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"content": "\u003cp>Standing on a patch of snow near Lake Tahoe, Sean de Guzman, manager of the state’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting section, pierced the snow with a metal tube to detect how much snow was on Tuesday’s ground. He then added the number to \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">a statewide database of snow measurements\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news? He found the snowpack across the entire Sierra Nevada is just one-quarter of normal. One year ago, he stood on about five feet of snow here \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982147/california-snowpack-may-hold-record-amount-of-water-with-significant-flooding-possible\">when the snowpack was at 177% of normal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Today’s result shows that it’s really still too early to determine what kind of year we’ll have in terms of wet or dry,” de Guzman said. “Luckily, our statewide reservoirs are still well above average this time of year, thanks partly to how wet it was last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news is that meteorologists expect a winter storm to pile up more than a foot of snow on the Sierra Nevada tonight and tomorrow morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A cold front is coming in, so the storm is gonna be a little bit colder and snow elevations lower,” de Guzman said. That’ll add snow to the pack.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1742250438123225550?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite these initial measurement numbers, the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook for January, February and March still shows an increased chance of above-normal precipitation and snow, partly because this year is an El Niño year. With that climate pattern in mind, there is a possibility that storm after storm could batter the state, ultimately building up the snowpack to record levels.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, California’s preparing for both extreme conditions, either extremely dry or extremely wet conditions,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1742278337001828862?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, not all El Niño years guarantee a wet winter because they “span the gap from dry years to wet years. So by itself, El Niño’s really not a good predictor of the water year,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said a warm December led to “an absolutely abysmal snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What this means, as of today, is that the snowpack is at or below all-time record low numbers for the beginning of January,” he said. “I know that it is pretty alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said there is a possibility of a sequence of three to five storms in the near future that could help build the snowpack, but he said there may be snow drought conditions this winter in part because of warmer temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t necessarily think this is going to be a good snow year,” he said. “In fact, it might end up being a pretty bad snow year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking back to 1978, UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab’s Andrew Schwartz said snowfall in California is declining about every month and rainfall is increasing. Those warmer temperatures and decreasing snowfall could complicate how the state stores water for the rest of the year. The snowpack is considered a frozen reservoir that slowly melts into rivers, streams and reservoirs, but if too much snow comes as rain instead, it could overwhelm reservoirs and may complicate water storage for drier times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This really shows us that our snow season is getting shorter,” he said. “We’re going to have to plan for shorter periods of snowpack and the complications that may bring with our management of water resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985949\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/240102-snow-survey-dwr-fg-02-kqed/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985949\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An open field with patches of snow and bare grass.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">So far, the snow levels are lacking depth, with a number of bare spots in the meadow where the California Department of Water Resources conducted its first snow survey of the 2024 season. \u003ccite>(Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, up to an inch of rain could fall in the first storm this week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn. He expects wind gusts of up to 30 miles per hour and a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1742293541580415215?s=20\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the storm is not a slow-moving storm riding an atmospheric river, which can dump rain, creating flooding issues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just beneficial rain to help our rainfall totals for the year, but we don’t really have a big flooding threat,” he said\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flynn forecasts two storm systems Friday and Saturday but said they will likely produce even less rain than today’s storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But looking ahead over the next two weeks, that kind of trend is going to continue, where every three days or five days or so, there’s going to be another system that comes through and gives a good amount of rain,” he said. “But there’s nothing that looks like a major, major rain producer like we saw this time last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Standing on a patch of snow near Lake Tahoe, Sean de Guzman, manager of the state’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting section, pierced the snow with a metal tube to detect how much snow was on Tuesday’s ground. He then added the number to \u003ca href=\"https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action\">a statewide database of snow measurements\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The bad news? He found the snowpack across the entire Sierra Nevada is just one-quarter of normal. One year ago, he stood on about five feet of snow here \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982147/california-snowpack-may-hold-record-amount-of-water-with-significant-flooding-possible\">when the snowpack was at 177% of normal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Today’s result shows that it’s really still too early to determine what kind of year we’ll have in terms of wet or dry,” de Guzman said. “Luckily, our statewide reservoirs are still well above average this time of year, thanks partly to how wet it was last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other good news is that meteorologists expect a winter storm to pile up more than a foot of snow on the Sierra Nevada tonight and tomorrow morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A cold front is coming in, so the storm is gonna be a little bit colder and snow elevations lower,” de Guzman said. That’ll add snow to the pack.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>However, not all El Niño years guarantee a wet winter because they “span the gap from dry years to wet years. So by itself, El Niño’s really not a good predictor of the water year,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said a warm December led to “an absolutely abysmal snowpack.