New Poll Finds Race for California Governor Remains Deadlocked

California’s race for governor remains deadlocked with just over two months until voting begins in the June 2 primary, according to a survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.

No clear frontrunner has emerged among the roughly dozen contenders vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is termed out.

Republican commentator Steve Hilton leads the field with the support of 14% of likely voters, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, at 13%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, received 12%, followed by two Democrats — Rep. Eric Swalwell at 11% and investor Tom Steyer at 10%.

The poll’s margin of error was 3.9%.

In California’s top-two system, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of party — meaning a crowded Democratic field could allow Hilton and Bianco to effectively lock Democrats out of November.

“No telling at this point who the top two candidates are going to be — and whether they’re going to be Democrats or Republicans that are going to be running for governor in November,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC statewide survey director.

Recent polling — both public surveys and private polling commissioned by campaigns — has found a consistent top five. An Emerson College survey released last week found Hilton at 17%, Swalwell and Bianco at 14%, Porter at 10% and Steyer at 9%.

Swalwell and Steyer entered the race late last year, months after Porter, Bianco and Hilton. Swalwell has used his high-profile perch in Congress to remain a visible critic of President Donald Trump, while Steyer has tapped his own wealth to spend more than $27 million on a barrage of television ads.

“When [Swalwell and Steyer] entered the race, support for two Democrats declined: Katie Porter’s support declined and Xavier Becerra’s support declined,” Baldassare said. “That’s where the movement has been.”

Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services and California attorney general, finished at 5% in the PPIC poll — tied with Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, and Betty Yee, the former state controller.

Other Democrats in the poll included San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who received support from 3% of likely voters, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond at 2% and former state Assemblymember Ian Calderon at 1%.

The crowded Democratic field prevented any candidate from reaching the 60% delegate support required to secure the state party’s endorsement at its convention last weekend in San Francisco.

“The Republican vote is going to be split two ways versus a Democratic vote that could be split — I mean, we have nine major candidates, it could be split into pieces,” said Nancy Tung, chair of the San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee. “It’s not a negligible concern; it’s definitely something I think about.”

Baldassare said a Hilton-Bianco general election is possible, “but I wouldn’t say it’s probable.”

The PPIC poll found a smaller share of Republicans (5%) than Democrats (10%) were undecided.

Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Party, said the field would shrink before voting begins in early May.

“I think in many ways the primary process itself is going to do some of the winnowing — whether it is traction that candidates get with voters across the state, those who are able to raise the resources to communicate a message, those who land significant endorsements and supporters.”

But even the landscape of key Democratic endorsements remains splintered. On Tuesday, the powerful union SEIU California stopped short of endorsing anyone in the race, instead issuing an anti-endorsement of Hilton, Bianco and Mahan — a business-friendly Democrat who has sparred with labor in the past.

In a statement, SEIU California President David Huerta added a gentle nudge for some low-polling candidates to begin heading toward the exits.

“SEIU members urge candidates who have not built the coalition, campaign, and resources to compete in a statewide race of this magnitude to seriously reconsider their candidacy and re-focus their leadership on advancing a more just and equitable future for California’s working families,” Huerta said.

KQED’s Scott Shafer contributed to this story.