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"content": "\u003cp>Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. for kids aged 10 to 18. And autistic youth are more likely to think about and die from suicide, and at earlier ages, than their neurotypical peers. Conventional mental health interventions are not designed to address the needs of autistic people — and can even worsen their distress, especially among those with elevated cognitive language and daily living abilities. But promising new mental health research could change the tide. We’ll learn more about advances in suicide prevention in autistic and neurodivergent people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>If you or someone you know is struggling with suicidal thoughts, seek help from a professional or call 988. Or text “HOME” to 741741 in the U.S. and Canada to reach the Crisis Text Line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Related link(s):\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Autism and Suicide Prevention Workgroup’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.autismcrisissupport.com/resources\">resources\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.endurantmovement.org/\">Endurant Movement \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2025-11-20/autistic-kids-are-at-higher-risk-of-suicide-why-dont-their-parents-therapists-and-doctors-know-that\">“Behind his smile, a silent crisis: Parents seek answers after autistic son’s suicide\u003c/a>,” Los Angeles Times\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003ci>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/i>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Welcome to Forum. I’m Mina Kim. We take a closer look this hour at efforts to help address the high rate of suicide among autistic kids and teens. And if anyone you know is struggling with suicidal thoughts, resources include calling 988 or texting the word HOME to 741741.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">It was only after their son, Anthony, died by suicide in May of 2024 that his parents, Neil and Samara Tricarico, learned about the specific risks facing autistic kids — and how the warning signs can look different from those in non-autistic teens, in ways even attentive parents can miss.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now, the Tricaricos are determined to help others understand that missing piece through a nonprofit they founded called the Endurant Movement. Neil and Samara join me now. Thank you both for joining us. I really appreciate it. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thank you, Mina. Thank you for having us.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And welcome to you as well, Samara. Thank you. I’d love to start by hearing more about Anthony. He sounded so oriented toward helping others.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricario:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Oh, he really was. Anthony was a bright light in everyone’s life that he had the opportunity to connect with — especially his friends. He was caring, giving, and often, if not always, put others’ needs before his own.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. And Samara, I understand that Anthony did have a large friend group, but that he worked hard to mask his autism?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. I mean, he really — I would say — studied and became an expert in social behavior, so much so that he presented in a way that made it seem like everything was great and going really well. He was almost disguising his autism. Many of his friends had no idea, because he really leaned into understanding societal norms and what was expected, and presented himself that way.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. He was diagnosed at seven — is that right? And with all the interventions you were able to provide, at what point did he say he didn’t want those services any longer?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. He went to a Montessori charter school that ended at sixth grade and had a middle school program. As he was transitioning out of elementary school and into middle school, he tested out of his IEP and tested out of ABA therapy. He met all the measurements — all the checkboxes — and didn’t want to receive services or special treatment any longer.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So in middle school, some of his friends knew him. But when he went on to high school, it was a fresh start — no concessions, no help.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> So then, Neil, when Anthony came to the two of you with suicidal thoughts, you did all the things parents are told to do. How did you respond?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yes. Initially, he hadn’t actually come to us. Thank God he shared with his best friend, who shared with his mom, and then his mom shared with us. That opened up the dialogue with Anthony.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">And honestly, it was out of body. You hear those words, you know you’re having these conversations, but I felt like I was outside my body as it was happening. We did whatever we were told. We called 988. People came out. We met with counselors and followed where we were being led.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And essentially, it sounds like the counselors determined that since Anthony didn’t have a plan, he wasn’t at immediate risk?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. In retrospect, we noticed a seasonal pattern — spring, a time of change, was very difficult for him. The first time was freshman year, when he went to his friend’s mom. Sophomore year, he came to us directly.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">When the county crisis intervention teams evaluated him, they said he didn’t have a plan. They recommended therapy and self-care — which he was already very good at. That wasn’t especially helpful.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We also had a therapist evaluation, and again, he didn’t articulate a plan. At that point, Anthony was convinced he needed help and hoped to get it in some sort of facility. We fought tooth and nail to get him into one.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Unfortunately, it didn’t serve him well. They didn’t have a normal bed for him, so they placed him in solitary confinement. It ended up imploding the other way — taking away hope. When he came out, he was so relieved just to have fresh air. He said he’d never go to a place like that again. It really didn’t help him.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> We’re talking with Neil and Samara Tricarico, founders of the Endurant Movement and parents of Anthony Tricarico, who died in 2024. Neil, how did you learn that the recommendations you were receiving — the treatments, the inpatient experience — were so different from what experts were learning about autistic kids struggling with suicide?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> What was confusing is that when we spoke with autism experts who had helped us through Anthony’s childhood, they didn’t have experience with mental health or suicidality. Then on the mental health side, when we shared that Anthony was autistic, we were told there were no special protocols.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So autism didn’t address suicide, and mental health didn’t address autism. It wasn’t until a few weeks after Anthony passed that an acquaintance reached out on Facebook and asked to speak with me. She shared statistics showing that kids ages 12 to 18 on the spectrum are nearly 30% more likely to die by suicide. My wife and I nearly fell out of our seats.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That started this journey — including learning from a psychiatrist, Dr. Gupta, in Pittsburgh — about approaches that were actually helping.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> What are you hoping to achieve through the Endurant Movement?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> When we learned those statistics and about the work being done in the U.K. and by Dr. Gupta, it became a moral obligation to help families facing what we faced. To make them aware that there are approaches helping teens and families through this — and that lives are being saved.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And I’d add that while it’s a scary conversation and the statistics are frightening, as a parent of an autistic child, I would have wanted to know.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Throughout the diagnostic process and services, we were prepared for challenges like bullying or difficulty making friends. In Anthony’s case, we were fortunate those didn’t happen. But never once was suicide discussed as a risk.