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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/flooding\">Floods\u003c/a> are the most common and expensive disaster in the U.S., and this winter California may be in for a lot of record flooding. It’s looking \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">extremely likely\u003c/a> there will be a “very strong” El Niño this fall and winter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasters expect \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook\">stormier weather\u003c/a> than usual for this time of year, which will lead to potential flooding. Higher than normal ocean water levels, due in part to the sea expanding with elevated temperatures, have already caused serious erosion and flooding along the California coastline. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a post on his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/44119\">Weather West\u003c/a> blog, climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote, “Increased coastal flooding [is] already occurring, and will rise yet further,” and that the risks of increased flooding would start to increase around December. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The times around the highest tides of the year are especially risky for flooding. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">King tides\u003c/a> this year will hit the coast Nov. 24 to 26, Dec. 23 to 25, and Jan. 21 to 22. The hotter ocean water means the tides will run one to two feet above normal. If a storm overlaps with the king tides, Swain foresees likely widespread, “probably historic,” flooding. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Normal property insurance does not cover flood damage. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that just an inch of water in a home can cost $25,000 in repairs. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Many at risk in the state are not protected with adequate insurance, according to data on flood zones in California and flood insurance coverage shared with KQED by Insurify, a company that allows shoppers to compare policies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We’ve seen from disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton from 2024 that a lot of people who get impacted don’t have flood insurance,” said Matt Brannon, senior economic analyst at the company. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In some of the hardest-hit areas, such as around Asheville, North Carolina, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/12/flood-insurance-hurricane-milton-helene\">fewer than 1%\u003c/a> of homes had flood insurance when Helene hit. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How can you make sure you’re ready if your home, apartment, belongings or car is damaged in floodwaters? Keep reading for what to know about El Niño, flooding and insurance in the coming months.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have home insurance — am I covered for flooding? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One big thing a lot of people don’t know: A home insurance policy that covers “water damage” generally doesn’t cover damage from floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That’s because water damage would cover accidental damage from an overflowing faucet or broken pipe — but not from a river overspilling its banks or heavy rains causing water to flood a basement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many people are surprised to learn they are not covered for flooding by standard insurance. This is “one of the bigger misconceptions in all of home insurance,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/06/20/780393.htm\">2024 survey\u003c/a> by an insurance industry group, more than half of respondents were unaware that flood damage isn’t included in a standard homeowners policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brannon recently looked at how many high flood-risk homes in California are not covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, using public data. Of the 183,000 homes in California’s FEMA-designated high-risk flood zones, 65% do not have an NFIP flood-insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why that matters: This program is the typical route for homeowners to access coverage. While it is possible to buy flood insurance from a private company, NFIP policies make up the vast majority.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We wanted to get an idea of how many homes in flood areas in California have insurance coverage for flooding specifically,” he said. “And it turns out that the majority of people in these high-risk areas do not have flood insurance, about two-thirds of them.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001560\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A house in the Panhandle Annex neighborhood in Richmond on July 21, 2026. Houses in this neighborhood that are not elevated from the street are susceptible to flooding. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He found a similar story with homes at risk of flooding in the Bay Area. Santa Clara County is the most exposed, with 74% of the county’s high-risk for flood homes, such as along Coyote, Pacheco, Uvas and Ross creeks, without a federal policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Solano County, 71% of homes in the high-risk area lack these protections, 66% in Contra Costa County and 61% in Sonoma County. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The story that the data tells for us is that flooding is on the way for California, most likely, and that a lot of people who could be impacted very severely do not have insurance coverage that would protect them,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>How can I tell if I’m at high risk? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Type your address into the \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a> to get an idea. The lower your risk, the cheaper the flood insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You may need to zoom into the map for the full picture. Special flood hazard areas are marked in light blue and blue and red stripes. Areas with elevated flood risk or future flood risk are marked in orange and in grey stripes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1284\" height=\"759\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002564\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508.jpg 1284w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-160x94-1-698f5ddd.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-766x453-1-4dcc53cd.jpg 766w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-1141x674-1-0906a5e2.jpg 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1284px) 100vw, 1284px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A FEMA flood map outlines risk in Petaluma. (Courtesy of FEMA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>How do I get flood insurance? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can get a quote for a federal policy online through \u003ca href=\"https://www.floodsmart.gov/policy-quote/\">the NFIP website\u003c/a> or through an insurance agent or broker. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can also call your insurer and ask for a “flood endorsement,” which is an optional add-on to include flood coverage in your existing policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But if you are looking for a policy ahead of this year’s winter storm season, get on it soon. The federal policies take 30 days to go into effect from the date you buy them and pay the premium, so time is of the essence. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy nonprofit based in California, recommended you also ask for a quote for flood insurance from a private flood company — to compare to what your current home insurer quotes you for that flood endorsement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The federal flood insurance program covers policyholders up to $250,000 max to repair flood damage. If you pay extra for contents coverage, you can get up to $100,000 for your belongings, such as clothes, furniture and electronics. The program will not cover temporary rent and expenses if you can’t live in your home after the flood. Private flood policies may provide this coverage. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>What questions should I ask my insurance agent? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In their “El Niño Preparedness” \u003ca href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hOBvKIvn7rEdS_uvAju78gD48-jLXZ_t/view?usp=sharing\">tip sheet\u003c/a>, United Policyholders suggested asking: \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>How much will it cost to insure my home and belongings for flood damage?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Can you help me compare an NFIP policy versus a private flood policy versus adding a “flood endorsement” to my home insurance policy?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Does a “flood endorsement” insure my home for more than $250,000?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Will this policy cover temporary rent expenses? \u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>Would flood damage to my home be covered by federal disaster assistance?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not likely. Federal disaster money is only available when the president issues a disaster declaration, and most floods don’t result in this outcome, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last month, FEMA officials told states they should make sure they have enough staff and financial reserves to \u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120\">handle most emergencies\u003c/a> on their own. This echoes \u003ca href=\"https://transportation.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408317#:~:text=FEMA%20was%20not%20designed%20to,to%20quickly%20respond%20to%20emergencies.\">other statements\u003c/a> made by federal officials that FEMA should not be considered first responders. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, any disaster assistance is usually a loan that has to be repaid with interest. The loan can help with some immediate costs but isn’t enough for serious home repairs. By contrast, money paid out by your flood insurance isn’t a loan and doesn’t have to be paid back. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have rental insurance. Does that cover floods? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Generally, it does not. But you \u003cem>can\u003c/em> buy renters flood insurance to protect your belongings. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typically, your landlord’s insurance will cover structural damage to the property but not to your things. A renter’s flood insurance policy likewise doesn’t cover any damage to a home or apartment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For more on this topic, visit KQED’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11938251/renters-was-your-home-damaged-by-rain-or-floods-heres-what-to-do\">guide\u003c/a> on what to do if your home is damaged by floods.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>What about my car if it floods while parked? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Flood insurance generally won’t help if floodwaters damage your car, as it usually only applies to your home. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you want your auto policy to cover damage from floods or other natural disasters, you need comprehensive coverage. Brannon estimates about half of drivers carry bare-bones auto insurance.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/flooding\">Floods\u003c/a> are the most common and expensive disaster in the U.S., and this winter California may be in for a lot of record flooding. It’s looking \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">extremely likely\u003c/a> there will be a “very strong” El Niño this fall and winter. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/flooding\">Floods\u003c/a> are the most common and expensive disaster in the U.S., and this winter California may be in for a lot of record flooding. It’s looking \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">extremely likely\u003c/a> there will be a “very strong” El Niño this fall and winter. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook\">stormier weather\u003c/a> than usual for this time of year, which will lead to potential flooding. Higher than normal ocean water levels, due in part to the sea expanding with elevated temperatures, have already caused serious erosion and flooding along the California coastline. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Forecasters expect \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook\">stormier weather\u003c/a> than usual for this time of year, which will lead to potential flooding. Higher than normal ocean water levels, due in part to the sea expanding with elevated temperatures, have already caused serious erosion and flooding along the California coastline. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In a post on his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/44119\">Weather West\u003c/a> blog, climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote, “Increased coastal flooding [is] already occurring, and will rise yet further,” and that the risks of increased flooding would start to increase around December. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In a post on his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/44119\">Weather West\u003c/a> blog, climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote, “Increased coastal flooding [is] already occurring, and will rise yet further,” and that the risks of increased flooding would start to increase around December. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The times around the highest tides of the year are especially risky for flooding. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">King tides\u003c/a> this year will hit the coast Nov. 24 to 26, Dec. 23 to 25, and Jan. 21 to 22. The hotter ocean water means the tides will run one to two feet above normal. If a storm overlaps with the king tides, Swain foresees likely widespread, “probably historic,” flooding. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The times around the highest tides of the year are especially risky for flooding. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">King tides\u003c/a> this year will hit the coast Nov. 24 to 26, Dec. 23 to 25, and Jan. 21 to 22. The hotter ocean water means the tides will run one to two feet above normal. If a storm overlaps with the king tides, Swain foresees likely widespread, “probably historic,” flooding. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Normal property insurance does not cover flood damage. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that just an inch of water in a home can cost $25,000 in repairs. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Many at risk in the state are not protected with adequate insurance, according to data on flood zones in California and flood insurance coverage shared with KQED by Insurify, a company that allows shoppers to compare policies.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Normal property insurance does not cover flood damage. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that just an inch of water in a home can cost $25,000 in repairs. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Many at risk in the state are not protected with adequate insurance, according to data on flood zones in California and flood insurance coverage shared with KQED by Insurify, a company that allows shoppers to compare policies.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen from disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton from 2024 that a lot of people who get impacted don’t have flood insurance,” said Matt Brannon, senior economic analyst at the company. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen from disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton from 2024 that a lot of people who get impacted don’t have flood insurance,” said Matt Brannon, senior economic analyst at the company. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In some of the hardest-hit areas, such as around Asheville, North Carolina, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/12/flood-insurance-hurricane-milton-helene\">fewer than 1%\u003c/a> of homes had flood insurance when Helene hit. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In some of the hardest-hit areas, such as around Asheville, North Carolina, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/12/flood-insurance-hurricane-milton-helene\">fewer than 1%\u003c/a> of homes had flood insurance when Helene hit. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>How can you make sure you’re ready if your home, apartment, belongings or car is damaged in floodwaters? Keep reading for what to know about El Niño, flooding and insurance in the coming months.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>How can you make sure you’re ready if your home, apartment, belongings or car is damaged in floodwaters? Keep reading for what to know about El Niño, flooding and insurance in the coming months.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have home insurance — am I covered for flooding? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have home insurance — am I covered for flooding? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>One big thing a lot of people don’t know: A home insurance policy that covers “water damage” generally doesn’t cover damage from floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>One big thing a lot of people don’t know: A home insurance policy that covers “water damage” generally doesn’t cover damage from floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That’s because water damage would cover accidental damage from an overflowing faucet or broken pipe — but not from a river overspilling its banks or heavy rains causing water to flood a basement. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That’s because water damage would cover accidental damage from an overflowing faucet or broken pipe — but not from a river overspilling its banks or heavy rains causing water to flood a basement. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Many people are surprised to learn they are not covered for flooding by standard insurance. This is “one of the bigger misconceptions in all of home insurance,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Many people are surprised to learn they are not covered for flooding by standard insurance. This is “one of the bigger misconceptions in all of home insurance,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/06/20/780393.htm\">2024 survey\u003c/a> by an insurance industry group, more than half of respondents were unaware that flood damage isn’t included in a standard homeowners policy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/06/20/780393.htm\">2024 survey\u003c/a> by an insurance industry group, more than half of respondents were unaware that flood damage isn’t included in a standard homeowners policy.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brannon recently looked at how many high flood-risk homes in California are not covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, using public data. Of the 183,000 homes in California’s FEMA-designated high-risk flood zones, 65% do not have an NFIP flood-insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Brannon recently looked at how many high flood-risk homes in California are not covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, using public data. Of the 183,000 homes in California’s FEMA-designated high-risk flood zones, 65% do not have an NFIP flood-insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Why that matters: This program is the typical route for homeowners to access coverage. While it is possible to buy flood insurance from a private company, NFIP policies make up the vast majority.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Why that matters: This program is the typical route for homeowners to access coverage. While it is possible to buy flood insurance from a private company, NFIP policies make up the vast majority.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We wanted to get an idea of how many homes in flood areas in California have insurance coverage for flooding specifically,” he said. “And it turns out that the majority of people in these high-risk areas do not have flood insurance, about two-thirds of them.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We wanted to get an idea of how many homes in flood areas in California have insurance coverage for flooding specifically,” he said. “And it turns out that the majority of people in these high-risk areas do not have flood insurance, about two-thirds of them.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001560\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A house in the Panhandle Annex neighborhood in Richmond on July 21, 2026. Houses in this neighborhood that are not elevated from the street are susceptible to flooding.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He found a similar story with homes at risk of flooding in the Bay Area. Santa Clara County is the most exposed, with 74% of the county’s high-risk for flood homes, such as along Coyote, Pacheco, Uvas and Ross creeks, without a federal policy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>He found a similar story with homes at risk of flooding in the Bay Area. Santa Clara County is the most exposed, with 74% of the county’s high-risk for flood homes, such as along Coyote, Pacheco, Uvas and Ross creeks, without a federal policy.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In Solano County, 71% of homes in the high-risk area lack these protections, 66% in Contra Costa County and 61% in Sonoma County. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In Solano County, 71% of homes in the high-risk area lack these protections, 66% in Contra Costa County and 61% in Sonoma County. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The story that the data tells for us is that flooding is on the way for California, most likely, and that a lot of people who could be impacted very severely do not have insurance coverage that would protect them,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The story that the data tells for us is that flooding is on the way for California, most likely, and that a lot of people who could be impacted very severely do not have insurance coverage that would protect them,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
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"text": "How can I tell if I’m at high risk? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>How can I tell if I’m at high risk? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Type your address into the \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a> to get an idea. The lower your risk, the cheaper the flood insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Type your address into the \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a> to get an idea. The lower your risk, the cheaper the flood insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You may need to zoom into the map for the full picture. Special flood hazard areas are marked in light blue and blue and red stripes. Areas with elevated flood risk or future flood risk are marked in orange and in grey stripes. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>You may need to zoom into the map for the full picture. Special flood hazard areas are marked in light blue and blue and red stripes. Areas with elevated flood risk or future flood risk are marked in orange and in grey stripes. \u003c/p>\n"
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002564\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A FEMA flood map outlines risk in Petaluma.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of FEMA)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You can get a quote for a federal policy online through \u003ca href=\"https://www.floodsmart.gov/policy-quote/\">the NFIP website\u003c/a> or through an insurance agent or broker. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>You can get a quote for a federal policy online through \u003ca href=\"https://www.floodsmart.gov/policy-quote/\">the NFIP website\u003c/a> or through an insurance agent or broker. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>You can also call your insurer and ask for a “flood endorsement,” which is an optional add-on to include flood coverage in your existing policy.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>You can also call your insurer and ask for a “flood endorsement,” which is an optional add-on to include flood coverage in your existing policy.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But if you are looking for a policy ahead of this year’s winter storm season, get on it soon. The federal policies take 30 days to go into effect from the date you buy them and pay the premium, so time is of the essence. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But if you are looking for a policy ahead of this year’s winter storm season, get on it soon. The federal policies take 30 days to go into effect from the date you buy them and pay the premium, so time is of the essence. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy nonprofit based in California, recommended you also ask for a quote for flood insurance from a private flood company — to compare to what your current home insurer quotes you for that flood endorsement. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy nonprofit based in California, recommended you also ask for a quote for flood insurance from a private flood company — to compare to what your current home insurer quotes you for that flood endorsement. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The federal flood insurance program covers policyholders up to $250,000 max to repair flood damage. If you pay extra for contents coverage, you can get up to $100,000 for your belongings, such as clothes, furniture and electronics. The program will not cover temporary rent and expenses if you can’t live in your home after the flood. Private flood policies may provide this coverage. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The federal flood insurance program covers policyholders up to $250,000 max to repair flood damage. If you pay extra for contents coverage, you can get up to $100,000 for your belongings, such as clothes, furniture and electronics. The program will not cover temporary rent and expenses if you can’t live in your home after the flood. Private flood policies may provide this coverage. \u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
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"text": "What questions should I ask my insurance agent? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In their “El Niño Preparedness” \u003ca href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hOBvKIvn7rEdS_uvAju78gD48-jLXZ_t/view?usp=sharing\">tip sheet\u003c/a>, United Policyholders suggested asking: \u003c/p>\n",
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"How much will it cost to insure my home and belongings for flood damage?",
"Can you help me compare an NFIP policy versus a private flood policy versus adding a “flood endorsement” to my home insurance policy?",
"Does a “flood endorsement” insure my home for more than $250,000?",
"Will this policy cover temporary rent expenses? "
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>How much will it cost to insure my home and belongings for flood damage?\u003c/li>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cli>How much will it cost to insure my home and belongings for flood damage?\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Can you help me compare an NFIP policy versus a private flood policy versus adding a “flood endorsement” to my home insurance policy?\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Can you help me compare an NFIP policy versus a private flood policy versus adding a “flood endorsement” to my home insurance policy?\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Does a “flood endorsement” insure my home for more than $250,000?\u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Does a “flood endorsement” insure my home for more than $250,000?\u003c/li>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cli>Will this policy cover temporary rent expenses? \u003c/li>\n",
