-family properties that is expected to raise $34 million annually. Across the bay, Lurie is asking voters to reject Proposition D, a union-backed measure that would increase business taxes on corporations whose CEOs make 100 times more than their median San Francisco employee.

In San José, Measure A has been met with less debate: The city’s entire political establishment is behind the idea of increasing the hotel tax from 10% to 12% to bring in $10 million a year for the general fund.

Los Angeles mayor’s race takes statewide spotlight

The L.A. mayor’s race has emerged after the governor’s race as one of the most surprising contests in California.

Mayor Karen Bass, a longtime fixture in L.A. Democratic politics, is facing challenges from both the left and the right: City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a former Bass ally, is running as a more progressive alternative; and former reality TV star and Republican Spencer Pratt is running on an anti-establishment platform.

Much of the race has been fueled by lingering anger over Bass’ response to the 2025 L.A. wildfires; Pratt lost his Pacific Palisades home in one of the blazes. Polls show a close race among all three candidates, a remarkable turn for Bass, who has represented L.A. in Congress and the state Legislature for decades.

How much will we know tonight?

As always, Californians’ reliance on vote-by-mail will mean a longer wait for definitive results. That’s especially true if many voters wait until today to return their ballot.

If the leading candidates in the race for governor remain separated by just a handful of percentage points, the top two finishers may not become clear for days or even weeks as ballots are counted.

And the results could shift — data suggests the early vote has been more heavily Republican than in previous primaries, meaning the ballots that remain to be counted could be more heavily Democratic.

In 2022, the second- and third-place finishers in the statewide race for insurance commissioner were separated by less than a percentage point. The race was not decided until a month after Election Day.

For state and federal races, KQED relies on the Associated Press to “call” the winner, which is determined through an analysis of surveys, results and remaining ballots to declare when a trailing candidate or measure cannot catch the leader.