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And Samara, it sounds like you’re also saying it’s okay — even important — to talk directly about suicide?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Absolutely. Anthony wanted and craved authentic conversation. It scared me deeply, but it was important. Having the strength to educate yourself and speak directly — it could save your child’s life.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> We’re coming up on a break, but Neil, is there anything else you’d want to tell parents of autistic kids who may be expressing suicidal thoughts?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Keep your eyes, heart, and ears open. And remember: when we use the word disorder, we emphasize that something is wrong and needs fixing. Instead, we should help kids understand neurodiversity — like having blue eyes or brown eyes — and help them find their strengths, their tribes, their superheroes. This work is simple, common sense, and deeply important.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"description": "Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. for kids aged 10 to 18. And autistic youth are more likely to think about and die from suicide, and at earlier ages, than their neurotypical peers. Conventional mental health interventions are not designed to address the needs of autistic people — and can even worsen their distress, especially among those with elevated cognitive language and daily living abilities. But promising new mental health research could change the tide. We’ll learn more about advances in suicide prevention in autistic and neurodivergent people. If you or someone you know is struggling",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. for kids aged 10 to 18. And autistic youth are more likely to think about and die from suicide, and at earlier ages, than their neurotypical peers. Conventional mental health interventions are not designed to address the needs of autistic people — and can even worsen their distress, especially among those with elevated cognitive language and daily living abilities. But promising new mental health research could change the tide. We’ll learn more about advances in suicide prevention in autistic and neurodivergent people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>If you or someone you know is struggling with suicidal thoughts, seek help from a professional or call 988. Or text “HOME” to 741741 in the U.S. and Canada to reach the Crisis Text Line.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Related link(s):\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Autism and Suicide Prevention Workgroup’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.autismcrisissupport.com/resources\">resources\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.endurantmovement.org/\">Endurant Movement \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2025-11-20/autistic-kids-are-at-higher-risk-of-suicide-why-dont-their-parents-therapists-and-doctors-know-that\">“Behind his smile, a silent crisis: Parents seek answers after autistic son’s suicide\u003c/a>,” Los Angeles Times\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003ci>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/i>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Welcome to Forum. I’m Mina Kim. We take a closer look this hour at efforts to help address the high rate of suicide among autistic kids and teens. And if anyone you know is struggling with suicidal thoughts, resources include calling 988 or texting the word HOME to 741741.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">It was only after their son, Anthony, died by suicide in May of 2024 that his parents, Neil and Samara Tricarico, learned about the specific risks facing autistic kids — and how the warning signs can look different from those in non-autistic teens, in ways even attentive parents can miss.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now, the Tricaricos are determined to help others understand that missing piece through a nonprofit they founded called the Endurant Movement. Neil and Samara join me now. Thank you both for joining us. I really appreciate it. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thank you, Mina. Thank you for having us.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And welcome to you as well, Samara. Thank you. I’d love to start by hearing more about Anthony. He sounded so oriented toward helping others.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricario:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Oh, he really was. Anthony was a bright light in everyone’s life that he had the opportunity to connect with — especially his friends. He was caring, giving, and often, if not always, put others’ needs before his own.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. And Samara, I understand that Anthony did have a large friend group, but that he worked hard to mask his autism?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. I mean, he really — I would say — studied and became an expert in social behavior, so much so that he presented in a way that made it seem like everything was great and going really well. He was almost disguising his autism. Many of his friends had no idea, because he really leaned into understanding societal norms and what was expected, and presented himself that way.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. He was diagnosed at seven — is that right? And with all the interventions you were able to provide, at what point did he say he didn’t want those services any longer?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. He went to a Montessori charter school that ended at sixth grade and had a middle school program. As he was transitioning out of elementary school and into middle school, he tested out of his IEP and tested out of ABA therapy. He met all the measurements — all the checkboxes — and didn’t want to receive services or special treatment any longer.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So in middle school, some of his friends knew him. But when he went on to high school, it was a fresh start — no concessions, no help.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> So then, Neil, when Anthony came to the two of you with suicidal thoughts, you did all the things parents are told to do. How did you respond?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yes. Initially, he hadn’t actually come to us. Thank God he shared with his best friend, who shared with his mom, and then his mom shared with us. That opened up the dialogue with Anthony.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">And honestly, it was out of body. You hear those words, you know you’re having these conversations, but I felt like I was outside my body as it was happening. We did whatever we were told. We called 988. People came out. We met with counselors and followed where we were being led.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And essentially, it sounds like the counselors determined that since Anthony didn’t have a plan, he wasn’t at immediate risk?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. In retrospect, we noticed a seasonal pattern — spring, a time of change, was very difficult for him. The first time was freshman year, when he went to his friend’s mom. Sophomore year, he came to us directly.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">When the county crisis intervention teams evaluated him, they said he didn’t have a plan. They recommended therapy and self-care — which he was already very good at. That wasn’t especially helpful.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We also had a therapist evaluation, and again, he didn’t articulate a plan. At that point, Anthony was convinced he needed help and hoped to get it in some sort of facility. We fought tooth and nail to get him into one.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Unfortunately, it didn’t serve him well. They didn’t have a normal bed for him, so they placed him in solitary confinement. It ended up imploding the other way — taking away hope. When he came out, he was so relieved just to have fresh air. He said he’d never go to a place like that again. It really didn’t help him.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> We’re talking with Neil and Samara Tricarico, founders of the Endurant Movement and parents of Anthony Tricarico, who died in 2024. Neil, how did you learn that the recommendations you were receiving — the treatments, the inpatient experience — were so different from what experts were learning about autistic kids struggling with suicide?