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"\n\u003cli>Will this policy cover temporary rent expenses? \u003c/li>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "Would flood damage to my home be covered by federal disaster assistance?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>Would flood damage to my home be covered by federal disaster assistance?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Not likely. Federal disaster money is only available when the president issues a disaster declaration, and most floods don’t result in this outcome, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Not likely. Federal disaster money is only available when the president issues a disaster declaration, and most floods don’t result in this outcome, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Last month, FEMA officials told states they should make sure they have enough staff and financial reserves to \u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120\">handle most emergencies\u003c/a> on their own. This echoes \u003ca href=\"https://transportation.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408317#:~:text=FEMA%20was%20not%20designed%20to,to%20quickly%20respond%20to%20emergencies.\">other statements\u003c/a> made by federal officials that FEMA should not be considered first responders. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Last month, FEMA officials told states they should make sure they have enough staff and financial reserves to \u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120\">handle most emergencies\u003c/a> on their own. This echoes \u003ca href=\"https://transportation.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408317#:~:text=FEMA%20was%20not%20designed%20to,to%20quickly%20respond%20to%20emergencies.\">other statements\u003c/a> made by federal officials that FEMA should not be considered first responders. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Also, any disaster assistance is usually a loan that has to be repaid with interest. The loan can help with some immediate costs but isn’t enough for serious home repairs. By contrast, money paid out by your flood insurance isn’t a loan and doesn’t have to be paid back. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Also, any disaster assistance is usually a loan that has to be repaid with interest. The loan can help with some immediate costs but isn’t enough for serious home repairs. By contrast, money paid out by your flood insurance isn’t a loan and doesn’t have to be paid back. \u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "I have rental insurance. Does that cover floods? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have rental insurance. Does that cover floods? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Generally, it does not. But you \u003cem>can\u003c/em> buy renters flood insurance to protect your belongings. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Generally, it does not. But you \u003cem>can\u003c/em> buy renters flood insurance to protect your belongings. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Typically, your landlord’s insurance will cover structural damage to the property but not to your things. A renter’s flood insurance policy likewise doesn’t cover any damage to a home or apartment. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Typically, your landlord’s insurance will cover structural damage to the property but not to your things. A renter’s flood insurance policy likewise doesn’t cover any damage to a home or apartment. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For more on this topic, visit KQED’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11938251/renters-was-your-home-damaged-by-rain-or-floods-heres-what-to-do\">guide\u003c/a> on what to do if your home is damaged by floods.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For more on this topic, visit KQED’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11938251/renters-was-your-home-damaged-by-rain-or-floods-heres-what-to-do\">guide\u003c/a> on what to do if your home is damaged by floods.\u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "What about my car if it floods while parked? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>What about my car if it floods while parked? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Flood insurance generally won’t help if floodwaters damage your car, as it usually only applies to your home. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Flood insurance generally won’t help if floodwaters damage your car, as it usually only applies to your home. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If you want your auto policy to cover damage from floods or other natural disasters, you need comprehensive coverage. Brannon estimates about half of drivers carry bare-bones auto insurance.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If you want your auto policy to cover damage from floods or other natural disasters, you need comprehensive coverage. Brannon estimates about half of drivers carry bare-bones auto insurance.\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Many people living in the Bay Area don’t realize that standard home insurance does not cover flood risk. ",
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"title": " Is Your California Insurance Ready for El Niño Flooding? | KQED",
"description": "Many people living in the Bay Area don’t realize that standard home insurance does not cover flood risk. ",
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"headline": " Is Your California Insurance Ready for El Niño Flooding?",
"datePublished": "2026-11-11T07:00:00-08:00",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/flooding\">Floods\u003c/a> are the most common and expensive disaster in the U.S., and this winter California may be in for a lot of record flooding. It’s looking \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">extremely likely\u003c/a> there will be a “very strong” El Niño this fall and winter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasters expect \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook\">stormier weather\u003c/a> than usual for this time of year, which will lead to potential flooding. Higher than normal ocean water levels, due in part to the sea expanding with elevated temperatures, have already caused serious erosion and flooding along the California coastline. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a post on his \u003ca href=\"https://weatherwest.com/archives/44119\">Weather West\u003c/a> blog, climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote, “Increased coastal flooding [is] already occurring, and will rise yet further,” and that the risks of increased flooding would start to increase around December. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The times around the highest tides of the year are especially risky for flooding. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1955598/king-tides-are-here-why-they-happen-and-what-they-teach-us\">King tides\u003c/a> this year will hit the coast Nov. 24 to 26, Dec. 23 to 25, and Jan. 21 to 22. The hotter ocean water means the tides will run one to two feet above normal. If a storm overlaps with the king tides, Swain foresees likely widespread, “probably historic,” flooding. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Normal property insurance does not cover flood damage. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that just an inch of water in a home can cost $25,000 in repairs. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Many at risk in the state are not protected with adequate insurance, according to data on flood zones in California and flood insurance coverage shared with KQED by Insurify, a company that allows shoppers to compare policies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We’ve seen from disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton from 2024 that a lot of people who get impacted don’t have flood insurance,” said Matt Brannon, senior economic analyst at the company. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In some of the hardest-hit areas, such as around Asheville, North Carolina, \u003ca href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/12/flood-insurance-hurricane-milton-helene\">fewer than 1%\u003c/a> of homes had flood insurance when Helene hit. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How can you make sure you’re ready if your home, apartment, belongings or car is damaged in floodwaters? Keep reading for what to know about El Niño, flooding and insurance in the coming months.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have home insurance — am I covered for flooding? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One big thing a lot of people don’t know: A home insurance policy that covers “water damage” generally doesn’t cover damage from floodwaters.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That’s because water damage would cover accidental damage from an overflowing faucet or broken pipe — but not from a river overspilling its banks or heavy rains causing water to flood a basement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many people are surprised to learn they are not covered for flooding by standard insurance. This is “one of the bigger misconceptions in all of home insurance,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a \u003ca href=\"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/06/20/780393.htm\">2024 survey\u003c/a> by an insurance industry group, more than half of respondents were unaware that flood damage isn’t included in a standard homeowners policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brannon recently looked at how many high flood-risk homes in California are not covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, using public data. Of the 183,000 homes in California’s FEMA-designated high-risk flood zones, 65% do not have an NFIP flood-insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why that matters: This program is the typical route for homeowners to access coverage. While it is possible to buy flood insurance from a private company, NFIP policies make up the vast majority.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We wanted to get an idea of how many homes in flood areas in California have insurance coverage for flooding specifically,” he said. “And it turns out that the majority of people in these high-risk areas do not have flood insurance, about two-thirds of them.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001560\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-116-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A house in the Panhandle Annex neighborhood in Richmond on July 21, 2026. Houses in this neighborhood that are not elevated from the street are susceptible to flooding. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He found a similar story with homes at risk of flooding in the Bay Area. Santa Clara County is the most exposed, with 74% of the county’s high-risk for flood homes, such as along Coyote, Pacheco, Uvas and Ross creeks, without a federal policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Solano County, 71% of homes in the high-risk area lack these protections, 66% in Contra Costa County and 61% in Sonoma County. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The story that the data tells for us is that flooding is on the way for California, most likely, and that a lot of people who could be impacted very severely do not have insurance coverage that would protect them,” Brannon said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>How can I tell if I’m at high risk? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Type your address into the \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a> to get an idea. The lower your risk, the cheaper the flood insurance policy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You may need to zoom into the map for the full picture. Special flood hazard areas are marked in light blue and blue and red stripes. Areas with elevated flood risk or future flood risk are marked in orange and in grey stripes. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1284\" height=\"759\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002564\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508.jpg 1284w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-160x94-1-698f5ddd.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-766x453-1-4dcc53cd.jpg 766w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/IMAGE-FEMA-Flood-Map-0d5a6508-1141x674-1-0906a5e2.jpg 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1284px) 100vw, 1284px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A FEMA flood map outlines risk in Petaluma. (Courtesy of FEMA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>How do I get flood insurance? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can get a quote for a federal policy online through \u003ca href=\"https://www.floodsmart.gov/policy-quote/\">the NFIP website\u003c/a> or through an insurance agent or broker. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can also call your insurer and ask for a “flood endorsement,” which is an optional add-on to include flood coverage in your existing policy.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But if you are looking for a policy ahead of this year’s winter storm season, get on it soon. The federal policies take 30 days to go into effect from the date you buy them and pay the premium, so time is of the essence. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy nonprofit based in California, recommended you also ask for a quote for flood insurance from a private flood company — to compare to what your current home insurer quotes you for that flood endorsement. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The federal flood insurance program covers policyholders up to $250,000 max to repair flood damage. If you pay extra for contents coverage, you can get up to $100,000 for your belongings, such as clothes, furniture and electronics. The program will not cover temporary rent and expenses if you can’t live in your home after the flood. Private flood policies may provide this coverage. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>What questions should I ask my insurance agent? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In their “El Niño Preparedness” \u003ca href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hOBvKIvn7rEdS_uvAju78gD48-jLXZ_t/view?usp=sharing\">tip sheet\u003c/a>, United Policyholders suggested asking: \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003cli>How much will it cost to insure my home and belongings for flood damage?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Can you help me compare an NFIP policy versus a private flood policy versus adding a “flood endorsement” to my home insurance policy?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Does a “flood endorsement” insure my home for more than $250,000?\u003c/li>\n\n\n\n\u003cli>Will this policy cover temporary rent expenses? \u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>Would flood damage to my home be covered by federal disaster assistance?\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not likely. Federal disaster money is only available when the president issues a disaster declaration, and most floods don’t result in this outcome, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last month, FEMA officials told states they should make sure they have enough staff and financial reserves to \u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120\">handle most emergencies\u003c/a> on their own. This echoes \u003ca href=\"https://transportation.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408317#:~:text=FEMA%20was%20not%20designed%20to,to%20quickly%20respond%20to%20emergencies.\">other statements\u003c/a> made by federal officials that FEMA should not be considered first responders. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, any disaster assistance is usually a loan that has to be repaid with interest. The loan can help with some immediate costs but isn’t enough for serious home repairs. By contrast, money paid out by your flood insurance isn’t a loan and doesn’t have to be paid back. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>I have rental insurance. Does that cover floods? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Generally, it does not. But you \u003cem>can\u003c/em> buy renters flood insurance to protect your belongings. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typically, your landlord’s insurance will cover structural damage to the property but not to your things. A renter’s flood insurance policy likewise doesn’t cover any damage to a home or apartment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For more on this topic, visit KQED’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11938251/renters-was-your-home-damaged-by-rain-or-floods-heres-what-to-do\">guide\u003c/a> on what to do if your home is damaged by floods.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003cstrong>What about my car if it floods while parked? \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Flood insurance generally won’t help if floodwaters damage your car, as it usually only applies to your home. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you want your auto policy to cover damage from floods or other natural disasters, you need comprehensive coverage. Brannon estimates about half of drivers carry bare-bones auto insurance.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "el-nino-is-warming-monterey-bay-causing-trouble-for-ocean-life",
"title": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life",
"publishDate": 1793658764,
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"headTitle": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1475\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1554\" height=\"648\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1554px) 100vw, 1554px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026. (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1430\" height=\"2000\" data-id=\"2002520\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002520\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg 1430w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-160x224.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-768x1074.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-1098x1536.jpg 1098w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically see the siphonophore Athorybia during their fieldwork in Mexico. (Courtesy of Anik Grearson/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1688\" data-id=\"2002521\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002521\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-160x135.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-768x648.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-1536x1296.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically encounter the ctenophore Ocyropsis, recently spotted offshore of California’s Central Coast, in the tropical waters of Hawaii. (Courtesy of Steven Haddock/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north. (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "El Niño has pushed Monterey Bay’s ocean water temperatures to historic highs. One clear sign: warm-water species that are rarely seen offshore of the Central California Coast.",
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"title": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1475\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1554\" height=\"648\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1554px) 100vw, 1554px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026. (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1430\" height=\"2000\" data-id=\"2002520\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002520\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg 1430w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-160x224.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-768x1074.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-1098x1536.jpg 1098w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically see the siphonophore Athorybia during their fieldwork in Mexico. (Courtesy of Anik Grearson/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1688\" data-id=\"2002521\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002521\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-160x135.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-768x648.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-1536x1296.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically encounter the ctenophore Ocyropsis, recently spotted offshore of California’s Central Coast, in the tropical waters of Hawaii. (Courtesy of Steven Haddock/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north. (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"content": "\u003cp>Derek Bentley’s San Rafael karate studio \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">flooded\u003c/a> in January, when a heavy storm hit during one of the highest tides of the year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Several inches of water rose from under the foundation and filled the building from the inside, soaking the karate mats so thoroughly that they squirted water when Bentley stepped across them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We were closed for about a week after the flood,” Bentley said. “Then we opened, but we used air dryers and some of the mats were still wet, and we had no carpet for a couple months.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now he fears a bout of déjà vu could be in his future if very strong \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> conditions steer strong storms toward the Bay Area and once again flood his dojo.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001559\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of landscape architecture and environmental planning and urban design at UC Berkeley, looks out at the South Richmond Marshes in Richmond on July 21, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“My fear is we will lose this place because it’ll just be too much water,” Bentley said. He runs Taylor’s House of Karate a few yards away from a marina on San Rafael Creek in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12068644/marin-county-looked-like-a-lagoon-after-king-tides-heavy-rain\">Marin County\u003c/a>. “I’ve never seen us beat water around here.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is no stranger to the impacts of periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, what researchers call El Niño, have been associated with some of California’s most powerful and punishing storms. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For many months, weather experts have warned of what could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Federal scientists \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">forecast \u003c/a>a greater than 90% % chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. The forecast raises the possibility of a worst-case flooding scenario that Bay Area officials and climate scientists have long been concerned about — in part because warm water expands, raising sea levels.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In terms of emergency planning, you can think of it as the coastal flooding equivalent of “the Big One”, when the highest tides, biggest storms and largest waves all coincide on top of the elevated sea levels. That superimposition is possible in any given year, but warm water from El Niño will temporarily elevate sea levels this year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast,” said Mark Merrifield, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">virtual town hall\u003c/a> focused on El Niño. “As a sort of unlucky coincidence, the tidal cycle is also gonna be at a peak around the end of this year.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather while \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While El Niño is a natural cycle, human-caused climate change is \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change/\">warming oceans\u003c/a>, with large-scale ramifications, including long-term changes in weather and rising seas. This monthslong window into higher tides offers a glimpse of the Bay Area’s climate-altered future.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” Merrifield said. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘The worst coastal flooding on record’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, is building an exhibit at Pier 15 that features a chart showing how the bay’s water level has risen since 1890. Every few years there’s a really large spike. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” Lunden said. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels. “But overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The temporary rise researchers anticipate this year may come from several forces stacking together. First, the water levels in San Francisco Bay have risen about 8 inches \u003ca href=\"https://url.us.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/0yfSCjRnyNIDGV2niWfAjhmEaue?domain=tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov\">since the 1890s\u003c/a>. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1069\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001620\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2000x835.png 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-160x67.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-768x321.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-1536x641.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2048x855.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sea levels have risen by around 8 inches since the 1800s in the Bay Area, but scientists expect human-caused climate change to raise them by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century. This graph showcases monthly tide levels over time, and the peaks often represent El Niño events. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Second, warm water piling up in the Pacific expands, raising sea levels by several inches. As that water slowly sloshes east, it eventually smacks into South America and forces “local ocean water to push against the coast instead of flowing westward,” flattening out into the Pacific, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>These Kelvin waves are the delivery system for warm water associated with El Niño, and Swain said this process can cause up to 9 inches or more of additional temporary sea level rise along the coast and San Francisco Bay over days or weeks. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That rise will be “felt all the way inland into the Delta and Stockton,” Swain said. This El Niño “now appears to be most likely to become the singularly strongest on record and so I think there’s a decent chance we actually break historical records.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, which will be among the highest on record in December, changes in pressure, storm surge and back-to-back storms, and some places could experience as much as 5-to-6 feet of temporary inundation above historical high tide levels, Swain said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding could occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said. “I foresee this being a major problem for the Bay Area this year.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The high water anomaly has already begun. The tide gauge near the Golden Gate Bridge is running about \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches higher\u003c/a> than where it typically is for this time of year, “and that’s partially because of El Niño,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Water levels are here to stay,” Vitousek said. “They will probably get larger in the winter as El Niño ramps up and we get more storm surge, waves and atmospheric pressure effects.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Do the prep work’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In preparation, the California Department of Water Resources is staging more than 200 shipping containers filled with flood-response supplies across the state. Officials have stockpiled 4.3 million sandbags, 55,000 super sacks that can be filled with rocks or sand, and 400,000 tons of rock for emergencies such as levee repairs.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We preposition materials around the state to make it faster to have them deployed,” said Michael Anderson, the state climatologist. The department is also working with the Army Corps of Engineers to have pumps ready and has partnered with NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on a \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/aqpi/\">system of radar units\u003c/a> to help detect hazardous weather events. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001571\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A tide gauge in between Piers 15 and 17 next to the Exploratorium in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. The water level reached around 8 feet in January 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That can really help communities know where the heavy rains are coming,” Anderson said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Around the Bay Area, cities are also gearing up ahead of the year’s highest tides, which fall right around Thanksgiving and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Rafael, where high tides already flood streets and pumps weren’t designed for saltwater, is coordinating with critical agencies to improve communication so that roads can be closed quickly when it floods. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That unfortunately doesn’t reduce the risk that those roads flood or those facilities are impacted,” said Kate Hagemann, a climate adaptation resilience planner with San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Parts of Alameda, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">a low-lying island city\u003c/a> with a shallow water table, often floods during high tides and storms. The city is preparing barricades and sandbags, readying pumps and clearing storm drains.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We have a vacuum truck that’s able to quickly dislodge material that may prevent stormwater from flowing,” said Erin Smith, public works director for the City of Alameda. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001569\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Piers 15 and 17 in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1997729/oysters-snails-and-a-wall-that-protects-against-climate-change-one-tile-at-a-time\">Port of San Francisco\u003c/a> is taking similar steps: clearing drains, planning traffic detours and staging pumps.