Will Newsom’s Maps Bring the Fight Democrats Desire?

[This column was reported for Political Breakdown, a bimonthly newsletter offering analysis and context on Bay Area and California political news. Click here to subscribe.]

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to redraw California’s congressional district lines may provide more than just a boost to Democrats’ chances at winning the House — it could also satisfy liberal voters itching to adopt a more bare-knuckles approach to politics.

In his soft rollout of a plan to combat potential pro-Republican maps in Texas, Newsom has made clear that he wishes it didn’t have to come to this — that he supports California’s nonpartisan redistricting system. But he argues Republicans have left him no choice but to match their map machinations with a gerrymander of his own.

It may be the message that fits the moment for Democrats.

Back in March, I told you about an NBC News poll that asked Democratic voters whether they preferred members of Congress to compromise with President Donald Trump or stick to their positions, even if it led to gridlock.

In April 2017, months into Trump’s first term, 59% of Democratic voters favored compromise, while 33% wanted Democrats in Washington to make a stand. This year, the numbers flipped. Sixty-five percent of Democrats said they wanted leaders to hold their ground, compared with 32% who preferred consensus-building.

Yes, it’s just one poll. But consider the boisterous protests and rallies this spring and summer and the growing displeasure with party leadership. It’s clear Democrats are spoiling for a fight.

That sentiment is shaping the pro-gerrymandering argument we’re starting to hear from Newsom’s allies in Sacramento. The goal: frame the map fight about Democrats vs. Republicans, California vs. Texas — not fair mapmaking vs. partisan redraws.

“California cannot stand by with one hand tied behind its back, playing by a different set of rules,” Attorney General Rob Bonta said Tuesday. “While Texas runs roughshod over the political redistricting process to clearly try to get political advantage to prevail in the next set of elections.”

The challenge for the potential “no” campaign will be convincing California Democrats that the benefits of nonpartisan mapmaking outweigh the urge to win back the House at all costs.

In 2021, I covered the Citizens Redistricting Commission as it drew California’s current political lines. The group heard months of testimony — largely on Zoom — about the local ties that Californians felt should inform their political maps: the geographic borders, business corridors and places of worship that defined what the commission called “communities of interest.”

It was not an Emmy-worthy viewing experience. But there are success stories to tell.

Take the Berryessa neighborhood of San José, a predominantly Asian community with sizable Chinese, Vietnamese and Filipino populations.

Before 2010, when our political lines were drawn to benefit incumbents, Berryessa was split among four state Assembly and two state Senate districts. That fragmentation left Berryessa residents with too little clout in any one district to command the attention of their representatives in Sacramento.

When the independent redistricting panel took over after the 2010 census, commissioners responded to appeals from Berryessa residents and consolidated the community into a single House, Senate and Assembly district.

Handing redistricting back to politicians, said former redistricting commissioner Patricia Sinay, “will make it harder for communities to advocate for resources they need to thrive.”

Assemblymember Alex Lee, who now represents Berryessa, was one of the first Democrats to oppose Newsom’s move.

The loudest opposition so far has been from California Republicans, who stand to be wiped off the political map in a potential redraw.

On Political Breakdown, political data analyst Paul Mitchell said he believes California Democrats could flip five seats into their column through a partisan gerrymander, a crucial margin in a closely divided House.

One of the lowest-hanging targets is the 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley. The seat stretches from the suburbs east of Sacramento down the spine of the state. But to the west lie reliably blue districts filled with Democratic voters that mapmakers could add to Kiley’s district.

“His district could come…towards the more Democratic area and he could go from a district that is marginally Republican-advantage to being one that is a pretty safe Democratic seat,” Mitchell said.

Democratic strategists see potential redistricting-fueled gains across the state. Consultant Vance Ulrich posted a hypothetical map on X that would give Democrats a registration advantage in 49 of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

But it’s important to keep in mind that registration on a map doesn’t tell us who will actually cast a ballot next year — or how they’ll vote.

“All this work in Texas or in California to create seats that are going to be potentially pickups for the parties, those need also elections and candidates,” Mitchell said. “So they aren’t just magically a Democrat or Republican seat until after you have an election.”