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> What was confusing is that when we spoke with autism experts who had helped us through Anthony’s childhood, they didn’t have experience with mental health or suicidality. Then on the mental health side, when we shared that Anthony was autistic, we were told there were no special protocols.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So autism didn’t address suicide, and mental health didn’t address autism. It wasn’t until a few weeks after Anthony passed that an acquaintance reached out on Facebook and asked to speak with me. She shared statistics showing that kids ages 12 to 18 on the spectrum are nearly 30% more likely to die by suicide. My wife and I nearly fell out of our seats.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That started this journey — including learning from a psychiatrist, Dr. Gupta, in Pittsburgh — about approaches that were actually helping.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> What are you hoping to achieve through the Endurant Movement?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> When we learned those statistics and about the work being done in the U.K. and by Dr. Gupta, it became a moral obligation to help families facing what we faced. To make them aware that there are approaches helping teens and families through this — and that lives are being saved.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And I’d add that while it’s a scary conversation and the statistics are frightening, as a parent of an autistic child, I would have wanted to know.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Throughout the diagnostic process and services, we were prepared for challenges like bullying or difficulty making friends. In Anthony’s case, we were fortunate those didn’t happen. But never once was suicide discussed as a risk.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And Samara, it sounds like you’re also saying it’s okay — even important — to talk directly about suicide?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Samara Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Absolutely. Anthony wanted and craved authentic conversation. It scared me deeply, but it was important. Having the strength to educate yourself and speak directly — it could save your child’s life.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Mina Kim:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> We’re coming up on a break, but Neil, is there anything else you’d want to tell parents of autistic kids who may be expressing suicidal thoughts?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Neil Tricarico:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Keep your eyes, heart, and ears open. And remember: when we use the word disorder, we emphasize that something is wrong and needs fixing. Instead, we should help kids understand neurodiversity — like having blue eyes or brown eyes — and help them find their strengths, their tribes, their superheroes. This work is simple, common sense, and deeply important.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003ch2>Airdate: Monday, December 15 at 9 AM\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>There have been more than 150 small earthquakes in San Ramon in the past month. In one rattling day alone there were at least 19 of magnitude 2.0 or higher. Do all these little earthquakes mean the big one is coming soon? Or maybe that the big one is not coming soon? Seismologists say it means neither. But we’re bringing together earthquake scientists to answer all your questions and tell us the latest in the science of quakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003ci>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/i>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal: \u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Welcome to Forum. I’m Alexis Madrigal. There’s nothing quite like a little earthquake very close to your house to remind you to check your emergency supplies. My family lives about a mile from the Hayward Fault, so we pretty regularly get little 3.0-ish quakes — just strong enough to make you think, \u003c/span>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is this the big one?\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> But then over fast enough to not be too stressful.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That said, what’s happening out in San Ramon right now is something different. On a recent day, they had 19 quakes of magnitude 2.0 or higher. Here to discuss what’s going on out there and to take all your earthquake questions, we’re joined by Richard Allen, director of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Berkeley. Welcome.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thanks. Great to be here.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And we’ve got Annemarie Baltay, who’s a research geophysicist with the Earthquake Science Center at the U.S. Geological Survey. Thanks for joining us.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thanks so much for having me.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Richard, are we having more earthquakes than normal? How do you think about this?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Well, yeah — I get asked this question all the time whenever we start to have some shocks. And the answer is that we’re not really having anything particularly unusual. It’s true that we’ve had several earthquakes along the Hayward Fault over the last few months, and then, of course, we have this swarm that’s going on right now.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But the swarm is actually not that unusual. We’ve had more than ten of these swarms over the last few decades. They flare up from time to time — they last days to weeks, and then they typically fade away. What we’ve not seen is this swarm ending in a large-magnitude earthquake. But, of course, that doesn’t mean we won’t have one this time. In the Bay Area, as we all know, we always have to be ready for large-magnitude earthquakes.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> But let’s say you lived in San Ramon. Would an earthquake swarm be an interesting phenomenon, or would it be something where you’re like, \u003c/span>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oh, no big deal — it’s just another earthquake, and another earthquake, and another earthquake\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> I know it’s pretty traumatizing for people who live there. When you’re getting woken up on a regular basis over many days, even these small-magnitude earthquakes give you a very sudden, sharp thud, which can wake people up. That’s pretty traumatizing — there’s no getting away from that, unfortunately.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But at the same time, we know we’ve seen this before. So we need to keep in mind that it’s not too serious an issue.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. Annemarie, what is an earthquake swarm or cluster?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah, that’s a great question. In some sense, it’s just a matter of words. Traditionally, we talk about a mainshock-aftershock sequence, where the first earthquake is the largest, and then we know from observations and statistics that earthquakes tend to decrease in magnitude and frequency over time.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">A swarm is just a series of earthquakes that doesn’t follow that pattern. In the case of San Ramon, what we’ve traditionally seen — like Richard said — over many decades is that the first earthquakes may not be the largest, but they’re all of similar size. We saw quite a few magnitude-3.5-ish earthquakes in this swarm, and that’s typical.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So it may be a slightly different physical mechanism, where earthquakes are popping off little by little, one after the other, rather than being one big release of stress like we see in a mainshock-aftershock sequence.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> So interesting. We’re talking about the recent swarm of earthquakes in San Ramon and other earthquake issues in the area. Maybe you felt the one in Sonoma County this weekend. You can give us a call with your earthquake questions — we’ve got your experts here — at 866-733-6786. You can email forum@kqed.org. You can find us on social media — BlueSky, Instagram, Discord — we’re KQED Forum there as well.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Annemarie, is it the nature of the fault — the way the fault itself is put together — that leads some places, like the Calaveras Fault, which is the one in San Ramon, to have this kind of behavior?