How Proposition 50’s Win Reshapes California’s 2026 Elections

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla’s surprise Election Day announcement that he is not running for governor is just one piece of the larger political chessboard being shuffled in California ahead of the 2026 midterms now that the Proposition 50 campaign is over.

The new maps approved by voters under the ballot measure will upend a number of congressional races as incumbents and candidates on both sides of the aisle decide where to run under the new maps, shrinking California’s field of battleground seats down to just a few districts.

The end of the Proposition 50 campaign, which has consumed the Democratic establishment in California for the past two months, also clears the way for the 2026 governor’s race to begin in earnest. And the measure’s resounding victory gives its top proponent, Gov. Gavin Newsom, wind in his sails as he looks ahead to a likely 2028 presidential run.

Speaking in Sacramento after Proposition 50 won, Newsom already seemed to be looking beyond Tuesday’s election. He tore into President Donald Trump, tying a number of his moves — aggressive immigration raids, dispatching armed troops to U.S. cities, sending election monitors to blue states on Tuesday — to the redistricting fight.

“Why else is he trying to rig the midterm elections before one single vote is even cast?” Newsom said. “One thing he never counted on, though, was the state of California. We stood tall and we stood firm in response to Donald Trump’s recklessness. And tonight, after poking the bear, this bear roared. … None of us, however, are naive. This is a pattern. This is practice. Donald Trump’s efforts to rig the midterm election continue to this day.”

Those midterm elections were exactly why Newsom and other Democrats pushed so hard for Proposition 50 to pass.

A race to lead California begins in earnest

The first domino in California’s midterms fell hours before polls closed Tuesday.

Padilla surprised a gaggle of reporters in the U.S. Capitol who were awaiting an update on the government shutdown by announcing that he would not be joining the crowded Democratic field vying to succeed Newsom.

Flanked by his wife, Angela, Padilla said he would remain in the Senate, despite receiving an “outpouring of encouragement and offers of support” over the last two months to make a run for governor.

With the Proposition 50 campaign over and Padilla out, the long-anticipated governor’s contest can finally pick up steam, Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo said.

“For much of 2025, the California governor’s race has been in a freezer — whether that was Vice President Kamala Harris making her decision [whether] to run for governor, and now with Proposition 50 freezing donors and freezing decisions on who might run or who might not run,” Trujillo said.

But even as donors and candidates stayed on the sidelines, the governor’s race played out quietly in the background of the ballot measure campaign.

Padilla was prominently featured in a series of pro-Proposition 50 advertisements, fueling speculation he was preparing a run. Investor Tom Steyer spent over $12 million to star in a pair of commercials, and Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso sent voters in the Southland his own Yes on 50 mailer. Both billionaires are thought to be considering a leap into the governor’s race.

And it was a question about Proposition 50 that sent former Rep. Katie Porter into a meltdown during an interview and threatened to upend her status as a frontrunner in the race.

The viral moment amplified chatter that Padilla might enter the campaign as a steady hand and known commodity in Sacramento, where he spent more than a decade as a state senator and secretary of state.

Now, Trujillo said, Capitol insiders and interest groups will have to pick from a crowded field of Democrats that includes Xavier Becerra, the state’s former attorney general; Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Assembly speaker and mayor of Los Angeles; Betty Yee, the former state controller; and Tony Thurmond, California’s superintendent of public instruction.

“I think what Sacramento is worried about is they’re so used to a coronation,” he said.

“Now they kind of have to pick, they kind of have to put on their political spidey-sense and pick a candidate,” Trujillo said. “[And] maybe be wrong.”

Congressional musical chairs

The most immediate impact of Proposition 50’s passage, though, is a new congressional map that gives Democrats a chance to flip up to five seats currently held by Republicans — while simultaneously easing the path to reelection for a handful of incumbent Democrats.

“This could certainly determine who controls the House in 2027,” said Erin Covey, U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report. “Of course, there are a number of other states that have taken up redistricting as well, but in most of those states, the outcome of a new map would maybe result in just one or two seats flipping.”

“So California’s map is really going to be incredibly important next year,” she said.