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“King tides and these El Niño events are a glimpse into the future,” said Brad Benson, waterfront resilience program director for the Port. “In some of these areas, we have very important assets for the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>One of Benson’s biggest concerns is the low-lying Muni tunnel entrance near the Ferry Building. About 60% of the city’s light rail fleet passes through it each night to reach the maintenance yard, making it critical to protect.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Californians can sign up for emergency alerts and create disaster plans by visiting the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.listoscalifornia.org/\">Ready California\u003c/a> site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Do the prep work,” said Nate Ortiz, assistant director for planning and preparedness with the California Office of Emergency Services. He suggested creating a go bag with documents, cash, food, water, medication and clothing. “Even if you can just get it started and incrementally build that out, it’s a great way to be a bit more prepared\u003cem>.\u003c/em>”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The dangerous conditions may expose the weaknesses in flood protections across Bay Area cities, said Kristina Hill, a professor in the College of Environmental Design at UC Berkeley who studies \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101912604/as-sea-levels-rise-what-will-it-take-to-protect-the-bay-area-from-flooding\">sea level rise\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael, have a patchwork of private levees. This winter will likely put those barriers to the test.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018103/king-tides-foreshadow-far-wetter-future-sf-shoreline\">San Francisco seawall\u003c/a>,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001566\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of Landscape Architecture & Environmental Planning and Urban Design at UC Berkeley, poses for a photo at the San Rafael Yacht Harbor in San Rafael on July 21, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Depending on the level of flooding, Hill said, it could show the region that it’s time “to do business differently” by building with more imagination and constructing buildings that are ready for higher seas. She dreams of floating buildings along the bay, like the Ferry Building, or entire blocks of housing as a way to live on the water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The things we’ve done in the past to prevent coastal flooding won’t work when that water doesn’t go back down again,” Hill said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bentley said that future — where the water doesn’t recede and daily tides inundate shorelines — is something he worries about at the dojo in San Rafael. From inside his practice, Bentley has a front-row view of the boats in the marina as they move up and down with the tide. He can tell when the water is rising. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was kind of crazy to drive in here and see the boats above you,” Bentley said. “Over the last three years I’ve noticed the boats are getting higher and higher and higher.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And every time it rains, Bentley remembers the memory of the January flood that nearly shut down his practice.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As someone who has lived and worked near water, I’ve only seen flooding get worse,” Bentley said. “We should just start preparing for it versus crossing our fingers.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We were closed for about a week after the flood,” Bentley said. “Then we opened, but we used air dryers and some of the mats were still wet, and we had no carpet for a couple months.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Now he fears a bout of déjà vu could be in his future if very strong \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> conditions steer strong storms toward the Bay Area and once again flood his dojo.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001559\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of landscape architecture and environmental planning and urban design at UC Berkeley, looks out at the South Richmond Marshes in Richmond on July 21, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001559\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of landscape architecture and environmental planning and urban design at UC Berkeley, looks out at the South Richmond Marshes in Richmond on July 21, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“My fear is we will lose this place because it’ll just be too much water,” Bentley said. He runs Taylor’s House of Karate a few yards away from a marina on San Rafael Creek in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12068644/marin-county-looked-like-a-lagoon-after-king-tides-heavy-rain\">Marin County\u003c/a>. “I’ve never seen us beat water around here.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“My fear is we will lose this place because it’ll just be too much water,” Bentley said. He runs Taylor’s House of Karate a few yards away from a marina on San Rafael Creek in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12068644/marin-county-looked-like-a-lagoon-after-king-tides-heavy-rain\">Marin County\u003c/a>. “I’ve never seen us beat water around here.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>California is no stranger to the impacts of periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, what researchers call El Niño, have been associated with some of California’s most powerful and punishing storms. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>California is no stranger to the impacts of periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, what researchers call El Niño, have been associated with some of California’s most powerful and punishing storms. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For many months, weather experts have warned of what could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Federal scientists \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">forecast \u003c/a>a greater than 90% % chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. The forecast raises the possibility of a worst-case flooding scenario that Bay Area officials and climate scientists have long been concerned about — in part because warm water expands, raising sea levels.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For many months, weather experts have warned of what could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Federal scientists \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">forecast \u003c/a>a greater than 90% % chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. The forecast raises the possibility of a worst-case flooding scenario that Bay Area officials and climate scientists have long been concerned about — in part because warm water expands, raising sea levels.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In terms of emergency planning, you can think of it as the coastal flooding equivalent of “the Big One”, when the highest tides, biggest storms and largest waves all coincide on top of the elevated sea levels. That superimposition is possible in any given year, but warm water from El Niño will temporarily elevate sea levels this year.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In terms of emergency planning, you can think of it as the coastal flooding equivalent of “the Big One”, when the highest tides, biggest storms and largest waves all coincide on top of the elevated sea levels. That superimposition is possible in any given year, but warm water from El Niño will temporarily elevate sea levels this year.\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast,” said Mark Merrifield, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">virtual town hall\u003c/a> focused on El Niño. “As a sort of unlucky coincidence, the tidal cycle is also gonna be at a peak around the end of this year.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast,” said Mark Merrifield, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">virtual town hall\u003c/a> focused on El Niño. “As a sort of unlucky coincidence, the tidal cycle is also gonna be at a peak around the end of this year.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather while \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather while \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>While El Niño is a natural cycle, human-caused climate change is \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change/\">warming oceans\u003c/a>, with large-scale ramifications, including long-term changes in weather and rising seas. This monthslong window into higher tides offers a glimpse of the Bay Area’s climate-altered future.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>While El Niño is a natural cycle, human-caused climate change is \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change/\">warming oceans\u003c/a>, with large-scale ramifications, including long-term changes in weather and rising seas. This monthslong window into higher tides offers a glimpse of the Bay Area’s climate-altered future.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” Merrifield said. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” Merrifield said. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "‘The worst coastal flooding on record’",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘The worst coastal flooding on record’\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘The worst coastal flooding on record’\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, is building an exhibit at Pier 15 that features a chart showing how the bay’s water level has risen since 1890. Every few years there’s a really large spike. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, is building an exhibit at Pier 15 that features a chart showing how the bay’s water level has risen since 1890. Every few years there’s a really large spike. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” Lunden said. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels. “But overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” Lunden said. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels. “But overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The temporary rise researchers anticipate this year may come from several forces stacking together. First, the water levels in San Francisco Bay have risen about 8 inches \u003ca href=\"https://url.us.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/0yfSCjRnyNIDGV2niWfAjhmEaue?domain=tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov\">since the 1890s\u003c/a>. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The temporary rise researchers anticipate this year may come from several forces stacking together. First, the water levels in San Francisco Bay have risen about 8 inches \u003ca href=\"https://url.us.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/0yfSCjRnyNIDGV2niWfAjhmEaue?domain=tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov\">since the 1890s\u003c/a>. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050.\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2000x835.png 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-160x67.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-768x321.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-1536x641.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2048x855.png 2048w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001620\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2000x835.png 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-160x67.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-768x321.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-1536x641.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2048x855.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sea levels have risen by around 8 inches since the 1800s in the Bay Area, but scientists expect human-caused climate change to raise them by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century. This graph showcases monthly tide levels over time, and the peaks often represent El Niño events.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001620\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sea levels have risen by around 8 inches since the 1800s in the Bay Area, but scientists expect human-caused climate change to raise them by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century. This graph showcases monthly tide levels over time, and the peaks often represent El Niño events.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Second, warm water piling up in the Pacific expands, raising sea levels by several inches. As that water slowly sloshes east, it eventually smacks into South America and forces “local ocean water to push against the coast instead of flowing westward,” flattening out into the Pacific, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Second, warm water piling up in the Pacific expands, raising sea levels by several inches. As that water slowly sloshes east, it eventually smacks into South America and forces “local ocean water to push against the coast instead of flowing westward,” flattening out into the Pacific, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>These Kelvin waves are the delivery system for warm water associated with El Niño, and Swain said this process can cause up to 9 inches or more of additional temporary sea level rise along the coast and San Francisco Bay over days or weeks. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>These Kelvin waves are the delivery system for warm water associated with El Niño, and Swain said this process can cause up to 9 inches or more of additional temporary sea level rise along the coast and San Francisco Bay over days or weeks. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That rise will be “felt all the way inland into the Delta and Stockton,” Swain said. This El Niño “now appears to be most likely to become the singularly strongest on record and so I think there’s a decent chance we actually break historical records.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That rise will be “felt all the way inland into the Delta and Stockton,” Swain said. This El Niño “now appears to be most likely to become the singularly strongest on record and so I think there’s a decent chance we actually break historical records.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, which will be among the highest on record in December, changes in pressure, storm surge and back-to-back storms, and some places could experience as much as 5-to-6 feet of temporary inundation above historical high tide levels, Swain said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, which will be among the highest on record in December, changes in pressure, storm surge and back-to-back storms, and some places could experience as much as 5-to-6 feet of temporary inundation above historical high tide levels, Swain said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding could occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding could occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said. “I foresee this being a major problem for the Bay Area this year.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said. “I foresee this being a major problem for the Bay Area this year.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The high water anomaly has already begun. The tide gauge near the Golden Gate Bridge is running about \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches higher\u003c/a> than where it typically is for this time of year, “and that’s partially because of El Niño,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The high water anomaly has already begun. The tide gauge near the Golden Gate Bridge is running about \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches higher\u003c/a> than where it typically is for this time of year, “and that’s partially because of El Niño,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Water levels are here to stay,” Vitousek said. “They will probably get larger in the winter as El Niño ramps up and we get more storm surge, waves and atmospheric pressure effects.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Water levels are here to stay,” Vitousek said. “They will probably get larger in the winter as El Niño ramps up and we get more storm surge, waves and atmospheric pressure effects.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "‘Do the prep work’",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In preparation, the California Department of Water Resources is staging more than 200 shipping containers filled with flood-response supplies across the state. Officials have stockpiled 4.3 million sandbags, 55,000 super sacks that can be filled with rocks or sand, and 400,000 tons of rock for emergencies such as levee repairs.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In preparation, the California Department of Water Resources is staging more than 200 shipping containers filled with flood-response supplies across the state. Officials have stockpiled 4.3 million sandbags, 55,000 super sacks that can be filled with rocks or sand, and 400,000 tons of rock for emergencies such as levee repairs.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We preposition materials around the state to make it faster to have them deployed,” said Michael Anderson, the state climatologist. The department is also working with the Army Corps of Engineers to have pumps ready and has partnered with NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on a \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/aqpi/\">system of radar units\u003c/a> to help detect hazardous weather events. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We preposition materials around the state to make it faster to have them deployed,” said Michael Anderson, the state climatologist. The department is also working with the Army Corps of Engineers to have pumps ready and has partnered with NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on a \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/aqpi/\">system of radar units\u003c/a> to help detect hazardous weather events. \u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001571\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A tide gauge in between Piers 15 and 17 next to the Exploratorium in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. The water level reached around 8 feet in January 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001571\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A tide gauge in between Piers 15 and 17 next to the Exploratorium in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. The water level reached around 8 feet in January 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“That can really help communities know where the heavy rains are coming,” Anderson said. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“That can really help communities know where the heavy rains are coming,” Anderson said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Around the Bay Area, cities are also gearing up ahead of the year’s highest tides, which fall right around Thanksgiving and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Around the Bay Area, cities are also gearing up ahead of the year’s highest tides, which fall right around Thanksgiving and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>San Rafael, where high tides already flood streets and pumps weren’t designed for saltwater, is coordinating with critical agencies to improve communication so that roads can be closed quickly when it floods. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>San Rafael, where high tides already flood streets and pumps weren’t designed for saltwater, is coordinating with critical agencies to improve communication so that roads can be closed quickly when it floods. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“That unfortunately doesn’t reduce the risk that those roads flood or those facilities are impacted,” said Kate Hagemann, a climate adaptation resilience planner with San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“That unfortunately doesn’t reduce the risk that those roads flood or those facilities are impacted,” said Kate Hagemann, a climate adaptation resilience planner with San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Parts of Alameda, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">a low-lying island city\u003c/a> with a shallow water table, often floods during high tides and storms. The city is preparing barricades and sandbags, readying pumps and clearing storm drains.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Parts of Alameda, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">a low-lying island city\u003c/a> with a shallow water table, often floods during high tides and storms. The city is preparing barricades and sandbags, readying pumps and clearing storm drains.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We have a vacuum truck that’s able to quickly dislodge material that may prevent stormwater from flowing,” said Erin Smith, public works director for the City of Alameda. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“We have a vacuum truck that’s able to quickly dislodge material that may prevent stormwater from flowing,” said Erin Smith, public works director for the City of Alameda. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001569\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Piers 15 and 17 in San Francisco on July 24, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001569\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Piers 15 and 17 in San Francisco on July 24, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1997729/oysters-snails-and-a-wall-that-protects-against-climate-change-one-tile-at-a-time\">Port of San Francisco\u003c/a> is taking similar steps: clearing drains, planning traffic detours and staging pumps.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1997729/oysters-snails-and-a-wall-that-protects-against-climate-change-one-tile-at-a-time\">Port of San Francisco\u003c/a> is taking similar steps: clearing drains, planning traffic detours and staging pumps.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“King tides and these El Niño events are a glimpse into the future,” said Brad Benson, waterfront resilience program director for the Port. “In some of these areas, we have very important assets for the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“King tides and these El Niño events are a glimpse into the future,” said Brad Benson, waterfront resilience program director for the Port. “In some of these areas, we have very important assets for the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>One of Benson’s biggest concerns is the low-lying Muni tunnel entrance near the Ferry Building. About 60% of the city’s light rail fleet passes through it each night to reach the maintenance yard, making it critical to protect.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Californians can sign up for emergency alerts and create disaster plans by visiting the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.listoscalifornia.org/\">Ready California\u003c/a> site. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>One of Benson’s biggest concerns is the low-lying Muni tunnel entrance near the Ferry Building. About 60% of the city’s light rail fleet passes through it each night to reach the maintenance yard, making it critical to protect.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Californians can sign up for emergency alerts and create disaster plans by visiting the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.listoscalifornia.org/\">Ready California\u003c/a> site. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Do the prep work,” said Nate Ortiz, assistant director for planning and preparedness with the California Office of Emergency Services. He suggested creating a go bag with documents, cash, food, water, medication and clothing. “Even if you can just get it started and incrementally build that out, it’s a great way to be a bit more prepared\u003cem>.\u003c/em>”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Do the prep work,” said Nate Ortiz, assistant director for planning and preparedness with the California Office of Emergency Services. He suggested creating a go bag with documents, cash, food, water, medication and clothing. “Even if you can just get it started and incrementally build that out, it’s a great way to be a bit more prepared\u003cem>.\u003c/em>”\u003c/p>\n"
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"attrs": {
"text": "‘We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub’",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub’\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The dangerous conditions may expose the weaknesses in flood protections across Bay Area cities, said Kristina Hill, a professor in the College of Environmental Design at UC Berkeley who studies \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101912604/as-sea-levels-rise-what-will-it-take-to-protect-the-bay-area-from-flooding\">sea level rise\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The dangerous conditions may expose the weaknesses in flood protections across Bay Area cities, said Kristina Hill, a professor in the College of Environmental Design at UC Berkeley who studies \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101912604/as-sea-levels-rise-what-will-it-take-to-protect-the-bay-area-from-flooding\">sea level rise\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael, have a patchwork of private levees. This winter will likely put those barriers to the test.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael, have a patchwork of private levees. This winter will likely put those barriers to the test.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018103/king-tides-foreshadow-far-wetter-future-sf-shoreline\">San Francisco seawall\u003c/a>,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018103/king-tides-foreshadow-far-wetter-future-sf-shoreline\">San Francisco seawall\u003c/a>,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001566\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of Landscape Architecture & Environmental Planning and Urban Design at UC Berkeley, poses for a photo at the San Rafael Yacht Harbor in San Rafael on July 21, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001566\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of Landscape Architecture & Environmental Planning and Urban Design at UC Berkeley, poses for a photo at the San Rafael Yacht Harbor in San Rafael on July 21, 2026.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Depending on the level of flooding, Hill said, it could show the region that it’s time “to do business differently” by building with more imagination and constructing buildings that are ready for higher seas. She dreams of floating buildings along the bay, like the Ferry Building, or entire blocks of housing as a way to live on the water. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Depending on the level of flooding, Hill said, it could show the region that it’s time “to do business differently” by building with more imagination and constructing buildings that are ready for higher seas. She dreams of floating buildings along the bay, like the Ferry Building, or entire blocks of housing as a way to live on the water. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The things we’ve done in the past to prevent coastal flooding won’t work when that water doesn’t go back down again,” Hill said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The things we’ve done in the past to prevent coastal flooding won’t work when that water doesn’t go back down again,” Hill said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Bentley said that future — where the water doesn’t recede and daily tides inundate shorelines — is something he worries about at the dojo in San Rafael. From inside his practice, Bentley has a front-row view of the boats in the marina as they move up and down with the tide. He can tell when the water is rising. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Bentley said that future — where the water doesn’t recede and daily tides inundate shorelines — is something he worries about at the dojo in San Rafael. From inside his practice, Bentley has a front-row view of the boats in the marina as they move up and down with the tide. He can tell when the water is rising. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It was kind of crazy to drive in here and see the boats above you,” Bentley said. “Over the last three years I’ve noticed the boats are getting higher and higher and higher.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It was kind of crazy to drive in here and see the boats above you,” Bentley said. “Over the last three years I’ve noticed the boats are getting higher and higher and higher.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And every time it rains, Bentley remembers the memory of the January flood that nearly shut down his practice.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“As someone who has lived and worked near water, I’ve only seen flooding get worse,” Bentley said. “We should just start preparing for it versus crossing our fingers.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“As someone who has lived and worked near water, I’ve only seen flooding get worse,” Bentley said. “We should just start preparing for it versus crossing our fingers.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "El Niño conditions temporarily layer tomorrow’s Bay Area sea levels onto today’s and offer a glimpse of a wetter future. