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"content": "\u003cp>The errant \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/earthquake\">earthquake\u003c/a> warning that lit up phones across Northern California with a notice of a quake in Nevada on Thursday morning was not a result of a problem with the early warning delivery system or MyShake phone application, officials said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least four separate seismic stations detected ground motion “that told the system there was an earthquake,” which triggered the false warning of a magnitude 5.9 earthquake, according to officials with the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS quickly canceled the warning and posted a statement online that said there was no earthquake at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is the very first time we’ve had what I call a through and through false alert delivery because of something that may have happened out somewhere out in the field,” ShakeAlert operations team lead Robert de Groot told KQED. “We’ve had occurrences where we’ve alerted more people than should have been alerted, but [in this case] something triggered the system, but it wasn’t an earthquake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>USGS officials do not yet know what caused the shaking. De Groot said research teams are analyzing information from other seismic stations and could potentially launch a field investigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Earth does different things all the time and we can’t know everything, but we’re continuing to improve the system to understand,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The alert, which urged people to “drop, cover and hold on” to prepare for imminent shaking, caused at least one TV station, KTVU, to report on the quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Four million Californians have downloaded\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12059704/why-your-phone-may-get-a-loud-earthquake-test-alert-this-week-and-how-the-myshake-app-works\"> the MyShake app\u003c/a>, which provides real-time alerts for earthquakes on smartphones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The app was developed at UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab and funded by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES). It buzzes when an earthquake of a magnitude of 4.5 or higher occurs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley’s seismology team posted a statement to social media at 9:55 a.m. about the false alert by the MyShake system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This system has delivered more than 170 real alerts since 2019 and this incident is both unprecedented and rare,” MyShake said on \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/MyShakeApp/status/1996639456678629734\">X\u003c/a>. “Fortunately, there was no danger this morning, but this serves as a reminder that earthquake preparedness is essential.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The errant \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/earthquake\">earthquake\u003c/a> warning that lit up phones across Northern California with a notice of a quake in Nevada on Thursday morning was not a result of a problem with the early warning delivery system or MyShake phone application, officials said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At least four separate seismic stations detected ground motion “that told the system there was an earthquake,” which triggered the false warning of a magnitude 5.9 earthquake, according to officials with the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS quickly canceled the warning and posted a statement online that said there was no earthquake at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is the very first time we’ve had what I call a through and through false alert delivery because of something that may have happened out somewhere out in the field,” ShakeAlert operations team lead Robert de Groot told KQED. “We’ve had occurrences where we’ve alerted more people than should have been alerted, but [in this case] something triggered the system, but it wasn’t an earthquake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>USGS officials do not yet know what caused the shaking. De Groot said research teams are analyzing information from other seismic stations and could potentially launch a field investigation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Earth does different things all the time and we can’t know everything, but we’re continuing to improve the system to understand,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The alert, which urged people to “drop, cover and hold on” to prepare for imminent shaking, caused at least one TV station, KTVU, to report on the quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Four million Californians have downloaded\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12059704/why-your-phone-may-get-a-loud-earthquake-test-alert-this-week-and-how-the-myshake-app-works\"> the MyShake app\u003c/a>, which provides real-time alerts for earthquakes on smartphones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The app was developed at UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab and funded by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES). It buzzes when an earthquake of a magnitude of 4.5 or higher occurs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley’s seismology team posted a statement to social media at 9:55 a.m. about the false alert by the MyShake system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This system has delivered more than 170 real alerts since 2019 and this incident is both unprecedented and rare,” MyShake said on \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/MyShakeApp/status/1996639456678629734\">X\u003c/a>. “Fortunately, there was no danger this morning, but this serves as a reminder that earthquake preparedness is essential.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>The South Bay was rattled by a cluster of small earthquakes on Wednesday morning, according to data from the \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=nc75269596&extent=36.78399,-122.0842&extent=37.45633,-120.99106&listOnlyShown=true\">U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A magnitude 4.0 quake hit just east of Gilroy at 6:16 a.m., and it was followed within minutes by two smaller tremors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At 6:18 a.m., a magnitude 2.7 aftershock hit less than a mile from the epicenter of the first, and at 6:20 a.m., a magnitude 3.6 quake struck slightly south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The shaking appears to have been centered in San José and throughout the South Bay, with light to moderate shaking closest to the epicenter of the largest quake, though people as far north as Antioch and south as San Lucas \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/map?shakemap-code=75269596&shakemap-source=nc&shakemap-intensity=true&shakemap-mmi-contours=false&shakemap-macroseismic-stations=true&shakemap-seismic-stations=true\">reported feeling the quake\u003c/a>. No reports of damage were immediately available.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the USGS, the Calaveras Fault likely produced the earthquakes. The last large quake recorded on the slip-strike fault was a magnitude 6.2 quake that jolted \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/region-info\">Morgan Hill in 1984.\u003c/a> Cavaleras is believed to have about an 11% chance of producing a larger quake by 2033.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The odds that Wednesday’s cluster of quakes is a precursor to a much bigger one are low — USGS data shows there is about a \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/oaf/overview\">14% chance\u003c/a> of another one above magnitude 3.0, and those odds drop to 2% for a magnitude 4.0 or higher quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The South Bay was rattled by a cluster of small earthquakes on Wednesday morning, according to data from the \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?currentFeatureId=nc75269596&extent=36.78399,-122.0842&extent=37.45633,-120.99106&listOnlyShown=true\">U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A magnitude 4.0 quake hit just east of Gilroy at 6:16 a.m., and it was followed within minutes by two smaller tremors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At 6:18 a.m., a magnitude 2.7 aftershock hit less than a mile from the epicenter of the first, and at 6:20 a.m., a magnitude 3.6 quake struck slightly south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The shaking appears to have been centered in San José and throughout the South Bay, with light to moderate shaking closest to the epicenter of the largest quake, though people as far north as Antioch and south as San Lucas \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/map?shakemap-code=75269596&shakemap-source=nc&shakemap-intensity=true&shakemap-mmi-contours=false&shakemap-macroseismic-stations=true&shakemap-seismic-stations=true\">reported feeling the quake\u003c/a>. No reports of damage were immediately available.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the USGS, the Calaveras Fault likely produced the earthquakes. The last large quake recorded on the slip-strike fault was a magnitude 6.2 quake that jolted \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/region-info\">Morgan Hill in 1984.\u003c/a> Cavaleras is believed to have about an 11% chance of producing a larger quake by 2033.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The odds that Wednesday’s cluster of quakes is a precursor to a much bigger one are low — USGS data shows there is about a \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1764166600/oaf/overview\">14% chance\u003c/a> of another one above magnitude 3.0, and those odds drop to 2% for a magnitude 4.0 or higher quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "san-francisco-reveals-new-earthquake-firefighting-system-36-years-after-loma-prieta",
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"content": "\u003cp>Just minutes after a minor earthquake shook the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/bay-area\">Bay Area\u003c/a>, San Francisco officials demonstrated the city’s preparedness for a more serious natural disaster — with what they called the nation’s only dedicated emergency firefighting system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The demonstration also commemorated the anniversary of the 1989 \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/loma-prieta\">Loma Prieta\u003c/a> earthquake — which caused catastrophic consequences to Bay Area residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 6.9 magnitude disaster, 36 years ago on Friday, killed 63 people, injured 3,800 and led to the collapse of the upper deck of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. A natural gas main rupture in the Marina District caused a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist2/presidio.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire\u003c/a> to break out, and the neighborhood’s hydrants ran dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Standing on a fire truck parked outside of Pump Station 2, at 3455 Van Ness Ave., firefighters pumped water from the San Francisco Bay through the pipes, and back into the Bay in a large stream.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The test marked the end of an eight-year, $20 million upgrade to Pump Station 2, part of the city’s auxiliary water supply system. The system should now be able to withstand a 7.9 magnitude earthquake, and will allow the city to have a limitless supply of water to respond to fires when a similar quake were to occur again here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>This building has strengthened walls, a new roof, a new generator, and is designed to withstand a 7.9 magnitude earthquake, and it can operate even when the electric grid is down,” said Dennis Herrera, general manager at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11804757\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11804757\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut.jpg\" alt=\"Firefighters extinguish fire in the Marina District in San Francisco in October 1989 after the Loma Prieta earthquake erupted in the city.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1294\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-800x539.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-1020x687.jpg 1020w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Firefighters extinguish fires in the Marina District in San Francisco in October 1989 after the Loma Prieta earthquake erupted in the city. \u003ccite>(Jonathan Nourok/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But the water won’t reach all parts of the city equally. In bracing for “the big one,” city officials admit that some parts of the city are more prepared than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Katie Miller, the director of water capital programs at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, said that the western and southern parts of the city, like the Sunset and Richmond districts, have fewer pipes connected to the city’s water supply. Most of the pipe is in older parts of the city, like downtown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have already installed about two miles of the pipe, and we have additional funding available for another four miles in the Sunset. But we’re looking to future emergency safety and earthquake response bond funding that will come to the voters in 2026 or 2028,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mayor Daniel Lurie attended Thursday’s demonstration and told attendees the city is “always preparing” for the “Big One.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have made real progress. We’ve upgraded our emergency water systems, strengthened our fire stations, and improved public safety infrastructure,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Just minutes after a minor earthquake shook the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/bay-area\">Bay Area\u003c/a>, San Francisco officials demonstrated the city’s preparedness for a more serious natural disaster — with what they called the nation’s only dedicated emergency firefighting system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The demonstration also commemorated the anniversary of the 1989 \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/loma-prieta\">Loma Prieta\u003c/a> earthquake — which caused catastrophic consequences to Bay Area residents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 6.9 magnitude disaster, 36 years ago on Friday, killed 63 people, injured 3,800 and led to the collapse of the upper deck of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. A natural gas main rupture in the Marina District caused a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist2/presidio.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire\u003c/a> to break out, and the neighborhood’s hydrants ran dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Standing on a fire truck parked outside of Pump Station 2, at 3455 Van Ness Ave., firefighters pumped water from the San Francisco Bay through the pipes, and back into the Bay in a large stream.