Becerra Advances in California Governor Race as Hilton, Steyer Battle for Second Spot

An estimated 3.5 million ballots remain to be counted, and the later ballots were expected to skew more Democratic, according to voter data analysts.

Under California’s open primary system, the top two vote-getters move on to the runoff, regardless of party affiliation. The state also counts mail-in ballots that arrive up to seven days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

Becerra’s No. 1 finish, called Friday afternoon by the Associated Press, marks a remarkable political comeback for the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, who spent much of the primary campaign languishing in the single digits in polls. He was among the lower-tier group of candidates facing pressure from party leaders to drop out of the race earlier this year amid fears that the crowded field of Democrats could split the vote and allow two Republicans to advance.

In mid-February, with Becerra mired at around 5% in public polling, his campaign manager Emma Harris published a memo outlining the former attorney general’s path to victory. It harked back to the 1998 primary election, when Lt. Gov. Gray Davis leaned into his resume to pull his campaign out of last place in the polls and claim the nomination.

And it previewed a comeback theory that rested on a novel statistic: Becerra’s ratio of voters who saw him favorably versus those who were not familiar with him.

“Becerra’s high net favorability rating (+40 points, 9:1 favorable) as a ratio of the unfamiliarity with him (49% unfamiliar) is the strongest in the upper tier of candidates,” Harris wrote. “The data points towards substantial growth.”

It turned out to be prescient.

After Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race amid shocking sexual misconduct allegations, Becerra leapfrogged ahead of his competitors.

Amanda Renteria, who worked for Becerra when he was California attorney general, said despite Becerra’s slow start in the race, he and his campaign always recognized a narrow path to victory. She said he remained steadfast as the pressure mounted on low-polling candidates to drop out.

“It was kind of like that story of, hey, we’re not at [the] playoffs yet. Our team is looking pretty good. And when the tournament starts, we’re going to be ready for it,” she said.

She said that while people tend to underestimate Becerra, his mellow demeanor makes him approachable to voters.

“He isn’t going to evoke a deep hate,” she said.

That shield of likability may have helped Becerra weather an onslaught of attacks once he assumed the mantle of Democratic frontrunner.

His rivals tore into his record as Health secretary and needled him over the scandal that engulfed his former top adviser, Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to stealing campaign funds from Becerra’s account. Those attacks were amplified by Steyer, who emerged as the other main Democratic contender as he spent over $200 million on his campaign.

But Becerra’s support never waned, and he appeared to grow steadier in later candidate debates. In the closing weeks of the campaign, the cavalry arrived: more than $15 million in pro-Becerra spending from groups including the California Association of Realtors and companies such as Meta, joining a steady drumbeat of anti-Steyer spending funded in large measure by PG&E.

As Election Day neared, the historic nature of Becerra’s candidacy came into focus: If elected, he would be California’s first Latino governor in modern history. At a campaign stop in San José last weekend, he was greeted by home care workers who chanted “Vivo Latino!” and “Becerra para presidente!” as he entered the room.

Through it all, Becerra returned to his resume. The path from the attorney general’s office to the governorship has been well trod: by Earl Warren, Pat Brown, George Deukmejian and Jerry Brown.

“I’m a pretty open book; I’ve been around quite a while, whether you knew me when I was in Congress or when I was attorney general fighting Donald Trump,” he told KQED after the San José campaign stop. “You sort of know who I am.”

Now, the question for Becerra is who he will face this fall. A Hilton win would set him on a glidepath to victory: Winning statewide would be an uphill battle for any Republican, in a state where there are nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans, and no GOP candidate has won statewide in 20 years.

Steyer would present a rockier road for Becerra. If the billionaire former hedge fund manager makes the runoff, it will set up an expensive intraparty fight.