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Derek Bentley’s San Rafael karate studio \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">flooded\u003c/a> in January, when a heavy storm hit during one of the highest tides of the year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Several inches of water rose from under the foundation and filled the building from the inside, soaking the karate mats so thoroughly that they squirted water when Bentley stepped across them.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We were closed for about a week after the flood,” Bentley said. “Then we opened, but we used air dryers and some of the mats were still wet, and we had no carpet for a couple months.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Now he fears a bout of déjà vu could be in his future if very strong \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">El Niño\u003c/a> conditions steer strong storms toward the Bay Area and once again flood his dojo.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001559\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-77-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of landscape architecture and environmental planning and urban design at UC Berkeley, looks out at the South Richmond Marshes in Richmond on July 21, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“My fear is we will lose this place because it’ll just be too much water,” Bentley said. He runs Taylor’s House of Karate a few yards away from a marina on San Rafael Creek in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12068644/marin-county-looked-like-a-lagoon-after-king-tides-heavy-rain\">Marin County\u003c/a>. “I’ve never seen us beat water around here.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is no stranger to the impacts of periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, what researchers call El Niño, have been associated with some of California’s most powerful and punishing storms. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For many months, weather experts have warned of what could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Federal scientists \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">forecast \u003c/a>a greater than 90% % chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. The forecast raises the possibility of a worst-case flooding scenario that Bay Area officials and climate scientists have long been concerned about — in part because warm water expands, raising sea levels.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In terms of emergency planning, you can think of it as the coastal flooding equivalent of “the Big One”, when the highest tides, biggest storms and largest waves all coincide on top of the elevated sea levels. That superimposition is possible in any given year, but warm water from El Niño will temporarily elevate sea levels this year.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast,” said Mark Merrifield, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">virtual town hall\u003c/a> focused on El Niño. “As a sort of unlucky coincidence, the tidal cycle is also gonna be at a peak around the end of this year.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño forms when tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water near Asia to slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather while \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">disrupting the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling\u003c/a>, heating coastal waters, raising sea levels and stressing marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While El Niño is a natural cycle, human-caused climate change is \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/the-ocean-and-climate-change/\">warming oceans\u003c/a>, with large-scale ramifications, including long-term changes in weather and rising seas. This monthslong window into higher tides offers a glimpse of the Bay Area’s climate-altered future.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” Merrifield said. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘The worst coastal flooding on record’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, is building an exhibit at Pier 15 that features a chart showing how the bay’s water level has risen since 1890. Every few years there’s a really large spike. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” Lunden said. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels. “But overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The temporary rise researchers anticipate this year may come from several forces stacking together. First, the water levels in San Francisco Bay have risen about 8 inches \u003ca href=\"https://url.us.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/0yfSCjRnyNIDGV2niWfAjhmEaue?domain=tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov\">since the 1890s\u003c/a>. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1069\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001620\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-scaled.png 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2000x835.png 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-160x67.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-768x321.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-1536x641.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/FS_F.02.01_SeaLevelCylinder_v12-2048x855.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sea levels have risen by around 8 inches since the 1800s in the Bay Area, but scientists expect human-caused climate change to raise them by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century. This graph showcases monthly tide levels over time, and the peaks often represent El Niño events. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Second, warm water piling up in the Pacific expands, raising sea levels by several inches. As that water slowly sloshes east, it eventually smacks into South America and forces “local ocean water to push against the coast instead of flowing westward,” flattening out into the Pacific, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>These Kelvin waves are the delivery system for warm water associated with El Niño, and Swain said this process can cause up to 9 inches or more of additional temporary sea level rise along the coast and San Francisco Bay over days or weeks. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That rise will be “felt all the way inland into the Delta and Stockton,” Swain said. This El Niño “now appears to be most likely to become the singularly strongest on record and so I think there’s a decent chance we actually break historical records.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, which will be among the highest on record in December, changes in pressure, storm surge and back-to-back storms, and some places could experience as much as 5-to-6 feet of temporary inundation above historical high tide levels, Swain said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding could occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said. “I foresee this being a major problem for the Bay Area this year.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The high water anomaly has already begun. The tide gauge near the Golden Gate Bridge is running about \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches higher\u003c/a> than where it typically is for this time of year, “and that’s partially because of El Niño,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Water levels are here to stay,” Vitousek said. “They will probably get larger in the winter as El Niño ramps up and we get more storm surge, waves and atmospheric pressure effects.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Do the prep work’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In preparation, the California Department of Water Resources is staging more than 200 shipping containers filled with flood-response supplies across the state. Officials have stockpiled 4.3 million sandbags, 55,000 super sacks that can be filled with rocks or sand, and 400,000 tons of rock for emergencies such as levee repairs.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We preposition materials around the state to make it faster to have them deployed,” said Michael Anderson, the state climatologist. The department is also working with the Army Corps of Engineers to have pumps ready and has partnered with NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on a \u003ca href=\"https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/aqpi/\">system of radar units\u003c/a> to help detect hazardous weather events. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001571\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-57-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A tide gauge in between Piers 15 and 17 next to the Exploratorium in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. The water level reached around 8 feet in January 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That can really help communities know where the heavy rains are coming,” Anderson said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Around the Bay Area, cities are also gearing up ahead of the year’s highest tides, which fall right around Thanksgiving and Christmas. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>San Rafael, where high tides already flood streets and pumps weren’t designed for saltwater, is coordinating with critical agencies to improve communication so that roads can be closed quickly when it floods. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That unfortunately doesn’t reduce the risk that those roads flood or those facilities are impacted,” said Kate Hagemann, a climate adaptation resilience planner with San Rafael.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Parts of Alameda, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2000377/for-this-bay-area-island-city-water-is-coming-from-all-sides\">a low-lying island city\u003c/a> with a shallow water table, often floods during high tides and storms. The city is preparing barricades and sandbags, readying pumps and clearing storm drains.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We have a vacuum truck that’s able to quickly dislodge material that may prevent stormwater from flowing,” said Erin Smith, public works director for the City of Alameda. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001569\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260724-ELNINOWORST-NG-39-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Piers 15 and 17 in San Francisco on July 24, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1997729/oysters-snails-and-a-wall-that-protects-against-climate-change-one-tile-at-a-time\">Port of San Francisco\u003c/a> is taking similar steps: clearing drains, planning traffic detours and staging pumps.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“King tides and these El Niño events are a glimpse into the future,” said Brad Benson, waterfront resilience program director for the Port. “In some of these areas, we have very important assets for the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>One of Benson’s biggest concerns is the low-lying Muni tunnel entrance near the Ferry Building. About 60% of the city’s light rail fleet passes through it each night to reach the maintenance yard, making it critical to protect.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Californians can sign up for emergency alerts and create disaster plans by visiting the state’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.listoscalifornia.org/\">Ready California\u003c/a> site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Do the prep work,” said Nate Ortiz, assistant director for planning and preparedness with the California Office of Emergency Services. He suggested creating a go bag with documents, cash, food, water, medication and clothing. “Even if you can just get it started and incrementally build that out, it’s a great way to be a bit more prepared\u003cem>.\u003c/em>”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The dangerous conditions may expose the weaknesses in flood protections across Bay Area cities, said Kristina Hill, a professor in the College of Environmental Design at UC Berkeley who studies \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101912604/as-sea-levels-rise-what-will-it-take-to-protect-the-bay-area-from-flooding\">sea level rise\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael, have a patchwork of private levees. This winter will likely put those barriers to the test.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12018103/king-tides-foreshadow-far-wetter-future-sf-shoreline\">San Francisco seawall\u003c/a>,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001566\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/07/260721-ELNINOWORST-NG-221-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kristina Hill, professor of Landscape Architecture & Environmental Planning and Urban Design at UC Berkeley, poses for a photo at the San Rafael Yacht Harbor in San Rafael on July 21, 2026. (Nina Glick/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Depending on the level of flooding, Hill said, it could show the region that it’s time “to do business differently” by building with more imagination and constructing buildings that are ready for higher seas. She dreams of floating buildings along the bay, like the Ferry Building, or entire blocks of housing as a way to live on the water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The things we’ve done in the past to prevent coastal flooding won’t work when that water doesn’t go back down again,” Hill said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Bentley said that future — where the water doesn’t recede and daily tides inundate shorelines — is something he worries about at the dojo in San Rafael. From inside his practice, Bentley has a front-row view of the boats in the marina as they move up and down with the tide. He can tell when the water is rising. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was kind of crazy to drive in here and see the boats above you,” Bentley said. “Over the last three years I’ve noticed the boats are getting higher and higher and higher.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And every time it rains, Bentley remembers the memory of the January flood that nearly shut down his practice.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“As someone who has lived and worked near water, I’ve only seen flooding get worse,” Bentley said. “We should just start preparing for it versus crossing our fingers.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Snowpack at Record Lows, One-Quarter of Normal in First Measurement of Year",
"headTitle": "California’s Snowpack at Record Lows, One-Quarter of Normal in First Measurement of Year | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Standing on a patch of snow near Lake Tahoe, Sean de Guzman, manager of the state’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting section, pierced the snow with a metal tube to detect how much snow was on Tuesday’s ground. He then added the number to \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">a statewide database of snow measurements\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news? He found the snowpack across the entire Sierra Nevada is just one-quarter of normal. One year ago, he stood on about five feet of snow here \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982147/california-snowpack-may-hold-record-amount-of-water-with-significant-flooding-possible\">when the snowpack was at 177% of normal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Today’s result shows that it’s really still too early to determine what kind of year we’ll have in terms of wet or dry,” de Guzman said. “Luckily, our statewide reservoirs are still well above average this time of year, thanks partly to how wet it was last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news is that meteorologists expect a winter storm to pile up more than a foot of snow on the Sierra Nevada tonight and tomorrow morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A cold front is coming in, so the storm is gonna be a little bit colder and snow elevations lower,” de Guzman said. That’ll add snow to the pack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1742250438123225550?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite these initial measurement numbers, the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook for January, February and March still shows an increased chance of above-normal precipitation and snow, partly because this year is an El Niño year. With that climate pattern in mind, there is a possibility that storm after storm could batter the state, ultimately building up the snowpack to record levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, California’s preparing for both extreme conditions, either extremely dry or extremely wet conditions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1742278337001828862?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, not all El Niño years guarantee a wet winter because they “span the gap from dry years to wet years. So by itself, El Niño’s really not a good predictor of the water year,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said a warm December led to “an absolutely abysmal snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What this means, as of today, is that the snowpack is at or below all-time record low numbers for the beginning of January,” he said. “I know that it is pretty alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said there is a possibility of a sequence of three to five storms in the near future that could help build the snowpack, but he said there may be snow drought conditions this winter in part because of warmer temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t necessarily think this is going to be a good snow year,” he said. “In fact, it might end up being a pretty bad snow year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking back to 1978, UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab’s Andrew Schwartz said snowfall in California is declining about every month and rainfall is increasing. Those warmer temperatures and decreasing snowfall could complicate how the state stores water for the rest of the year. The snowpack is considered a frozen reservoir that slowly melts into rivers, streams and reservoirs, but if too much snow comes as rain instead, it could overwhelm reservoirs and may complicate water storage for drier times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This really shows us that our snow season is getting shorter,” he said. “We’re going to have to plan for shorter periods of snowpack and the complications that may bring with our management of water resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985949\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/240102-snow-survey-dwr-fg-02-kqed/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985949\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An open field with patches of snow and bare grass.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">So far, the snow levels are lacking depth, with a number of bare spots in the meadow where the California Department of Water Resources conducted its first snow survey of the 2024 season. \u003ccite>(Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, up to an inch of rain could fall in the first storm this week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn. He expects wind gusts of up to 30 miles per hour and a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1742293541580415215?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the storm is not a slow-moving storm riding an atmospheric river, which can dump rain, creating flooding issues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just beneficial rain to help our rainfall totals for the year, but we don’t really have a big flooding threat,” he said\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flynn forecasts two storm systems Friday and Saturday but said they will likely produce even less rain than today’s storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But looking ahead over the next two weeks, that kind of trend is going to continue, where every three days or five days or so, there’s going to be another system that comes through and gives a good amount of rain,” he said. “But there’s nothing that looks like a major, major rain producer like we saw this time last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Storms this week could add to the snowpack, but climate experts are concerned over the year’s shaky start.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Standing on a patch of snow near Lake Tahoe, Sean de Guzman, manager of the state’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting section, pierced the snow with a metal tube to detect how much snow was on Tuesday’s ground. He then added the number to \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">a statewide database of snow measurements\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news? He found the snowpack across the entire Sierra Nevada is just one-quarter of normal. One year ago, he stood on about five feet of snow here \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982147/california-snowpack-may-hold-record-amount-of-water-with-significant-flooding-possible\">when the snowpack was at 177% of normal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Today’s result shows that it’s really still too early to determine what kind of year we’ll have in terms of wet or dry,” de Guzman said. “Luckily, our statewide reservoirs are still well above average this time of year, thanks partly to how wet it was last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news is that meteorologists expect a winter storm to pile up more than a foot of snow on the Sierra Nevada tonight and tomorrow morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A cold front is coming in, so the storm is gonna be a little bit colder and snow elevations lower,” de Guzman said. That’ll add snow to the pack.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Despite these initial measurement numbers, the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook for January, February and March still shows an increased chance of above-normal precipitation and snow, partly because this year is an El Niño year. With that climate pattern in mind, there is a possibility that storm after storm could batter the state, ultimately building up the snowpack to record levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, California’s preparing for both extreme conditions, either extremely dry or extremely wet conditions,” he said.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>However, not all El Niño years guarantee a wet winter because they “span the gap from dry years to wet years. So by itself, El Niño’s really not a good predictor of the water year,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said a warm December led to “an absolutely abysmal snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What this means, as of today, is that the snowpack is at or below all-time record low numbers for the beginning of January,” he said. “I know that it is pretty alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said there is a possibility of a sequence of three to five storms in the near future that could help build the snowpack, but he said there may be snow drought conditions this winter in part because of warmer temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t necessarily think this is going to be a good snow year,” he said. “In fact, it might end up being a pretty bad snow year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking back to 1978, UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab’s Andrew Schwartz said snowfall in California is declining about every month and rainfall is increasing. Those warmer temperatures and decreasing snowfall could complicate how the state stores water for the rest of the year. The snowpack is considered a frozen reservoir that slowly melts into rivers, streams and reservoirs, but if too much snow comes as rain instead, it could overwhelm reservoirs and may complicate water storage for drier times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This really shows us that our snow season is getting shorter,” he said. “We’re going to have to plan for shorter periods of snowpack and the complications that may bring with our management of water resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985949\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/240102-snow-survey-dwr-fg-02-kqed/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985949\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An open field with patches of snow and bare grass.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">So far, the snow levels are lacking depth, with a number of bare spots in the meadow where the California Department of Water Resources conducted its first snow survey of the 2024 season. \u003ccite>(Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, up to an inch of rain could fall in the first storm this week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn. He expects wind gusts of up to 30 miles per hour and a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>However, the storm is not a slow-moving storm riding an atmospheric river, which can dump rain, creating flooding issues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just beneficial rain to help our rainfall totals for the year, but we don’t really have a big flooding threat,” he said\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flynn forecasts two storm systems Friday and Saturday but said they will likely produce even less rain than today’s storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But looking ahead over the next two weeks, that kind of trend is going to continue, where every three days or five days or so, there’s going to be another system that comes through and gives a good amount of rain,” he said. “But there’s nothing that looks like a major, major rain producer like we saw this time last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "el-nino-is-back-will-that-mean-rain-and-snow-for-californias-2023-winter",
"title": "El Niño’s Return: What It Means for California’s Winter Weather",
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"content": "\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=science_1982822 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg']Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_11936674 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/10/2023/03/RS63686_002_KQED_AtmosphericRiver_03142023-qut-1020x680.jpg']Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "From snow forecasts to wet storms, how could El Niño impact California's weather in winter 2023? Climate experts weigh in on the predictability of El Niño.",