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah, we think so. But this is actually a great open question. We can’t stick our heads down in the Earth and see exactly what’s going on. Much of what we know comes from observing the fault at the surface with seismometers or digging into the shallow subsurface.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">What we think might be happening at the northern end of the Calaveras Fault is that it terminates into a bunch of smaller faults that fragment off. There may be smaller activity happening on those faults that host these swarms. We know this area experiences swarms very typically, so there must be some physical explanation there.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> That’s so interesting. The Calaveras Fault feels like the third wheel here. We always talk about the San Andreas, and of course the Hayward Fault. Talk to me a little bit about the Calaveras fault and its relationship to those other two.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen: \u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sure. The San Andreas is the one everybody is most familiar with. But as the San Andreas Fault system comes up into the Bay Area, it splits into multiple parallel faults. The second one people think of is the Hayward Fault, which runs right through Oakland and the East Bay. As you go further east, you get to the Calaveras Fault.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is really a splay of faults accommodating the same process — the plate tectonic motion between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate moving past one another. That motion is distributed across these faults. There are many more than just three, but these are the ones that seem most active and have the highest probability of hosting a large-magnitude earthquake in the future.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Does the Calaveras fault have that potential? Give me the ranking — what are our highest-risk faults?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Sure. The USGS puts out an outlook for the Bay Area. Right now, we’re in a forecast period that runs until 2043 — about 18 years.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> It’s a long forecast.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> It is — that’s the nature of it. We can’t say exactly when or where an earthquake will occur, but over that period, there’s about a 72% probability of having a magnitude-6.7 or larger earthquake in the Bay Area.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We can then look statistically at which faults are most likely to host that 6.7. The Hayward Fault is the most likely. The San Andreas is also quite likely, followed by the Calaveras and the Concord Fault.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> So the Calaveras fault does contribute to that overall probability.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yes, it does.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> The Hayward is there, right, because the last big one was in 1868 — and the record is roughly every 140 years, and we’re past that now.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> That’s right. The last was in 1868 — ironically, the same year UC Berkeley was founded. We estimate the recurrence interval at about 140 to 150 years, with uncertainties of tens of years. That means we’re past the average recurrence interval.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So we really have to be ready at any time — but it could also still be years away. That’s the dilemma. There’s no hiding from the fact that we need to be ready for a major earthquake, even if it doesn’t happen right away.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> There’s a lot of uncertainty there. Do you think we’ll ever get better at narrowing that down, Annemarie?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> I think it’s really the nature of the Earth. We can look back over historic and prehistoric times and see average recurrence rates. Let me give you an analogy for folks in San Francisco: If you’re waiting for the N line — it’s supposed to come every 15 minutes. But no one’s surprised if you wait 30 or 40 minutes, and then three trains show up at once.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That’s how earthquakes work. We understand the long-term system, but on a human time scale, we can’t say exactly when or where they’ll happen.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> If I can add to that — while the statistics leave us with uncertainty, we’re excited about new opportunities to learn more. The Hayward and Calaveras faults radiate a lot of information: creep, repeating micro-earthquakes, and other signals. Some faults are completely locked and silent. These aren’t.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So while uncertainties remain, we’re hopeful we can learn more about where we are in the earthquake cycle and say more in the future.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And if the Hayward does go, it’ll be one of the most instrumented faults on Earth.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Exactly. That’s why instrumentation matters — collecting data before, during, and after the earthquake.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Annemarie, these little quakes don’t relieve pressure for a big one, right?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> That’s right. There just aren’t enough of them, and they don’t release enough stress.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Because the scale is exponential.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay: \u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Exactly. A magnitude-3 releases about 32 times more energy than a magnitude-2 — but there aren’t nearly enough 2s to add up.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Got it. We’re talking about the recent earthquake cluster in San Ramon and taking your earthquake questions. We’re joined by Annemarie Baltay of the USGS and Richard Allen of UC Berkeley. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003ch2>Airdate: Monday, December 15 at 9 AM\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>There have been more than 150 small earthquakes in San Ramon in the past month. In one rattling day alone there were at least 19 of magnitude 2.0 or higher. Do all these little earthquakes mean the big one is coming soon? Or maybe that the big one is not coming soon? Seismologists say it means neither. But we’re bringing together earthquake scientists to answer all your questions and tell us the latest in the science of quakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003ci>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/i>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal: \u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Welcome to Forum. I’m Alexis Madrigal. There’s nothing quite like a little earthquake very close to your house to remind you to check your emergency supplies. My family lives about a mile from the Hayward Fault, so we pretty regularly get little 3.0-ish quakes — just strong enough to make you think, \u003c/span>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is this the big one?\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> But then over fast enough to not be too stressful.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That said, what’s happening out in San Ramon right now is something different. On a recent day, they had 19 quakes of magnitude 2.0 or higher. Here to discuss what’s going on out there and to take all your earthquake questions, we’re joined by Richard Allen, director of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Berkeley. Welcome.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thanks. Great to be here.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And we’ve got Annemarie Baltay, who’s a research geophysicist with the Earthquake Science Center at the U.S. Geological Survey. Thanks for joining us.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Thanks so much for having me.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Richard, are we having more earthquakes than normal? How do you think about this?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Well, yeah — I get asked this question all the time whenever we start to have some shocks. And the answer is that we’re not really having anything particularly unusual. It’s true that we’ve had several earthquakes along the Hayward Fault over the last few months, and then, of course, we have this swarm that’s going on right now.