There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, "How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”
The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?
Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, "How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”
As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change.
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There was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:
- You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.
- Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”
Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.