Hilton, Becerra Lead Democrats’ Final Poll for California Governor

The chances of both Republicans advancing past the June 2 primary to the general election appear increasingly slim as the gap between Hilton and Bianco has continued to grow following President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton in April.

“In recent months, I have stated that California Democrats would do whatever was required to ensure that we elect a Democrat as our next governor,” said Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party. “These results show we are moving closer to doing exactly that.”

Instead, the remaining drama over the final two weeks of the primary campaign could come down to whether Becerra, who has surged in the polls over the last month, can maintain his lead over Steyer, a billionaire who has donated a record $193 million to his own campaign.

Becerra has gained support in each of the biweekly Evitarus polls since former Rep. Eric Swalwell ended his campaign in response to accusations of sexual assault. The latest survey, conducted May 14-16, suggests that Becerra has emerged largely unscathed after two weeks of attacks from fellow Democrats in debates and television advertisements.

Still, Steyer has remained within striking distance. Since May 2, Becerra has increased his support from 18% to 21%, while Steyer has grown his share from 12% to 15%.

The bump in support for the two frontrunners seems to have come at the expense of two other Democrats: former Rep. Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who both suffered a decline in support compared to the Evitarus poll in early May.

There remains room for more movement, as the survey found 13% of likely voters — and 17% of Democrats — remain undecided.

With his near-unlimited war chest, Steyer is expected to continue to blanket the state with advertisements in the stretch run of the campaign. The former hedge fund manager has already smashed the state’s self-funding record, held by former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who spent $140 million on her own campaign for governor in 2010.

Becerra has been aided by political groups operating independently of his campaign. An anti-Steyer super PAC funded largely by PG&E and the California Chamber of Commerce has begun including pro-Becerra messaging in its ads. And on Monday, Airbnb, the California Association of Realtors and a pair of Native American tribal governments poured over $3.4 million into a pro-Becerra committee.

The survey released Tuesday will be the final one commissioned by the state Democratic Party before Election Day. The polls began as an effort by Hicks to pressure lower-polling candidates to drop out of the race, in order to consolidate the Democratic vote and prevent the party from being locked out of the general election.

Despite his efforts, two Democrats polling at 1%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, remain in the race.

“Certainly if they honestly assess the viability of their campaign, my guess is that they would call a press conference, suspend their campaign and endorse another candidate,” Hicks said. “Do I expect that to happen? No, I don’t.”