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"title": "El Niño's Impact on California: Rain & Snow Ahead | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>After a four-year hiatus, El Niño is widely expected to make a grand reentrance this summer, ushering in the possibility of yet another wet, stormy winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like it’s full steam ahead,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a live YouTube interview last week, in which he placed the likelihood of a strong El Niño event at greater than 50% — even as projections still vary widely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A strong event does have the potential for strong impacts on California,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-el-nino\">climate phenomenon\u003c/a> — the opposite of \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-la-nina\">La Niña\u003c/a> — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982830\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\" alt=\"A vertical bar chart showing El Niño events since 1950.\" width=\"2182\" height=\"1400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png 2182w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-800x513.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1020x654.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-768x493.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1536x986.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-2048x1314.png 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1920x1232.png 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2182px) 100vw, 2182px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast, often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles, said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a wet winter is not at all guaranteed, he said, noting that only one out of about six current models predicts a strong El Niño as this year progresses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have been sort of charmed into believing that all El Niños mean storms,” Monteverdi said. “The historical record does not support a sure bet on that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Misconceptions about this mysterious weather pattern abound. Below are six of the most common ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 1: El Niño comes to California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Every time Jan Null reads a headline saying El Niño is coming to the West Coast, he cringes. The local forecaster, who founded \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/\">Golden Gate Weather Service\u003c/a>, said the headlines aren’t factual because El Niño actually occurs “about 3,000 miles away from California. It does not move en masse toward the California coast.” It can, however, greatly affect the weather in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 2: Every El Niño event and its effects are identical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For the more than seven decades that El Niños have been tracked, their strength and impact have varied significantly, with many having little impact in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The general notion is that El Niño brings wetter winters in California, although the relationship is somewhat fragile,” said UC Berkeley climate scientist John Chiang. “It’s really only the strong El Niños that affect rainfall over Northern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And a slew of other oceanic and atmospheric variables can enhance or diffuse the effects of El Niño, noted meteorologist Null, saying, “I’ve often referred to it as the alphabet soup of all these other climate things going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 3: El Niño is a storm\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is not a storm in and of itself,” Monteverdi said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, he explains, it is a phenomenon that can prime the atmosphere to push more robust storms toward the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños do “not spawn storms” and “do not directly create storms over California or anywhere else,” added Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 4: El Niños always result in catastrophic flooding\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Significant flooding can just as likely occur in a non-El Niño period like the one Californians experienced this past winter (which was technically in a La Niña year).[aside label=\"related coverage\" tag=\"el-nino\"]Since 1950, \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html\">there have been 26 El Niño years\u003c/a>, and that doesn’t include some of the costliest flood years, Null said. That means it’s very difficult to accurately predict just how wet a winter we’re in for this year, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s slightly skewed toward the wetter than normal, but it’s not something where I’d reach into my wallet and put money on the table betting on it,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 5: El Niños cause elevated ocean temperatures along California’s coastal waters\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño is \u003cem>not\u003c/em> responsible for any warming of ocean temperatures along the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not true that when we have El Niño, we automatically have warm water immediately west of San Francisco,” said Monteverdi. “It refers to an oceanographic phenomenon in the tropical Pacific well away from us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water along California is primarily influenced by the California Current, which runs from north to south from the Gulf of Alaska down along the West Coast, where cold water comes to the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no real transport mechanism for the warm water at the equator 3,000 miles away to get to the California coast and that sort of gets lost in the discussion,” said Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 6: Climate change is having a clear impact on the frequency and severity of El Niños\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While climate change from the burning of fossil fuels has indisputably accelerated weather extremes in California — fueling significantly wetter and dryer conditions — climate experts still don’t know precisely how it has affected the nature of El Niño, in part because records about it in California only go back to about 1950.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have this conversation 20 years from now, we may start seeing more of these big events in that same time frame — then it’s easier to attribute it [to climate change],” Null said. “Right now, they’re still separating the signal from the noise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, future storms fueled by El Niños could be a whole lot wetter than they used to be because of climate change, which has resulted in an increasingly warmer atmosphere that can hold more water and, in turn, dump more on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global ocean warming “will change our weather patterns,” said Chiang, of UC Berkeley. “It’ll change the impact of El Niño. So, whether we see it now or in the decades ahead, that’s still an open debate.”\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>After a four-year hiatus, El Niño is widely expected to make a grand reentrance this summer, ushering in the possibility of yet another wet, stormy winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like it’s full steam ahead,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a live YouTube interview last week, in which he placed the likelihood of a strong El Niño event at greater than 50% — even as projections still vary widely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A strong event does have the potential for strong impacts on California,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-el-nino\">climate phenomenon\u003c/a> — the opposite of \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-la-nina\">La Niña\u003c/a> — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982830\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\" alt=\"A vertical bar chart showing El Niño events since 1950.\" width=\"2182\" height=\"1400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png 2182w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-800x513.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1020x654.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-768x493.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1536x986.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-2048x1314.png 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1920x1232.png 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2182px) 100vw, 2182px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast, often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles, said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a wet winter is not at all guaranteed, he said, noting that only one out of about six current models predicts a strong El Niño as this year progresses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have been sort of charmed into believing that all El Niños mean storms,” Monteverdi said. “The historical record does not support a sure bet on that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Misconceptions about this mysterious weather pattern abound. Below are six of the most common ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 1: El Niño comes to California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Every time Jan Null reads a headline saying El Niño is coming to the West Coast, he cringes. The local forecaster, who founded \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/\">Golden Gate Weather Service\u003c/a>, said the headlines aren’t factual because El Niño actually occurs “about 3,000 miles away from California. It does not move en masse toward the California coast.” It can, however, greatly affect the weather in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 2: Every El Niño event and its effects are identical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For the more than seven decades that El Niños have been tracked, their strength and impact have varied significantly, with many having little impact in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The general notion is that El Niño brings wetter winters in California, although the relationship is somewhat fragile,” said UC Berkeley climate scientist John Chiang. “It’s really only the strong El Niños that affect rainfall over Northern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And a slew of other oceanic and atmospheric variables can enhance or diffuse the effects of El Niño, noted meteorologist Null, saying, “I’ve often referred to it as the alphabet soup of all these other climate things going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 3: El Niño is a storm\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is not a storm in and of itself,” Monteverdi said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, he explains, it is a phenomenon that can prime the atmosphere to push more robust storms toward the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños do “not spawn storms” and “do not directly create storms over California or anywhere else,” added Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 4: El Niños always result in catastrophic flooding\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Significant flooding can just as likely occur in a non-El Niño period like the one Californians experienced this past winter (which was technically in a La Niña year).\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Since 1950, \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html\">there have been 26 El Niño years\u003c/a>, and that doesn’t include some of the costliest flood years, Null said. That means it’s very difficult to accurately predict just how wet a winter we’re in for this year, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s slightly skewed toward the wetter than normal, but it’s not something where I’d reach into my wallet and put money on the table betting on it,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 5: El Niños cause elevated ocean temperatures along California’s coastal waters\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño is \u003cem>not\u003c/em> responsible for any warming of ocean temperatures along the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not true that when we have El Niño, we automatically have warm water immediately west of San Francisco,” said Monteverdi. “It refers to an oceanographic phenomenon in the tropical Pacific well away from us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water along California is primarily influenced by the California Current, which runs from north to south from the Gulf of Alaska down along the West Coast, where cold water comes to the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no real transport mechanism for the warm water at the equator 3,000 miles away to get to the California coast and that sort of gets lost in the discussion,” said Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 6: Climate change is having a clear impact on the frequency and severity of El Niños\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While climate change from the burning of fossil fuels has indisputably accelerated weather extremes in California — fueling significantly wetter and dryer conditions — climate experts still don’t know precisely how it has affected the nature of El Niño, in part because records about it in California only go back to about 1950.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have this conversation 20 years from now, we may start seeing more of these big events in that same time frame — then it’s easier to attribute it [to climate change],” Null said. “Right now, they’re still separating the signal from the noise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, future storms fueled by El Niños could be a whole lot wetter than they used to be because of climate change, which has resulted in an increasingly warmer atmosphere that can hold more water and, in turn, dump more on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global ocean warming “will change our weather patterns,” said Chiang, of UC Berkeley. “It’ll change the impact of El Niño. So, whether we see it now or in the decades ahead, that’s still an open debate.”\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Kelp, Sea Otters and Urchins. Who's Eating Who in Monterey Bay",
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"content": "\u003cp class=\"p1\">Marine scientists have observed a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949757/massive-california-kelp-decline-linked-to-ocean-heat-wave-voracious-sea-urchins\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">massive decline\u003c/span>\u003c/a> of California’s underwater kelp forests in recent years. Studies have linked the die-off to a host of factors including an ocean heat wave, a deadly sea star virus, and an influx of voracious kelp-eating sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Kelp’s long flat leaves and bulbous stems provide habitat for marine mammals, fish and invertebrates in tidal regions along California’s coast. In many regions where kelp once flourished, the ocean floor is now carpeted with spiny purple sea urchins and there’s no kelp to be found. Scientists call these zones the urchin barrens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">A new study out of UC Santa Cruz reveals more about the disappearance of California’s kelp forests, finding the leafy green seaweed is faring better in places where sea otters, a natural urchin predator, are thriving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973221\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973221\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the kelp forest ecosystem in Northern California has been replaced by urchin barrens dominated by purple sea urchins. \u003ccite>(Katie Sowul/CDFW)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Several studies have documented the collapse of the kelp ecosystem in California. The story goes something like this: A giant, warm-water “blob” first observed by scientists off the Washington coast in 2013 combined with an El Nino weather event from the south resulted in a prolonged marine heatwave in California from 2014-16. Kelp thrives in colder tidal waters, which have the nutrients it needs to survive. Faced with warmer water, the kelp essentially starved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The historically hardy plant, which can grow up to 2 feet per day, could have bounced back from the heat wave, but for a disease that that nearly eradicated sunflower stars along the West Coast. This large, 24-limbed starfish feeds on purple sea urchins; without stars around, urchin populations swelled and changed their typical hunting behavior. Instead of merely grazing on fallen kelp leaves, the urchins began gobbling up the kelp’s stalks and seed pods as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In Northern California, satellite images have revealed a roughly 95% decline in kelp forest canopy as a result of these events. But in Central California waters, kelp has fared somewhat better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The Central Coast saw a similar urchin outbreak in 2014, says Joshua Smith, a Ph.D. candidate and kelp forest researcher at UC Santa Cruz. “But what was different here was that instead of having this widespread kelp deforestation, we actually had this patchy mosaic of kelp forests interspersed with these patches of sea urchin barrens\u003ci>,” \u003c/i>he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973227\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973227\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A healthy forest of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Smith says this unique phenomenon gave his group an opportunity to look closer at the factors driving the kelp decline and its potential for recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/content/118/11/e2012493118\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">study\u003c/span>\u003c/a>, published this week in \u003cspan class=\"s2\">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003c/span>, links the presence of sea otters in Monterey Bay to patches of lush, healthy kelp forest.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Smith called Monterey Bay “sea otter country,” pointing out more of the species inhabited the area than any other in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">\u003ci>“\u003c/i>This is a sea otter country,” Smith said. “We have the highest abundance of sea otters here in Monterey Bay than anywhere else in the state\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Sea otters, like sunflower stars, are a natural predator of sea urchins. \u003ci> \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">“The key finding of what this actually means is that otters are so important for this ecosystem because they are maintaining these remnant patches of kelp forests,” Smith said, “And those patches of kelp are the ultimate source populations to help replenish those barren patches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">The study shows that the sea otter population in Monterey Bay grew in the wake of the urchin boom, with an increased survival rate for pups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">While scientists can’t say for sure, the lack of sea otters and other urchin predators north of the San Francisco Bay may help explain why Northern California’s kelp forests have suffered more than on other parts of the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973226\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973226\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins feeding on kelp. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Sea otters haven’t been spotted on the North Coast since the 1800s, says Meredith McPherson, a UC Santa Cruz marine scientist who recently published \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">a separate study\u003c/span>\u003c/a> on Northern California’s kelp decline. “From what we observed in the satellite data from the last 35 years, the kelp had been doing well without sea otters as long as we still had sunflower stars. Once they were gone, there were no urchin predators left in the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Without natural predators, McPherson says, scuba divers are helping maintain what’s left of the region’s kelp forests by plucking out interloping urchins. But while ocean temperatures and nutrient levels have normalized some since the 2014-16 heat waves, she says kelp haven’t seen any significant rebound.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“There seems to be some evidence that some patches of kelp have reemerged in certain areas, but it’s nothing to the extent that we would expect from the historical data,” she said. “The concentrations of urchins are still really high and [are] creating the strong grazing pressure on any kind of recovery.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">McPherson says while the urchin barrens persist, a full-scale kelp recovery is unlikely. Even without kelp to eat, urchins have shown resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“That’s where some people have used the term zombie urchin,” Smith said. “These urchins are remarkable in that they can persist in this starved state in the sea urchin barrens for years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Smith’s study revealed that otters largely ignore urchins in the barrens, as they lack the nutritional value of those that have kelp to forage on. Scientists say another environmental event will likely be needed to reduce urchin populations and tip the scales in favor of kelp.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“A number of things could take out the urchins.” Smith said. “It could be urchin disease or it could be a bottom-scouring swell that physically wipes sea urchins off the reef.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">In the meantime, otters may be key to kelp’s chance for a long-term recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp class=\"p1\">Marine scientists have observed a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949757/massive-california-kelp-decline-linked-to-ocean-heat-wave-voracious-sea-urchins\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">massive decline\u003c/span>\u003c/a> of California’s underwater kelp forests in recent years. Studies have linked the die-off to a host of factors including an ocean heat wave, a deadly sea star virus, and an influx of voracious kelp-eating sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Kelp’s long flat leaves and bulbous stems provide habitat for marine mammals, fish and invertebrates in tidal regions along California’s coast. In many regions where kelp once flourished, the ocean floor is now carpeted with spiny purple sea urchins and there’s no kelp to be found. Scientists call these zones the urchin barrens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">A new study out of UC Santa Cruz reveals more about the disappearance of California’s kelp forests, finding the leafy green seaweed is faring better in places where sea otters, a natural urchin predator, are thriving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973221\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973221\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the kelp forest ecosystem in Northern California has been replaced by urchin barrens dominated by purple sea urchins. \u003ccite>(Katie Sowul/CDFW)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Several studies have documented the collapse of the kelp ecosystem in California. The story goes something like this: A giant, warm-water “blob” first observed by scientists off the Washington coast in 2013 combined with an El Nino weather event from the south resulted in a prolonged marine heatwave in California from 2014-16. Kelp thrives in colder tidal waters, which have the nutrients it needs to survive. Faced with warmer water, the kelp essentially starved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The historically hardy plant, which can grow up to 2 feet per day, could have bounced back from the heat wave, but for a disease that that nearly eradicated sunflower stars along the West Coast. This large, 24-limbed starfish feeds on purple sea urchins; without stars around, urchin populations swelled and changed their typical hunting behavior. Instead of merely grazing on fallen kelp leaves, the urchins began gobbling up the kelp’s stalks and seed pods as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In Northern California, satellite images have revealed a roughly 95% decline in kelp forest canopy as a result of these events. But in Central California waters, kelp has fared somewhat better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The Central Coast saw a similar urchin outbreak in 2014, says Joshua Smith, a Ph.D. candidate and kelp forest researcher at UC Santa Cruz. “But what was different here was that instead of having this widespread kelp deforestation, we actually had this patchy mosaic of kelp forests interspersed with these patches of sea urchin barrens\u003ci>,” \u003c/i>he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973227\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973227\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A healthy forest of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Smith says this unique phenomenon gave his group an opportunity to look closer at the factors driving the kelp decline and its potential for recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/content/118/11/e2012493118\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">study\u003c/span>\u003c/a>, published this week in \u003cspan class=\"s2\">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003c/span>, links the presence of sea otters in Monterey Bay to patches of lush, healthy kelp forest.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Smith called Monterey Bay “sea otter country,” pointing out more of the species inhabited the area than any other in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">\u003ci>“\u003c/i>This is a sea otter country,” Smith said. “We have the highest abundance of sea otters here in Monterey Bay than anywhere else in the state\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Sea otters, like sunflower stars, are a natural predator of sea urchins. \u003ci> \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">“The key finding of what this actually means is that otters are so important for this ecosystem because they are maintaining these remnant patches of kelp forests,” Smith said, “And those patches of kelp are the ultimate source populations to help replenish those barren patches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">The study shows that the sea otter population in Monterey Bay grew in the wake of the urchin boom, with an increased survival rate for pups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">While scientists can’t say for sure, the lack of sea otters and other urchin predators north of the San Francisco Bay may help explain why Northern California’s kelp forests have suffered more than on other parts of the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973226\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973226\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins feeding on kelp. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Sea otters haven’t been spotted on the North Coast since the 1800s, says Meredith McPherson, a UC Santa Cruz marine scientist who recently published \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">a separate study\u003c/span>\u003c/a> on Northern California’s kelp decline. “From what we observed in the satellite data from the last 35 years, the kelp had been doing well without sea otters as long as we still had sunflower stars. Once they were gone, there were no urchin predators left in the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Without natural predators, McPherson says, scuba divers are helping maintain what’s left of the region’s kelp forests by plucking out interloping urchins. But while ocean temperatures and nutrient levels have normalized some since the 2014-16 heat waves, she says kelp haven’t seen any significant rebound.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“There seems to be some evidence that some patches of kelp have reemerged in certain areas, but it’s nothing to the extent that we would expect from the historical data,” she said. “The concentrations of urchins are still really high and [are] creating the strong grazing pressure on any kind of recovery.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">McPherson says while the urchin barrens persist, a full-scale kelp recovery is unlikely. Even without kelp to eat, urchins have shown resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“That’s where some people have used the term zombie urchin,” Smith said. “These urchins are remarkable in that they can persist in this starved state in the sea urchin barrens for years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Smith’s study revealed that otters largely ignore urchins in the barrens, as they lack the nutritional value of those that have kelp to forage on. Scientists say another environmental event will likely be needed to reduce urchin populations and tip the scales in favor of kelp.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“A number of things could take out the urchins.” Smith said. “It could be urchin disease or it could be a bottom-scouring swell that physically wipes sea urchins off the reef.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">In the meantime, otters may be key to kelp’s chance for a long-term recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Why You Shouldn’t Get Your Hopes up About an El Niño This Winter",