The new map presents difficult choices for a handful of Republican incumbents.

In Southern California, the 41st District will be moved from the Inland Empire into Los Angeles County, making it virtually impossible for incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert to win reelection there. Calvert announced Wednesday that he will run in the 40th Congressional District, setting up a primary clash with Rep. Young Kim.

In the northern part of the state, Rep. Doug LaMalfa faces a similar predicament, as the addition of tens of thousands of liberal Sonoma County voters to his district likely closes off his chances of winning next year.

Democratic strategist Orrin Evans said the immediate question in California’s battleground seats is whether these GOP incumbents dig in for an uphill reelection fight — or begin making their case for an appointment in the Trump administration.

Those decisions could be especially important in the new 3rd District around Sacramento and the 48th District, which spans from San Diego County to Palm Springs. There, Republican incumbents Kevin Kiley and Darrell Issa face narrow but still winnable paths to reelection.

Issa bowed out of a reelection campaign in 2018, when he faced strong Democratic headwinds in a coastal San Diego district. And Kiley could likewise help Democrats by opting to run in the neighboring 5th District, a safe Republican seat held by Rep. Tom McClintock.

But if incumbents such as Issa and Kiley decide to run in their current seats, “these become general election scenarios that you can’t take for granted,” Evans said.

“The Democratic DNA of these districts will be very tough for any Republican incumbent to win,” said Evans. “But … it requires [Democrats] in these safer seats to spend a little bit more money.”

The next few weeks are likely to provide answers to questions beyond the state’s swing districts — such as whether former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides to retire after representing San Francisco in Congress for nearly four decades.

Looking beyond 2026

Not on the ballot next year: Newsom, who is entering his final year in office and will be a lame-duck governor.

But the passage of Proposition 50 — and the national attention it garnered — is a huge win for the famously ambitious politician. Newsom recently said, for the first time, that he is seriously considering a White House run.

It’s a turnaround from Newsom’s rough start to the year: First, the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, then a series of attacks from the White House, and backlash within his own party over the controversial MAGA guests he invited on his new podcast.

But Newsom seemed to regain his footing after Trump dispatched armed troops to Los Angeles in early summer, sparking a very public fight. Newsom leaned into the high-profile clash, including on social media, where his zingy posts mimicking Trump’s style caught fire, angering the right and endearing him to frustrated Democrats.

Newsom capitalized on that Democratic enthusiasm — and his party base’s desire to take on Trump — in the Proposition 50 campaign. The ballot measure became something of a litmus test of Newsom’s popularity and Trump’s unpopularity in California, said Mark Baldassare, who directs the Public Policy Institute of California’s poll.

Baldassare said PPIC’s most recent poll ahead of the election reflected an incredibly partisan split: Democrats were in favor, and Republicans were opposed.

“So it’s going very much along partisan lines, but also along the lines of how people feel about President Trump and how they feel about Gov. Newsom,” he said.

California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez, a former state Assembly member who often sparred with Newsom in the Legislature, said the governor showed a side of himself in recent months that Democrats have been hungry to see.

“It’s not the same governor from a year ago, right? This is somebody … who’s willing to fight, get in a street fight, take on the president, take on these notions of unfairness and what’s going on, mock the other side,” she said. “And I think it’s showing that people really want that.”

Covey, of the Cook Political Report, said the Proposition 50 campaign has not only improved Newsom’s image nationally among Democrats, but has also given him a chance to expand his list of small-dollar donors across the country. The governor raised an eye-popping $38 million in small donations — and collected all of their contact information as well.

“I think Democrats who are frustrated with their leaders and their view not doing enough to fight back against Trump are happy with someone like Gov. Newsom, who has really led the charge on this redistricting effort,” Covey said.

But the question for not only Newsom, but also for Democrats more broadly, is whether they can rebuild their own brand ahead of 2028 — not just run against Trump, who won’t be on the ballot again.

“You never want to run a political party on being against somebody or something, but the anti-Trump stuff really works, right?” Gonzalez said. “I don’t think people are flocking to the Democratic Party. That’s still an issue.”