New California Governor Poll Shows a Slim but Growing Chance of 2 Democrats Advancing

The survey is the latest data point marking Becerra’s consolidation of Democratic support in the weeks after former Rep. Eric Swalwell ended his campaign — as well as Hilton’s growing backing from Republicans after winning the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

But the Berkeley poll finds Steyer remains within striking distance of making the general election, with an even smaller gap than other recent surveys. A poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California, for example, had Steyer trailing Hilton by 5 points and Becerra by 8 — though the PPIC polled from May 14–18, while the Berkeley IGS surveyed voters from May 19–24.

Meanwhile, support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, (11%) and former Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, (7%) declined from previous Berkeley IGS surveys.

“It’s hard to bounce back once your numbers start going down, especially this late in the campaign,” DiCamillo said.

The unsettled race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom has led to a fracturing of support among Democratic elected officials and interest groups and an avalanche of spending. Steyer, who made billions as a hedge fund manager, has given a record $213 million to his own campaign, while a super PAC backed by PG&E and business groups has spent $34 million to oppose Steyer.

The field of notable candidates also includes Democrats Matt Mahan, the mayor of San José, who garnered 4% support, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who each received the support of 1% of voters.

This spring, Democratic leaders publicly worried that a splintered field could allow both Hilton and Bianco to advance to the general election. But those fears have largely dissipated after Trump’s endorsement drove GOP voters toward Hilton and as Democrats began to consolidate behind Becerra and Steyer.

In the latest survey, 37% of likely GOP voters told the IGS pollsters that the Trump endorsement made them more likely to back Hilton, compared with just 6% who said it made their support of Hilton less likely.

While Becerra and Steyer have solidified themselves as the Democratic frontrunners, Democrats have returned ballots at lower rates than in the state’s last midterm election in 2022, possibly reflecting an uncertainty over the options at the top of the ticket.

According to data from Political Data Inc., 44% of the ballots returned through Wednesday have come from registered Democrats, compared with 53% at the same point in 2022. Republicans have accounted for 35% of ballots returned, up from their 26% share four years ago.

The Berkeley IGS poll reflected those turnout dynamics, finding that among voters who had already cast their ballot, Hilton received 29% support, followed by Becerra at 20% and Steyer at 17%.

The survey found 7% of voters remain undecided. But a further consolidation of voter preferences could boost Hilton in the election’s closing days.

Asked for their second choice in the governor’s race, 7 in 10 Bianco supporters named Hilton. On the Democratic side, Porter supporters were more evenly split between backing Becerra (37%) and Steyer (31%).

“Bianco’s supporters clearly choose Hilton as their second choice … so that’s a pretty good benefit for Hilton as the final week approaches,” DiCamillo said. “It’s not a clear picture of what might happen if [Porter] supporters should decide to leave her candidacy.”