"headTitle": "Why You Shouldn’t Get Your Hopes up About an El Niño This Winter | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>An El Niño is forecast for the winter ahead, and we all know what that means. Or do we?[contextly_sidebar id=”v01DQ6sHcL6Y8AAzxIVYHh4sXp64rj2P”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño – that cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean – has long been associated with wet winters across much of the West. Which is always welcome news across the chronically water-short region. But in reality, whether El Niño actually delivers greater-than-normal precipitation is strictly a toss-up, says Jan Null, owner of \u003ca href=\"https://ggweather.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Golden Gate Weather Services\u003c/a>, a consultancy based in Saratoga, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center tells us, in its \u003ca href=\"http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">most recent forecast\u003c/a> of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span>), that there is as much as a 70 percent chance of El Niño conditions forming during the winter ahead. And it’s likely to be a “weak” El Niño. But what does that mean? Elementally, it means the equatorial Pacific is expected to be warmer than normal, and this may alter weather events around the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it doesn’t mean you should get your hopes up for a wet winter. Null has taken it upon himself to try to bring a dose of reality to the situation, via an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso2016/us_elnino.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">exhaustive breakdown\u003c/a> of precipitation results from past El Niño events. In an interview with Water Deeply, he explains why our expectations about this weather phenomenon are often wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: What does an El Niño prediction mean for precipitation in California and elsewhere in the West?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jan Null: With any El Niño, and especially weak events, there is no strong correlation with either above- or below-normal precipitation in California. For example, in the very important Sacramento Basin, of the 10 weak El Niño events since 1950, five have been above normal and five below normal. And the range of these solutions is from 43 percent of normal in 1976–77 to 135 percent of normal in 1977–78.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, rainfall in the California portion of the Colorado ranges from 30 percent of normal in 2006–07 to 214 percent in 2004–05 – both weak El Niños.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Why is forecasting El Niño so difficult?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: The accuracy for seasonal forecasts is not nearly as absolute as our weather forecasts in the short term. So with forecasting El Niño, you’re going to run into all the same issues you have with any seasonal forecast. Also, we’re finding out more and more that \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events are not happening in a vacuum. It’s not the only thing that’s going on. You also have the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation. I call it an alphabet soup of different things we have going on in the oceans and atmosphere.[contextly_sidebar id=”OjbQz2QiEAo6yhwJeN0DQKaAZQE3BVcq”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, of these, the strongest single events are \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events, which I think is one of the reasons they get so much attention. But they don’t happen in that vacuum. So sometimes these other things make the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events stronger, or they might subtract from the impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So not only do we have to forecast what the ocean temperatures are going to be along this fairly narrow swathe of the equatorial Pacific. You really have to consider what’s going on in all these other places – looking at pressure patterns in the Arctic or what’s going on in the North Pacific. It’s a complex puzzle. If you forecast one piece out of place, all the other ones aren’t going to fit right together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then we also have to discuss the fact that you have climate change \u003cspan class=\"caps\">DNA\u003c/span> in everything that’s going on. The atmosphere and the oceans are warmer, so that’s going to add into the complexity of what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Much of the West is grappling with long-term water shortages. How should we manage our expectations around El Niño and avoid any ‘hype’?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: I don’t think it necessarily is El Niño hype. There is always the hope that the next winter is going to be wet. People fixate on the idea that “This is an El Niño storm.” Well, you also have big storms in years that are not El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Historically, the way we get our “normal” precipitation is typically by having a lot of years that are a little bit less than normal. And that’s really what the drought in 2011–15 was. So that means you have a deficit over those four years. So to make up that deficit, you not only have to have a normal year. You almost have to have a year that would be twice as wet as normal. But something we have learned is that we can recover without making up all the deficit. And I think we saw that with the water supply after what happened in 2016–17, which was a wet year.[contextly_sidebar id=”9g2Bx8SJCT2SYEdwrQtMNln84K4oOvGl”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s really important that water managers, the media and the public \u003ca class=\"preview-link\" href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">get out of the old mindset\u003c/a> from 1982–83 and 1997–98 that El Niño means a wet winter for California. I think the attention is appropriate. You just have to put it in context.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve often used, over the years, the analogy of a baseball team. You may have this one player who’s a superstar who helps you get more wins than any other player. But on any given day, somebody else might have a hot day and be the one who’s going to be the star. El Niño is not the only player on the team.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2018/10/11/why-you-shouldnt-get-your-hopes-up-about-an-el-nio-this-winter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "It’s become almost common currency that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean mean wet winters in the West. But history shows that’s not necessarily so, partly because many other weather phenomena also play a role in precipitation.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>An El Niño is forecast for the winter ahead, and we all know what that means. Or do we?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño – that cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean – has long been associated with wet winters across much of the West. Which is always welcome news across the chronically water-short region. But in reality, whether El Niño actually delivers greater-than-normal precipitation is strictly a toss-up, says Jan Null, owner of \u003ca href=\"https://ggweather.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Golden Gate Weather Services\u003c/a>, a consultancy based in Saratoga, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center tells us, in its \u003ca href=\"http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">most recent forecast\u003c/a> of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span>), that there is as much as a 70 percent chance of El Niño conditions forming during the winter ahead. And it’s likely to be a “weak” El Niño. But what does that mean? Elementally, it means the equatorial Pacific is expected to be warmer than normal, and this may alter weather events around the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it doesn’t mean you should get your hopes up for a wet winter. Null has taken it upon himself to try to bring a dose of reality to the situation, via an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso2016/us_elnino.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">exhaustive breakdown\u003c/a> of precipitation results from past El Niño events. In an interview with Water Deeply, he explains why our expectations about this weather phenomenon are often wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: What does an El Niño prediction mean for precipitation in California and elsewhere in the West?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jan Null: With any El Niño, and especially weak events, there is no strong correlation with either above- or below-normal precipitation in California. For example, in the very important Sacramento Basin, of the 10 weak El Niño events since 1950, five have been above normal and five below normal. And the range of these solutions is from 43 percent of normal in 1976–77 to 135 percent of normal in 1977–78.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, rainfall in the California portion of the Colorado ranges from 30 percent of normal in 2006–07 to 214 percent in 2004–05 – both weak El Niños.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Why is forecasting El Niño so difficult?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: The accuracy for seasonal forecasts is not nearly as absolute as our weather forecasts in the short term. So with forecasting El Niño, you’re going to run into all the same issues you have with any seasonal forecast. Also, we’re finding out more and more that \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events are not happening in a vacuum. It’s not the only thing that’s going on. You also have the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation. I call it an alphabet soup of different things we have going on in the oceans and atmosphere.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, of these, the strongest single events are \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events, which I think is one of the reasons they get so much attention. But they don’t happen in that vacuum. So sometimes these other things make the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events stronger, or they might subtract from the impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So not only do we have to forecast what the ocean temperatures are going to be along this fairly narrow swathe of the equatorial Pacific. You really have to consider what’s going on in all these other places – looking at pressure patterns in the Arctic or what’s going on in the North Pacific. It’s a complex puzzle. If you forecast one piece out of place, all the other ones aren’t going to fit right together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then we also have to discuss the fact that you have climate change \u003cspan class=\"caps\">DNA\u003c/span> in everything that’s going on. The atmosphere and the oceans are warmer, so that’s going to add into the complexity of what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Much of the West is grappling with long-term water shortages. How should we manage our expectations around El Niño and avoid any ‘hype’?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: I don’t think it necessarily is El Niño hype. There is always the hope that the next winter is going to be wet. People fixate on the idea that “This is an El Niño storm.” Well, you also have big storms in years that are not El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Historically, the way we get our “normal” precipitation is typically by having a lot of years that are a little bit less than normal. And that’s really what the drought in 2011–15 was. So that means you have a deficit over those four years. So to make up that deficit, you not only have to have a normal year. You almost have to have a year that would be twice as wet as normal. But something we have learned is that we can recover without making up all the deficit. And I think we saw that with the water supply after what happened in 2016–17, which was a wet year.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s really important that water managers, the media and the public \u003ca class=\"preview-link\" href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">get out of the old mindset\u003c/a> from 1982–83 and 1997–98 that El Niño means a wet winter for California. I think the attention is appropriate. You just have to put it in context.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve often used, over the years, the analogy of a baseball team. You may have this one player who’s a superstar who helps you get more wins than any other player. But on any given day, somebody else might have a hot day and be the one who’s going to be the star. El Niño is not the only player on the team.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2018/10/11/why-you-shouldnt-get-your-hopes-up-about-an-el-nio-this-winter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "A Sea Urchin Army Is Mowing Down California's Kelp Forests -- But Why?",
"headTitle": "A Sea Urchin Army Is Mowing Down California’s Kelp Forests — But Why? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Kelp forests are the marine mirror images to the towering redwoods onshore, the scaffolding that supports the image of the classic northern California coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But these oceanic forests are currently under siege from a potent mix of climate anomalies, disease, and predation that have led to declines in kelp forests not seen in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In their place, vast “urchin barrens” of bare rock picked clean by roving grazers. These sunken equivalents of forest clear-cuts gut the complex relationships that sustain a healthy ecosystem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rise of the Urchins\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weakened by rising ocean temperatures and aggressive storms, kelp forests were already disadvantaged when researchers began to notice urchin populations increasing in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927686\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1927686 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins are experiencing populations surges, leading to overgrazing of giant kelp. \u003ccite>(KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen urchins come through and mow down kelp,” says Tristin McHugh, north coast regional manager for Reef Check, a group of citizen science divers who conduct long-term monitoring studies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, for example, there was virtually minimal kelp,” she says. “The barrens were barren — just urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”WEKh98dtZPvhgISltBlFjiZHxmaGztiL”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McHugh attributes this increase to elevated recruitment during years in which sea urchin larvae settled out of the plankton in high densities and survived the tumultuous early years of adolescence. Urchins have become so numerous that they have since spawned several citizen science projects aimed at curtailing their numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Some Heroes Wear Furry Capes\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Traditionally, California’s iconic sea otter has stepped in to keep urchin populations in check. Otters feed on sea urchins, which in turn keeps them from overgrazing on kelp. Without otters, the implication is that we would cease to have kelp forests at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what happens when otters forget just what is on the menu?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the same way that you can eat many things but might prefer to eat pizza, otters are known to be generalists in their diets. But individuals have specific preferences which are passed from mother to pup.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927356\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1927356\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-160x51.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-768x247.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1020x328.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1200x386.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1920x617.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1180x379.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-960x309.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-240x77.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-375x121.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-520x167.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A raft of otters rests in Elkhorn Slough, Moss Landing, CA \u003ccite>(Heather Barrett)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>James Watanabe is a lecturer at Hopkins Marine Station, and he was the first to suggest that otters may have developed a “cultural memory loss.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From the big pulse of recruitment in the ’70’s, up until now, when the urchins started showing up again, there were three generations of otters with some sea urchins present,” he says, “but not enough for any otter to focus on as the main part of the diet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job. They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.’\u003ccite>Joe Tomoleoni, USGS\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s possible that the behavior died out if everyone who remembered how to do it has died.” adds Aimee Dunlap, who studies animal cognition at the University of Missouri. “When they reintroduced the California Condor,” she recalls, “they had to haul out carcasses, because they’d had a gap in the parents teaching the young how to be a Condor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Historical Precedent?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe points to the example of \u003cem>Kelletia\u003c/em>, a large predatory snail that moved north into kelp forests during the 1977-1978 El Niño, as a historical example of a time when otters exhibited similar behaviors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a big, meaty snail, and it has a big shell, and it got to the point where you could put your hand down anywhere in the kelp beds and one would be within a meter of your hand. But the otters weren’t going for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927360\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 580px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927360\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg 580w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Kellet’s Whelk in a Monterey kelp forest. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Eventually, he began to notice changes beneath the waves. “Within a period of about six months, the abundance dropped and there were a bunch of busted shells all over the place. It’s the damage that only an otter could typically do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Can We Really Blame the Otters?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Joe Tomoleoni, an otter biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, bristles at the idea of blaming the urchin boom solely on otters, arguing that it ignores the inherent complexity of kelp forests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[emailsignup newslettername='science' align='right'] “It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job,” he says. “They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomoleoni stresses that urchins have always been a major prey item for sea otters in California, and in fact, recent observations show more urchins being consumed now than in the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Perfect Storm\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite their importance, otter indifference would not be enough to explain what’s happening here. Michael Jacox, a Research Oceanographer with NOAA, points to a series of weather anomalies that have affected the Bay Area over the last five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927620\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 226px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927620\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"226\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg 226w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp-160x275.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 226px) 100vw, 226px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mature kelp plant in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It started with a persistent high pressure system which formed over the Pacific Ocean in late 2013. While winters in California are generally characterized as wet and mild, Jacox recalls how “the ridge deflected storms, and we weren’t getting storms or mixing and there was a heat buildup in the surface of the ocean.” This heat buildup, coupled with the extremely strong El Niño of 2015, ultimately impacted the entire US west coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it had serious implications for marine ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kelp in particular was hit especially hard by these warm conditions. “The story for kelp might be similar to how it is for phytoplankton,” Jacox suggests, “They need nutrients in the water, and they prefer cooler conditions. In phytoplankton, we saw really low productivity as a direct result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe suspects it may also have helped drive the urchin boom. To him, the warm water weakened kelp, but failed to kill it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kelp wasn’t very happy here during the warm water buildup,” he recalls, “but we didn’t see wholesale loss of the canopy like we’re seeing now with overgrazing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Hope\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While many researchers spoke to the unprecedented magnitude and persistence of these climate events, they were equally quick to point to signs that the kelp beds may already be recovering. Or at the very least, that they are optimistic the damage can be reversed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite his theory, Watanabe always stressed that it was only a matter of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those otters are so smart,” he says with a smile. “Once they figure out they can eat those urchins, I’m sure the otters will knock them back real quick and the kelp will recover.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, up on the north coast, we’ve seen cold water showing up,” adds McHugh. “We’ve seen high trade winds and we’ve seen upwelling…maybe our ecosystem is going to have a chance to recover.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Kelp is a keystone in the ocean ecosystem. It's not entirely clear why the urchins have taken over, but there's optimism that the kelp devastation is temporary.",
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"description": "Kelp is a keystone in the ocean ecosystem. It's not entirely clear why the urchins have taken over, but there's optimism that the kelp devastation is temporary.",
"title": "A Sea Urchin Army Is Mowing Down California's Kelp Forests -- But Why? | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Kelp forests are the marine mirror images to the towering redwoods onshore, the scaffolding that supports the image of the classic northern California coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But these oceanic forests are currently under siege from a potent mix of climate anomalies, disease, and predation that have led to declines in kelp forests not seen in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In their place, vast “urchin barrens” of bare rock picked clean by roving grazers. These sunken equivalents of forest clear-cuts gut the complex relationships that sustain a healthy ecosystem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rise of the Urchins\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weakened by rising ocean temperatures and aggressive storms, kelp forests were already disadvantaged when researchers began to notice urchin populations increasing in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927686\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1927686 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins are experiencing populations surges, leading to overgrazing of giant kelp. \u003ccite>(KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen urchins come through and mow down kelp,” says Tristin McHugh, north coast regional manager for Reef Check, a group of citizen science divers who conduct long-term monitoring studies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, for example, there was virtually minimal kelp,” she says. “The barrens were barren — just urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McHugh attributes this increase to elevated recruitment during years in which sea urchin larvae settled out of the plankton in high densities and survived the tumultuous early years of adolescence. Urchins have become so numerous that they have since spawned several citizen science projects aimed at curtailing their numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Some Heroes Wear Furry Capes\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Traditionally, California’s iconic sea otter has stepped in to keep urchin populations in check. Otters feed on sea urchins, which in turn keeps them from overgrazing on kelp. Without otters, the implication is that we would cease to have kelp forests at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what happens when otters forget just what is on the menu?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the same way that you can eat many things but might prefer to eat pizza, otters are known to be generalists in their diets. But individuals have specific preferences which are passed from mother to pup.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927356\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1927356\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-160x51.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-768x247.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1020x328.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1200x386.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1920x617.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1180x379.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-960x309.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-240x77.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-375x121.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-520x167.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A raft of otters rests in Elkhorn Slough, Moss Landing, CA \u003ccite>(Heather Barrett)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>James Watanabe is a lecturer at Hopkins Marine Station, and he was the first to suggest that otters may have developed a “cultural memory loss.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From the big pulse of recruitment in the ’70’s, up until now, when the urchins started showing up again, there were three generations of otters with some sea urchins present,” he says, “but not enough for any otter to focus on as the main part of the diet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job. They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.’\u003ccite>Joe Tomoleoni, USGS\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s possible that the behavior died out if everyone who remembered how to do it has died.” adds Aimee Dunlap, who studies animal cognition at the University of Missouri. “When they reintroduced the California Condor,” she recalls, “they had to haul out carcasses, because they’d had a gap in the parents teaching the young how to be a Condor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Historical Precedent?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe points to the example of \u003cem>Kelletia\u003c/em>, a large predatory snail that moved north into kelp forests during the 1977-1978 El Niño, as a historical example of a time when otters exhibited similar behaviors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a big, meaty snail, and it has a big shell, and it got to the point where you could put your hand down anywhere in the kelp beds and one would be within a meter of your hand. But the otters weren’t going for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927360\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 580px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927360\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg 580w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Kellet’s Whelk in a Monterey kelp forest. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Eventually, he began to notice changes beneath the waves. “Within a period of about six months, the abundance dropped and there were a bunch of busted shells all over the place. It’s the damage that only an otter could typically do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Can We Really Blame the Otters?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Joe Tomoleoni, an otter biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, bristles at the idea of blaming the urchin boom solely on otters, arguing that it ignores the inherent complexity of kelp forests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> “It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job,” he says. “They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomoleoni stresses that urchins have always been a major prey item for sea otters in California, and in fact, recent observations show more urchins being consumed now than in the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Perfect Storm\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite their importance, otter indifference would not be enough to explain what’s happening here. Michael Jacox, a Research Oceanographer with NOAA, points to a series of weather anomalies that have affected the Bay Area over the last five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927620\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 226px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927620\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"226\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg 226w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp-160x275.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 226px) 100vw, 226px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mature kelp plant in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It started with a persistent high pressure system which formed over the Pacific Ocean in late 2013. While winters in California are generally characterized as wet and mild, Jacox recalls how “the ridge deflected storms, and we weren’t getting storms or mixing and there was a heat buildup in the surface of the ocean.” This heat buildup, coupled with the extremely strong El Niño of 2015, ultimately impacted the entire US west coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it had serious implications for marine ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kelp in particular was hit especially hard by these warm conditions. “The story for kelp might be similar to how it is for phytoplankton,” Jacox suggests, “They need nutrients in the water, and they prefer cooler conditions. In phytoplankton, we saw really low productivity as a direct result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe suspects it may also have helped drive the urchin boom. To him, the warm water weakened kelp, but failed to kill it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kelp wasn’t very happy here during the warm water buildup,” he recalls, “but we didn’t see wholesale loss of the canopy like we’re seeing now with overgrazing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Hope\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While many researchers spoke to the unprecedented magnitude and persistence of these climate events, they were equally quick to point to signs that the kelp beds may already be recovering. Or at the very least, that they are optimistic the damage can be reversed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite his theory, Watanabe always stressed that it was only a matter of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those otters are so smart,” he says with a smile. “Once they figure out they can eat those urchins, I’m sure the otters will knock them back real quick and the kelp will recover.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, up on the north coast, we’ve seen cold water showing up,” adds McHugh. “We’ve seen high trade winds and we’ve seen upwelling…maybe our ecosystem is going to have a chance to recover.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Water: Seven Important Things That Happened in 2016",