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But the swarm is actually not that unusual. We’ve had more than ten of these swarms over the last few decades. They flare up from time to time — they last days to weeks, and then they typically fade away. What we’ve not seen is this swarm ending in a large-magnitude earthquake. But, of course, that doesn’t mean we won’t have one this time. In the Bay Area, as we all know, we always have to be ready for large-magnitude earthquakes.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> But let’s say you lived in San Ramon. Would an earthquake swarm be an interesting phenomenon, or would it be something where you’re like, \u003c/span>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oh, no big deal — it’s just another earthquake, and another earthquake, and another earthquake\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> I know it’s pretty traumatizing for people who live there. When you’re getting woken up on a regular basis over many days, even these small-magnitude earthquakes give you a very sudden, sharp thud, which can wake people up. That’s pretty traumatizing — there’s no getting away from that, unfortunately.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">But at the same time, we know we’ve seen this before. So we need to keep in mind that it’s not too serious an issue.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah. Annemarie, what is an earthquake swarm or cluster?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah, that’s a great question. In some sense, it’s just a matter of words. Traditionally, we talk about a mainshock-aftershock sequence, where the first earthquake is the largest, and then we know from observations and statistics that earthquakes tend to decrease in magnitude and frequency over time.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">A swarm is just a series of earthquakes that doesn’t follow that pattern. In the case of San Ramon, what we’ve traditionally seen — like Richard said — over many decades is that the first earthquakes may not be the largest, but they’re all of similar size. We saw quite a few magnitude-3.5-ish earthquakes in this swarm, and that’s typical.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So it may be a slightly different physical mechanism, where earthquakes are popping off little by little, one after the other, rather than being one big release of stress like we see in a mainshock-aftershock sequence.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> So interesting. We’re talking about the recent swarm of earthquakes in San Ramon and other earthquake issues in the area. Maybe you felt the one in Sonoma County this weekend. You can give us a call with your earthquake questions — we’ve got your experts here — at 866-733-6786. You can email forum@kqed.org. You can find us on social media — BlueSky, Instagram, Discord — we’re KQED Forum there as well.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Annemarie, is it the nature of the fault — the way the fault itself is put together — that leads some places, like the Calaveras Fault, which is the one in San Ramon, to have this kind of behavior?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yeah, we think so. But this is actually a great open question. We can’t stick our heads down in the Earth and see exactly what’s going on. Much of what we know comes from observing the fault at the surface with seismometers or digging into the shallow subsurface.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">What we think might be happening at the northern end of the Calaveras Fault is that it terminates into a bunch of smaller faults that fragment off. There may be smaller activity happening on those faults that host these swarms. We know this area experiences swarms very typically, so there must be some physical explanation there.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> That’s so interesting. The Calaveras Fault feels like the third wheel here. We always talk about the San Andreas, and of course the Hayward Fault. Talk to me a little bit about the Calaveras fault and its relationship to those other two.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen: \u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sure. The San Andreas is the one everybody is most familiar with. But as the San Andreas Fault system comes up into the Bay Area, it splits into multiple parallel faults. The second one people think of is the Hayward Fault, which runs right through Oakland and the East Bay. As you go further east, you get to the Calaveras Fault.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This is really a splay of faults accommodating the same process — the plate tectonic motion between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate moving past one another. That motion is distributed across these faults. There are many more than just three, but these are the ones that seem most active and have the highest probability of hosting a large-magnitude earthquake in the future.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Does the Calaveras fault have that potential? Give me the ranking — what are our highest-risk faults?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Sure. The USGS puts out an outlook for the Bay Area. Right now, we’re in a forecast period that runs until 2043 — about 18 years.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> It’s a long forecast.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> It is — that’s the nature of it. We can’t say exactly when or where an earthquake will occur, but over that period, there’s about a 72% probability of having a magnitude-6.7 or larger earthquake in the Bay Area.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">We can then look statistically at which faults are most likely to host that 6.7. The Hayward Fault is the most likely. 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That means we’re past the average recurrence interval.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So we really have to be ready at any time — but it could also still be years away. That’s the dilemma. There’s no hiding from the fact that we need to be ready for a major earthquake, even if it doesn’t happen right away.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> There’s a lot of uncertainty there. Do you think we’ll ever get better at narrowing that down, Annemarie?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> I think it’s really the nature of the Earth. We can look back over historic and prehistoric times and see average recurrence rates. Let me give you an analogy for folks in San Francisco: If you’re waiting for the N line — it’s supposed to come every 15 minutes. But no one’s surprised if you wait 30 or 40 minutes, and then three trains show up at once.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">That’s how earthquakes work. We understand the long-term system, but on a human time scale, we can’t say exactly when or where they’ll happen.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> If I can add to that — while the statistics leave us with uncertainty, we’re excited about new opportunities to learn more. The Hayward and Calaveras faults radiate a lot of information: creep, repeating micro-earthquakes, and other signals. Some faults are completely locked and silent. These aren’t.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">So while uncertainties remain, we’re hopeful we can learn more about where we are in the earthquake cycle and say more in the future.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> And if the Hayward does go, it’ll be one of the most instrumented faults on Earth.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Richard Allen:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Exactly. That’s why instrumentation matters — collecting data before, during, and after the earthquake.\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Alexis Madrigal:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Annemarie, these little quakes don’t relieve pressure for a big one, right?\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Annemarie Baltay:\u003c/b>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> That’s right. 