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What this means, as of today, is that the snowpack is at or below all-time record low numbers for the beginning of January,” he said. “I know that it is pretty alarming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said there is a possibility of a sequence of three to five storms in the near future that could help build the snowpack, but he said there may be snow drought conditions this winter in part because of warmer temperatures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t necessarily think this is going to be a good snow year,” he said. “In fact, it might end up being a pretty bad snow year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking back to 1978, UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab’s Andrew Schwartz said snowfall in California is declining about every month and rainfall is increasing. Those warmer temperatures and decreasing snowfall could complicate how the state stores water for the rest of the year. The snowpack is considered a frozen reservoir that slowly melts into rivers, streams and reservoirs, but if too much snow comes as rain instead, it could overwhelm reservoirs and may complicate water storage for drier times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This really shows us that our snow season is getting shorter,” he said. “We’re going to have to plan for shorter periods of snowpack and the complications that may bring with our management of water resources.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985949\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 2000px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/240102-snow-survey-dwr-fg-02-kqed/\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985949\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An open field with patches of snow and bare grass.\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/240102-SNOW-SURVEY-DWR-FG-02-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">So far, the snow levels are lacking depth, with a number of bare spots in the meadow where the California Department of Water Resources conducted its first snow survey of the 2024 season. \u003ccite>(Andrew Nixon/California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, up to an inch of rain could fall in the first storm this week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn. He expects wind gusts of up to 30 miles per hour and a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>However, the storm is not a slow-moving storm riding an atmospheric river, which can dump rain, creating flooding issues.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s just beneficial rain to help our rainfall totals for the year, but we don’t really have a big flooding threat,” he said\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flynn forecasts two storm systems Friday and Saturday but said they will likely produce even less rain than today’s storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But looking ahead over the next two weeks, that kind of trend is going to continue, where every three days or five days or so, there’s going to be another system that comes through and gives a good amount of rain,” he said. “But there’s nothing that looks like a major, major rain producer like we saw this time last year.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "El Niño’s Return: What It Means for California’s Winter Weather",
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"content": "\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=science_1982822 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg']Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[aside postID=news_11936674 hero='https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/10/2023/03/RS63686_002_KQED_AtmosphericRiver_03142023-qut-1020x680.jpg']Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "From snow forecasts to wet storms, how could El Niño impact California's weather in winter 2023? Climate experts weigh in on the predictability of El Niño.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Climate scientists and weather forecasters suspect \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982079/this-winters-floods-may-be-only-a-taste-of-the-megafloods-to-come-climate-scientists-warn\">this winter could be as wet or wetter\u003c/a> than last year’s torrential downpours. But just how wet will this winter become?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The answer isn’t quite as simple as forecasters pumping various inputs into computer models that then spit out what we can definitively expect. The Bay Area’s weather patterns are created by global patterns in the atmosphere, everything from interactions with the ocean, landscape and sun.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of those natural factors is\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982822/6-common-misconceptions-about-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-california-weather\"> the climate pattern known as El Niño\u003c/a>, which has returned after a four-year hiatus, ushering in the possibility of yet another stormy winter. \u003ca href=\"https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html\">This weather system\u003c/a> has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">75%–85% chance of becoming a strong system\u003c/a> from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What is El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño — the opposite of La Niña, which recently ended a cycle — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit. That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast of the U.S., often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Climate forecasters predict a range of strengths for the current El Niño — everything from a moderate to a super El Niño — which can often be characterized by intense warmer downpours.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is potential for a lot of strong storms with coastal issues, and we just do not have extensive flood systems on the coast of California,” said Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood management and dam safety with the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With winter just a few months away, climate and weather experts suggest preparing our homes and lives for the worst — major flooding. Keep reading for what to know about 2023’s El Niño, from its impact on California’s snow forecast to the timing of weather predictions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Jump straight to:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#superelnino\">What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#elninosnowforecast\">Does a wet winter always mean snow in the forecast?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#climatechangeelnino\">Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"#homeflooding\">How can I prepare my home for potential storms?\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003ch2>Is it possible to predict what winter 2023 will be like in California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Kind of. It’s not possible to predict the day-to-day weather this far in advance. However, meteorologists are able to forecast possible climate changes that might happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Right now, it is still too far out and our seasonal forecasting capabilities are very limited,” said Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a 30% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño event, which could rival the ferocity of the 1997–98 years, according to NOAA’s latest El Niño Advisory, which saw flooding rains across the state. The scientists note that while a stronger El Niño can increase the likelihood of weather anomalies, it does “not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s because it’s usually only in the worst El Niño years that the entire state gets soaked — Southern California, on the other hand, has a slight tendency toward wetter conditions even in moderate El Niño years. (More on this below.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said the relationship between El Niño and Bay Area impacts is not always clear and that the best thing to do as a California resident is to prepare for the worst outcome.