Poll: Newsom Maintains Lead in Governor's Race, GOP's John Cox in Second

A new poll could allay fears by the California Republican Party that they'll be shut out of the November election.

A survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom with a comfortable lead over all his gubernatorial rivals, with Republican businessman John Cox inching into second place, just ahead of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Under California's primary system, the top two vote-getters in June will advance to the November runoff, regardless of their party.

Newsom, a liberal Democrat from San Francisco Bay Area, would surely rather face off against Cox -- or any other Republican -- than Villaraigosa, another Democrat who's has been attempting to run to the right of the former San Francisco mayor.

"Gavin Newsom has definitely shown himself now to be not just a leader in all three of the polls that we've had but really distinguished himself from the other candidates in this gubernatorial race," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC's president and CEO. "And so there's a lot of uncertainty about who that second place is going to go to in the top-two gubernatorial primary."

The poll has Newsom with 28 percent support among likely voters, to Cox's 14 percent and Villaraigosa's 12 percent.

Republican Assemblyman Travis Allen enjoys 10 percent support among likely voters; state Treasurer John Chiang has about 6 percent and former state School Superintendent Delaine Eastin is at 5 percent. Chiang and Eastin are both Democrats.

But, Baldassare noted, nearly a quarter of likely voters are still undecided. They are starting to pay attention, though.

"What really struck me more than anything is that there was a substantial increase in the number of likely voters who said that they're following news about the candidates," he said, noting that about 25 percent of likely voters said they were paying attention in December, and 30 percent in January.

Now, nearly half of voters are closely following the news.

"This seems to have favored both the frontrunner, Gavin Newsom but also Republican John Cox," he added.

The survey also found U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein retaining a double-digit lead over her challenger, state Sen. Kevin de León. Feinstein, who has held the office since 1992, has 42 percent support among likely voters to de León's 16 percent.

Thirty-nine percent of likely voters remain undecided.

"The Feinstein numbers have to be viewed in the context of her overall approval rating," Baldassare said.

That approval rating, among all likely voters: 54 percent -- a number Baldassare said hasn't budged since PPIC last asked the question in the fall. A majority of Feinstein's party also support the incumbent, he said.

"Democrats are, by by and large in California, happy with the job she's doing currently in Congress. They're not happy with Congress -- but many approve of her job performance. Seventy-five percent do. And that really solidifies her her role with Democratic voters in this Senate race."

The poll of 1,706 adult California residents was conducted on telephones between March 4 and 13.