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The test marked the end of an eight-year, $20 million upgrade to Pump Station 2, part of the city’s auxiliary water supply system. The system should now be able to withstand a 7.9 magnitude earthquake, and will allow the city to have a limitless supply of water to respond to fires when a similar quake were to occur again here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>This building has strengthened walls, a new roof, a new generator, and is designed to withstand a 7.9 magnitude earthquake, and it can operate even when the electric grid is down,” said Dennis Herrera, general manager at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_11804757\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-11804757\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut.jpg\" alt=\"Firefighters extinguish fire in the Marina District in San Francisco in October 1989 after the Loma Prieta earthquake erupted in the city.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1294\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-800x539.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2021/02/RS41727_earthquake-qut-1020x687.jpg 1020w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Firefighters extinguish fires in the Marina District in San Francisco in October 1989 after the Loma Prieta earthquake erupted in the city. \u003ccite>(Jonathan Nourok/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But the water won’t reach all parts of the city equally. In bracing for “the big one,” city officials admit that some parts of the city are more prepared than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Katie Miller, the director of water capital programs at the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, said that the western and southern parts of the city, like the Sunset and Richmond districts, have fewer pipes connected to the city’s water supply. Most of the pipe is in older parts of the city, like downtown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have already installed about two miles of the pipe, and we have additional funding available for another four miles in the Sunset. But we’re looking to future emergency safety and earthquake response bond funding that will come to the voters in 2026 or 2028,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mayor Daniel Lurie attended Thursday’s demonstration and told attendees the city is “always preparing” for the “Big One.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We have made real progress. We’ve upgraded our emergency water systems, strengthened our fire stations, and improved public safety infrastructure,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Many of the world’s largest and most devastating \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/earthquake\">earthquakes\u003c/a> strike beneath the ocean, where the lack of sensors makes quick warnings difficult. Most monitoring stations are on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have a big earthquake under the water, like that Kamchatka earthquake [this summer], our sensors that tell us an earthquake just happened are really quite far away,” said \u003ca href=\"https://seismo.sites.ucsc.edu/emily-brodsky/\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, a geophysicist at UC Santa Cruz. “And so we’re sort of looking through this very fuzzy pair of glasses at the earthquake and making our best guess on what it’s gonna mean in terms of tsunamis or anything else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>New \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adx6858\">research published Thursday\u003c/a> suggests fiber optic cables on the ocean floor could serve as earthquake sensors, Brodsky said. She \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aeb1414\">co-authored a commentary\u003c/a> accompanying the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With 70% of the planet covered by water, using telecommunications infrastructure as seismometers could fill major blind spots in earthquake detection in a relatively affordable and scientifically robust way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While this is not the first paper describing the technique, it pushes the technology to new limits, focusing on how faults rupture underwater. That’s important because researchers could see that the fault was rupturing super fast, casting new light on the physics of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To use fiber optic cables this way, researchers partner with a company running the cables — in this case, \u003ca href=\"https://www.verofiber.com/\">Vero Fiber Networks\u003c/a> — and attach a box containing a laser and a computer. The laser sends pulses into the fiber that echo all along its length.[aside postID=news_12057001 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/09/250922-BERKELEY-EARTHQUAKE-KQED-1.jpg']If the cable stretches due to earthquake movements, the light echoes change. The changes can be converted into measurements, giving a fine-grained view of the event. Even in California, which is relatively well-covered by seismometers, stations are spaced several miles apart. Fiber optic sensing allows measurements down to the scale of feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With this higher resolution, earthquake early warning alerts, like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994754/emergency-alert-phone-earthquake-test-2024-myshake\">Californians receive through MyShake\u003c/a>, could improve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Traditionally, it’s very, very hard to see for big earthquakes, how long is the fault that’s rupturing, in what direction is it going?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/james-w-atterholt\">James Atterholt\u003c/a>, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and author on the research paper. “And this technology shows that with modifications, with advancements, that this could be done in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some experts are skeptical that predicting earthquakes is possible. Others, including Brodsky, are cautiously optimistic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Just to be clear, no, we do not know how to predict earthquakes. But we do want to study whether or not they’re predictable,” she said. “We are in a totally different place than we were 15 years ago.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists now have better hypotheses for how prediction could work, Brodsky said, but “to a large extent, we’re instrumentally limited and we need the investment. And it’s kind of that simple.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Many of the world’s largest and most devastating \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/earthquake\">earthquakes\u003c/a> strike beneath the ocean, where the lack of sensors makes quick warnings difficult. Most monitoring stations are on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have a big earthquake under the water, like that Kamchatka earthquake [this summer], our sensors that tell us an earthquake just happened are really quite far away,” said \u003ca href=\"https://seismo.sites.ucsc.edu/emily-brodsky/\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, a geophysicist at UC Santa Cruz. “And so we’re sort of looking through this very fuzzy pair of glasses at the earthquake and making our best guess on what it’s gonna mean in terms of tsunamis or anything else.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>New \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adx6858\">research published Thursday\u003c/a> suggests fiber optic cables on the ocean floor could serve as earthquake sensors, Brodsky said. She \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aeb1414\">co-authored a commentary\u003c/a> accompanying the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With 70% of the planet covered by water, using telecommunications infrastructure as seismometers could fill major blind spots in earthquake detection in a relatively affordable and scientifically robust way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While this is not the first paper describing the technique, it pushes the technology to new limits, focusing on how faults rupture underwater. That’s important because researchers could see that the fault was rupturing super fast, casting new light on the physics of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To use fiber optic cables this way, researchers partner with a company running the cables — in this case, \u003ca href=\"https://www.verofiber.com/\">Vero Fiber Networks\u003c/a> — and attach a box containing a laser and a computer. The laser sends pulses into the fiber that echo all along its length.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>If the cable stretches due to earthquake movements, the light echoes change. The changes can be converted into measurements, giving a fine-grained view of the event. Even in California, which is relatively well-covered by seismometers, stations are spaced several miles apart. Fiber optic sensing allows measurements down to the scale of feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With this higher resolution, earthquake early warning alerts, like \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994754/emergency-alert-phone-earthquake-test-2024-myshake\">Californians receive through MyShake\u003c/a>, could improve.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Traditionally, it’s very, very hard to see for big earthquakes, how long is the fault that’s rupturing, in what direction is it going?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/staff-profiles/james-w-atterholt\">James Atterholt\u003c/a>, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and author on the research paper. “And this technology shows that with modifications, with advancements, that this could be done in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some experts are skeptical that predicting earthquakes is possible. Others, including Brodsky, are cautiously optimistic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Just to be clear, no, we do not know how to predict earthquakes. But we do want to study whether or not they’re predictable,” she said. “We are in a totally different place than we were 15 years ago.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists now have better hypotheses for how prediction could work, Brodsky said, but “to a large extent, we’re instrumentally limited and we need the investment. And it’s kind of that simple.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published in January 2019. It is being republished after a magnitude 4.3 earthquake centered near Berkeley rattled the Bay Area on Monday morning. Read more\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12057001/bay-area-earthquake-was-near-fault-thats-overdue-for-intense-quake\"> here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On two straight mornings in January 2019, residents awoke to the familiar rock and roll from a\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11718873/another-morning-another-wake-up-quake-in-the-east-bay-hills\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> cluster of relatively small earthquakes\u003c/a> along the Hayward Fault, across the bay from San Francisco. It’s not the first time, nor will it be the last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While neither the magnitude 3.4 nor 3.5 quakes broke the seismograph, the two events struck in essentially the same spot. Both had epicenters nestled in the Oakland-Berkeley Hills, just a few miles from the UC Berkeley campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such cluster quakes always get people wondering if they mean more than the usual random jiggling. To get a read on this, we spoke to earthquake experts with UC Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/blog/2015/10/13/weak-stresses-strong-earthquakes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seismology Lab\u003c/a> about what it means, if anything, when it comes to forecasting the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Peggy Hellweg with UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab, there’s minor earthquake activity occurring almost continuously along the Hayward Fault, though most of it goes unnoticed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And while January’s “felt quakes” were reported as individual events, they can be thought of as belonging to the same sequence of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would actually group them together since they’re so close together on the fault and call one the foreshock, and then the one from Thursday morning, the main shock,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Kind of Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trouble with terms like “foreshock” and “aftershock” is that scientists never know how to categorize one or the other until after the shaking settles down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hellweg says she wouldn’t have been surprised to see tiny quakes or even another of similar size in the days following to finish out the sequence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you look at the history of earthquakes along this section of the Hayward Fault, there can be from one to four earthquakes felt by the people who live here,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What do minor “felt quakes” foretell about the likelihood of the next Big One hitting the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Short answer: There’s no way to know for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, Hellweg says, in the last 20 to 30 years, “no big earthquake has happened on the Hayward Fault associated with one of these little sequences of earthquakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here’s the bad news: pressure has been building up on the Hayward Fault. It’s been more than 150 years since the\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> last major earthquake\u003c/a> to rattle the fault, which stretches through the most \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/\">densely populated\u003c/a> stretch of the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geological studies put the average interval between big quakes on the Hayward Fault at about 140 years, give or take 50 years. Meaning the Big One could happen any day now or not in the lifetime of many middle-aged residents. Scientists who developed the \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">HayWired\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> modeling scenario\u003c/a> estimate that there’s about a one-in-three chance of a magnitude-7 quake on the Hayward within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here’s the other bad news: the oft-repeated idea that minor temblors serve to relieve pressure on the fault and lessen the chances of a major event, is a myth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the question of whether it happens tomorrow, Hellweg says, “Do I expect it? No. Would I be surprised? No.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/thepaintgrammer/status/1085905639077928969\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where does that leave the current state of the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reports from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest that damage caused by the next major quake along the Hayward Fault could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-hayward-fault-20180417-htmlstory.