Voters settled House primaries across California on Tuesday, with all eyes on a handful of swing districts whose November matchups will help determine which party controls Congress for the next two years.
All of California’s 52 congressional seats had primary elections. The top two vote-getters in each race will advance to the general election regardless of their political party. About 10 of those seats figure to be competitive, and a handful are considered toss-ups.
These races will be some of the most competitive in the country this fall, and the outcomes will help determine which political party controls Congress. Right now, Republicans have 219 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats have 213. There are three vacancies.
“Californians are used to our state being a national leader, and our role in the 2024 elections is no different,” said California U.S. Rep. Pete Aguilar, chair of the House Democratic Caucus. “I’m going to do everything in my power to ensure that we’re successful this November.”
California Republican Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said voters are “fed up.”
“Voters are ready to send a clear message to radical, far-left Democrats this November that they’ve had enough, and it’s time to put California and our nation on a pathway to success once again,” she said.
The outcome of some races won’t be known for days or even weeks. That’s because most people vote by mail with ballots that, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day, can arrive up to a week later and still be counted.
That has made counting ballots in California a weekslong drama that, for close contests, can transform Election Day into an election month.
Here’s a look at the most competitive House races in California:
District 22: Political infighting leads to lockout fears
Republican incumbent David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas were leading the field in early returns in this Central Valley farm district, which Democrats have targeted as a crucial pickup opportunity.
Republican rancher Chris Mathys and Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado were trailing.
Democrats have feared that Salas and Hurtado — two state lawmakers who are well known in the district — could splinter the Democratic vote and allow both Republicans to advance to the general election. That would be a major embarrassment for Democrats while dealing a major blow to their chances of retaking the House.
Salas has the backing of the Democratic Party and prominent state officials like Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom recently made a fundraising pitch on Salas’ behalf, warning of a “DEEP risk of having two Republicans make the general election.”
District 47: Replacing Katie Porter
Republican Scott Baugh and Democratic state Sen. Dave Min were out front in early returns to fill the seat that incumbent Democrat Katie Porter vacated to run for the U.S. Senate.
Baugh, a former state Assembly member, narrowly lost to Porter in 2022 in a district that had once been reliably Republican. His party sees the seat as a top pick-up opportunity in November.
Democrat Joanna Weiss, who founded an organization to promote progressive candidates, was behind Min and Baugh.
The race between Min and Weiss was one of the nastiest this cycle, with each campaign relentlessly attacking the other. That also meant they were handing easy general election fodder to Republicans.
