"Duncan Hunter's legal liabilities were the only thing that created a political vulnerability for Republicans in this district," said UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser. "Remember, this is a district that Donald Trump carried by 15 percentage points."
Hunter, already contending with at least two well-known Republican challengers, faced grim prospects for winning another term.
Conservative talk show host Carl DeMaio has $1.2 million in the bank for a campaign against Hunter, according to DeMaio's latest campaign finance filings with the Federal Election Commission. DeMaio, who previously ran for office in San Diego, will face former Republican congressman Darrell Issa, who decided not to run for reelection in a nearby congressional district two years ago.
Today DeMaio seemed eager to use that fact against Issa.
"I think the voters in the 50th want a fighter, not a quitter," DeMaio told KQED. "And Darrell Issa has shown that he's someone who runs from fights. He let the president down by quitting his reelection bid in 2018, along with 39 other Republicans ... who were cowardly and quit on the president. They cut and run."
Democrat Campa-Najjar is also running again and has more than $850,000 on hand, according to FEC filings. Issa has a personal fortune in addition to a list of campaign donors from his previous runs for office. Hunter by comparison had just $289,000 in his campaign account.
Reached by phone, Campa-Najjar professed regret at Hunter's demise, adding that it's time for the district to move forward.
"It's bittersweet," Campa-Najjar said. "No constituent wishes for their congressman to plead guilty and face jail time. "I respect his service as a Marine and the time he spent in Congress, especially before the swamp sunk its teeth into him."
UC San Diego's Kousser said Campa-Najjar "ran a very strong campaign in 2018 and has really coalesced Democratic support around him. I think we'll see him emerge from the top-two primary, but then face an uphill battle in November against whichever Republican candidate untarnished by the Duncan Hunter scandal emerges from the primary."
DeMaio dismissed Campa-Najjar as "a socialist" for his support of the Green New Deal plan for reducing carbon emissions to fight climate change.
"I’m not a coastal elite or a millionaire," Campa-Najjar countered. DeMaio "is just trying to use scare tactics to deflect from his own record. He calls himself a fighter, but I call him a loser," a reference to DeMaio's previous failed bids for elected office.
Depending on when Hunter resigns his seat, there will either be a special election to fill it before the March 3 primary, with a runoff likely in May, or the election would be consolidated with the March primary and November general election in 2020.