Who Will Labor Support in the Race for California Governor?

With less than five months until California’s primary election for governor, no candidate has emerged as the consensus choice of the most powerful force in state Democratic politics: organized labor.

Attorney General Rob Bonta, a longtime labor ally, announced this week he would not run for governor, despite behind-the-scenes encouragement from many in the state’s labor movement. His decision increased the likelihood that no single candidate will be able to consolidate labor support, even as a handful of unions have already made early endorsements.

“This is probably the least clear, most muddled gubernatorial primary field we’ve seen in California in more than half a century,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at USC and UC Berkeley. “There are several candidates with solid labor credentials, but no one who stands out to a point where you see unions flocking to them the way you have in most past campaigns.”

Unions remain the lifeblood of Democratic campaigns in the state, Schnur said. The groups bankroll independent political committees that typically spend tens of millions of dollars on television ads and mailers, and their network of members provides favored candidates with a ready-made field operation to knock on doors and make phone calls.

Not since 1990, when Dianne Feinstein defeated John Van de Kamp in the Democratic primary, has labor’s chosen candidate for governor in California failed to make the general election. Union support was a key force in the competitive primary victories of Gray Davis in 1998, Phil Angelides in 2006 and Gavin Newsom in 2018.

There are eight high-profile Democrats and two Republicans vying in June’s primary, in which the top two finishers advance to November, regardless of party.

Many of the Democrats can already tout notable endorsements from unions and labor groups.

Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter has won the backing of the Teamsters, the United Auto Workers and the National Union of Healthcare Workers.

Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, is supported by the State Building and Construction Trades, California State Association of Electrical Workers, and the Peace Officers Research Association of California — which is also endorsing Republican Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County.

Meanwhile, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra is endorsed by the California State Council of Laborers.

But many of the state’s largest and most powerful labor groups are still evaluating the field. That includes the California Labor Federation, SEIU, the California Teachers Association and the California Nurses Association.

“I don’t think it’s possible to get that kind of coalescing behind one candidate,” said Lorena Gonzalez, president of the Labor Federation. “We have almost an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the current field of candidates … we have people who have had long relationships with organized labor.”

The Labor Federation will hold an endorsement vote at its pre-primary convention in March. Large unions typically have an executive team or board of directors that vet candidates through interviews and written questionnaires, before making a recommendation to a larger body of delegates.

Topping the wish list for many union leaders is a governor who will be willing to raise new revenue for the state through taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. Democrats are divided over an effort by a health care workers’ union to place a measure on the November ballot that would enact a 5% tax on Californians with more than $1 billion in assets.

But holding union-friendly positions will only get the candidates so far. Labor leaders want to put their chips behind a candidate who can win.

“The challenge is when there’s so many folks in it, a big part of our calculus always has to be the ability to run a campaign to differentiate yourself and make it into the runoff,” said David Goldberg, president of the California Teachers Association.

No frontrunner has emerged in public polling to date. A December poll from Emerson College found Bianco, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, Republican commentator Steve Hilton and Porter closely bunched at the top of the field.

Given the Labor Fed’s requirement of a supermajority vote among delegates for an endorsement, Gonzalez acknowledged the union could end up issuing a multi-candidate endorsement — or even agree to simply label some candidates “unacceptable.”

“It’s going to be who can win, who is open to discussions and working with the unions,” Gonzalez said. “And sometimes it’s just the old-school — who you’d rather have a beer with.”

At this point in the 2018 campaign, Newsom had already captured the support of many large unions. In the months leading up to the primary, teachers, nurses and state employee unions poured in about $8 million in outside spending to support Newsom in the face of an onslaught of pro-charter school spending backing Villaraigosa.

The universe of big political spenders who could line up against organized labor has only grown since that campaign, said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic strategist.

“There’s a lot more groups these days that have the potential to [spend]: crypto, AI, all these other groups that really didn’t exist in 2018 that now have a pretty big footprint in California,” he added.

If no candidate is able to consolidate labor endorsements in the coming months, unions may instead focus their spending on competitive primaries for Congress and other statewide elections — or use their financial clout to attack any pro-business Democrats (such as San José Mayor Matt Mahan or Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso) who could enter the race.

“Maybe they all say, ‘We’re OK with these three [candidates] but this one we really don’t like,’” Acosta said. “But they have other priorities — they have ballot measures labor is pushing, so they don’t have an unlimited amount of money to play in all these things.”