Newsom’s ‘Break-the-Glass’ Plan Sets Up California Midterm Redistricting Fight

Gov. Gavin Newsom is continuing his high-stakes staredown with Republican leaders in Texas over political lines that could help decide control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.

After meeting with a group of Texas Democrats in Sacramento on Friday, Newsom said he was still considering ways to redraw California’s 52 congressional districts to favor Democrats — if Texas leaders proceed with plans to rearrange their own lines to help Republicans. A partisan redistricting in California would require setting aside the current lines drawn by a citizen commission, and represent a clear shift for Newsom and fellow Democrats in prioritizing political gains over community-focused representation.

“Everything is at stake if we’re not successful next year in taking back the House of Representatives,” Newsom said.

While Newsom said he supports California’s independent redistricting process, he argued the nation faces a “break-the-glass” moment after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — with encouragement from President Donald Trump — called a special session of the state Legislature to redraw the Lone Star state’s political maps.

“Of course, we want a fair playing field, we want to play the game on the terms where everyone is playing by the same set of rules,” Newsom said. “That is no longer the case.”

Redistricting usually takes place every 10 years to reapportion voters based on U.S. Census results.

In California, voters approved a ballot measure in 2010, handing control of the redistricting process to an independent citizens’ commission. That panel spends months gathering testimony from Californians about the communities they call home, a departure from the previous map-drawing process, which focused largely on helping incumbents keep their seats.

“We never looked at voter registration data at all,” said Sara Sadhwani, a politics professor at Pomona College who served on the redistricting commission in 2021. “Communities would define themselves: in some cases, it would be because of some geographic point — whether that was a freeway corridor or a mountain range or oceans — sometimes it was historic racialized communities, in some instances it was business communities.”

In the Bay Area, the process led to the creation of a new congressional district that included the cities of Vallejo, Fairfield, Richmond and Pittsburg — racially and ethnically diverse industrial suburbs whose residents shared concerns about affordable housing and clean air.

By not considering how the lines would impact incumbent lawmakers, the citizens’ redistricting process unintentionally created a map that was more politically competitive than those in states such as Texas and Florida, where legislatures draw the lines.

Across the 2022 and 2024 elections, Florida and Texas had a combined total of 11 House races decided by 10 points or fewer, while California had 21.

“[California’s districts] are across the board seen as fair — we haven’t had a single lawsuit brought against our maps, we have some of the most competitive districts in the nation — on balance, those should be good things,” Sadhwani said. “But when not all states are playing by the same set of rules, California is essentially bringing a rubber band to a gun fight and certainly it leaves Democrats nationally at a disadvantage.”

With Republicans clinging to a narrow seven-seat majority in the House, map-drawing gamemanship could play a key role in deciding control of Congress next year.

A partisan redraw of California’s maps would look to consolidate large numbers of Republican voters into a handful of districts, while diluting their voting power in others — strategies known as “packing” and “cracking.”

Democratic consultant Vance Ulrich published a hypothetical map on social media website X that would give Democrats a voter registration advantage in 49 of the state’s 52 districts. Nine Republicans currently hold House seats in California.

“Completely adheres to the Voting Rights Act and probably defeats 6 Republican incumbents,” Ulrich said. “Really up to incumbent House Dems about how aggressive they want to be.”

Newsom said on Friday that he was weighing “three or four different pathways” to redraw California’s lines if Texas Republicans move forward with new maps.

The governor could ask the Legislature to place a measure on the ballot asking voters to approve new maps — or a new map-drawing process — in a special election in the fall. Alternatively, Newsom and Democrats in the Legislature could attempt to draw new lines without voter approval, a move likely to face legal challenges.

Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat who chairs the Assembly’s Elections Committee, said she understood Newsom’s desire to level the national playing field through redistricting. But she worried whether new lines could be in place before the window for candidates to file for office opens on Dec. 11.

“How can our elections officials conduct a special election, certify results, receive redrawn lines, update their maps and voter files, all in time?” Pellerin said. “I’m seeing a lot of time constraints, a lack of resources, no funding, which is really going to impact any accuracy or confidence in our electoral systems.”

Republicans in the Legislature predictably denounced the idea of Newsom’s redistricting, as have many pro-democracy groups.

“Gavin Newsom is wrong on redistricting. It is not the leadership California needs right now. It is not the leadership the nation needs now or in the future,” said Darius Kemp, California executive director of Common Cause, in a statement. “California is the gold standard when it comes to people-first districts. Governor Newsom can still choose to lead with our state as a gold standard, rather than pick a fight that honestly, his political party cannot and will not win.”

The governor’s redistricting push could hinge on his ability to convince Democratic voters in California that breaking the GOP hold on power in Washington is more important than maintaining good-government norms at home.

“I believe that the people of California understand what’s at stake,” Newsom said. “If we don’t put a stake into the heart of this administration, there may not be another election in 2028.”

KQED’s Brian Krans contributed to this story.