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Mina Kim: Welcome to Forum. I’m Mina Kim.
Republican Steve Hilton is holding a narrow lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra, with Democrat Tom Steyer remaining hopeful as the vote count continues in one of California’s most competitive governors’ races in decades. Last night, Hilton liked his chances.
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Steve Hilton: It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.
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Mina Kim: For his part, Xavier Becerra — who gained a lifeline after the implosion of Eric Swalwell’s campaign — relished his comeback.
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Xavier Becerra: After all the exhausting ads are run, the pundits are spun, and the billionaires try to buy their way in — it’s the people, only the people, who get the last word. And tonight, the people of the great state of California and the greatest nation on Earth have spoken.
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Mina Kim: Joining me for analysis of this race, a key mayor’s race, and the role redistricting played in congressional races is KQED’s politics team — and you, our listeners. How are you feeling about the primary election results so far? Call us at 866-733-6786, email forum@kqed.org, or find us on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, or Instagram at KQED Forum.
Marisa Lagos is with us, along with Guy Marzorati, correspondents on KQED’s politics desk. Marisa also co-hosts Political Breakdown. Late night for both of you — thank you for coming in.
Guy Marzorati: Good morning.
Marisa Lagos: Good morning.
Mina Kim: The final polls going into last night were pretty much showing things would shake out this way in the governor’s race, with Hilton and Becerra narrowly leading. Will this hold, Marisa? Give me your thoughts.
Marisa Lagos: There are still millions of ballots to be counted, and there’s definitely still a path for Steyer to surge. He’ll need to do really well in the remaining returns, and some of the larger liberal cities that have a lot of votes outstanding are stronger territory for him. But it’s certainly not guaranteed. Given how close Becerra and Hilton have been, you could see a world where either of them gets knocked out. That said, Steyer hasn’t really moved past around 20%, so we’re still waiting for better data on which ballots are still out there. And I just want to caution people: there’s nothing conspiratorial about the pace of counting. We send everyone a mail-in ballot, and that process simply takes a while.
Mina Kim: Is Steyer underperforming, Guy, or is it too early to say?
Guy Marzorati: You could dive deep into some of these precinct results, and maybe he would have wanted stronger margins in the dense urban areas where he’s doing well — like San Francisco. But with perhaps half the ballots still left to count, it’s too early to dissect who’s over- or underperforming. We also don’t actually know the denominator — ballots postmarked by yesterday can still arrive and be counted. Election officials are sorting through which ballots are valid and which have issues. It’s a genuinely uncertain landscape.
That said, overall turnout looks pretty positive — about 22% right now. If that’s roughly the halfway point, we could approach 40% turnout. That doesn’t sound impressive, but governor primaries in recent history have been in the low thirties. So it does speak to real voter interest in this race.
Mina Kim: Right — they can count ballots up to a week after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. And adding to that, Marisa, is the fact that Democrats appeared to hold onto their ballots longer than Republicans did. Based on what you’re seeing, do you think Democrats voted more strategically this time around?
Marisa Lagos: A hundred percent. It was really interesting to watch in the final days — and now in the results. Lower-tier candidates like Katie Porter really fell off. She’d been hovering close to double digits, but in the returns so far she hasn’t hit 5%. So you did see a consolidation effect, which isn’t entirely surprising. This has been such an unusual race — it broke late for Becerra, you had the Swalwell situation, and you had all the candidates who didn’t run: Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, Rob Bonta. Add to that the behavior of Democratic voters over the past decade, which has become more strategic and less purely emotional. Becerra probably felt like a safe choice. There was also a progressive surge around Steyer, but he faced a real challenge with the tension between his anti-billionaire message and the fact that he is himself a billionaire.
Mina Kim: One listener writes: “I know a number of Democratic voters who are not happy with what the Democrats have done in California, but they cannot stomach a governor who supports Trump. Why don’t Republicans run a more moderate candidate like Arnold Schwarzenegger? I think they could win easily.” Could they, Guy — in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans?
Guy Marzorati: No, I don’t think they could. And it comes down to where Republican voters get their signals. Outside of President Trump, I’m not sure there’s any strong, clear bat signal for Republican voters in California. Hilton really moved up in this race after Trump endorsed him. And looking across several races, when Trump didn’t get involved or didn’t endorse, signals that used to carry weight for Republican voters really didn’t matter. In the insurance commissioner race, the Republican candidate endorsed by the state party saw voters split their support a dozen different ways. In another congressional race, Kevin Kiley — formerly Republican, now independent — had support from Mike Johnson and various Republican groups, but roughly 20% of the vote still went to a random Republican who ran no real campaign. The absence of a clear signal other than Trump really underscores how much his endorsement drives Republican voter behavior — not game theory about who might be more electable.
Marisa Lagos: And it’s not just that they’re following Trump’s cue — they actually support Trump and his policies. There’s a very conservative vein running through the party’s base. When you go to a Republican convention, the party faithful are not interested in moderate candidates willing to reach across the aisle. They want the most conservative option. Hilton doing so well reflects less anything else than the fact that he’s aligned himself closely with Trump and his policies. He’s not necessarily as conservative as someone like Chad Bianco, but he sold that alignment to Republican voters convincingly.
Guy Marzorati: Right — if Trump had endorsed Bianco, Hilton would not have 28% of the vote right now.
Marisa Lagos: Not at all.
Mina Kim: A couple of listener takes here. Eloise writes: “Steyer’s hit pieces on Becerra turned me off. I couldn’t stand the idea of his millions paying for an avalanche of that propaganda for five more months. I voted for Porter.” And another listener writes: “I want Steyer as our next governor. He represents a progressive vision that protects our climate and environment. Becerra is a status quo candidate. Want more of the same old, same old? Javier is your guy. God forbid Steve Hilton gains any more traction — Californians can’t be that dumb.”
So — if Hilton is in the November runoff, his chances of winning are extremely slim. But if it ends up being Becerra vs. Steyer, what happens?
Guy Marzorati: No idea. We’ve never seen this. It’s a political science professor’s dream scenario. How does a Democrat-vs.-Democrat general election for governor play out? Do the candidates pivot toward the center to court Republican votes? Do they assume Republicans simply won’t vote in a gubernatorial runoff and just double down on their pitches to Democratic voters? We really don’t know — except for one thing: it would be very expensive. Steyer would continue spending tens of millions of dollars, and the business interests that oppose him — PG&E, the realtors, the Chamber of Commerce — would likely spend heavily to make sure he doesn’t become governor.
Mina Kim: Steyer did spend heavily in this race — around $200 million. We’ve had self-funded candidates before, like Meg Whitman. Is this another example of money not being enough to win, Marisa?
Marisa Lagos: Money talks, but it’s not the only factor. In races getting a lot of attention, you can’t isolate spending from everything else. Becerra was far outspent by Steyer, but he still had the opportunity to introduce himself to voters — and ultimately drew major endorsements and independent expenditure support. It really depends on the district, the race, the individual circumstances. That said, if you have no money, you probably can’t compete at all.
Mina Kim: We’re talking with Marisa Lagos, politics correspondent at KQED and co-host of Political Breakdown, and Guy Marzorati, correspondent on KQED’s California politics and government desk. We want to hear from you — what are your reactions to last night’s primary results? Who did you vote for and why? Are you happy or disappointed with how your candidate is performing? What message did you want to send with your vote? Email forum@kqed.org or post on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, or Instagram. More after the break. I’m Mina Kim.
