In Picking a Fight with Trump, Newsom Gambles on His Own Political Future

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has never been shy about picking a fight. But this moment could be make-or-break for the ambitious politician, as he takes on President Donald Trump not only on social media but at the ballot box.

It’s a faceoff that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives next year and have longer repercussions for the governor’s own political ambitions — potentially a White House run of his own in 2028.

Newsom has emerged as perhaps the nation’s most high-profile Democrat in recent months as he pushes back against the president’s move to redraw congressional districts in Republican-led states. In response, Newsom is asking California voters to pass a redistricting plan that could give Democrats five new seats — directly countering new Texas maps drawn to help Republicans flip five districts.

“We got here because the President of the United States is struggling,” Newsom said last month at a news conference where he signed the law putting the redistricting proposal before voters.

“[Trump] can’t win by playing by traditional sets of rules. He plays by no rules,” he added. “It’s not the rule of law, it’s the rule of Don. And we’re standing up to that. We’re responding to that. They fired the first shot in Texas. We wouldn’t be here, had Texas not done what they just did.”

It’s hardly Newsom’s first time making national headlines by taking a high-stakes gamble.

In 2004, as San Francisco mayor, Newsom burst into the national consciousness when he threw open the doors of City Hall to same-sex couples and ordered city workers to begin marrying them, despite both state and federal bans on gay marriage. Republican political consultant Mike Madrid traces a straight path from that same sex marriage fight to this moment.

“The throughline that I think is pretty consistent with Gavin Newsom is he is a generational talent in the Democratic Party that has been able to do something that nobody else has done. And that is: He wins on cultural issues,” Madrid said.

Madrid added that Democrats usually run from these fights, but “Gavin’s like, give me the sword, I’ll go out there. And he wins.”

But Newsom’s take-no-prisoners style toward Trump in recent months is a marked contrast from earlier this year, when he tried to make nice with Trump as wildfires tore through Los Angeles. As those blazes burned, the governor met Trump on the airport tarmac and took him around L.A. to see the destruction, even as the president made false claims about the fires’ causes and threatened to withhold disaster aid.

That all changed in June, when Trump sent armed military troops into L.A. over Newsom’s objections.

Since then, Newsom and his staff have taken an increasingly aggressive — and cheeky — tone online. He’s not only confronting the president in the media and in court, but also mocking his social media posts with parodies that echo Trump’s own language, tone and style.

Trump has long derided Newsom as a “terrible” governor and called him “Newscum.” Now, the governor is mimicking Trump, savaging the president in all-caps posts. He has recently suggested Trump has dementia, called him a loser and ridiculed his hands.

“They really learned, we cannot respond with facts and honesty and good information. We have to take the offense,” Madrid said. “And that’s what you saw to great effect during the ICE raids and continue to see it with sort of the quote-unquote trolling that’s going on now, where Gavin and his team are completely dominating the narrative.”

Polls indicate Newsom’s stance is resonating. Since April, Newsom’s approval rating has jumped eight points to 51% in UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies poll. Fifty-nine percent of voters support his more vocal criticisms of Trump, and Democrats are far more enthusiastic about him running for president in 2028 than former Vice President Kamala Harris.

“He’s seen as kind of a dynamic force against Donald Trump. Voters, especially Democrats, seem to think that’s a good idea,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll.

But the poll also found a tough fight ahead for Newsom with the redistricting ballot measure, Proposition 50: It enjoyed 48% support in the poll, with 32 percent opposed and about one-fifth of voters still undecided.

Still, this isn’t uncharted territory for the governor, DiCamillo said, noting that he handily beat back an attempted recall in 2021 by making it a referendum on Trump and MAGA politics.

“This reminds me of when he got challenged on the recall election,” DiCamillo said. “He started running against Republicans and very successfully defeated the recall initiative; his job ratings went up … Now, he’s taking a very forceful, direct, combative approach to that and his job ratings are going up.”

San Franciscan Ellek Linton, a 26-year-old voter who’s registered as an independent, is one of those on the left who is giving Newsom high marks for his willingness to take on Trump. Linton said watching the governor mock Trump on social media has been refreshing and entertaining, not just for him but for his Utah-based parents, who weren’t even familiar with the governor until recently.

“I think in general his demeanor and his approach is really what we need, like that’s honestly, I believe the only way we’re ever going to beat Trump,” he said. “You got to go to that level.”

But Newsom’s task ahead is tougher than winning on social media: He must convince voters to support a ballot measure that will sideline the state’s independent redistricting commission, which was created at the ballot box just over a decade ago and remains popular in public polls.

Linton said he will reluctantly support Newsom’s redistricting measure and its gerrymandered maps, even if it means adopting the tactics Trump and Texas are using.

“I don’t think anybody agrees with gerrymandering, but at the same time, it’s kind of necessary,” he said. “If one side’s gonna cheat, we have to kind of cheat back.”

Republicans in California see Newsom’s move as a blatant power grab. On the Assembly floor last month, GOP leader James Gallagher said Trump was wrong to redistrict and warned that by following the president, Newsom is taking the country down a dangerous path.

“Gavin is fighting fire with fire,” Gallagher said, calling the new maps a “Gavin-mander.”

“You move forward fighting fire with fire, what happens? You burn it all down,” he said. “And in this case, it affects our most fundamental American principle: representation.”

But even some Democrats who have historically viewed Newsom with skepticism because of his perceived political ambitions are rallying around the governor.

Former state Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, served alongside Newsom on the city’s Board of Supervisors more than two decades ago and was a progressive leader during his 14 years in Sacramento. Leno hasn’t always agreed with Newsom, but now has high praise for the governor.

“This is a serious moment in our nation’s history, more than serious; it cannot be overstated. And Gavin is stepping up to the plate, I appreciate it,” he said.

Leno sees the redistricting fight — and whether Democrats can take back the House — as an existential moment for American democracy. It’s also a risky bet on which Newsom has seemingly staked his political reputation. If the ballot measure fails, it would not only be an embarrassment for the governor and Democrats, it could also help Republicans remain in control of the House and embolden Trump.

“Do not think this is all about Gavin and all about Gavin’s aspirations. This is about the survival of our nation,” Leno said.

The redistricting campaign is expected to be close and attract money from around the country. Those near Newsom say he’ll lean on the same playbook that helped him survive the recall: making the fight about Trump.