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">catastrophic\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What concerns UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann is where recent small quakes occurred on the fault line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re right next to part of the Hayward Fault that — from the kind of research we do here at Berkeley — we know to be the part that’s fully locked,” Burgman says. “That’s the part that, when a really big earthquake — magnitude 7 or so — happens again on the Hayward Fault, it will likely rupture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault lines — or different portions of the same fault — can be classified as \u003ca href=\"https://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/quaternary/stories/hayward_creep.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">locked or creeping\u003c/a>. Creeping faults shift slowly over time, and may undergo smaller quakes like the ones observed this week. Locked faults, however, don’t move, causing pressure to build until a large-magnitude earthquake releases it. The Hayward Fault is considered a mixed fault line, with sections that creep and ones that don’t. The ones that don’t pose the biggest danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This [latest] pair of events is small, but they’re right next to the sleeping beast of the Hayward Fault that we know is essentially ready to have a big earthquake today or in a couple of decades.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The danger, according to Burgmann, is that a cluster of small quakes adjacent to the locked portion of the fault could be “possible foreshocks” to a major quake. Unfortunately, he says, there’s no real way to predict this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get those earthquake kits ready\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The takeaway here is probably already clear; Burgmann says small quakes are a good signal to get prepared — that whenever we have one, it boosts the probability of another occurring within a week by about 10 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Essentially what that means for people is whenever you feel an earthquake, that’s a good time to check on your earthquake kit.” Burgmann says. “It shouldn’t be a cause for true alarm, but it should be a reason to reassess.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for what it’s worth: Burgmann muses that after years of studying the fault, a recent series of small shakers on the Hayward finally prompted him to buy earthquake insurance himself.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED Science Editor Craig Miller contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published in January 2019. It is being republished after a magnitude 4.3 earthquake centered near Berkeley rattled the Bay Area on Monday morning. Read more\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12057001/bay-area-earthquake-was-near-fault-thats-overdue-for-intense-quake\"> here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On two straight mornings in January 2019, residents awoke to the familiar rock and roll from a\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11718873/another-morning-another-wake-up-quake-in-the-east-bay-hills\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> cluster of relatively small earthquakes\u003c/a> along the Hayward Fault, across the bay from San Francisco. It’s not the first time, nor will it be the last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While neither the magnitude 3.4 nor 3.5 quakes broke the seismograph, the two events struck in essentially the same spot. Both had epicenters nestled in the Oakland-Berkeley Hills, just a few miles from the UC Berkeley campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such cluster quakes always get people wondering if they mean more than the usual random jiggling. To get a read on this, we spoke to earthquake experts with UC Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/blog/2015/10/13/weak-stresses-strong-earthquakes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seismology Lab\u003c/a> about what it means, if anything, when it comes to forecasting the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Peggy Hellweg with UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab, there’s minor earthquake activity occurring almost continuously along the Hayward Fault, though most of it goes unnoticed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And while January’s “felt quakes” were reported as individual events, they can be thought of as belonging to the same sequence of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would actually group them together since they’re so close together on the fault and call one the foreshock, and then the one from Thursday morning, the main shock,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Kind of Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trouble with terms like “foreshock” and “aftershock” is that scientists never know how to categorize one or the other until after the shaking settles down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hellweg says she wouldn’t have been surprised to see tiny quakes or even another of similar size in the days following to finish out the sequence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you look at the history of earthquakes along this section of the Hayward Fault, there can be from one to four earthquakes felt by the people who live here,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What do minor “felt quakes” foretell about the likelihood of the next Big One hitting the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Short answer: There’s no way to know for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, Hellweg says, in the last 20 to 30 years, “no big earthquake has happened on the Hayward Fault associated with one of these little sequences of earthquakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here’s the bad news: pressure has been building up on the Hayward Fault. It’s been more than 150 years since the\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> last major earthquake\u003c/a> to rattle the fault, which stretches through the most \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/\">densely populated\u003c/a> stretch of the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geological studies put the average interval between big quakes on the Hayward Fault at about 140 years, give or take 50 years. Meaning the Big One could happen any day now or not in the lifetime of many middle-aged residents. Scientists who developed the \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">HayWired\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> modeling scenario\u003c/a> estimate that there’s about a one-in-three chance of a magnitude-7 quake on the Hayward within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here’s the other bad news: the oft-repeated idea that minor temblors serve to relieve pressure on the fault and lessen the chances of a major event, is a myth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the question of whether it happens tomorrow, Hellweg says, “Do I expect it? No. Would I be surprised? No.”\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where does that leave the current state of the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reports from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest that damage caused by the next major quake along the Hayward Fault could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-hayward-fault-20180417-htmlstory.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">catastrophic\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What concerns UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann is where recent small quakes occurred on the fault line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re right next to part of the Hayward Fault that — from the kind of research we do here at Berkeley — we know to be the part that’s fully locked,” Burgman says. “That’s the part that, when a really big earthquake — magnitude 7 or so — happens again on the Hayward Fault, it will likely rupture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault lines — or different portions of the same fault — can be classified as \u003ca href=\"https://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/quaternary/stories/hayward_creep.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">locked or creeping\u003c/a>. Creeping faults shift slowly over time, and may undergo smaller quakes like the ones observed this week. Locked faults, however, don’t move, causing pressure to build until a large-magnitude earthquake releases it. The Hayward Fault is considered a mixed fault line, with sections that creep and ones that don’t. The ones that don’t pose the biggest danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This [latest] pair of events is small, but they’re right next to the sleeping beast of the Hayward Fault that we know is essentially ready to have a big earthquake today or in a couple of decades.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The danger, according to Burgmann, is that a cluster of small quakes adjacent to the locked portion of the fault could be “possible foreshocks” to a major quake. Unfortunately, he says, there’s no real way to predict this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get those earthquake kits ready\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The takeaway here is probably already clear; Burgmann says small quakes are a good signal to get prepared — that whenever we have one, it boosts the probability of another occurring within a week by about 10 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Essentially what that means for people is whenever you feel an earthquake, that’s a good time to check on your earthquake kit.” Burgmann says. “It shouldn’t be a cause for true alarm, but it should be a reason to reassess.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for what it’s worth: Burgmann muses that after years of studying the fault, a recent series of small shakers on the Hayward finally prompted him to buy earthquake insurance himself.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED Science Editor Craig Miller contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/berkeley\">Berkeley\u003c/a>’s roadways don’t have the capacity for large-scale evacuation and, as a result, fleeing from the hills during a wildfire could take longer than four hours, according to a new study commissioned by the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://berkeleyca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Evacuation%20Time%20Study.pdf\">The study conducted by KLD Associates mapped evacuation patterns\u003c/a> and simulated escape times based on a repeat of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleypubliclibrary.org/sites/default/files/files/inline/bplhstrm_979.467_st76_the_story_of_the_berkeley_fire.pdf\">1923 Berkeley Fire\u003c/a>, which burned north of the UC Berkeley campus, destroying over 600 structures and displacing thousands of residents. Depending on where a fire ignites, researchers identified specific chokepoints on busy intersections and freeway onramps, where cars would likely gridlock in an urgent evacuation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The streets were built a long time ago,” said Keith May, deputy fire chief of the Berkeley Fire Department. “So the road capacity is tight already. And then when you factor in evacuating residents out and also getting emergency vehicles in to fight the fire or to do evacuations, that’s a tight network.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12020808/as-la-fires-rage-harrowing-evacuations-play-out-on-traffic-choked-roads\">Harrowing evacuations through traffic-choked roads\u003c/a> are unfortunately common in California, with its many hillside communities that often only have one or a handful of roads in and out. That has led to some of the state’s most deadly fires, including the Camp Fire, when over 25,000 Paradise residents attempted to evacuate the area only to get caught in a massive traffic jam. Eighty-five people were killed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Berkeley study also estimated how long it would take residents to evacuate during large-scale tsunamis, which exceeded two hours for residents fleeing low-lying coastal areas in the middle of the day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1997999\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1997999\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fire warning signs in the Berkeley and Oakland Hills. \u003ccite>(Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the case of both wildfires and tsunamis, the report emphasized the need for residents to evacuate as early as possible.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Leave early if you can,” May said. He suggested residents leave the hills even before a fire ignites on red flag days. “Just get out of the hills so you’re not part of that evacuation problem. The less cars on the roadway, the faster the evacuation time will go.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The evacuation times laid out in the study could be a dramatic underestimate, according to Stanford wildfire researcher Michael Wara, who was not involved in the Berkeley study.[aside postID=news_12035866 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/04/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-04-KQED-1020x680.jpg']“I would interpret this study as an absolute minimum on the evacuation time,” he said. “I would say this is the floor, and in reality, things would be worse.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because researchers only took into consideration the outflow of traffic from the hills, Wara said, and not the inflow of emergency response vehicles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you pretend in your model that the fire trucks aren’t there, you’re gonna miss the places where it may be most significant because it’s really hard to get fire trucks up the hill and people down the hill at the same time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Wara said, knowing where the traffic chokepoints will be during a rapid evacuation is critical for getting people out safely. He pointed to the emergency response during the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles earlier this year, including the use of bulldozers to push abandoned vehicles to the sides of the roads.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That was a remarkable display of evacuation preparedness and acumen on the part of the fire department in Los Angeles,” he said. “If those bulldozers had not been prepositioned at the places where the city thought there would be a gridlock, who knows what would have happened?