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"content": "\u003ch2>Airdate: Wednesday, December 10 at 10AM\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Lawmakers are demanding that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth release video of the September strike that killed two survivors of a U.S. attack on their boat in the Caribbean. That strike, which the Pentagon says targeted drug traffickers, has prompted war crime accusations. But since then, the U.S. has launched more than 20 strikes in the region, killing more than 80 people. We talk about the impact and legality of the attacks along with other controversies at the Pentagon \u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">— \u003c/span> and the political implications for Hegseth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"410\" data-end=\"810\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"410\" data-end=\"423\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Welcome to \u003cem data-start=\"435\" data-end=\"442\">Forum\u003c/em>. I’m Mina Kim. A classified briefing yesterday from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to congressional leaders and top members of the House and Senate intelligence committees was very unsatisfying, according to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who — along with other lawmakers — is demanding to see full video of a U.S. military strike on a boat in the Caribbean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"812\" data-end=\"1124\">The attack included a follow-up strike that killed two survivors of the initial blast and has become the subject of intense scrutiny among lawmakers and military and legal experts. Julian E. Barnes covers U.S. intelligence agencies and international security for \u003cem data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1095\">The New York Times\u003c/em>. Julian, welcome to \u003cem data-start=\"1116\" data-end=\"1123\">Forum\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1126\" data-end=\"1169\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1126\" data-end=\"1147\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Thanks for having me.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1339\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1184\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Glad to have you. Can you start by reviewing what happened on September 2 when the U.S. military launched two attacks on a speedboat in the Caribbean Sea?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1341\" data-end=\"1672\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1341\" data-end=\"1362\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Sure. What we know is that the U.S. military was tracking this boat in the Caribbean — coming from Venezuela and reportedly headed either to Trinidad and Tobago or Suriname. The U.S. military said they had intelligence that the boat was carrying cocaine and was in communication with other narcotraffickers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1896\">So on September 2, the first of what has become a campaign of military strikes on alleged narcotraffickers took place. The first missile was launched at the boat. It was carrying eleven people, and it killed all but two.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1898\" data-end=\"2262\">We now know those two survivors ended up in the water. The boat was ripped in half by the first strike, and they were clinging to the wreckage and climbing onto the hull. And we now know that Commander Mitch Bradley — at that time the head of Joint Special Operations Command — ordered a second strike to sink the boat, kill the survivors, and destroy the drugs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2264\" data-end=\"2616\">This second strike has become the focus of congressional oversight over the last week and a half. There have been a number of classified briefings — none shown to the public — but a range of lawmakers have questioned Admiral Bradley, General Dan Cain, and yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, and the head of the CIA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2618\" data-end=\"2879\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"2618\" data-end=\"2631\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> The survivors’ behavior is being interpreted in different ways. Can you explain those interpretations? First, what are Democrats and most of the military and legal experts you spoke to saying is the most logical reason for the survivors’ behavior?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"3094\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2902\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> The video — which has not been shown publicly but which lawmakers and congressional aides have seen — shows the survivors climbing onto the wreckage of the boat and waving, making gestures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3096\" data-end=\"3425\">Most people who have seen it say the most logical explanation is that they are seeking rescue. They had seen the American aircraft that launched the attack. This was the first strike, so they did not know there was a military campaign against drug boats. They might not have known they had just been hit by an American missile.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3427\" data-end=\"3578\">So a lot of people believe they were waving for rescue, seeing the AC-130 or another aircraft overhead. Others interpreted it as a wave of surrender.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3580\" data-end=\"3913\">But initially, the military leaders briefed Congress that this was a form of communication — that the survivors might have been signaling to another drug boat or drug plane. We now know there was no such drug boat in visual range. So that explanation — offered as a rationale for the strike — does not hold up under logical scrutiny.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3915\" data-end=\"4168\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"3915\" data-end=\"3928\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Why would it be important for military commanders and the administration to say the shipwrecked men were communicating with other drug boats? Is it because, if they were shipwrecked and seeking rescue, killing them would have been a crime?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4170\" data-end=\"4384\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"4170\" data-end=\"4191\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> If this is indeed an armed conflict — which the U.S. military asserts, even though Congress has not authorized it — international law and the military’s own Law of War Manual are very clear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4386\" data-end=\"4634\">The Second Geneva Convention says you cannot target shipwrecked individuals — people who are out of the fight. It is a war crime to kill someone who is not in a position to take part in the fight and who is struggling for life on a capsized boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4636\" data-end=\"4827\">On the other hand, if someone is still in the fight — still has weapons, still poses a threat — they remain a legitimate target under the laws of armed conflict and the military’s own code.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4829\" data-end=\"5131\">So what a reasonable person would have thought about the intent of these survivors is extremely important. And when you describe the situation, the average person understands that someone fighting for their life in the water is not still involved in the fight — they’re not a classic combatant anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5133\" data-end=\"5319\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"5133\" data-end=\"5146\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Let me ask our listeners: What do you think? What are your reactions to what you’re hearing about the latest revelations regarding U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5321\" data-end=\"5465\">You can email \u003ca class=\"decorated-link cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5335\" data-end=\"5349\">forum@kqed.org\u003c/a>, find us on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at KQED Forum. And you can call us at 866-733-6786.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5467\" data-end=\"5613\">Julian, can you remind us what a massive departure this type of military action is from how the U.S. has normally handled drug smugglers on boats?