California Voters Divided on Newsom’s Plan to Redraw Congressional Districts

California voters are split over whether to approve new congressional maps proposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, designed to give Democrats more U.S. House seats and counteract a Republican plan to gain seats in other states, according to a new poll.

A survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found about one-fifth of California voters undecided on the new maps, with 48% supporting the Democratic redistricting plan and 32% opposed.

Lawmakers in Sacramento voted along party lines Thursday to put the new districts before state voters Nov. 4, a map that would put five GOP-held California districts in play in 2026. The vote came as Texas Republicans also rushed through a plan — which does not require voter approval — aimed at flipping five seats into Republican hands.

President Donald Trump set off the unusual mid-decade redistricting arms race when he demanded Texas Republicans gerrymander their map to help his party retain control of Congress in next year’s midterms. California responded in kind, with Newsom announcing he would push a gerrymandered plan to benefit Democrats if Texas moved forward with Trump’s plan.

Under the plan, California voters are being asked to temporarily suspend the independent redistricting commission they created at the ballot box over a decade ago and allow the new maps to take effect through the 2030 election, when the independent commission would regain control of drawing congressional districts.

The poll finds deep partisan divisions over the plan. Democrats are overwhelmingly in favor of Newsom’s proposal, with 69% saying they will vote for the change. In contrast, 72% of Republicans are opposed.

But a sizable chunk of the electorate, about 20%, told UC Berkeley’s pollsters that they don’t know how they’ll vote in November. IGS co-director Eric Schickler said the large number of undecided voters injects “considerable uncertainty” into the truncated campaign sprint.

The redistricting initiative “starts out with relatively strong support,” Schickler said, but given the large number of potentially persuadable voters, “this will be an intense campaign with both sides spending tens of millions to try to move those undecided voters.”

It could be a tough fight for Newsom and Democrats over the coming months. In addition to Republican lawmakers and party leaders, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has promised to campaign against the new maps, and some good government groups also oppose the move to sideline the independent redistricting commission.

A poll released by Newsom’s pollster, David Binder, earlier this week showed 57% of voters in favor and 35% opposed, with just 8% undecided — a much stronger position for Democrats than IGS found.

But Democrats enjoy a strong registration advantage in California, and Trump remains unpopular with a majority of the electorate. The IGS poll also found good news for Newsom, whose approval rating has jumped five points since April to 51%. A strong majority of voters also support Newsom’s recent posture as a leading critic of the president.

The poll, conducted by phone Aug. 11-17 among 4,950 registered voters, has a margin of error of ± 1.5 percentage points.