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1998006\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1998006\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home in the Berkeley hills on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Another potentially helpful tool, Wara said, is implementing parking restrictions on certain roadways to open them up as evacuation routes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Mill Valley, for example, parking is limited on certain streets during high fire danger days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley has similar restrictions on the Fourth of July, but May said the city is looking to expand those restrictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now we’re trying to get every one of our county partners in sync with the idea,” he said. “And then we have to socialize it and get it out to the public, because they are the ones that are gonna be directly affected from the enforcement side of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the meantime, May said Berkeley residents should \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/new\">sign up for emergency alerts\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://protect.genasys.com/download\">download the city’s evacuation map\u003c/a> to plan out their routes. He advises familiarizing yourself with your neighborhood and having at least two different evacuation routes in mind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city will also hold \u003ca href=\"https://berkeleyca.gov/community-recreation/news/study-stresses-need-household-fire-and-evacuation-plans\">a series of workshops\u003c/a> beginning in August for residents to get help in their evacuation preparations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/berkeley\">Berkeley\u003c/a>’s roadways don’t have the capacity for large-scale evacuation and, as a result, fleeing from the hills during a wildfire could take longer than four hours, according to a new study commissioned by the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://berkeleyca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Evacuation%20Time%20Study.pdf\">The study conducted by KLD Associates mapped evacuation patterns\u003c/a> and simulated escape times based on a repeat of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleypubliclibrary.org/sites/default/files/files/inline/bplhstrm_979.467_st76_the_story_of_the_berkeley_fire.pdf\">1923 Berkeley Fire\u003c/a>, which burned north of the UC Berkeley campus, destroying over 600 structures and displacing thousands of residents. Depending on where a fire ignites, researchers identified specific chokepoints on busy intersections and freeway onramps, where cars would likely gridlock in an urgent evacuation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The streets were built a long time ago,” said Keith May, deputy fire chief of the Berkeley Fire Department. “So the road capacity is tight already. And then when you factor in evacuating residents out and also getting emergency vehicles in to fight the fire or to do evacuations, that’s a tight network.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12020808/as-la-fires-rage-harrowing-evacuations-play-out-on-traffic-choked-roads\">Harrowing evacuations through traffic-choked roads\u003c/a> are unfortunately common in California, with its many hillside communities that often only have one or a handful of roads in and out. That has led to some of the state’s most deadly fires, including the Camp Fire, when over 25,000 Paradise residents attempted to evacuate the area only to get caught in a massive traffic jam. Eighty-five people were killed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Berkeley study also estimated how long it would take residents to evacuate during large-scale tsunamis, which exceeded two hours for residents fleeing low-lying coastal areas in the middle of the day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1997999\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1997999\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/drought_3_140115-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fire warning signs in the Berkeley and Oakland Hills. \u003ccite>(Mark Andrew Boyer/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the case of both wildfires and tsunamis, the report emphasized the need for residents to evacuate as early as possible.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Leave early if you can,” May said. He suggested residents leave the hills even before a fire ignites on red flag days. “Just get out of the hills so you’re not part of that evacuation problem. The less cars on the roadway, the faster the evacuation time will go.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The evacuation times laid out in the study could be a dramatic underestimate, according to Stanford wildfire researcher Michael Wara, who was not involved in the Berkeley study.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“I would interpret this study as an absolute minimum on the evacuation time,” he said. “I would say this is the floor, and in reality, things would be worse.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because researchers only took into consideration the outflow of traffic from the hills, Wara said, and not the inflow of emergency response vehicles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you pretend in your model that the fire trucks aren’t there, you’re gonna miss the places where it may be most significant because it’s really hard to get fire trucks up the hill and people down the hill at the same time,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Wara said, knowing where the traffic chokepoints will be during a rapid evacuation is critical for getting people out safely. He pointed to the emergency response during the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles earlier this year, including the use of bulldozers to push abandoned vehicles to the sides of the roads.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That was a remarkable display of evacuation preparedness and acumen on the part of the fire department in Los Angeles,” he said. “If those bulldozers had not been prepositioned at the places where the city thought there would be a gridlock, who knows what would have happened?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1998006\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1998006\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/250415-BERKELEY-PLANTS-MD-03_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A home in the Berkeley hills on April 15, 2025. \u003ccite>(Martin do Nascimento/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Another potentially helpful tool, Wara said, is implementing parking restrictions on certain roadways to open them up as evacuation routes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Mill Valley, for example, parking is limited on certain streets during high fire danger days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Berkeley has similar restrictions on the Fourth of July, but May said the city is looking to expand those restrictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now we’re trying to get every one of our county partners in sync with the idea,” he said. “And then we have to socialize it and get it out to the public, because they are the ones that are gonna be directly affected from the enforcement side of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the meantime, May said Berkeley residents should \u003ca href=\"https://member.everbridge.net/453003085612570/new\">sign up for emergency alerts\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://protect.genasys.com/download\">download the city’s evacuation map\u003c/a> to plan out their routes. He advises familiarizing yourself with your neighborhood and having at least two different evacuation routes in mind.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city will also hold \u003ca href=\"https://berkeleyca.gov/community-recreation/news/study-stresses-need-household-fire-and-evacuation-plans\">a series of workshops\u003c/a> beginning in August for residents to get help in their evacuation preparations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Tsunami Advisory Canceled for Bay Area and Central Coast, With No Damage So Far",
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"content": "\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated 11:53 a.m. Wednesday\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12032295/how-to-prepare-for-a-tsunami-emergency-warning-california\">tsunami advisory\u003c/a> that was in effect for the Bay Area and Central Coast was canceled Wednesday morning after a massive earthquake Tuesday night off the eastern coast of Russia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Waves began hitting the Bay Area coastline around 1 a.m., though they were far from damaging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For most of the Bay Area coast, the tsunami has led to waves up to a foot higher. Areas like Point Reyes in Marin County and Port San Luis in San Luis Obispo County have seen significant waves so far, and the tsunami advisory remains in effect for parts of the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are no reports of damage along Bay Area coastlines. Although the \u003ca href=\"https://www.tsunami.gov/\">tsunami advisory\u003c/a> was canceled for the region around 11 a.m., officials warned that fluctuating water levels would continue to make the ocean “dynamic and dangerous,” with possible strong currents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The highest that we’ve seen so far has come a few hours after the initial waves,” said Dalton Behringer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office. “So, with tsunami waves, we can see the wave energy actually build for several hours after the initial waves and then dissipate.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tsunamis are not single waves but a series of waves carrying a large amount of water, according to the NWS. Emergency officials like those in San Francisco warned people to stay out of the water and move away from all beaches, docks and piers.[aside postID=news_12032295 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/01/OceanBeachTedG.jpeg']Wednesday’s waves “hit Monterey Bay first and then lagged behind a little bit into the San Francisco Bay Area,” Behringer said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farther north, officials are keeping a close eye on Crescent City in Del Norte County. A tsunami warning, indicating the possibility of dangerous coastal flooding and powerful currents, was in effect there before being downgraded to an advisory Wednesday morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve recorded wave heights of 3.5 to almost 4 feet in Crescent City,” said Danny Schmiegel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Eureka. “So they’ve been coming in, and the periods between those waves are quite long as well, within multiple hours apart from each other.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crescent City has historically been \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/19627/1964-a-distant-quake-a-disastrous-california-tsunami\">vulnerable to tsunamis\u003c/a>. Dozens of boats were destroyed following a tsunami from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/15192/three-years-after-disaster-crescent-city-sports-a-new-tsunami-resistant-harbor\">devastating Japan earthquake\u003c/a> in 2011. This time, they were prepared, Schmiegel said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We were able to let folks know who had boats and had that kind of investment in that area to get their boats out to a depth of 180 feet, which at that point the tsunami will just pass under them with no harm,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/jservantez\">\u003cem>Jared Servantez\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem> contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "A tsunami advisory remains in effect for the entire Bay Area coast and other coastal areas in California after a massive earthquake off the eastern coast of Russia.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cem>Updated 11:53 a.m. Wednesday\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12032295/how-to-prepare-for-a-tsunami-emergency-warning-california\">tsunami advisory\u003c/a> that was in effect for the Bay Area and Central Coast was canceled Wednesday morning after a massive earthquake Tuesday night off the eastern coast of Russia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Waves began hitting the Bay Area coastline around 1 a.m., though they were far from damaging.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For most of the Bay Area coast, the tsunami has led to waves up to a foot higher. Areas like Point Reyes in Marin County and Port San Luis in San Luis Obispo County have seen significant waves so far, and the tsunami advisory remains in effect for parts of the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are no reports of damage along Bay Area coastlines. Although the \u003ca href=\"https://www.tsunami.gov/\">tsunami advisory\u003c/a> was canceled for the region around 11 a.m., officials warned that fluctuating water levels would continue to make the ocean “dynamic and dangerous,” with possible strong currents.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The highest that we’ve seen so far has come a few hours after the initial waves,” said Dalton Behringer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office. “So, with tsunami waves, we can see the wave energy actually build for several hours after the initial waves and then dissipate.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tsunamis are not single waves but a series of waves carrying a large amount of water, according to the NWS. Emergency officials like those in San Francisco warned people to stay out of the water and move away from all beaches, docks and piers.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Wednesday’s waves “hit Monterey Bay first and then lagged behind a little bit into the San Francisco Bay Area,” Behringer said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farther north, officials are keeping a close eye on Crescent City in Del Norte County. A tsunami warning, indicating the possibility of dangerous coastal flooding and powerful currents, was in effect there before being downgraded to an advisory Wednesday morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’ve recorded wave heights of 3.5 to almost 4 feet in Crescent City,” said Danny Schmiegel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Eureka. “So they’ve been coming in, and the periods between those waves are quite long as well, within multiple hours apart from each other.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Crescent City has historically been \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/19627/1964-a-distant-quake-a-disastrous-california-tsunami\">vulnerable to tsunamis\u003c/a>. Dozens of boats were destroyed following a tsunami from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/15192/three-years-after-disaster-crescent-city-sports-a-new-tsunami-resistant-harbor\">devastating Japan earthquake\u003c/a> in 2011. This time, they were prepared, Schmiegel said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We were able to let folks know who had boats and had that kind of investment in that area to get their boats out to a depth of 180 feet, which at that point the tsunami will just pass under them with no harm,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED’s \u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/author/jservantez\">\u003cem>Jared Servantez\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem> contributed to this report.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "california-could-flood-like-texas-but-thunderstorms-likely-wont-be-to-blame",
"title": "California Could Flood Like Texas. But Thunderstorms Likely Won’t Be to Blame",
