Bay Area Could See Its First Monsoon of the Season This Weekend

The first storm of the annual North American Monsoon season may be headed to the Bay Area — but forecasters said it’s more likely to bring fire than floods.

After a chilly week, the National Weather Service is projecting warmer and drier conditions starting on Thursday, followed by monsoon-driven thunderstorms starting Sunday and continuing through Monday.

Monsoons are a shift in winds that often causes a very rainy season or a very dry season. In this case, National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kennedy said it’s more likely that any precipitation from the storms would evaporate before it reaches the ground.

“If any lightning does strike the ground, we may see more, easier fires start, especially since we’re having warmer and drier conditions this week that are really serving to dry out our fuels,” Kennedy said.

Right now, Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz and Santa Clara counties, as well as the East Bay, are most likely to see storms, Kennedy said. However, both the storms and their location are still up in the air, with more clarity coming over the next day or two.

“Since we do still have some uncertainty about where and when thunderstorms are going to develop, I wouldn’t fully take thunderstorms off the table for the rest of the Bay Area too,” Kennedy said.

Because of this lower confidence, Kennedy encouraged residents to stay up to date on the forecast and stay aware of their surroundings, especially if they live in more rural, fire-prone areas.