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5615\" data-end=\"5884\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"5615\" data-end=\"5636\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> That’s a really important point. We have not treated this as a traditional military operation. We have not treated drug traffickers the same way we treat terrorists or members of an enemy army. This has historically been a law enforcement issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5886\" data-end=\"6228\">Until the Trump administration began this campaign in September, the U.S. government put Coast Guard personnel on Navy ships. When a Navy ship stopped a boat suspected of drug smuggling, it was a law enforcement action. The Coast Guard took the lead — gathering evidence, and the people could be brought to Florida for possible prosecution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6230\" data-end=\"6557\">You would have to prove in a court of law that they were trafficking drugs — violating American law. But in this case, treating it as a military operation means the evidence is destroyed when bombs are dropped. The people have — with one exception — been killed. The drugs, if present, have ended up at the bottom of the sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6559\" data-end=\"6814\">And the military has not released detailed information about how they know these boats were carrying drugs. We have some anonymous information about the basics, but no detailed account the public can interrogate. It’s quite a departure from past practice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6816\" data-end=\"7039\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"6816\" data-end=\"6829\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> I want to play a cut of Secretary Hegseth speaking at a defense forum in Simi Valley this past Saturday, where he appears to be giving the DOD’s justification for attacking drug smugglers in this military way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7041\" data-end=\"7518\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7041\" data-end=\"7065\">Pete Hegseth (clip):\u003c/strong> The days in which these narcoterrorists — designated terror organizations — operate freely in our hemisphere are over. These narcoterrorists are the Al Qaeda of our hemisphere, and we are hunting them with the same sophistication and precision that we hunted Al Qaeda. We are tracking them. We are killing them. And we will keep killing them so long as they are poisoning our people with narcotics so lethal that they’re tantamount to chemical weapons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7520\" data-end=\"7652\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7520\" data-end=\"7533\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> So he’s essentially saying drug smugglers are narcoterrorists comparable to Al Qaeda, which actually attacked the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7654\" data-end=\"7954\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7654\" data-end=\"7675\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Yeah. I was in California and listened to his speech and talked to people about it. It is quite a departure. He’s saying drug smugglers are the same as Al Qaeda. When he talks about chemical weapons, he’s suggesting the drugs themselves are weapons designed to kill Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7956\" data-end=\"8131\">Drugs do kill Americans — but the drugs they’re targeting in the Caribbean are mostly cocaine. There are cocaine overdoses, though far fewer than fentanyl deaths in the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8133\" data-end=\"8410\">So it is quite a departure to consider cocaine a weapon. In a counterterrorism context, if someone is planting an IED, or a survivor of a drone strike moves toward an explosive, that’s a hostile act. But saying that carrying drugs is a hostile act is a very different scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8412\" data-end=\"8539\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"8412\" data-end=\"8425\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> The other thing you said at the top — and we’re coming up on a break — is that the boat wasn’t bound for the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8541\" data-end=\"8714\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"8541\" data-end=\"8562\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Drug trafficking from Venezuela largely heads to Europe. Ninety percent of it goes to Europe. 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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cstrong>This partial transcript was computer-generated. While our team has reviewed it, there may be errors.\u003c/strong>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"410\" data-end=\"810\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"410\" data-end=\"423\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Welcome to \u003cem data-start=\"435\" data-end=\"442\">Forum\u003c/em>. I’m Mina Kim. A classified briefing yesterday from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to congressional leaders and top members of the House and Senate intelligence committees was very unsatisfying, according to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who — along with other lawmakers — is demanding to see full video of a U.S. military strike on a boat in the Caribbean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"812\" data-end=\"1124\">The attack included a follow-up strike that killed two survivors of the initial blast and has become the subject of intense scrutiny among lawmakers and military and legal experts. Julian E. Barnes covers U.S. intelligence agencies and international security for \u003cem data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1095\">The New York Times\u003c/em>. Julian, welcome to \u003cem data-start=\"1116\" data-end=\"1123\">Forum\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1126\" data-end=\"1169\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1126\" data-end=\"1147\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Thanks for having me.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1339\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1184\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Glad to have you. Can you start by reviewing what happened on September 2 when the U.S. military launched two attacks on a speedboat in the Caribbean Sea?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1341\" data-end=\"1672\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"1341\" data-end=\"1362\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Sure. What we know is that the U.S. military was tracking this boat in the Caribbean — coming from Venezuela and reportedly headed either to Trinidad and Tobago or Suriname. The U.S. military said they had intelligence that the boat was carrying cocaine and was in communication with other narcotraffickers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1896\">So on September 2, the first of what has become a campaign of military strikes on alleged narcotraffickers took place. The first missile was launched at the boat. It was carrying eleven people, and it killed all but two.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"1898\" data-end=\"2262\">We now know those two survivors ended up in the water. The boat was ripped in half by the first strike, and they were clinging to the wreckage and climbing onto the hull. And we now know that Commander Mitch Bradley — at that time the head of Joint Special Operations Command — ordered a second strike to sink the boat, kill the survivors, and destroy the drugs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2264\" data-end=\"2616\">This second strike has become the focus of congressional oversight over the last week and a half. There have been a number of classified briefings — none shown to the public — but a range of lawmakers have questioned Admiral Bradley, General Dan Cain, and yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, John Ratcliffe, and the head of the CIA.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2618\" data-end=\"2879\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"2618\" data-end=\"2631\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> The survivors’ behavior is being interpreted in different ways. Can you explain those interpretations? First, what are Democrats and most of the military and legal experts you spoke to saying is the most logical reason for the survivors’ behavior?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"3094\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2902\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> The video — which has not been shown publicly but which lawmakers and congressional aides have seen — shows the survivors climbing onto the wreckage of the boat and waving, making gestures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3096\" data-end=\"3425\">Most people who have seen it say the most logical explanation is that they are seeking rescue. They had seen the American aircraft that launched the attack. This was the first strike, so they did not know there was a military campaign against drug boats. They might not have known they had just been hit by an American missile.