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"headTitle": "California Could Flood Like Texas. But Thunderstorms Likely Won’t Be to Blame | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cp>A major thunderstorm like the one that produced devastating flash flooding in Texas over the holiday weekend is not likely in the Bay Area or most of California, but climate scientists say that if the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">perfect weather\u003c/a> at the right time of year and geography align, serious flooding can still wreak havoc here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are several significant differences between the recent deluge in Texas, which has killed \u003ca href=\"https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2025-07-07/texas-floods-deaths-guadalupe-river-flooding\">more than 100 people\u003c/a>, and the type of flooding that happens in California. First, in the Golden State, it’s the cold winter months that bring flooding, often from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12025352/atmospheric-rivers-deliver-strong-bay-area-rain-sierra-snow\">back-to-back atmospheric river storms\u003c/a>. The instability caused by these rainstorms, which douse the region in water, can generate thunderstorms of varying intensity and trigger flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California typically doesn’t experience massive warm summertime storms because of its Mediterranean climate. The disastrous Texas flooding is a reminder that the ferocity of Mother Nature isn’t always predictable. As the climate continues to warm, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">resulting in wetter storms\u003c/a>, Californians living near waterways need to be prepared for more extreme weather events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When California floods in the winter, there’s always the possibility of a deadly event depending on where a storm makes landfall. For instance, last November, an atmospheric river parked over the North Bay, causing localized flooding, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12015534/bay-area-record-breaking-rainfall-deluge-surprises-forecasters\">killing two in Santa Rosa\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The magnitude of the severity of the flooding absolutely could happen in California, and it is the kind of flooding that we are very concerned about,” said Daniel Swain, a UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist. “But the physical meteorology involved would be very different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How weather messaging works\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In Texas, the National Weather Service issued multiple warnings, including its highest level of alert for once-in-a-generation flooding, Swain said. However, the timing of some of the alerts — in the middle of the night — and the regularity of the warnings may have caused people to either miss them or not take them seriously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jay Lund, professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis, likened the immediacy of flash floods to earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1970392\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1970392\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/10/napa-earthquake-scaled-e1602798338426.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1294\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pedestrian walks by a mobile home that shifted off its foundation at a mobile home park following a reported 6.0 earthquake on Aug. 24, 2014, in Napa, California. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“They happen right away and with almost no warning,” he said. “You have to have an excellent warning system because if it happens in the middle of the night, most people aren’t going to hear it because they’ll be asleep.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With the Bay Area’s diverse microclimates, it’s challenging for meteorologists to precisely predict where an atmospheric river will drop the most rain. However, forecasters will alert the public to the possibility of flash flooding and update their messaging as new information becomes available. The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office has issued flash flood warnings for San Francisco during atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For urban areas like San Francisco, if we’re getting 1 to 3 inches an hour rain rates, we can pile up water very fast because that overwhelms storm drains and can cause some pretty significant localized flooding,” said Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service’s Bay Area office.[aside postID=science_1997565 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/GavinNewsomGetty.jpg']Like in Kerr County in Texas, most California localities don’t use sirens to alert the public about flooding, “because our flooding kind of builds and we can see what is coming in,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said. However, some do, like the Marin County communities of Fairfax, Ross and San Anselmo, which \u003ca href=\"https://rossvalleyfire.org/services/creek-levels-weather#:~:text=San%20Anselmo%20Flood%20Horn,sound%20or%20maintain%20the%20horn.\">maintain flood horns or sirens\u003c/a> that they sound when flooding is imminent. \u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: line-through\">\u003cbr>\n\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\nCalifornia relies heavily on the weather service for messaging about potential flooding from storms. For instance, last December, San Franciscans were startled awake by a blaring weather alert on their phones warning them of a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018477/why-did-sf-get-tornado-warning-but-not-scotts-valley-where-twister-hit\">potential tornado\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to flooding, the weather service issues watches, warnings and advisories. Flash flood warnings also have three different levels, ranging from the base level to catastrophic. Beyond the alerts, the weather service leans on traditional radio broadcasts, local authorities and news outlets to get the word out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Garcia said the difference between a warning and an advisory is that a warning suggests “there could be trouble,” but an advisory means “the trouble is coming to you.” He recommends that all Bay Area residents sign up for text emergency alerts at \u003ca href=\"http://alertthebay.org\">alertthebay.org\u003c/a> and pay attention to any “action statements” within the message.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the action statement says something like get to high ground immediately, that is a cue to take immediate action,” Garcia said. “Whether it’s moving to higher floors, going to the top of a hill, or moving yourself to higher ground.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Flooding from thunderstorms is possible in California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>What distinguishes the Bay Area’s localized flash flooding events from those in Texas is the duration of the atmospheric river, its geographic location and the level of wetness in the system. Atmospheric rivers in California can last for days and arrive in a succession train, while thunderstorms last for a few hours at most.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Texas can get these systems that consist of thunderstorms that don’t move very much over a period of time, producing an enormous amount of rainfall,” said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University. “That’s different from the kind of flooding that happens when the Russian River floods, maybe once every two or three years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1980754\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1980754\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A kayaker in a red boat paddles down a flooded street alongside shops.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1281\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Sebastopol resident encounters fellow paddlers in a canoe as he paddles in the floodwaters surrounding the market district, The Barlow, after the Russian River crested its banks on Feb. 28, 2019, in Sebastopol, California. \u003ccite>(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still, a big flash-flood-producing thunderstorm in California isn’t entirely out of the picture and can occur during the summertime in the Sierra Nevada or the deserts across the southeastern part of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kind of thing that happened in Texas could also happen in California,” said Nicholas Pinter, associate director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences. “Anyone out hiking in confined, rugged topography needs to be aware that we have this risk of flash flooding in California, kind of similar to Texas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the Texas thunderstorm covering a broad geographic area and producing a wall of water is “not typical of California,” the “wettest precipitation events are getting wetter” and in turn elevating flood risk, which is in line with the effects of human-caused climate change on storms in both states, said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University.[aside postID=news_12046061 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2025/06/Tahoe1.jpg']“We know we’re in a climate where the kind of intense precipitation that leads to flooding is more likely overall for a given storm,” he said. “Our infrastructure in many cases was not designed and built for the most intense conditions that are now occurring.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has experienced numerous wet years that resulted in flooding, including the Great Flood of 1862 and other extreme events in 1955, 1964, 1986 and 1997, as well as more recent occurrences such as 2017 and 2023.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a major flood to occur anywhere in California, a specific set of ingredients — geographic location, soil moisture and storm intensity — is required, according to Anderson, the state climatologist. He pointed to the winter of 2023, when nine atmospheric rivers hit the state over 18 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s almost one every other day, and that led to substantial flooding across the state,” he said. “So, what we look for is different than what Texas has to look out for\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The primary issue is that during a series of winter storms, the soil across the region can become oversaturated, leading to flooding in Santa Rosa, the Russian River watershed, and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994168/the-pajaro-flood-forced-them-to-flee-californias-high-rents-forced-them-to-return\">Pajaro Valley\u003c/a>, among other areas. Last November, a weeklong atmospheric river “embedded with thunderstorms” hammered parts of the Russian River watershed with “40% of [its] annual rainfall out of that one storm,” Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1997638\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1997638\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Camp Mystic stands next to a creek that feeds into the Guadalupe River, on Monday, July 7, 2025, in Hunt, Texas, after flash flooding swept through the area. \u003ccite>(Eli Hartman/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Wildfire-scorched areas are also susceptible to flooding during atmospheric rivers or heavy rains that fall during a monsoon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fire creates a hydrophobic layer on the soil that magnifies the impact of flooding because the water cannot infiltrate it,” said Anna Serra-Llobet, a researcher at the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Serra-Llobet said she worries about flooding next winter across wildfire burn scars, especially in Southern California and the Sierra Nevada, as those areas will be primed for flash floods full of ash and debris. In the case of the Los Angeles fires, those floodwaters could hit urban areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said there needs to be more public outreach on how to respond during a flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People don’t understand the risk where they live, and I think we need more drills to be more prepared,” she said. “Creating a risk culture could help many communities to be more proactive and effective in acting during a disaster.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Deadly floods like Texas’ are rare in California, but climate change-fueled storms could make them more likely, climate scientists say — even in the Bay Area.\r\n",
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"title": "California Could Flood Like Texas. But Thunderstorms Likely Won’t Be to Blame | KQED",
"description": "Deadly floods like Texas’ are rare in California, but climate change-fueled storms could make them more likely, climate scientists say — even in the Bay Area.\r\n",
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"headline": "California Could Flood Like Texas. But Thunderstorms Likely Won’t Be to Blame",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A major thunderstorm like the one that produced devastating flash flooding in Texas over the holiday weekend is not likely in the Bay Area or most of California, but climate scientists say that if the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">perfect weather\u003c/a> at the right time of year and geography align, serious flooding can still wreak havoc here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are several significant differences between the recent deluge in Texas, which has killed \u003ca href=\"https://www.keranews.org/texas-news/2025-07-07/texas-floods-deaths-guadalupe-river-flooding\">more than 100 people\u003c/a>, and the type of flooding that happens in California. First, in the Golden State, it’s the cold winter months that bring flooding, often from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12025352/atmospheric-rivers-deliver-strong-bay-area-rain-sierra-snow\">back-to-back atmospheric river storms\u003c/a>. The instability caused by these rainstorms, which douse the region in water, can generate thunderstorms of varying intensity and trigger flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California typically doesn’t experience massive warm summertime storms because of its Mediterranean climate. The disastrous Texas flooding is a reminder that the ferocity of Mother Nature isn’t always predictable. As the climate continues to warm, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">resulting in wetter storms\u003c/a>, Californians living near waterways need to be prepared for more extreme weather events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When California floods in the winter, there’s always the possibility of a deadly event depending on where a storm makes landfall. For instance, last November, an atmospheric river parked over the North Bay, causing localized flooding, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12015534/bay-area-record-breaking-rainfall-deluge-surprises-forecasters\">killing two in Santa Rosa\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The magnitude of the severity of the flooding absolutely could happen in California, and it is the kind of flooding that we are very concerned about,” said Daniel Swain, a UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist. “But the physical meteorology involved would be very different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How weather messaging works\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In Texas, the National Weather Service issued multiple warnings, including its highest level of alert for once-in-a-generation flooding, Swain said. However, the timing of some of the alerts — in the middle of the night — and the regularity of the warnings may have caused people to either miss them or not take them seriously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jay Lund, professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis, likened the immediacy of flash floods to earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1970392\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1970392\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2020/10/napa-earthquake-scaled-e1602798338426.