"headTitle": "California’s Water: Seven Important Things That Happened in 2016 | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"start\">THIS YEAR HAS \u003c/span>been a big one for water. California is still mired in drought, although less of the state is suffering than in previous years and each winter rainstorm brings a fresh bit of optimism.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A large reserve of \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/27/new-groundwater-found-deep-under-central-valley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groundwater was found\u003c/a> deep under the drought-stricken Central Valley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/06/how-california-is-learning-to-love-drinking-recycled-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recycled water\u003c/a> continues to gain in popularity, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/19/how-saving-salmon-could-help-ease-the-next-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flooding to help fish and farmers\u003c/a> is panning out and 2016 will likely wrap up as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/science/2016-hottest-year-on-record.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hottest year on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below are seven other significant milestones that impacted California water and will help shape the year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>1. Disappointing El Nino\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The much-heralded El Nino that many hoped would lift California out of drought didn’t live up to expectations. And what precipitation did come was concentrated much more heavily in the northern parts of the state, leaving Southern California high and dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By mid-April, while snowpack was at 100 percent of average in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada, precipitation in \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-no-rain-20160415-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles was at only 58 percent\u003c/a>. And the snowpack reading for the southern Sierra Nevada on April 1 was \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES.04\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">65 percent of \u003c/a>average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To make matters worse, despite normal wet weather in the north, warmer temperatures meant that by May 1 the snowpack statewide dropped to only 55 percent of average – a marked improvement over the historically low snowpack of 2015, but nothing close to what the state needed to make a big impact on the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>2. Conservation Mandate Ends\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After nearly a year of Californians rising to the challenge of a 25 percent statewide conservation mandate, the policy was disbanded in May. The State Water Resources Control Board changed course and instead decided to let water agencies set their own conservation standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new rules center on a ‘self-certification’ process in which individual water districts will forecast their demand and supply for the next three years, assuming continued below-average precipitation,” the \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/20/california-lifts-statewide-conservation-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee reported\u003c/a>. “Districts would be required to reduce water use by an amount equal to their projected shortfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the decision, most water agencies \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/14/what-falling-water-conservation-numbers-mean-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set conservation goals\u003c/a> at or near zero, and conservation statewide fell.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>3. Diminishing Lake Mead\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In June, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lake Mead hit its lowest point\u003c/a> ever since the reservoir on the Colorado River was built 80 years ago. Around 19 million Californians, nearly half the state, get some portion of their drinking water from the Colorado River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bureau of Reclamation believes \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2a37e6597b6e4d1eaf591731a539de78/feds-see-shortage-2018-lake-mead-water-arizona-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the lake’s shortage\u003c/a> will be so low by 2018 it will not be able to make its deliveries to lower-basin states Nevada, Arizona and California. The three states have been working for months on a compromise, should the shortage warrant it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, in December the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reviewjournal.com/local/nevada/problems-california-complicate-negotiations-boost-sinking-lake-mead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Las Vegas Journal-Review\u003c/a> reported a new hitch – trouble in California is holding things up. “Before they agree to store more water in Lake Mead, California’s largest river users want to know how much water they might have to forgo to protect endangered fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta or keep the Salton Sea from drying up, triggering an ecological disaster,” the Journal-Review reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>4. Toxic Algae Outbreaks\u003c/h2>\n\u003cdiv id=\"attachment_108201\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The summer was marked by several outbreaks of toxic algae blooms in waters across the state, fueled by low water flows, warm temperatures and high levels of nutrients. Although toxic algae blooms happened in both Northern and Southern California, of particular concern was the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the Delta, it’s important to us because we have a large population base that uses this water, and protecting the water quality is of huge ecological importance,” \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/ssr/staff/lehman.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peggy Lehman\u003c/a>, a staff environmental scientist at the California Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/08/08/algae-outbreaks-fed-by-drought-climate-change-pollution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told Water Deeply\u003c/a>. “With the State Water Project drawing from the Delta, we have to take a look at the importance of anything like this because it could be quite detrimental to human health and water quality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch2>5. Tree Mortality on the Rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Recent aerial surveys indicate that the number of dead trees, thanks to drought and beetles, has risen to 102 million, with more than half dying in the last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The scale of die-off in California is unprecedented in our modern history,” Randy Moore, forester for the region of the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">U.S.\u003c/span> Forest Service that includes California, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-dead-trees-20161118-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles Times\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While statewide surveys have been conducted in the Sierra Nevada, smaller-scale research in coastal areas has also found that usually resilient oak trees are also dying from drought as tree roots can no longer reach falling aquifers.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>6. Federal Water Infrastructure Bill Signed\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In December, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/12/20/what-the-new-federal-water-bill-means-for-the-delta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">President Obama signed\u003c/a> the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, a $12 billion measure that provides aid for Flint, Michigan, and projects to fund dams and provide flood protection across the country. Stuffed into the legislation were controversial provisions that will affect how much water is pumped out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Doyle, \u003ca href=\"http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article119710733.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting for McClatchy\u003c/a>, called it “the biggest federal reset of California water use in a generation, setting the stage for easier dam-building, more recycling and potentially happier Central Valley farmers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law has received cheers from San Joaquin Valley farmers and jeers from the environmental community and Delta-area residents worried about overpumping from the environmentally sensitive Bay Delta. The law calls for pumps “to maximize water supplies for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project,” and may run into conflict with provisions in the Endangered Species Act that limit pumping at certain times to protect endangered fish species.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>7. Delta Tunnels Inch Forward\u003c/h2>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_863594\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-863594\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"The 30-mile tunnels would be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Plans for the 30-mile tunnels slated to be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta inched forward in 2016. \u003ccite>(California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With just over a week to go before the end of 2016, California took another step forward on California WaterFix, the plan to build twin tunnels in the Delta, by releasing more than 90,000 pages of a finalized \u003ca href=\"http://baydeltaconservationplan.com/FinalEIREIS.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">environmental impact report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erin Mellon, a spokeswoman for the state’s Natural Resources Agency, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/delta/article122434249.html#storylink=cpy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee\u003c/a> that the state hopes “to have federal permits approved next year and construction under way as early as 2018.” The report comes after “hundreds of public meetings and thousands of comments,” according to the Natural Resources Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“After years of scientific study and analysis, we have found the best solution for protecting both the Delta’s ecosystem and a vital water supply for California,” said Mark Cowin, director of the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Restore the Delta, one of the most outspoken critics of the plan, released a statement saying that the document “is \u003ca href=\"http://restorethedelta.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06887fa70084fef8e939fef63&id=e35cf8c02d&e=3659e00ed8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">not a green light\u003c/a> for the Delta Tunnels but rather should be understood as the submission of homework by sponsoring agencies … to be evaluated by state and federal regulators who will determine if proposal can meet environmental and water quality standards … A feat no previous version of the proposal has achieved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"fin\">The project still faces other hurdles, including hearings before the State Water Resources Control Board on water rights impacts and a crucial agreement by water districts on how to finance the project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The drought continues to impact California economically, politically and ecologically. Here’s a look at the most significant recent developments that will shape the year ahead.",
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"description": "The drought continues to impact California economically, politically and ecologically. Here’s a look at the most significant recent developments that will shape the year ahead.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"start\">THIS YEAR HAS \u003c/span>been a big one for water. California is still mired in drought, although less of the state is suffering than in previous years and each winter rainstorm brings a fresh bit of optimism.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A large reserve of \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/27/new-groundwater-found-deep-under-central-valley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groundwater was found\u003c/a> deep under the drought-stricken Central Valley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/06/how-california-is-learning-to-love-drinking-recycled-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recycled water\u003c/a> continues to gain in popularity, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/19/how-saving-salmon-could-help-ease-the-next-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flooding to help fish and farmers\u003c/a> is panning out and 2016 will likely wrap up as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/science/2016-hottest-year-on-record.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hottest year on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below are seven other significant milestones that impacted California water and will help shape the year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>1. Disappointing El Nino\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The much-heralded El Nino that many hoped would lift California out of drought didn’t live up to expectations. And what precipitation did come was concentrated much more heavily in the northern parts of the state, leaving Southern California high and dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By mid-April, while snowpack was at 100 percent of average in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada, precipitation in \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-no-rain-20160415-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles was at only 58 percent\u003c/a>. And the snowpack reading for the southern Sierra Nevada on April 1 was \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES.04\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">65 percent of \u003c/a>average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To make matters worse, despite normal wet weather in the north, warmer temperatures meant that by May 1 the snowpack statewide dropped to only 55 percent of average – a marked improvement over the historically low snowpack of 2015, but nothing close to what the state needed to make a big impact on the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>2. Conservation Mandate Ends\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After nearly a year of Californians rising to the challenge of a 25 percent statewide conservation mandate, the policy was disbanded in May. The State Water Resources Control Board changed course and instead decided to let water agencies set their own conservation standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new rules center on a ‘self-certification’ process in which individual water districts will forecast their demand and supply for the next three years, assuming continued below-average precipitation,” the \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/20/california-lifts-statewide-conservation-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee reported\u003c/a>. “Districts would be required to reduce water use by an amount equal to their projected shortfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the decision, most water agencies \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/14/what-falling-water-conservation-numbers-mean-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set conservation goals\u003c/a> at or near zero, and conservation statewide fell.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>3. Diminishing Lake Mead\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In June, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lake Mead hit its lowest point\u003c/a> ever since the reservoir on the Colorado River was built 80 years ago. Around 19 million Californians, nearly half the state, get some portion of their drinking water from the Colorado River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bureau of Reclamation believes \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2a37e6597b6e4d1eaf591731a539de78/feds-see-shortage-2018-lake-mead-water-arizona-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the lake’s shortage\u003c/a> will be so low by 2018 it will not be able to make its deliveries to lower-basin states Nevada, Arizona and California. The three states have been working for months on a compromise, should the shortage warrant it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, in December the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reviewjournal.com/local/nevada/problems-california-complicate-negotiations-boost-sinking-lake-mead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Las Vegas Journal-Review\u003c/a> reported a new hitch – trouble in California is holding things up. “Before they agree to store more water in Lake Mead, California’s largest river users want to know how much water they might have to forgo to protect endangered fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta or keep the Salton Sea from drying up, triggering an ecological disaster,” the Journal-Review reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>4. Toxic Algae Outbreaks\u003c/h2>\n\u003cdiv id=\"attachment_108201\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The summer was marked by several outbreaks of toxic algae blooms in waters across the state, fueled by low water flows, warm temperatures and high levels of nutrients. Although toxic algae blooms happened in both Northern and Southern California, of particular concern was the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the Delta, it’s important to us because we have a large population base that uses this water, and protecting the water quality is of huge ecological importance,” \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/ssr/staff/lehman.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peggy Lehman\u003c/a>, a staff environmental scientist at the California Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/08/08/algae-outbreaks-fed-by-drought-climate-change-pollution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told Water Deeply\u003c/a>. “With the State Water Project drawing from the Delta, we have to take a look at the importance of anything like this because it could be quite detrimental to human health and water quality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch2>5. Tree Mortality on the Rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Recent aerial surveys indicate that the number of dead trees, thanks to drought and beetles, has risen to 102 million, with more than half dying in the last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The scale of die-off in California is unprecedented in our modern history,” Randy Moore, forester for the region of the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">U.S.\u003c/span> Forest Service that includes California, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-dead-trees-20161118-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles Times\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While statewide surveys have been conducted in the Sierra Nevada, smaller-scale research in coastal areas has also found that usually resilient oak trees are also dying from drought as tree roots can no longer reach falling aquifers.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>6. Federal Water Infrastructure Bill Signed\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In December, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/12/20/what-the-new-federal-water-bill-means-for-the-delta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">President Obama signed\u003c/a> the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, a $12 billion measure that provides aid for Flint, Michigan, and projects to fund dams and provide flood protection across the country. Stuffed into the legislation were controversial provisions that will affect how much water is pumped out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Doyle, \u003ca href=\"http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article119710733.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting for McClatchy\u003c/a>, called it “the biggest federal reset of California water use in a generation, setting the stage for easier dam-building, more recycling and potentially happier Central Valley farmers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law has received cheers from San Joaquin Valley farmers and jeers from the environmental community and Delta-area residents worried about overpumping from the environmentally sensitive Bay Delta. The law calls for pumps “to maximize water supplies for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project,” and may run into conflict with provisions in the Endangered Species Act that limit pumping at certain times to protect endangered fish species.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>7. Delta Tunnels Inch Forward\u003c/h2>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_863594\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-863594\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"The 30-mile tunnels would be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Plans for the 30-mile tunnels slated to be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta inched forward in 2016. \u003ccite>(California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With just over a week to go before the end of 2016, California took another step forward on California WaterFix, the plan to build twin tunnels in the Delta, by releasing more than 90,000 pages of a finalized \u003ca href=\"http://baydeltaconservationplan.com/FinalEIREIS.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">environmental impact report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erin Mellon, a spokeswoman for the state’s Natural Resources Agency, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/delta/article122434249.html#storylink=cpy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee\u003c/a> that the state hopes “to have federal permits approved next year and construction under way as early as 2018.” The report comes after “hundreds of public meetings and thousands of comments,” according to the Natural Resources Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“After years of scientific study and analysis, we have found the best solution for protecting both the Delta’s ecosystem and a vital water supply for California,” said Mark Cowin, director of the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Restore the Delta, one of the most outspoken critics of the plan, released a statement saying that the document “is \u003ca href=\"http://restorethedelta.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06887fa70084fef8e939fef63&id=e35cf8c02d&e=3659e00ed8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">not a green light\u003c/a> for the Delta Tunnels but rather should be understood as the submission of homework by sponsoring agencies … to be evaluated by state and federal regulators who will determine if proposal can meet environmental and water quality standards … A feat no previous version of the proposal has achieved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"fin\">The project still faces other hurdles, including hearings before the State Water Resources Control Board on water rights impacts and a crucial agreement by water districts on how to finance the project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Blue Whale Recovery Signals Improving Ocean Conditions",
"headTitle": "Blue Whale Recovery Signals Improving Ocean Conditions | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Twenty six nautical miles outside the Golden Gate, the spindly peaks of the Farallon Islands bobbing in view, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sanctuarysimon.org/regional_sections/fulmar/\">R/V Fulmar\u003c/a> research vessel has made space for me to observe how researchers carry out their commitment to keep our oceans healthy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still working on developing my sea legs, I clamber up a ladder to the top deck, and as gingerly as possible, stumble to the bow of the boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This vessel is run by a marine conservation partnership called \u003ca href=\"http://www.accessoceans.org/\">ACCESS\u003c/a>, or the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies. The crew, comprised of marine researchers from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (\u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">NOAA)\u003c/a> and the non-profit agency \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointblue.org/\">Point Blue\u003c/a>, is scanning the horizon for signs of life, which they are finding in abundance. [contextly_sidebar id=”bwAQS8zN4wV2Q3mMQXirOa6vGPpNfj18″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On this brilliant July afternoon, the scientists on board are deploying nets and hauling in microscopic forms of life from the ocean. They pull in tiny krill and their even tinier food source, plankton, the marine plants that form the foundation of the ocean’s food chain and shed light on the health of the vital marine habitat off the coast of Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One researcher records the number of wildlife that surround the boat, while the others gaze through binoculars and call out species names as they see them — like puffins, white-sided dolphins and \u003ca href=\"http://www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/red-necked-phalarope\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">red-necked phalaropes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_897891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-897891 size-medium\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the AV Fulmar's marine research crew.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1920x1080.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the R/V Fulmar’s marine research crew. \u003ccite>(Aurora MacRae-Crerar/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>First mate Marshall Stein offers me his front-row swivel seat and moments later, there’s a wave of excitement as one, two, three, four blue whales come into focus. Mouth agape, I stare at the largest animals the planet has ever seen as they spout water from their blowholes, the silhouettes of their majestic blue backs against the backdrop of the Farallon Islands. I am speechless. So are the marine biologists. This is extraordinary, not only for a novice like me, but also for seasoned researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_880927\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-880927\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal ever to have graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-400x300.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1440x1080.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-960x720.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal to have ever graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since April, there have been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/06/03/humpback-whales-exploring-the-bay-in-unprecedented-numbers/\">record number\u003c/a> of whale sightings in San Francisco Bay—including \u003ca href=\"http://kron4.com/2016/07/11/stunning-video-close-encounter-with-whales-near-treasure-island/\">this\u003c/a> breathtaking encounter filmed by a local kayaker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Yesterday was gangbusters,” exclaims Jan Roletto, the research coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\">Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, which falls under the NOAA umbrella. On their first day out, the crew saw 85 blue and humpback whales. On the second day, I was there as the crew made 48 more whale observations. Such sightings suggest that the whales are making a strong comeback.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s a real story of recovery.’\u003ccite> Jaime Jahncke, Point Blue \u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>This July alone, the crew of the R/V Fulmar has seen more whales (around 237) than scientists recorded during the entire summer last year — about \u003ca href=\"http://accessoceans.org/uploads/Ocean_Climate_Indicators_Report_2015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">180\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greater Farallones Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a> is lush with nutrients, making it the place where whales meet and eat.