It’s finally here. The day we’ve all been waiting for — or at least the political junkies among us.
Super Tuesday is upon us.
The polls close at 8 p.m. in California, which for the first time in many a moon will play a major role in deciding which Democrat gets the nomination and goes on to challenge President Trump in November.
For many Democrats, it probably feels like this election has been going on for three years already. And although the end is in sight, it’s really, really unlikely that any definitive winner will emerge tonight — either here in California or in many of the other states voting today.
But that delay doesn’t mean the voting system is broken or that something has gone wrong (although there’s always that possibility); it actually means things are probably working as designed.
Here’s why:
1. A huge electorate + state laws aimed at getting as many people to vote as possible = weeks of counting.
Compared to most other states, California has really progressive voting laws. That means people have more time to vote at the polls (both early and late) and return their mail-in ballots. As of this election, California voters can also register and vote on Election Day!
All of which is to say, the final count is gonna take awhile. Between the millions of vote-by-mail ballots — which don’t have to arrive at county election offices until Friday — and the many provisional ballots that will be cast at polling places today, it could take a couple of weeks to verify and count every ballot. In fact, counties have until April 3 to certify their final results.
2. Delegate math ain’t easy.
Much like how the Electoral College, not the popular vote, actually decides the presidency (as we were all reminded of in 2016), it’s the Democratic Party delegates — not the voters — who ultimately determine which candidate receives the nomination. And how those delegates are doled out is pretty complicated business.
The short of it: California has 415 delegates up for grabs. Roughly 65% of them are split among the state’s 53 congressional districts. The rest are statewide delegates. A candidate needs to get at least 15% of the popular vote in a given congressional district to qualify for any of that district’s delegates (which are then awarded proportionally). Same deal for statewide delegates: Candidates don’t get squat unless they receive at least 15% of the statewide vote.
And all the votes first need to be tallied to figure out that math.