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1294\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A pedestrian walks by a mobile home that shifted off its foundation at a mobile home park following a reported 6.0 earthquake on Aug. 24, 2014, in Napa, California. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“They happen right away and with almost no warning,” he said. “You have to have an excellent warning system because if it happens in the middle of the night, most people aren’t going to hear it because they’ll be asleep.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With the Bay Area’s diverse microclimates, it’s challenging for meteorologists to precisely predict where an atmospheric river will drop the most rain. However, forecasters will alert the public to the possibility of flash flooding and update their messaging as new information becomes available. The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office has issued flash flood warnings for San Francisco during atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For urban areas like San Francisco, if we’re getting 1 to 3 inches an hour rain rates, we can pile up water very fast because that overwhelms storm drains and can cause some pretty significant localized flooding,” said Brian Garcia, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Like in Kerr County in Texas, most California localities don’t use sirens to alert the public about flooding, “because our flooding kind of builds and we can see what is coming in,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said. However, some do, like the Marin County communities of Fairfax, Ross and San Anselmo, which \u003ca href=\"https://rossvalleyfire.org/services/creek-levels-weather#:~:text=San%20Anselmo%20Flood%20Horn,sound%20or%20maintain%20the%20horn.\">maintain flood horns or sirens\u003c/a> that they sound when flooding is imminent. \u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: line-through\">\u003cbr>\n\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\nCalifornia relies heavily on the weather service for messaging about potential flooding from storms. For instance, last December, San Franciscans were startled awake by a blaring weather alert on their phones warning them of a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018477/why-did-sf-get-tornado-warning-but-not-scotts-valley-where-twister-hit\">potential tornado\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When it comes to flooding, the weather service issues watches, warnings and advisories. Flash flood warnings also have three different levels, ranging from the base level to catastrophic. Beyond the alerts, the weather service leans on traditional radio broadcasts, local authorities and news outlets to get the word out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Garcia said the difference between a warning and an advisory is that a warning suggests “there could be trouble,” but an advisory means “the trouble is coming to you.” He recommends that all Bay Area residents sign up for text emergency alerts at \u003ca href=\"http://alertthebay.org\">alertthebay.org\u003c/a> and pay attention to any “action statements” within the message.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the action statement says something like get to high ground immediately, that is a cue to take immediate action,” Garcia said. “Whether it’s moving to higher floors, going to the top of a hill, or moving yourself to higher ground.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Flooding from thunderstorms is possible in California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>What distinguishes the Bay Area’s localized flash flooding events from those in Texas is the duration of the atmospheric river, its geographic location and the level of wetness in the system. Atmospheric rivers in California can last for days and arrive in a succession train, while thunderstorms last for a few hours at most.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Texas can get these systems that consist of thunderstorms that don’t move very much over a period of time, producing an enormous amount of rainfall,” said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University. “That’s different from the kind of flooding that happens when the Russian River floods, maybe once every two or three years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1980754\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1980754\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A kayaker in a red boat paddles down a flooded street alongside shops.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1281\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-800x534.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-1020x681.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/11/RS59853_GettyImages-1128158019-qut-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Sebastopol resident encounters fellow paddlers in a canoe as he paddles in the floodwaters surrounding the market district, The Barlow, after the Russian River crested its banks on Feb. 28, 2019, in Sebastopol, California. \u003ccite>(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Still, a big flash-flood-producing thunderstorm in California isn’t entirely out of the picture and can occur during the summertime in the Sierra Nevada or the deserts across the southeastern part of the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kind of thing that happened in Texas could also happen in California,” said Nicholas Pinter, associate director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences. “Anyone out hiking in confined, rugged topography needs to be aware that we have this risk of flash flooding in California, kind of similar to Texas.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the Texas thunderstorm covering a broad geographic area and producing a wall of water is “not typical of California,” the “wettest precipitation events are getting wetter” and in turn elevating flood risk, which is in line with the effects of human-caused climate change on storms in both states, said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“We know we’re in a climate where the kind of intense precipitation that leads to flooding is more likely overall for a given storm,” he said. “Our infrastructure in many cases was not designed and built for the most intense conditions that are now occurring.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California has experienced numerous wet years that resulted in flooding, including the Great Flood of 1862 and other extreme events in 1955, 1964, 1986 and 1997, as well as more recent occurrences such as 2017 and 2023.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a major flood to occur anywhere in California, a specific set of ingredients — geographic location, soil moisture and storm intensity — is required, according to Anderson, the state climatologist. He pointed to the winter of 2023, when nine atmospheric rivers hit the state over 18 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s almost one every other day, and that led to substantial flooding across the state,” he said. “So, what we look for is different than what Texas has to look out for\u003cem>.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The primary issue is that during a series of winter storms, the soil across the region can become oversaturated, leading to flooding in Santa Rosa, the Russian River watershed, and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1994168/the-pajaro-flood-forced-them-to-flee-californias-high-rents-forced-them-to-return\">Pajaro Valley\u003c/a>, among other areas. Last November, a weeklong atmospheric river “embedded with thunderstorms” hammered parts of the Russian River watershed with “40% of [its] annual rainfall out of that one storm,” Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1997638\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1997638\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/07/CampMysticAP1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Camp Mystic stands next to a creek that feeds into the Guadalupe River, on Monday, July 7, 2025, in Hunt, Texas, after flash flooding swept through the area. \u003ccite>(Eli Hartman/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Wildfire-scorched areas are also susceptible to flooding during atmospheric rivers or heavy rains that fall during a monsoon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fire creates a hydrophobic layer on the soil that magnifies the impact of flooding because the water cannot infiltrate it,” said Anna Serra-Llobet, a researcher at the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Serra-Llobet said she worries about flooding next winter across wildfire burn scars, especially in Southern California and the Sierra Nevada, as those areas will be primed for flash floods full of ash and debris. In the case of the Los Angeles fires, those floodwaters could hit urban areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said there needs to be more public outreach on how to respond during a flood.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People don’t understand the risk where they live, and I think we need more drills to be more prepared,” she said. “Creating a risk culture could help many communities to be more proactive and effective in acting during a disaster.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Nearly 200 aftershocks have rattled Northern California since a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Humboldt County on Thursday morning, \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000nw7b/executive\">according to the U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And experts say more aftershocks are likely. But that’s par for the course — especially in this region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is we live in earthquake country,” said Robert de Groot, operations coordinator of \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, an earthquake early warning system operated by the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Continued aftershocks of 3.0 or 4.0 magnitude are more than 99% and 98% certain, respectively, for at least the next week, according to de Groot.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The chances of earthquakes from this event begin to dwindle over time and they decrease in terms of number,” he said, noting that larger aftershocks are unlikely. There’s only about a 5% chance that anything nearing a 6.0 magnitude aftershock could happen, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The epicenter of the initial 7.0 temblor which struck at 10:44 a.m. about 40 miles off the Humboldt coast, is on the active Mendocino Fault, where the Pacific, Juan de Fuca and North American tectonic plates meet — and where the San Andreas Fault ends.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-8OXaW\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Northern California magnitude 7.0 earthquake intensity\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8OXaW/4/\" height=\"544\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Locator map\" data-external=\"1\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cscript type=\"text/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\u003c/script>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The earthquake prompted a tsunami warning that reached more than 5 million people, \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWS_NTWC/status/1864746520924618813\">from Southern Oregon to Santa Cruz County\u003c/a>. The warning, which was canceled just over an hour later, prompted BART to temporarily stop service in the Transbay Tube and drove thousands of Northern California residents to temporarily evacuate in search of higher ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three minutes later, a 4.1 magnitude earthquake hit near Lake and Sonoma counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The ShakeAlert system alerted around 4.5 million people, some as far as Salinas in Monterey County, de Groot said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>De Groot said aftershocks are not likely to happen along the San Andreas Fault — which extends some 750 miles south through California — because they typically happen closer to the epicenter of the initial earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Think of it as parts of that fault that didn't move quite as far as it should’ve, so it’s not like you’re going to have earthquakes in this region and all of a sudden have an earthquake that’s down in Hayward or in Berkeley,” he said. “That’s way too far away.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12017174\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12017174 size-medium\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-800x485.png\" alt=\"A map of earthquakes and faultlines.\" width=\"800\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-800x485.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-1020x618.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-160x97.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-1536x931.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM.png 1746w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftershocks since a 7.0 magnitude 7.0 earthquake (orange) struck off the coast of Humboldt County at 10:44 a.m. Thursday. Fault lines are marked in red. Source: USGS \u003ccite>(Matthew Green/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But Roland Bürgmann, a geophysics professor at UC Berkeley, says it’s still important to keep an eye on the San Andreas Fault right now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The San Andreas Fault ends right where the aftershocks end from this last event,” said Bürgmann, emphasizing that the location of the earthquake's epicenter remains “very active.” “So that means the San Andreas Fault is feeling a lot of pressure right now. It got a lot of shaking and changes and stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Justin Rubinstein, a research geophysicist with the USGS, said the agency creates forecasts that estimate the probabilities of certain magnitude aftershocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, he says, the probability of at least one aftershock with a magnitude of 5.0 over the next week is 35%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think we can certainly expect aftershocks to last for weeks or months,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Nearly 200 aftershocks have rattled Northern California since a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Humboldt County on Thursday morning, and experts say to expect more.