Campaign to Avert Bay Area Public Transit Death Spiral Gets Underway

Boots are hitting the ground on Friday in a campaign to save Bay Area public transit agencies from precipitous fiscal cliffs and severe service cuts that would all but cripple regional transit.

Armed with petitions and pens, volunteers — and some paid canvassers — will fan out through five Bay Area counties and begin collecting signatures to qualify a regional sales tax measure to fund public transit for this November’s ballot.

“ We are feeling so excited to finally start,” said Lian Chang, a signature gathering organizer with the Connect Bay Area campaign. “We really have to solve this transit funding crisis that’s been brewing in the Bay Area for years now.”

The Bay Area’s four largest transit operators — MUNI, BART, Caltrain, and AC Transit, which collectively represent 80% of public transit ridership in the region — are in serious financial trouble. A massive decline in ridership, which began during the COVID-19 pandemic, has failed to rebound to pre-pandemic levels.

With federal and state emergency funding set to run out this year, MUNI and BART are projecting budget deficits in fiscal year 2027 of over $300 million each. The deficit for Caltrain and AC Transit for fiscal year 2027 is as much as $75 million and $74 million, respectively, according to statements from those agencies.

Barring passage of the measure — known as the Connect Bay Area Transit Initiative — some agencies are warning they could need to enact drastic service cuts as soon as next summer that would dramatically lengthen commute times, worsen air pollution and hamper the local economy.

In order to close its budget deficit, representatives from BART said the agency could be forced to eliminate weekend service or cut two entire lines entirely.

MUNI may make 50% cuts to major bus and metro lines. Caltrain could reduce weekday service to once an hour, and AC Transit could cut 37% of its overall service. State Sen. Jesse Arreguín (D-Berkeley) said those cuts would have far-reaching effects on the state’s long-term budget outlook, in addition to snarling transit — and making traffic worse.

“ If the Bay Area’s economy fails because transit implodes, then that impacts the state’s economy, and it impacts the state’s budget,” Arreguín said.

The Connect Bay Area campaign must collect 186,000 valid signatures in five Bay Area counties and submit them by early June in order to qualify the measure.

If passed, it would create a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, and a one-cent sales tax in San Francisco County that is projected to generate just over $1 billion annually for local operators for a period of 14 years, after which the tax will expire.

The lion’s share of revenue would go to the main four transit agencies, with a much smaller portion distributed to smaller ones, including the SF Bay Ferry and Golden Gate Transit, among others.

The revenue would wash away the budget deficits for the main four operators, with the exception of MUNI, which would only get about half of the money it needs to shore up its budget deficit. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie is proposing a separate parcel tax measure for the November ballot to make up the difference.

While this campaign to secure long-term funding for public transit kicks off, a promised $750 million loan from the state to provide short-term financial relief to transit agencies is still being negotiated.

Even if the Connect Bay Area Transit Initiative makes it to the ballot and is approved by voters, money won’t start flowing to Bay Area agencies until early summer 2027.

That’s far too late for the main four agencies, which will hit their fiscal cliffs by early 2027 at the latest, triggering service cuts.

“Unless the state steps in and provides funding, these transit operators are going to have to make difficult decisions, and it’s going to really harm people in the Bay Area,” Arreguín said.

State legislators approved a $750 million loan for Bay Area transit operators in last year’s budget, and the terms were intended to be agreed upon by last summer.

But months later, there’s still no deal. Local transit officials and the state Department of Finance are still wrangling over where the money will come from.

It was originally intended to come out of the state’s general fund, but Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration walked back that promise, and the parties are currently negotiating a proposal to cannibalize budgets for transit capital projects to fund the loan.

Over a dozen state legislators have signed a joint letter penned by Arreguín, imploring the Department of Finance to resolve the issue by the end of the month.

“ This loan is critically important to bridge us from here until next year so that we do not have service cuts,” state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) said. “That is the last thing the Bay Area needs.”

Despite the loan still up in the air, representatives from the Connect Bay Area campaign said the ballot initiative is moving full steam ahead.

“ We don’t have a choice on waiting for the long-term funding. We have to put this together regardless of what happens with the loan,” campaign spokesperson Jeff Cretan said. “This is going to be the sustainable future for public transit in the Bay Area.”

The campaign has so far raised nearly $3 million to support its signature gathering efforts. Major early donors include technology company Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, Genentech and the Service Employees International Union, SEIU 1021.

“ We’ve had volunteers constantly signing up and beating down our door asking how they can get involved,” Chang said.

Chang primarily gets around by bike, but she said she came to rely heavily on public transit after she tore her Achilles tendon a few years ago.

“ I have really seen in my own life how essential transit is, even if I don’t think of myself as a rider on a day-to-day basis. Anyone can suddenly be super dependent on transit for any kind of reason,” Chang said. She likened public transit to a library: “ We’re all super glad they’re there, whether or not we personally go every single day.”