In April, Gov. Gavin Newsom released a cheery California tourism campaign aimed at “our neighbors up north”: Canadians.
“Sure, you-know-who’s trying to stir things up back in D.C., but don’t let that ruin your beach plans,” Newsom proclaimed in the video, calling California “the ultimate playground — 2,000 miles from Washington and a world away in mindset.”
But Canadians were not convinced.
Online, a flood of comments pushed back against the commercial, fueled by headlines focusing on denials of visas to international students, detention of tourists to the U.S. and deportations of immigrants — and even some U.S. citizens — which have more people feeling anxious about entering the United States under President Donald Trump’s second administration.
Of particular national relevance to Canadians was the two-week detention of a Vancouver resident by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which made international news. In her essay in The Guardian, Jasmine Mooney, who had been attempting to renew a U.S. work visa at the San Diego border, said she’d “felt like I had been kidnapped.”
“Can you guarantee ICE won’t detain or jail a Canadian for their posts & comments on their phones or tablets?” one user posted in reply to Newsom’s video on social media platform X. “Bro sorry but it’s not worth risking getting ‘accidentally’ deported to an off country gulag just to be told ‘Too bad’ when ordered brought back by a judge,” another wrote, in reference to the case of Maryland resident Kilmar Ábrego García, an immigrant who was deported to an El Salvador megaprison without due process in what the White House called an “administrative error.”
“I love your state so much (and the fact it’s blue),” another social media post read. “[B]ut there’s no chance I’m stepping foot in any part of America due to your president.”
Visit California, a nonprofit organization that works closely with the state’s Office of Tourism, projects that there may be a 9% decrease in international visitors in 2025. The biggest expected declines come from Canadian and Mexican tourists, who visit California more — and spend more here — than other international visitors.
“On a personal level, I thought [Newsom’s] ad was quite refreshing,” said McKenzie McMillan, a travel adviser with The Travel Group, a Vancouver-based agency.
“We have obviously seen a significant amount of outreach from suppliers in the United States saying, ‘We love Canada and we love Canadians, please still come down,” McMillan said. “Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to move the needle that much.”
KQED Forum spoke with McMillan and other figures in the world of tourism about what they’re seeing on the ground — and the scale of the potential impact on California, especially.
This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.
McMillan: We generally see a huge influx of travel to the U.S., especially between British Columbia and California, going into the summer.
From Vancouver alone in the summer, we have around 30 daily flights between five to six California destinations. San Francisco, Los Angeles, Palm Springs, San Diego, Sacramento, Orange County. Those are all places where we’re having multiple daily flights and those flights would be sold out … So this is a seismic shift in consumer patterns for California.
Also, for people in places like Vancouver, there is a feeling of sort of a shared cultural connection, and that extends to other coastal states — Oregon and Washington — as well. It’s a comfortable place, it’s a safe place for people to travel.
McMillan: [The worry] really began in about February. We had started to kind of hear from travelers who were a little bit apprehensive about visiting the United States. And then … we saw a pretty much near-complete collapse of all future bookings to California and throughout the entire United States. We saw about 30% of our business cancel that had already been booked. And then about a 90% drop in all future bookings.
We’re now starting to see both [AirCanada and WestJet, the country’s two largest airlines] either reducing service or dropping routes into the United States … The news just came out that WestJet dropped nine of the routes they were anticipating for the summer.
There’s two main reasons that we’re hearing: The first reason is a general anger towards the U.S. government, towards the comments about a 51st state, about annexing Canada, as well as the tariff threat.
What we’re seeing now is a lot more fear-based and a lot of clients are very concerned about just the act of crossing the border due to increased scrutiny at the border at both airports and at the land crossings for Canadians: either based on their immigration status … but also about their personal views towards the U.S. government and [if] that that could deem them inadmissible to the country.
That second reason is also causing a bit of a reduction in our corporate travel … being here in Vancouver, we have a huge amount of business between British Columbia and California, whether it’s the tech sector into the Bay Area or the entertainment sector into Los Angeles. And we’re starting to see now that many companies are choosing not to allow their employees to travel, due to the fear of issues that they could have at the border.
Hailey Branson-Potts, staff writer for the Los Angeles Times: There’s just kind of an international distaste right now for President Trump’s economic policies. Canada — they actually updated their travel warnings to visitors a couple [of] weeks ago. They warned that border agents have the ability to search people’s personal devices, to request passwords.
There’s been a lot of this concern in Germany as well. Reports of people who’ve not been allowed to enter [the U.S.] despite having valid visas.
Branson-Potts: [Visit California and the governor’s office] are predicting in 2025, a 9% decline in international visits compared with last year. So that brings us down to about 15 million people.
We are still recovering from a big drop in international visitation and visitation overall since the pandemic. So this is a big blow.
Pete Hillan, spokesperson for the California Hotel and Lodging Association: It’s huge. There’s no doubt that it’s one of the key economic sectors for the state, and to some degree for the nation. We’re the fourth [largest] economic engine in the globe. You look at that proportionally in what travel, tourism, hospitality really mean as a foundation for the state. It’s hugely significant.
Kenny Cassady, director of business development, Acme House Company in Palm Springs: We are experiencing [Canadian] guests who may have been coming to us … who may be coming to Palm Springs for years, decades even — we’re experiencing those folks not booking their return travel for next season.
Hillan: International travelers are far more desirable because they tend to stay longer and they tend to spend more. They’re traveling a longer distance.
[Domestic tourism] is likely not going to make up for that difference.
During the pandemic, we were shut down for about 18 months. When you have that kind of impact, it doesn’t rebound overnight, and so we were just getting back to the level of tourism it was pre-pandemic … And now to have this sort of unforced error, if you will … It’s a significant hit.
Hillan: Hotels have what’s called a TOT tax, which stands for transient occupancy tax. That goes only to the municipality — it is not shared like other taxes. So when a city’s budget has a deficit, which many of our cities do, unfortunately, right now, they are very dependent on that tax. When we don’t have as many visitors, it impacts the services — and to some degree, the tax status of our municipalities.
Cassady: When any travelers are here, whether they’re snowbirds or domestic or from Los Angeles or San Diego travelers, they’re dining in the restaurants, attending shows and events, going to fundraisers and donating to nonprofit organizations. They’re participating just like a local would because they’re here for such a long period of time.
And I think without those folks being here, it’s going to ripple out into sales tax and support for local organizations. And there are definitely jobs that are probably on the line. If a restaurant is not going to be as busy, they’re not gonna need as much staff.
Branson-Potts: There are small towns there that are also relying upon this tourism, and they are very, very scared.
Palm Springs Mayor Ron deHarte, just like Newsom, posted his own social video a couple of days ago, addressing Canadians. And he said, “Please know that you’re welcome and appreciated here.” So this is being taken very, very seriously.
Hillan: In 2026, we have the World Cup coming, and then in 2028, we have the Olympics.
And so I think the reason we remain optimistic, even though it’s a difficult period right now, is because those are huge international events, and are going to attract visitors from across the globe — visitors that will be staying for a long time.
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