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Nearly 200 aftershocks have rattled Northern California since a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Humboldt County on Thursday morning, \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000nw7b/executive\">according to the U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And experts say more aftershocks are likely. But that’s par for the course — especially in this region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The bottom line is we live in earthquake country,” said Robert de Groot, operations coordinator of \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, an earthquake early warning system operated by the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Continued aftershocks of 3.0 or 4.0 magnitude are more than 99% and 98% certain, respectively, for at least the next week, according to de Groot.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The chances of earthquakes from this event begin to dwindle over time and they decrease in terms of number,” he said, noting that larger aftershocks are unlikely. There’s only about a 5% chance that anything nearing a 6.0 magnitude aftershock could happen, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The epicenter of the initial 7.0 temblor which struck at 10:44 a.m. about 40 miles off the Humboldt coast, is on the active Mendocino Fault, where the Pacific, Juan de Fuca and North American tectonic plates meet — and where the San Andreas Fault ends.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-8OXaW\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Northern California magnitude 7.0 earthquake intensity\" src=\"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8OXaW/4/\" height=\"544\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Locator map\" data-external=\"1\">\u003c/iframe>\u003cscript type=\"text/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\u003c/script>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The earthquake prompted a tsunami warning that reached more than 5 million people, \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/NWS_NTWC/status/1864746520924618813\">from Southern Oregon to Santa Cruz County\u003c/a>. The warning, which was canceled just over an hour later, prompted BART to temporarily stop service in the Transbay Tube and drove thousands of Northern California residents to temporarily evacuate in search of higher ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Three minutes later, a 4.1 magnitude earthquake hit near Lake and Sonoma counties.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The ShakeAlert system alerted around 4.5 million people, some as far as Salinas in Monterey County, de Groot said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>De Groot said aftershocks are not likely to happen along the San Andreas Fault — which extends some 750 miles south through California — because they typically happen closer to the epicenter of the initial earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Think of it as parts of that fault that didn't move quite as far as it should’ve, so it’s not like you’re going to have earthquakes in this region and all of a sudden have an earthquake that’s down in Hayward or in Berkeley,” he said. “That’s way too far away.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12017174\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12017174 size-medium\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-800x485.png\" alt=\"A map of earthquakes and faultlines.\" width=\"800\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-800x485.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-1020x618.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-160x97.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM-1536x931.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Screen-Shot-2024-12-07-at-8.07.16-AM.png 1746w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftershocks since a 7.0 magnitude 7.0 earthquake (orange) struck off the coast of Humboldt County at 10:44 a.m. Thursday. Fault lines are marked in red. Source: USGS \u003ccite>(Matthew Green/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>But Roland Bürgmann, a geophysics professor at UC Berkeley, says it’s still important to keep an eye on the San Andreas Fault right now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The San Andreas Fault ends right where the aftershocks end from this last event,” said Bürgmann, emphasizing that the location of the earthquake's epicenter remains “very active.” “So that means the San Andreas Fault is feeling a lot of pressure right now. It got a lot of shaking and changes and stress.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Justin Rubinstein, a research geophysicist with the USGS, said the agency creates forecasts that estimate the probabilities of certain magnitude aftershocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, he says, the probability of at least one aftershock with a magnitude of 5.0 over the next week is 35%.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think we can certainly expect aftershocks to last for weeks or months,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Q&A: The 'Imperfect Science' Behind Tsunami Warnings",
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"content": "\u003cp>Brian Garcia, a warning coordination meteorologist for the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/national-weather-service\">National Weather Service\u003c/a> based in Monterey, was in the East Bay on Thursday morning when an earthquake alert, then a tsunami alert, hit his phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He rushed to San Francisco’s Office of Emergency Services to confer with officials as they assessed the local threat from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12016827/pair-of-large-earthquakes-rattle-northern-california-and-trigger-tsunami-warning\">a 7.0-magnitude quake\u003c/a> off the coast of Humboldt County. About an hour after the tsunami warning went out, it was canceled — but not before many coastal communities had already started evacuating people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Garcia talked to KQED’s Dan Brekke about the reasons for the dire-sounding advisories issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center in Alaska and what officials hope to learn from the episode.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This interview has been edited for length and clarity. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dan Brekke:\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>So let me ask you about the warning. The warning that went out from NWS Bay Area seemed to use very general but also very alarming language about the potential threat to life and property. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And I wonder if — given the reaction in the city of Berkeley for instance, where the warning prompted mandatory evacuations — was that an appropriate warning to put out there given the history of tsunamis in this part of the coast?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Brian Garcia\u003c/strong>: So the language that’s used in the Wireless Emergency Alert is a prescriptive language that goes out with all the warnings. And when we’re talking [about] \u003ca href=\"https://tsunami.gov/?page=message_definitions\">a warning-level tsunami\u003c/a>, we’re talking 3-plus feet of tsunami amplitude coming in, and in this scenario here, we were looking at an upcoming [high] tide as well — so that had been on top of the already increasing tide. So this definitely could have had some pretty significant consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anytime we’re talking about a warning, we’re talking a threat to life. Whenever we’re telling people to get out of harm’s way, that it’s a threat, immediate threat to their life, we’re not kidding. We don’t want to mince words in these situations. We want to make sure that people have the requisite information to get out of the way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12016885\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12016885\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1332\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1920x1279.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A SFFD firefighter warns surfers in the water to evacuate for a tsunami warning at Ocean Beach in San Francisco on Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024. \u003ccite>(Juliana Yamada/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>To what extent are you dependent on information from the National Tsunami Warning Center in Alaska? \u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>That’s one place I went to myself just to see if they had forecast any particular wave heights, and I never saw that they did.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_12016827 hero='https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/EarthquakeSukeyLewis-1020x765.jpg']\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Tsunami Warning Center is one of our centers under the National Weather Service umbrella, and we are wholly and completely dependent on them. They are the experts when it comes to tsunamis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They are the ones actually, when they issue a tsunami warning, it triggers the Wireless Emergency Alert that hits your phones immediately from their office. So it doesn’t even come to our local office before it hits the Wireless Emergency Alerts across phones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>There was some estimate or projection out there that this event off the coast of Humboldt County could have created a wave height difference that would have been 3 feet above normal. Is that right? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anytime we have a warning-level event, that means that the tsunami amplitude is expected to be 3 feet or above. So today, for example, we were going to have a 5-foot high tide. That would have been our highest tide, but another 3 feet on top of that. So now we have an 8-foot water level compared to that normal mean low or low water datum that’s used for the tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>I’ve been here since the mid-1970s, and of course, with large earthquakes around the Pacific Basin, tsunami warnings happen — they’re not unheard of. I have to say, in all that time, the one time that a perceptible tsunami actually showed up here in the Bay Area was, of course, in March 2011 after the earthquake off northeastern Japan. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>I guess why I’m mentioning this is that when I heard the warnings and saw what the reaction was — the evacuation orders in Berkeley, for instance — I thought they were ridiculous. Am I wrong that the warning was overblown and really not consistent with our actual tsunami history, which includes lots of big earthquakes off of Humboldt County, by the way?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is really an imperfect science in this type of scenario and trying to nail down exactly where it occurred, whether it was on\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthscope-program-2003-2018.org/research/synthesis_workshops/mtjo.html\"> the Gorda Plate or the Cascadia subduction zone\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this event in particular, the earthquake location was close enough to the subduction zone that it created a risk, and we just weren’t willing to take that risk from the Weather Service side to say, “You know what, we’re going to wait and see a little bit more data,” because from that location, the travel time is in tsunami terms negligible to get potentially tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people out of harm’s way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12017096\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12017096\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-800x767.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"767\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-800x767.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1020x978.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-160x153.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1536x1473.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1920x1841.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Marin County’s Daily Independent Journal reported extensive damage to dock facilities and boats in Sausalito and San Rafael after a tsunami generated by the 1964 Alaska earthquake swept into San Francisco Bay. \u003ccite>(Daily Independent Journal/Newspapers.com)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>And so we want to make sure that our emergency management partners across the area can work with our local law enforcement to enact evacuations out of areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I know you’re kind of a buff of the history of tsunamis here, and in \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/centers/alaska-science-center/science/1964-great-alaska-earthquake-and-tsunami\">1964 with the Alaska earthquake and tsunami\u003c/a> we had impacts in bayside Marin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So whenever we think of potential impacts for our friends and family and our residents around the Bay Area, we want to make sure that the information is clear … that they have something that they can say, “OK, there’s a tsunami warning, I’m going to get to high ground,” and they know that it’s only going to be a matter of a couple of hours because of the distance that the tsunami would have to travel in this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, for instance, what ultimately happened was as more data came in, it showed that [the earthquake epicenter] was actually on a strike-slip fault and we became more comfortable with saying that the odds of generating an appreciable tsunami are becoming less and less plausible. And all that is to say we’re always going to err on the side of protection of life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do you have any concern about people going through something like this, seeing that nothing happens, and then that desensitizes them to the danger the next time something like this happens?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yeah, absolutely. There’s always the concern about desensitization to warning-level events. We see that in Tornado Alley when people get so many tornado warnings. The next one there, they’re just ignoring it because all the other ones before haven’t manifested in a tornado at their location. But that doesn’t negate our responsibility to issue the warnings based off the scientific data that we have at that time, and as soon as we know more data, we update that information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What kinds of lessons might forecasters and local officials take from what happened with this warning? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the things that we talk about often internally with the sciences and the response agencies is, you know, these things are now forefront of mind. We have our media partners doing stories on it. We have photos of \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/RobinBuller/status/1864766166465671563\">kids on parking garages\u003c/a>. We’re going to have a lot of after-action reviews and \u003ca href=\"https://www.alertmedia.com/blog/hot-wash/\">hot washes\u003c/a> within these agencies, and we can’t let these events go to waste. We’ve got to look at them and say, “OK, what could I, as a resident of San Francisco or Berkeley or whatever, what could I have done different in this scenario? What do I need to be ready for, for the next one?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, if there’s one thing to learn from this, it’s what we say after every earthquake: Have a plan, have your go bag, have your kit ready to go at a moment’s notice, so that you can be ready for when the next one happens. We live in a dynamic environment. And we need to be ready for anything.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "A meteorologist from the National Weather Service's Bay Area office explains the concerns that triggered this week's dramatic alert. ",
