California Fails to Meet Climate Change Mandates and Greenhouse Emission Goals, Study Finds

California will fail to meet its ambitious mandates for combating climate change unless it almost triples its rate of reducing greenhouse gases through 2030, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.

After dropping during the pandemic, California’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other climate-warming gases increased 3.4% in 2021, when the economy rebounded. The increase puts California further away from reaching its target mandated under state law: emitting 40% less in 2030 than in 1990 — a feat that will become more expensive and more difficult as time passes, the report’s authors told CalMatters.

“The fact that they need to increase the speed of reduction at about three times faster than they’re actually doing — that does not bode well,” said Stafford Nichols, a researcher at Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles-based economics research firm, and a co-author of the annual California Green Innovation Index released on Thursday.

“As we get closer to that 2030 goal, the fact that we’re further off just means that we have to decrease faster each year.”

The state is even further away from meeting a more aggressive goal set by the Air Resources Board in the state’s new climate blueprint. Under that plan, greenhouse gases must be cut 48% below 1990 levels by 2030. Gov. Gavin Newsom had urged the board to adopt the more difficult goal, calling the new scoping plan (PDF) the “most ambitious set of climate goals of any jurisdiction in the world.”

David Clegern, an air board spokesperson, said in an emailed statement to CalMatters that state officials are confident that California will hit its targets, including its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045.

Clegern said the state is in the midst of updating its climate programs and strengthening regulations, which, he said, “takes time” because they have to “translate into projects and action in the real world.”

“It is more important than ever to transition existing facilities and build clean energy infrastructure,” Clegern said. “This decade is critical for implementation of the state’s plans and policies.” He added, “As we have stated for more than 10 years, California’s climate plans will continue to adjust to what remains a developing threat.”

Greenhouse gases are spewed by an array of sources, mostly from vehicles, industries and power plants that burn fossil fuels, but also from livestock, landfills and other sources.

That’s because California’s drought resulted in less hydroelectric power and more reliance on natural gas to avoid power shortages, according to Leonard. In 2020, the state faced its first non-wildfire rolling blackouts in nearly two decades after record-breaking heat. Last year, the state extended operations at three natural gas plants along the Southern California coast to shore up California’s straining power grid.

Natural gas plants are the largest source (PDF) of greenhouse gases among California’s in-state producers of electricity. California has a law mandating zero-carbon, all-renewable electricity by 2045, but it has a long way to go: About 42% of power generated in the state came from natural gas in 2022.

The report also highlighted cement facilities, saying California has some of the planet’s most polluting cement plants. As more housing is built and more cement is produced, the authors recommended “urgent action” to cut those emissions.

California’s seven cement plants emit about 7.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases per year (PDF), according to the air board, which has a working group to decarbonize the industry. Some factories are turning to low-carbon fuels, including the burning of tires.

Carbon capture and storage technology may also be used at cement plants because they are so difficult to decarbonize. These facilities capture emissions from industrial plants and inject them underground.

“California’s cement plants are an example of the challenge. Our cement is more carbon-intensive because we have older plants,” said Clegern of the air board.

​​Wildfires were another large emitter of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases in 2021.

On an optimistic note, the report acknowledged that California has some of the lowest per-capita emissions in the U.S., and is the third-most carbon-efficient state, following New York and Massachusetts. However, many of the easiest and least costly steps have already been implemented. So, finding room for future reductions will be more challenging in the coming years.

“The state has shown that it is possible to grow the economy while lowering emissions,” the California Green Innovation Index said. “It will take more action, time and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope.”

The new analysis is the most recent example of an outside entity warning that California’s climate goals face major hurdles. The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office said last year that California lacked a “clear strategy” for meeting its 2030 targets.

Also, last month, the state’s advisory committee for its controversial cap and trade market noted (PDF) that the state was not on track to meet 2030 targets. Cap and trade is the state’s market that allows companies to buy and trade credits for reducing greenhouse gases.

“Too often the fact of California’s historical accomplishments is cited as evidence that state policy is on track, when often the pace of change going forward falls well short of what is required to meet the state’s next climate targets,” Danny Cullenward, an economist and vice chair of the Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee told CalMatters.

“Unfortunately,” he said, “the state is not on track for its 2030 climate target.”