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3427\" data-end=\"3578\">So a lot of people believe they were waving for rescue, seeing the AC-130 or another aircraft overhead. Others interpreted it as a wave of surrender.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3580\" data-end=\"3913\">But initially, the military leaders briefed Congress that this was a form of communication — that the survivors might have been signaling to another drug boat or drug plane. We now know there was no such drug boat in visual range. So that explanation — offered as a rationale for the strike — does not hold up under logical scrutiny.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"3915\" data-end=\"4168\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"3915\" data-end=\"3928\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Why would it be important for military commanders and the administration to say the shipwrecked men were communicating with other drug boats? Is it because, if they were shipwrecked and seeking rescue, killing them would have been a crime?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4170\" data-end=\"4384\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"4170\" data-end=\"4191\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> If this is indeed an armed conflict — which the U.S. military asserts, even though Congress has not authorized it — international law and the military’s own Law of War Manual are very clear.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4386\" data-end=\"4634\">The Second Geneva Convention says you cannot target shipwrecked individuals — people who are out of the fight. It is a war crime to kill someone who is not in a position to take part in the fight and who is struggling for life on a capsized boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4636\" data-end=\"4827\">On the other hand, if someone is still in the fight — still has weapons, still poses a threat — they remain a legitimate target under the laws of armed conflict and the military’s own code.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"4829\" data-end=\"5131\">So what a reasonable person would have thought about the intent of these survivors is extremely important. And when you describe the situation, the average person understands that someone fighting for their life in the water is not still involved in the fight — they’re not a classic combatant anymore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5133\" data-end=\"5319\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"5133\" data-end=\"5146\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> Let me ask our listeners: What do you think? What are your reactions to what you’re hearing about the latest revelations regarding U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5321\" data-end=\"5465\">You can email \u003ca class=\"decorated-link cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5335\" data-end=\"5349\">forum@kqed.org\u003c/a>, find us on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at KQED Forum. And you can call us at 866-733-6786.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5467\" data-end=\"5613\">Julian, can you remind us what a massive departure this type of military action is from how the U.S. has normally handled drug smugglers on boats?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5615\" data-end=\"5884\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"5615\" data-end=\"5636\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> That’s a really important point. We have not treated this as a traditional military operation. We have not treated drug traffickers the same way we treat terrorists or members of an enemy army. This has historically been a law enforcement issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"5886\" data-end=\"6228\">Until the Trump administration began this campaign in September, the U.S. government put Coast Guard personnel on Navy ships. When a Navy ship stopped a boat suspected of drug smuggling, it was a law enforcement action. The Coast Guard took the lead — gathering evidence, and the people could be brought to Florida for possible prosecution.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6230\" data-end=\"6557\">You would have to prove in a court of law that they were trafficking drugs — violating American law. But in this case, treating it as a military operation means the evidence is destroyed when bombs are dropped. The people have — with one exception — been killed. The drugs, if present, have ended up at the bottom of the sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6559\" data-end=\"6814\">And the military has not released detailed information about how they know these boats were carrying drugs. We have some anonymous information about the basics, but no detailed account the public can interrogate. It’s quite a departure from past practice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"6816\" data-end=\"7039\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"6816\" data-end=\"6829\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> I want to play a cut of Secretary Hegseth speaking at a defense forum in Simi Valley this past Saturday, where he appears to be giving the DOD’s justification for attacking drug smugglers in this military way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7041\" data-end=\"7518\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7041\" data-end=\"7065\">Pete Hegseth (clip):\u003c/strong> The days in which these narcoterrorists — designated terror organizations — operate freely in our hemisphere are over. These narcoterrorists are the Al Qaeda of our hemisphere, and we are hunting them with the same sophistication and precision that we hunted Al Qaeda. We are tracking them. We are killing them. And we will keep killing them so long as they are poisoning our people with narcotics so lethal that they’re tantamount to chemical weapons.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7520\" data-end=\"7652\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7520\" data-end=\"7533\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> So he’s essentially saying drug smugglers are narcoterrorists comparable to Al Qaeda, which actually attacked the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7654\" data-end=\"7954\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"7654\" data-end=\"7675\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Yeah. I was in California and listened to his speech and talked to people about it. It is quite a departure. He’s saying drug smugglers are the same as Al Qaeda. When he talks about chemical weapons, he’s suggesting the drugs themselves are weapons designed to kill Americans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"7956\" data-end=\"8131\">Drugs do kill Americans — but the drugs they’re targeting in the Caribbean are mostly cocaine. There are cocaine overdoses, though far fewer than fentanyl deaths in the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8133\" data-end=\"8410\">So it is quite a departure to consider cocaine a weapon. In a counterterrorism context, if someone is planting an IED, or a survivor of a drone strike moves toward an explosive, that’s a hostile act. But saying that carrying drugs is a hostile act is a very different scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8412\" data-end=\"8539\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"8412\" data-end=\"8425\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> The other thing you said at the top — and we’re coming up on a break — is that the boat wasn’t bound for the U.S.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8541\" data-end=\"8714\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"8541\" data-end=\"8562\">Julian E. Barnes:\u003c/strong> Drug trafficking from Venezuela largely heads to Europe. Ninety percent of it goes to Europe. These drugs were bound for Europe, not the United States.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp data-start=\"8716\" data-end=\"8976\">\u003cstrong data-start=\"8716\" data-end=\"8729\">Mina Kim:\u003c/strong> We’re talking with Julian Barnes, intelligence and national security reporter for \u003cem data-start=\"8812\" data-end=\"8832\">The New York Times\u003c/em>, about U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean and the most recent one that’s getting a lot of scrutiny. More with him after the break.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"soldout": {
"id": "soldout",
"title": "SOLD OUT: Rethinking Housing in America",
"tagline": "A new future for housing",
"info": "Sold Out: Rethinking Housing in America",
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},
"tech-nation": {
"id": "tech-nation",
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