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"title": "Q&A: The 'Imperfect Science' Behind Tsunami Warnings | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Brian Garcia, a warning coordination meteorologist for the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/national-weather-service\">National Weather Service\u003c/a> based in Monterey, was in the East Bay on Thursday morning when an earthquake alert, then a tsunami alert, hit his phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He rushed to San Francisco’s Office of Emergency Services to confer with officials as they assessed the local threat from \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12016827/pair-of-large-earthquakes-rattle-northern-california-and-trigger-tsunami-warning\">a 7.0-magnitude quake\u003c/a> off the coast of Humboldt County. About an hour after the tsunami warning went out, it was canceled — but not before many coastal communities had already started evacuating people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Garcia talked to KQED’s Dan Brekke about the reasons for the dire-sounding advisories issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center in Alaska and what officials hope to learn from the episode.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This interview has been edited for length and clarity. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dan Brekke:\u003c/strong> \u003cstrong>So let me ask you about the warning. The warning that went out from NWS Bay Area seemed to use very general but also very alarming language about the potential threat to life and property. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>And I wonder if — given the reaction in the city of Berkeley for instance, where the warning prompted mandatory evacuations — was that an appropriate warning to put out there given the history of tsunamis in this part of the coast?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Brian Garcia\u003c/strong>: So the language that’s used in the Wireless Emergency Alert is a prescriptive language that goes out with all the warnings. And when we’re talking [about] \u003ca href=\"https://tsunami.gov/?page=message_definitions\">a warning-level tsunami\u003c/a>, we’re talking 3-plus feet of tsunami amplitude coming in, and in this scenario here, we were looking at an upcoming [high] tide as well — so that had been on top of the already increasing tide. So this definitely could have had some pretty significant consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anytime we’re talking about a warning, we’re talking a threat to life. Whenever we’re telling people to get out of harm’s way, that it’s a threat, immediate threat to their life, we’re not kidding. We don’t want to mince words in these situations. We want to make sure that people have the requisite information to get out of the way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12016885\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12016885\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1332\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1020x679.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1536x1023.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/20241205-Tsunami-JY-007-1920x1279.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A SFFD firefighter warns surfers in the water to evacuate for a tsunami warning at Ocean Beach in San Francisco on Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024. \u003ccite>(Juliana Yamada/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>To what extent are you dependent on information from the National Tsunami Warning Center in Alaska? \u003c/strong>\u003cstrong>That’s one place I went to myself just to see if they had forecast any particular wave heights, and I never saw that they did.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Tsunami Warning Center is one of our centers under the National Weather Service umbrella, and we are wholly and completely dependent on them. They are the experts when it comes to tsunamis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They are the ones actually, when they issue a tsunami warning, it triggers the Wireless Emergency Alert that hits your phones immediately from their office. So it doesn’t even come to our local office before it hits the Wireless Emergency Alerts across phones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>There was some estimate or projection out there that this event off the coast of Humboldt County could have created a wave height difference that would have been 3 feet above normal. Is that right? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anytime we have a warning-level event, that means that the tsunami amplitude is expected to be 3 feet or above. So today, for example, we were going to have a 5-foot high tide. That would have been our highest tide, but another 3 feet on top of that. So now we have an 8-foot water level compared to that normal mean low or low water datum that’s used for the tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>I’ve been here since the mid-1970s, and of course, with large earthquakes around the Pacific Basin, tsunami warnings happen — they’re not unheard of. I have to say, in all that time, the one time that a perceptible tsunami actually showed up here in the Bay Area was, of course, in March 2011 after the earthquake off northeastern Japan. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>I guess why I’m mentioning this is that when I heard the warnings and saw what the reaction was — the evacuation orders in Berkeley, for instance — I thought they were ridiculous. Am I wrong that the warning was overblown and really not consistent with our actual tsunami history, which includes lots of big earthquakes off of Humboldt County, by the way?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is really an imperfect science in this type of scenario and trying to nail down exactly where it occurred, whether it was on\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthscope-program-2003-2018.org/research/synthesis_workshops/mtjo.html\"> the Gorda Plate or the Cascadia subduction zone\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this event in particular, the earthquake location was close enough to the subduction zone that it created a risk, and we just weren’t willing to take that risk from the Weather Service side to say, “You know what, we’re going to wait and see a little bit more data,” because from that location, the travel time is in tsunami terms negligible to get potentially tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people out of harm’s way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12017096\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12017096\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-800x767.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"767\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-800x767.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1020x978.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-160x153.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1536x1473.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4-1920x1841.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2024/12/Daily_Independent_Journal_1964_03_30_Page_4.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Marin County’s Daily Independent Journal reported extensive damage to dock facilities and boats in Sausalito and San Rafael after a tsunami generated by the 1964 Alaska earthquake swept into San Francisco Bay. \u003ccite>(Daily Independent Journal/Newspapers.com)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>And so we want to make sure that our emergency management partners across the area can work with our local law enforcement to enact evacuations out of areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I know you’re kind of a buff of the history of tsunamis here, and in \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/centers/alaska-science-center/science/1964-great-alaska-earthquake-and-tsunami\">1964 with the Alaska earthquake and tsunami\u003c/a> we had impacts in bayside Marin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So whenever we think of potential impacts for our friends and family and our residents around the Bay Area, we want to make sure that the information is clear … that they have something that they can say, “OK, there’s a tsunami warning, I’m going to get to high ground,” and they know that it’s only going to be a matter of a couple of hours because of the distance that the tsunami would have to travel in this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today, for instance, what ultimately happened was as more data came in, it showed that [the earthquake epicenter] was actually on a strike-slip fault and we became more comfortable with saying that the odds of generating an appreciable tsunami are becoming less and less plausible. And all that is to say we’re always going to err on the side of protection of life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Do you have any concern about people going through something like this, seeing that nothing happens, and then that desensitizes them to the danger the next time something like this happens?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yeah, absolutely. There’s always the concern about desensitization to warning-level events. We see that in Tornado Alley when people get so many tornado warnings. The next one there, they’re just ignoring it because all the other ones before haven’t manifested in a tornado at their location. But that doesn’t negate our responsibility to issue the warnings based off the scientific data that we have at that time, and as soon as we know more data, we update that information.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What kinds of lessons might forecasters and local officials take from what happened with this warning? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the things that we talk about often internally with the sciences and the response agencies is, you know, these things are now forefront of mind. We have our media partners doing stories on it. We have photos of \u003ca href=\"https://x.com/RobinBuller/status/1864766166465671563\">kids on parking garages\u003c/a>. We’re going to have a lot of after-action reviews and \u003ca href=\"https://www.alertmedia.com/blog/hot-wash/\">hot washes\u003c/a> within these agencies, and we can’t let these events go to waste. We’ve got to look at them and say, “OK, what could I, as a resident of San Francisco or Berkeley or whatever, what could I have done different in this scenario? What do I need to be ready for, for the next one?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, if there’s one thing to learn from this, it’s what we say after every earthquake: Have a plan, have your go bag, have your kit ready to go at a moment’s notice, so that you can be ready for when the next one happens. We live in a dynamic environment. And we need to be ready for anything.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"info": "KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.",
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"info": "\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />",
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"order": 10
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"airtime": "SUN 7:30pm-8pm",
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"info": "Latino USA, the radio journal of news and culture, is the only national, English-language radio program produced from a Latino perspective.",
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"live-from-here-highlights": {
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"title": "Live from Here Highlights",
"info": "Chris Thile steps to the mic as the host of Live from Here (formerly A Prairie Home Companion), a live public radio variety show. Download Chris’s Song of the Week plus other highlights from the broadcast. Produced by American Public Media.",
"airtime": "SAT 6pm-8pm, SUN 11am-1pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Live-From-Here-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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"meta": {
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"link": "/radio/program/live-from-here-highlights",
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"rss": "https://feeds.publicradio.org/public_feeds/a-prairie-home-companion-highlights/rss/rss"
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"marketplace": {
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"mindshift": {
"id": "mindshift",
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"order": 13
},
"link": "/podcasts/mindshift",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
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"onourwatch": {
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"tagline": "Deeply-reported investigative journalism",
"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/On-Our-Watch-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"order": 12
},
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"info": "Our weekly podcast explores how the media 'sausage' is made, casts an incisive eye on fluctuations in the marketplace of ideas, and examines threats to the freedom of information and expression in America and abroad. For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us",
"airtime": "SUN 2pm-3pm, MON 12am-1am",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/onTheMedia.png",
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"our-body-politic": {
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"title": "Our Body Politic",
"info": "Presented by KQED, KCRW and KPCC, and created and hosted by award-winning journalist Farai Chideya, Our Body Politic is unapologetically centered on reporting on not just how women of color experience the major political events of today, but how they’re impacting those very issues.",
"airtime": "SAT 6pm-7pm, SUN 1am-2am",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Our-Body-Politic-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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},
"link": "/radio/program/our-body-politic",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS9feGFQaHMxcw",
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},
"perspectives": {
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/perspectives/",
"meta": {
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"order": 15
},
"link": "/perspectives",
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"planet-money": {
"id": "planet-money",
"title": "Planet Money",
"info": "The economy explained. Imagine you could call up a friend and say, Meet me at the bar and tell me what's going on with the economy. Now imagine that's actually a fun evening.",
"airtime": "SUN 3pm-4pm",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/planetmoney.jpg",
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"politicalbreakdown": {
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