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s a real story of recovery,” says Jaime Jahncke, a lead scientist at Point Blue. But what are they recovering from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lower whale abundance in 2015 was a consequence of two natural phenomena: a sprawling mass of anomalously warm water known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/08/09/possible-spoiler-for-el-nino-a-battle-of-the-blobs/\">the Blob, and El Niño\u003c/a>, a periodic shift in both ocean and atmospheric conditions. Together, they raised ocean temperatures and had mostly negative effects on marine life, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/11/23/how-warmer-waters-have-led-to-emaciated-seals-on-california-beaches/\">such as California seals\u003c/a> and sea lions. Thousands of sea lion pups were stranded or killed in February and March 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_894517\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-894517\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Unusually warm waters brought in by a combination of El Ñino and the Blob in late 2015 to early 2016 were not good for sea lion pups. These anomalously high temperatures disrupted the marine food chain, leaving the pups malnourished. This has lead to the recent high rates of sea lion pup mortality.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Unusually warm ocean conditions in late 2015 led to high rates of sea lion pup mortality. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now the oceans have cooled and the wind is gusting, a trend scientists are happy to see.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The winds are strong enough to cause upwelling. They are pushing that water to the south and offshore, and it allows the cold, nutrient-rich water to come to the surface,” explains \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/contact/staff.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Danielle Lipski\u003c/a>, research coordinator for \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, another branch of NOAA. The nutrients act like fertilizer and increase the abundance of \u003ca href=\"http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/phyto.html\">phytoplankton.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_881027\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-881027\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Tiny, but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tiny but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales. \u003ccite>( Andrea Izzotti/iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/sem/zooplankton.cfm\">Zooplankton\u003c/a> feed on the phytoplankton, which are then eaten by tiny shrimplike animals called \u003ca href=\"http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/lewis_clark01/background/midwater_realm/media/krill.html\">krill\u003c/a>. The whales gobble up the krill in a beautiful relationship where one of the smallest of lifeforms sustains the largest.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Twenty six nautical miles outside the Golden Gate, the spindly peaks of the Farallon Islands bobbing in view, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sanctuarysimon.org/regional_sections/fulmar/\">R/V Fulmar\u003c/a> research vessel has made space for me to observe how researchers carry out their commitment to keep our oceans healthy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still working on developing my sea legs, I clamber up a ladder to the top deck, and as gingerly as possible, stumble to the bow of the boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This vessel is run by a marine conservation partnership called \u003ca href=\"http://www.accessoceans.org/\">ACCESS\u003c/a>, or the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies. The crew, comprised of marine researchers from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (\u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">NOAA)\u003c/a> and the non-profit agency \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointblue.org/\">Point Blue\u003c/a>, is scanning the horizon for signs of life, which they are finding in abundance. \u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On this brilliant July afternoon, the scientists on board are deploying nets and hauling in microscopic forms of life from the ocean. They pull in tiny krill and their even tinier food source, plankton, the marine plants that form the foundation of the ocean’s food chain and shed light on the health of the vital marine habitat off the coast of Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One researcher records the number of wildlife that surround the boat, while the others gaze through binoculars and call out species names as they see them — like puffins, white-sided dolphins and \u003ca href=\"http://www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/red-necked-phalarope\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">red-necked phalaropes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_897891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-897891 size-medium\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the AV Fulmar's marine research crew.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1920x1080.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the R/V Fulmar’s marine research crew. \u003ccite>(Aurora MacRae-Crerar/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>First mate Marshall Stein offers me his front-row swivel seat and moments later, there’s a wave of excitement as one, two, three, four blue whales come into focus. Mouth agape, I stare at the largest animals the planet has ever seen as they spout water from their blowholes, the silhouettes of their majestic blue backs against the backdrop of the Farallon Islands. I am speechless. So are the marine biologists. This is extraordinary, not only for a novice like me, but also for seasoned researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_880927\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-880927\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal ever to have graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-400x300.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1440x1080.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-960x720.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal to have ever graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since April, there have been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/06/03/humpback-whales-exploring-the-bay-in-unprecedented-numbers/\">record number\u003c/a> of whale sightings in San Francisco Bay—including \u003ca href=\"http://kron4.com/2016/07/11/stunning-video-close-encounter-with-whales-near-treasure-island/\">this\u003c/a> breathtaking encounter filmed by a local kayaker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Yesterday was gangbusters,” exclaims Jan Roletto, the research coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\">Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, which falls under the NOAA umbrella. On their first day out, the crew saw 85 blue and humpback whales. On the second day, I was there as the crew made 48 more whale observations. Such sightings suggest that the whales are making a strong comeback.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s a real story of recovery.’\u003ccite> Jaime Jahncke, Point Blue \u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>This July alone, the crew of the R/V Fulmar has seen more whales (around 237) than scientists recorded during the entire summer last year — about \u003ca href=\"http://accessoceans.org/uploads/Ocean_Climate_Indicators_Report_2015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">180\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greater Farallones Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a> is lush with nutrients, making it the place where whales meet and eat.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s a real story of recovery,” says Jaime Jahncke, a lead scientist at Point Blue. But what are they recovering from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lower whale abundance in 2015 was a consequence of two natural phenomena: a sprawling mass of anomalously warm water known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/08/09/possible-spoiler-for-el-nino-a-battle-of-the-blobs/\">the Blob, and El Niño\u003c/a>, a periodic shift in both ocean and atmospheric conditions. Together, they raised ocean temperatures and had mostly negative effects on marine life, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/11/23/how-warmer-waters-have-led-to-emaciated-seals-on-california-beaches/\">such as California seals\u003c/a> and sea lions. Thousands of sea lion pups were stranded or killed in February and March 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_894517\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-894517\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Unusually warm waters brought in by a combination of El Ñino and the Blob in late 2015 to early 2016 were not good for sea lion pups. These anomalously high temperatures disrupted the marine food chain, leaving the pups malnourished. This has lead to the recent high rates of sea lion pup mortality.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Unusually warm ocean conditions in late 2015 led to high rates of sea lion pup mortality. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now the oceans have cooled and the wind is gusting, a trend scientists are happy to see.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The winds are strong enough to cause upwelling. They are pushing that water to the south and offshore, and it allows the cold, nutrient-rich water to come to the surface,” explains \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/contact/staff.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Danielle Lipski\u003c/a>, research coordinator for \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, another branch of NOAA. The nutrients act like fertilizer and increase the abundance of \u003ca href=\"http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/phyto.html\">phytoplankton.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_881027\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-881027\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Tiny, but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tiny but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales. \u003ccite>( Andrea Izzotti/iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/sem/zooplankton.cfm\">Zooplankton\u003c/a> feed on the phytoplankton, which are then eaten by tiny shrimplike animals called \u003ca href=\"http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/lewis_clark01/background/midwater_realm/media/krill.html\">krill\u003c/a>. The whales gobble up the krill in a beautiful relationship where one of the smallest of lifeforms sustains the largest.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Strong El Niño Helped Lower U.S. Heating Costs",
"headTitle": "Strong El Niño Helped Lower U.S. Heating Costs | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Was your heating bill a bit friendlier to your wallet this winter? If so, there’s a good chance you can thank El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The exceptionally strong El Niño in the Pacific has been driving \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">chaotic weather\u003c/a> across the globe for months, but it also contributed to a mild winter in the U.S., which was about 15 percent warmer than the winter of 2014-2015.\u003cbr>\n[contextly_sidebar id=”zVCqv5TKYC3HFMByoxD0YLpimFkWBXMg”]\u003cbr>\nThe milder temperatures led people to use less energy to heat their homes compared to the previous winter, a new U.S. Department of Energy \u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25952\">report\u003c/a> shows. Above-normal temperatures contributed to a 16 percent drop in demand for propane used for heating, a 45 percent drop in heating oil consumption and a 6 percent decrease in electricity consumption compared to the winter of 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating demand nationwide declined as much as 27 percent in December compared to the average of the previous 10 winters as measured in \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=about_degree_days\">heating degree days\u003c/a>, a measure of how much utility bills increase as a result of the weather, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though heating demand in January matched the 10-year average, February demand was 17 percent below normal and March was 26 percent below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Slade Johnson, an analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said it’s too early to know if such a dramatic fall in energy demand for home heating has been seen before until at least late spring when the nation’s heating season has passed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño event is still occurring, although it is expected to dissipate by late spring or early summer,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The energy used for home heating is a contributor to climate change because of its use of natural gas, oil and electricity. Home heating accounts for about 63 percent of residential natural gas consumption, for example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating oil is often used in place of natural gas and electricity in the northeast. Heating oil is a highly-polluting crude oil product that emits about the\u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11\">same amount\u003c/a> of carbon dioxide as diesel fuel — less than coal but more than gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half of all households in the U.S. heat their homes with natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel used for home heating, which emits roughly half the carbon dioxide as coal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t be possible to know the exact effect that El Niño had on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from energy use this winter until the final numbers are tallied later this year, but emissions from U.S. energy consumption were down by 2.5 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year, EIA analyst Perry Lindstrom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of that was because of the warmer heating season — especially at the end of the year,” he said. “The other emissions effect is that, as a result of the above, natural gas prices were low and natural gas pushed out coal in electricity generation.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"nprByline": "\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/bobby-magill\" target=\"_blank\">Bobby Magill\u003c/a>\u003c/br>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Central\u003c/a>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Was your heating bill a bit friendlier to your wallet this winter? If so, there’s a good chance you can thank El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The exceptionally strong El Niño in the Pacific has been driving \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">chaotic weather\u003c/a> across the globe for months, but it also contributed to a mild winter in the U.S., which was about 15 percent warmer than the winter of 2014-2015.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cbr>\nThe milder temperatures led people to use less energy to heat their homes compared to the previous winter, a new U.S. Department of Energy \u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25952\">report\u003c/a> shows. Above-normal temperatures contributed to a 16 percent drop in demand for propane used for heating, a 45 percent drop in heating oil consumption and a 6 percent decrease in electricity consumption compared to the winter of 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating demand nationwide declined as much as 27 percent in December compared to the average of the previous 10 winters as measured in \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=about_degree_days\">heating degree days\u003c/a>, a measure of how much utility bills increase as a result of the weather, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though heating demand in January matched the 10-year average, February demand was 17 percent below normal and March was 26 percent below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Slade Johnson, an analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said it’s too early to know if such a dramatic fall in energy demand for home heating has been seen before until at least late spring when the nation’s heating season has passed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño event is still occurring, although it is expected to dissipate by late spring or early summer,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The energy used for home heating is a contributor to climate change because of its use of natural gas, oil and electricity. Home heating accounts for about 63 percent of residential natural gas consumption, for example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating oil is often used in place of natural gas and electricity in the northeast. Heating oil is a highly-polluting crude oil product that emits about the\u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11\">same amount\u003c/a> of carbon dioxide as diesel fuel — less than coal but more than gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half of all households in the U.S. heat their homes with natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel used for home heating, which emits roughly half the carbon dioxide as coal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t be possible to know the exact effect that El Niño had on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from energy use this winter until the final numbers are tallied later this year, but emissions from U.S. energy consumption were down by 2.5 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year, EIA analyst Perry Lindstrom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of that was because of the warmer heating season — especially at the end of the year,” he said. “The other emissions effect is that, as a result of the above, natural gas prices were low and natural gas pushed out coal in electricity generation.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/news/series/baycurious",
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 3
},
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}
},
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"id": "bbc-world-service",
"title": "BBC World Service",
"info": "The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service",
"meta": {
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"source": "BBC World Service"
},
"link": "/radio/program/bbc-world-service",
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"rss": "https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"
}
},
"californiareport": {
"id": "californiareport",
"title": "The California Report",
"tagline": "California, day by day",
"info": "KQED’s statewide radio news program providing daily coverage of issues, trends and public policy decisions.",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-California-Report-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/californiareport",
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 8
},
"link": "/californiareport",
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}
},
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"title": "The California Report Magazine",
"tagline": "Your state, your stories",
"info": "Every week, The California Report Magazine takes you on a road trip for the ears: to visit the places and meet the people who make California unique. The in-depth storytelling podcast from the California Report.",
"airtime": "FRI 4:30pm-5pm, 6:30pm-7pm, 11pm-11:30pm",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/californiareportmagazine",
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"order": 10
},
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM3NjkwNjk1OTAz",
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},
"city-arts": {
"id": "city-arts",
"title": "City Arts & Lectures",
"info": "A one-hour radio program to hear celebrated writers, artists and thinkers address contemporary ideas and values, often discussing the creative process. Please note: tapes or transcripts are not available",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/05/cityartsandlecture-300x300.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.cityarts.net/",
"airtime": "SUN 1pm-2pm, TUE 10pm, WED 1am",
"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "City Arts & Lectures"
},
"link": "https://www.cityarts.net",
"subscribe": {
"tuneIn": "https://tunein.com/radio/City-Arts-and-Lectures-p692/",
"rss": "https://www.cityarts.net/feed/"
}
},
"closealltabs": {
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"info": "Close All Tabs breaks down how digital culture shapes our world through thoughtful insights and irreverent humor.",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/podcasts/closealltabs",
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 1
},
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"id": "code-switch-life-kit",
"title": "Code Switch / Life Kit",
"info": "\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />",
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"meta": {
"site": "radio",
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},
"link": "/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit",
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},
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"id": "commonwealth-club",
"title": "Commonwealth Club of California Podcast",
"info": "The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.",
"airtime": "THU 10pm, FRI 1am",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
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"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "Commonwealth Club of California"
},
"link": "/radio/program/commonwealth-club",
"subscribe": {
"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2",
"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw",
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},
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"id": "forum",
"title": "Forum",
"tagline": "The conversation starts here",
"info": "KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
"imageAlt": "KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal",
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"meta": {
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 9
},
"link": "/forum",
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz",
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"freakonomics-radio": {
"id": "freakonomics-radio",
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"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/freakonomicsRadio.png",
"officialWebsiteLink": "http://freakonomics.com/",
"airtime": "SUN 1am-2am, SAT 3pm-4pm",
"meta": {
"site": "radio",
"source": "WNYC"
},
"link": "/radio/program/freakonomics-radio",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/freakonomics-radio/id354668519",
"tuneIn": "https://tunein.com/podcasts/WNYC-Podcasts/Freakonomics-Radio-p272293/",
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},
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"id": "fresh-air",
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"link": "/radio/program/fresh-air",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=214089682&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory",
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"info": "A live production of NPR and WBUR Boston, in collaboration with stations across the country, Here & Now reflects the fluid world of news as it's happening in the middle of the day, with timely, in-depth news, interviews and conversation. Hosted by Robin Young, Jeremy Hobson and Tonya Mosley.",
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},
"hidden-brain": {
"id": "hidden-brain",
"title": "Hidden Brain",
"info": "Shankar Vedantam uses science and storytelling to reveal the unconscious patterns that drive human behavior, shape our choices and direct our relationships.",
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"airtime": "SUN 7pm-8pm",
"meta": {
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"source": "NPR"
},
"link": "/radio/program/hidden-brain",
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},
"how-i-built-this": {
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"title": "How I Built This with Guy Raz",
"info": "Guy Raz dives into the stories behind some of the world's best known companies. How I Built This weaves a narrative journey about innovators, entrepreneurs and idealists—and the movements they built.",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/howIBuiltThis.png",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510313/how-i-built-this",
"airtime": "SUN 7:30pm-8pm",
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"source": "npr"
},
"link": "/radio/program/how-i-built-this",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/how-i-built-this-with-guy-raz/id1150510297?mt=2",
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},
"hyphenacion": {
"id": "hyphenacion",
"title": "Hyphenación",
"tagline": "Where conversation and cultura meet",
"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Hyphenacion_FinalAssets_PodcastTile.png",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/podcasts/hyphenacion",
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"order": 15
},
"link": "/podcasts/hyphenacion",
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},
"jerrybrown": {
"id": "jerrybrown",
"title": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown",
"tagline": "Lessons from a lifetime in politics",
"info": "The Political Mind of Jerry Brown brings listeners the wisdom of the former Governor, Mayor, and presidential candidate. Scott Shafer interviewed Brown for more than 40 hours, covering the former governor's life and half-century in the political game – and Brown has some lessons he'd like to share. ",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Political-Mind-of-Jerry-Brown-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "/podcasts/jerrybrown",
"meta": {
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 18
},
"link": "/podcasts/jerrybrown",
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}
},
"latino-usa": {
"id": "latino-usa",
"title": "Latino USA",
"airtime": "MON 1am-2am, SUN 6pm-7pm",
"info": "Latino USA, the radio journal of news and culture, is the only national, English-language radio program produced from a Latino perspective.",
"imageSrc": "https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/latinoUsa.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "http://latinousa.org/",
"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "npr"
},
"link": "/radio/program/latino-usa",
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"apple": "https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=79681317&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory",
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"rss": "https://feeds.npr.org/510016/podcast.xml"
}
},
"marketplace": {
"id": "marketplace",
"title": "Marketplace",
"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 4pm-4:30pm, MON-WED 6:30pm-7pm",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Marketplace-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.marketplace.org/",
"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "American Public Media"
},
"link": "/radio/program/marketplace",
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"rss": "https://feeds.publicradio.org/public_feeds/marketplace-pm/rss/rss"
}
},
"masters-of-scale": {
"id": "masters-of-scale",
"title": "Masters of Scale",
"info": "Masters of Scale is an original podcast in which LinkedIn co-founder and Greylock Partner Reid Hoffman sets out to describe and prove theories that explain how great entrepreneurs take their companies from zero to a gazillion in ingenious fashion.",
"airtime": "Every other Wednesday June 12 through October 16 at 8pm (repeats Thursdays at 2am)",
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"officialWebsiteLink": "https://mastersofscale.com/",
"meta": {
"site": "radio",
"source": "WaitWhat"
},
"link": "/radio/program/masters-of-scale",
"subscribe": {
"apple": "http://mastersofscale.app.link/",
"rss": "https://rss.art19.com/masters-of-scale"
}
},
"mindshift": {
"id": "mindshift",
"title": "MindShift",
"tagline": "A podcast about the future of learning and how we raise our kids",
"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg",
"imageAlt": "KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn",
"officialWebsiteLink": "/mindshift/",
"meta": {
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"source": "kqed",
"order": 12
},
"link": "/podcasts/mindshift",
"subscribe": {
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"google": "https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5",
"npr": "https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast",
"stitcher": "https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share",
"spotify": "https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"
}
},
"morning-edition": {
"id": "morning-edition",
"title": "Morning Edition",
"info": "\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.",
"airtime": "MON-FRI 3am-9am",
"imageSrc": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Morning-Edition-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg",
"officialWebsiteLink": "https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/",
"meta": {
"site": "news",
"source": "npr"
},
"link": "/radio/program/morning-edition"
},
"onourwatch": {
"id": "onourwatch",
"title": "On Our Watch",
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