The Race for Oakland Mayor Is Still Far From the Finish Line

Oakland residents woke up Wednesday morning to a razor-thin margin in the city’s race for mayor, with a resolution days or even weeks away.

Former City Councilmember Loren Taylor narrowly leads longtime U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee, both in first-choice votes and in the instant runoff that factors in voters’ alternate choices under the city’s ranked-choice system.

The runoff margin between Taylor and Lee is just 1,118 votes, with slightly more than 49,000 ballots counted. However, an estimated 42,000 additional ballots still need to be processed, according to Alameda County Registrar of Voters Tim Dupuis.

The frenetic three-month campaign now decelerates to a glacial routine of vote-counting and results-watching. The next update from the Alameda County Registrar of Voters’ Office is expected on Friday. After that, it could be another week before additional totals are released.

One thing was clear from Tuesday’s results: Taylor had turned what had seemed just months ago like a coronation of Lee into a true contest.

Lee entered the race with decades of electoral success in the East Bay and a phalanx of notable endorsements. But Taylor was able to draw on voter frustration with crime, homelessness and city management, and turn out the Oakland voters and donors who have traditionally supported more centrist candidates and causes.

“I was just honestly surprised at how close the race has become,” state Sen. Jesse Arreguin, who represents Oakland and supported Lee, told KQED. “In reality, it shouldn’t be that close, but I think Mr. Taylor has run a really strong campaign, and it’s a testament to his dedication.”

For all his efforts, Taylor may still come up short. Both campaigns went into election day expecting later-arriving ballots to break for Lee.

Tuesday’s results largely reflected mail ballots cast before Election Day. Alameda County election officials will continue to process mail ballots as they arrive, while they work to confirm the eligibility of voters who registered as they cast a ballot in person.

Additionally, voters whose ballot envelope signature did not match their voter file will be contacted by election officials and given time to confirm their vote, a process known as “ballot curing.” Taylor’s campaign hinted late Tuesday that they would pursue a campaign to contact likely supporters whose ballots require curing.

This won’t be Taylor’s first rodeo with the torturous vote-watching process. In 2022, he led the race for mayor for more than a week after Election Day, until late-arriving ballots lifted Sheng Thao to victory.

“We’re not sure how it’s going to end up,” Taylor told supporters on Tuesday night.

“Because things look good now, but we have been here before.”

On the campaign trail, Taylor warned voters that a “broken” city could not be fixed by a candidate supported by the political establishment. And he aligned himself with Matt Mahan and Daniel Lurie, the neighboring mayors of San José and San Francisco, who won on pledges to bring outside perspectives and steely focus to City Hall.

Political strategist Dan Newman said the initial results in Oakland fit with this “broader Bay Area dynamic.”

“It is somewhat shocking that someone as revered as Barbara Lee could struggle to win,” Newman said. “She’s truly a beloved icon and universally respected, titanic leader.”

“But right now, these cities run by Democrats are acknowledging that they are facing big challenges,” Newman added. “And they are looking for people who are almost post-partisan in their single-minded focus on outcomes.”

Taylor also aimed to tap into the wide popularity of the recall campaigns that ousted Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price from office last November — efforts Lee opposed.

In the early weeks of the campaign, it was unclear whether the big money that supported the recall would coalesce behind Taylor. As the election neared, the cavalry arrived. Outside groups spent more than half a million dollars to boost Taylor, with some of the largest spending coming from pro-recall groups.

But Taylor’s financial edge could not turn this race into a clear referendum on the recall. Instead, the early returns reflect some of Oakland’s traditional geographic divides, with the moderate candidate, in this case Taylor, drawing the bulk of his support from voters in the hills.

“The recall vote and the Taylor vote did not align perfectly,” said Shawn Lee, a board member for the East Bay Young Democrats. “You have lots of precincts voting for Lee in Deep East Oakland and in the north. The north voted against the recall and the east didn’t, but both are going for Lee now.”

Drawing upon decades of goodwill and voter support in the East Bay, Lee pledged to unify the city after the divisive recall campaigns. And she remains the region’s strongest connection to its proud activist past.

Speaking to supporters on Tuesday night, Lee recalled her first Oakland race, in 1973, when she helped raise money for the campaigns of Black Panther Party co-founder Bobby Seale for mayor and Elaine Brown for city council.

“During that campaign, it was all about the power of the people, right?” Lee said. “In this campaign, what you all have done is you’ve reminded our great city that it’s a people’s movement, that it is the voice of the people.”

Just then, Lee spotted Elaine Brown in the crowd.

“Good to see you, my sister,” Lee said. “We’re gonna have a street named after Elaine.”

Outside of a West Oakland voting location, Renee Hayes told KQED that she supported the Thao recall, but backed Lee in this race.

“I know more about her than anybody,” Hayes said. “I think she’d be good for helping us get some things we need in Oakland.”

Both Lee and Taylor made the teetering city budget a priority in their campaigns.

But a drawn-out vote count could reduce the impact either candidate has on next year’s spending plan — which the mayor is expected to submit to the council by May 1.

“I voted because the city is facing a major budget shortfall and it’s kind of in chaos — it’s hard to get any services,” said Eugene Hecht, a voter in West Oakland. “I voted for Loren Taylor, but that said, I don’t know that he could do a better job than Barbara Lee could or any of these other people. I just don’t know.”