California Democrats, Anxious About ‘Wasted’ Votes, Are Clinging to Their Ballots

In a governor’s race that has seen tidal shifts in momentum, from the scandalous exit of former East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell to President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican frontrunner Steve Hilton, some Democratic voters have expressed concern that a last-minute revelation or incorrect polling could lead them to feel like their vote was wasted on a candidate who doesn’t advance out of the primary.

“It’s like a horse race where you see a horse at the back of the pack, and then it moves up to the front, and then back again,” said Neil Tsutsui, president of the El Cerrito Democratic Club.

Even more concerning for some is the idea that the two Republican candidates could come out on top of the crowded field and lock out Democrats from the general election, despite polling suggesting that’s highly unlikely.

“Times now just feel so uncertain, and the stakes are so high that voters like me who normally would be early voting wait much later than we normally would,” Tsutsui said.

With a crowded Democratic field and California’s “jungle primary” system that sends the top two finishers to the November runoff regardless of party affiliation, Democratic voters have been feeling the pressure to cast their ballot for a legitimate contender.

The overarching theme of this election has been strategic voting, according to Paul Mitchell, the vice president of Political Data Inc.

“More than ever, voting has really been focused on this question of ‘Who do I vote for in order to make sure my vote counts?’” Mitchell said. “Not only voting for somebody on policy, but that my vote contributes to my party being able to get a candidate into the runoff.”

But while Democrats wring their hands over their best choice in a crowded field, Republicans have just two leading candidates to choose from, which could partially explain the higher turnout so far among GOP voters, according to Mitchell.

A poll of likely voters from the Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday showed Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton with the most support at 23% and 20% respectively, with Democrat Tom Steyer at 15% and Republican Chad Bianco at 13%. With Democratic support coalescing behind either Becerra or Steyer, and Hilton pulling away with the Republican vote, a runoff between a Democrat and a Republican is the most likely outcome.

Not wanting to “waste” her vote was the main reason Lauren Schwartz of San Francisco decided to hang on to her ballot longer than ever.

“I think everyone has PTSD from Eric Swalwell,” Schwartz said, referring to the sexual assault allegations that tanked the onetime frontrunner’s campaign.

”The first concern was about having two Republicans, and now the concern is about wasted votes on Democrats who won’t make it to the top,” Schwartz said. She said confusion was high at a recent proposition party she hosted, where friends gathered to discuss candidates and measures.

“Everyone I know is holding on to their ballots until the bitter end,” Schwartz said.

Although Democrats have lagged in early voting in this year’s primary, Mitchell said they can be relatively confident that turnout will improve in the coming days, as the voters who have not turned in their ballots so far are largely higher propensity, older voters.

But he cautioned that waiting too long to vote could backfire.

Ballots postmarked by Election Day must be counted, but a 2025 rule change by the United States Postal Service means that mail might not receive a postmark on the same day the Postal Service takes possession of it. That means that if a voter drops a ballot in a mailbox late on Election Day, there’s a chance it won’t be counted.

The Los Angeles Times reported in April that this rule change led to a fourfold increase in ballots not being counted in the November 2025 special election, with rural counties seeing the biggest increases.

If voters mail their ballot on Election Day, California’s secretary of state recommends getting a hand-stamped postmark from an employee inside the post office. Bay Area counties also operate official drop boxes.

“ I always say the easiest way to vote is to vote the minute you get the ballot in your hands and to not wait,” Mitchell said.