With Swalwell Out, Who Will Bay Area Voters Support for California Governor?

Before former Rep. Eric Swalwell ended his campaign for California governor and resigned from his seat in Congress, the Dublin native was consolidating support among Bay Area voters ahead of the June 2 primary.

That all changed when former staff members accused Swalwell of sexual assault and inappropriate sexual behavior in a pair of bombshell reports from the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN. With the disgraced congressmember now out of the race, the other Democrats running for governor are redoubling their efforts to attract support in the progressive, vote-rich Bay Area.

Swalwell was scheduled to answer questions from residents in a KQED town hall on May 13. We reached out to locals who had signed up to see how they are viewing the race now.

Dion Coakley of San Francisco had initially supported Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. But Becerra hadn’t gained serious traction in the polls, and Coakley feared a fractured Democratic vote could allow two Republicans to advance from the top-two primary to the general election.

“Which is kind of how I was coming to Swalwell — just the fact that he might be able to beat out one of these Republicans,” Coakley said. “Thank God this didn’t come out six weeks from now.”

In public polling before the scandal, Swalwell was running neck-and-neck with two other Democrats — former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire investor Tom Steyer — and two Republicans: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, a conservative political commentator and former Fox News host. In California, all candidates appear on the ballot together, regardless of party.

But Swalwell had built an edge on his home turf.

In a survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California, 28% of likely voters in the Bay Area supported Swalwell — more than double the support of Steyer (12%), Hilton (11%), Mahan (11%) and Porter (10%).

Swalwell is a former Alameda County prosecutor and Dublin city councilmember who has represented the East Bay in Congress since 2013. The seat he held until Tuesday, California’s 14th Congressional District, includes Hayward, Fremont, Dublin and Pleasanton.

Earlier surveys by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the firm Evitarus on behalf of the California Democratic Party also found Swalwell leading among Bay Area voters.

Cynthia Robbins-Roth of San Mateo was initially drawn to Porter, who entered Congress in the “Blue Wave” election of 2018 midterms alongside fellow Democrats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill.

“They were prepared, they were informed and they were pretty used to dealing with being in rooms with a bunch of old guys who felt like they could push women around,” Robbins-Roth said.

But she said her vote wasn’t set in stone. Swalwell had caught her eye when he served as a House manager during the second impeachment trial of President Donald Trump.

“He was one of the folks I was so impressed with,” Robbins-Roth said. “I was just kind of bummed that he turned out to be one more guy who let the power of his situation determine how he was going to behave towards other people.”

“Honestly, I’m back at Katie Porter,” she said.

In the immediate aftermath of Swalwell’s exit from the race, the Porter and Steyer campaigns each pointed to recent polling to argue that their candidate was best positioned to benefit from Swalwell’s downfall.

A March survey from UC Berkeley’s Jack Citrin Center and Politico found 39% of Swalwell voters picking Porter as their second choice, and 15% preferring Steyer. An April poll by Global Strategy Group for the Steyer campaign found Swalwell supporters more closely divided on their second choice, with 31% backing Porter and 25% supporting Steyer.

Shekhar Sakhalkar, of San José, said he is backing Steyer because of the billionaire investor’s early support for impeaching Donald Trump. Steyer launched the “Need to Impeach” campaign to remove Trump from office less than a year into his first term.

“I thought that he was trying to do the right thing in calling out the right problems,” Sakhalkar said. “So I was impressed with that part from the beginning.”

Berkeley resident Susanna Porte also likes Steyer, along with former state Controller Betty Yee. She said both have focused on her top issues of the environment and economic justice and have “decided to challenge PG&E.”

There are currently seven notable Democrats in the race, including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. Porte said a smaller field could help voters focus on the strongest candidates, but she doesn’t want to see Yee exit just yet — despite Yee polling in the low single-digits.

“Since she does seem to represent a lot of my views, I hope she’ll stay in, and perhaps someone else will jump out of the race,” Porte said.

But the seven notable Democrats left in the race all see an opportunity to make inroads with Bay Area voters now that Swalwell is out of the campaign. On Wednesday, Mahan launched a $3 million ad buy that included broadcast television in the region — while Becerra touted an influx of first-time donors.

Coakley said he’s taking his support back to Becerra — and has started to engage more deeply in the race since the Swalwell scandal broke.

“I’ve gone to the [candidate] websites,” he said. “I hadn’t really done that before all this had happened.”