The ‘Ohtani Effect’ and More: What’s Behind Bay Area Transit’s Comeback

It’s been the kind of spring Bay Area transit agencies have been hoping for.

BART, Caltrain and Muni reported record-breaking post-pandemic ridership in March, as they continue to claw their way back from drops in usage and revenue wrought by the pandemic and hybrid work schedules. There’s no one reason for the uptick, but explanations range from higher fuel prices due to the war in Iran, an unseasonably warm March, and an earlier-than-usual start of the Giants’ season, to name a few.

“We’re calling it the Ohtani effect,” said BART General Manager Robert Powers, referencing the draw of the Dodgers star player after the agency in April came close to smashing its record for busiest post-pandemic day, when the Dodgers were in town to play the Giants.

The agency did hit that milestone nearly a month earlier, however, on March 25, with 227,300 exits, coinciding with the Giants Opening Day — a feat that, in turn, broke the previous record set in February, during Super Bowl LX week.

The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, which operates Muni, the city’s bus, light rail and streetcar service, reports total ridership hit 85% of pre-pandemic levels in March, with weekend ridership at 99% compared to the year prior. Caltrain saw a 33% jump — an increase of nearly 300,000 more people riding the rail line serving San Francisco and areas south.

AC Transit spokesperson Robert Lyles said March ridership data was still not available due to “software issues with a vendor that is currently impacting several key performance indicators.”

The added revenue from the surge still falls far short of fixing the agencies’ looming budget deficits, but agency officials said they welcomed the news.

“ Typically, March is when things begin to creep up. But this isn’t a creep. This is a jump,” said Dan Lieberman, a spokesman for Caltrain. “ If this is what it feels like to just be warming up, we are going to have an outstanding summer.”

With AAA marking the average price of gas in San Francisco at $6.13 for a gallon of regular, it’s likely that some commuters are deciding to switch from driving to riding public transit, according to Michael Anderson, who researches transportation economics at UC Berkeley. But dramatic impacts on public transit ridership would take time and depend on how long fuel prices remain elevated, he said.

“ You might get an immediate group of switchers who are pretty flexible, but the majority of people who might change modes might need to rework their schedules or where they live before they would be able to substitute away from driving to taking transit,” Anderson said. “ There’s a lot of people for whom it’s not really feasible to just ditch the car.”

Andrew Jardner, 32, started taking Caltrain six months ago, when he got a job working in software development in San Francisco. The Hillsdale resident now takes Caltrain and Muni to get to and from work three days a week, leaving his car at home.

“ Having the option to take the train was one of the reasons I accepted the job,” Jardner said. “I would’ve been more hesitant if I had to drive into the city.”

Muni’s ridership gains were driven by more people taking the agency’s Metro service, which hit a post-pandemic record of 74% of 2019 levels in March, according to Michael Roccaforte, spokesperson for the SFMTA.

“This is a big deal. Up to this point, the highest performing bus lines have been carrying system growth with Muni Metro ridership, and downtown being the missing piece of the puzzle,” Roccaforte said.

Roccaforte said the increases were proof that the agency’s Muni Forward initiative, which aims to make the service faster, safer and more reliable, was working to increase ridership.

Fernando Zermeno moved to downtown San Francisco a year ago from Mexico and said he rides the T-Third Street line every day to take his daughter to and from daycare, and that he prefers the light rail over the bus.

“ It’s more convenient and spacious,” he said.

BART has reported a steady monthly year-over-year growth in ridership of about 10%-13%. But March saw that number jump to nearly 20%. Still, BART’s average weekday ridership is about half of what it was before the pandemic, according to monthly ridership reports.

Caltrain, SFMTA and BART are all facing severe pandemic-related budget deficits beginning in the next fiscal year and are warning of steep service cuts unless voters in five Bay Area counties approve a regional sales tax measure to provide additional funding.

Volunteers are currently collecting signatures to get the measure on the November ballot, as well as a separate San Francisco-specific parcel tax measure.

“ Even though we’re seeing multiple records for post-pandemic ridership, our fare revenue is still falling far short of what we need to sustain our operations,” said Anna Duckworth, a spokesperson for BART, which is facing a $376 million budget deficit in the next fiscal year. “Continued growth in ridership alone is not enough to close the funding gap.”

The same is true of the SFMTA, which has also been affected by less parking revenue and allocations from the city’s general fund, Roccaforte said.

“ The pandemic really devastated our revenue sources,” he said. “There’s no way that we can bridge that gap through fares alone.”

All three agencies have warned of drastic cuts in service if the regional sales tax measure doesn’t pass.

Rhea Kaur started taking Caltrain nine months ago, after graduating from college and landing a job at UC San Francisco working as a clinical research coordinator at its cancer center. She commutes from Gilroy three days a week.

“ I drove for the first month or so, and it was pretty miserable. The ETA will say one thing, and then you get there two hours later. It was just very inconsistent and unreliable. So for that reason, I felt like Caltrain was better for me,” Kaur said.

If Caltrain were to reduce service or become less reliable, she said she’d be forced to drive and would probably reconsider her employment.

“The burnout from transporting myself for that far, for that long would honestly make me start looking for a new job,” Kaur said.