California’s Pace of Emissions Cuts Is Accelerating, Report Finds

California has accelerated its pace of reducing emissions in recent years, putting the state’s aggressive climate goals within grasping distance, according to a new report.

Still, report authors warned that some of the biggest gains are in sectors that are vulnerable to backsliding under the incoming Donald Trump administration. They also said California will have to accelerate the pace even further to reach the goal of cutting planet-warming emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.

The annual report, published Thursday by nonprofit Next 10, found that total emissions fell by 2.4% from 2021 to 2022, which is the most recent year of data assessed.

“California’s progress in cutting emissions is accelerating,” Next 10 founder F. Noel Perry said. “We’re seeing real-time proof that the state’s climate policies are working.”

In recent years, state emissions were at their lowest in 2020, when much of California came to a standstill amid COVID-19 restrictions. While 2022 numbers did not reach that low, they moved close to it and were just 0.8% higher than they were in 2020.

Steep cuts came from the transportation sector, which is the source of the majority of California’s emissions. Pollution from heavy-duty vehicles fell by 13% from 2021 to 2022, attributed to increases in vehicle fuel economy. Emissions from passenger vehicles fell by 2.4% as sales of electric vehicles grew and fuel economy increased.

The energy sector also saw decreases in emissions.

“California continues to somehow find ways to reduce its electricity generation,” said report author Hoyu Chong. “That’s by deploying more clean and renewable energy, as well as energy efficiency policies.”

While emissions fell in many sectors, they rose in the commercial space. That’s mostly from potent gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning.

The report shows that annual emissions decreased by an average of 2.5% between 2018 and 2022. That number would need to come down to 4% annually to meet California’s 2030 climate targets.

“We absolutely have to reduce emissions by a greater amount between now and 2030, but we’re moving in that direction,” Perry said. “When you take all the climate policies in California and see the progress that we’re making, I think we have a good shot at hitting that.”

Part of this calculation depends on the incoming Trump administration. The federal government sets vehicle emission standards, but the Clean Air Act allows California to put forth its own clean car rules so long as it applies for a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency. The state expanded how many of these waivers it asked for during the Joe Biden administration.

California has relied on these permissions to enforce its nation-leading clean air and climate rules for decades, but Trump revoked some of these waivers in his first term, and promises to do so again in his second.

One waiver currently under consideration at the EPA would allow the state to mandate that all new passenger cars sold be zero-emission by 2035. Trump has said he wants to block this.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office, the California Air Resources Board and the California Energy Commission all did not reply to requests for comment on this report.