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Climate models are showing this ambivalent pattern for California this winter,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for a timeline, researchers think that peak impacts — \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1935067/rivers-in-the-sky-what-you-need-to-know-about-atmospheric-river-storms\">big atmospheric rivers that drop a ton of rain\u003c/a> — could arrive in the New Year through early spring.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The closer we are to that winter rainy season forecast, obviously the better the prediction will be,” said John Chiang, a UC Berkeley climate scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"superelnino\">\u003c/a>What are the chances of a super El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While most predictions of the intensity of El Niño range from moderate to strong this year, \u003ca href=\"https://news.ucar.edu/132912/ncar-experimental-prediction-system-calls-super-el-nino-winter\">one forecasting group is predicting what they classify as a super El Niño\u003c/a> on par with 1997–98. That winter saw a great deluge across the state, as rivers swelled, mudslides destroyed homes and roads filled with debris. At the end of it, 17 people had died and the state suffered nearly $1 billion in damage.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s only been seen three times previously in the historical record,” said Stephen Yeager, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “We are looking at the potential of a major season-long event that could impact people and their livelihoods.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For Yeager’s model, he and his team analyzed historical conditions from 1970 to 2019. They took atmospheric conditions into account — warmth, humidity and wind— as well as the state of oceans, ice and land. They then compared that historical data with computer model forecasts, which unveiled the potential for a super El Niño this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Our system is predicting a warmer event than many other [models],” Yeager said. “But it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1984766\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1984766\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg\" alt=\"A bright yellow snowplow drives on a snowy country road surrounded by pine trees.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/10/RS61930_GettyImages-1244621487-qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A snowplow is seen as snow blankets Route 237 in Stateline, Nevada, on Nov. 8, 2022.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Does a strong El Niño prediction mean a wet winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>No, not all El Niños are the same. And even a strong system doesn’t mean California will get walloped by atmospheric rivers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When looking at the historical record, Null said El Niño years have almost equally had above-average and below-average rainfall. For instance, the years of 2015–16 produced a very strong El Niño event but were relatively dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Trying to say this is going to be a strong or very strong event doesn’t equate directly to ‘it’s going to be a wet year in California,’” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He adds that an alphabet soup of other natural phenomena factor into the strength of El Niño and its potential effects, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"elninosnowforecast\">\u003c/a>Does a wet winter always bring snow to California?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A wet winter does not always mean \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11937204/lake-tahoe-weather-forecast-road-conditions-snow-chains\">ample snow\u003c/a>. Chiang, with UC Berkeley, said that El Niño tends to have warmer weather patterns, which can actually decrease snow amounts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That does play a role — but if you are high enough and cold enough, it will snow rather than rain,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chiang adds that the effects of El Niño are not ubiquitous across the world, country or even one state. The climate system can mean wetter weather patterns in California and the Southwest and warmer weather in the Northwest.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>At what point in the year do we begin to get firmer predictions for winter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The only time we can really know what winter will be like is the moment that it ends, said Null, tongue in cheek.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year, the seasonal forecast for California’s winter was an even split for a wet or dry winter — and a few months later, torrential rain pounded the state for months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Around mid-November, Yeager said the forecast will come into better clarity, when updates to weather predictions come out. Around that time, forecasters will outline the potential weather possibilities for the next few months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But if last winter’s storms taught him anything, said Yeager, predictions can change rapidly, meaning storms could become more intense or back off in severity. Because of the varying predictions — and his super El Niño forecast — he thinks all Californians should prepare for a wet winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If I were living in San Francisco and considering repairing my roof, I might do it based on this information,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"climatechangeelnino\">\u003c/a>Is climate change intensifying El Niño?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The impact of human-caused climate change on El Niño conditions is hard to pinpoint. Scientists hypothesize it is having an effect, making the impacts from it and La Niña more extreme.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Basically, the wets will become even wetter in California. But the science is still not settled on that, said Yeager.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With ocean temperatures soaring and record warmth this past summer, scientists like Null see a correlation with climate change — but say that it needs to be further proven and studied.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Every weather event, whether during El Niño or La Niña, has some climate change DNA,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1932772\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 3623px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1932772\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg\" alt=\"A large wave crashes onto seaside houses.\" width=\"3623\" height=\"2606\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186.jpg 3623w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-160x115.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-800x575.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-768x552.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1020x734.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1200x863.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1920x1381.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-1180x849.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-960x691.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-240x173.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-375x270.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/GettyImages-504730186-520x374.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3623px) 100vw, 3623px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">El Niño-generated storm waves crash onto seaside houses at Mondos Beach, Ventura County, on Jan. 12, 2016. \u003ccite>(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003ca id=\"homeflooding\">\u003c/a>How should we prepare for a wet year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>First up, understand just how much you — and your home — could be affected by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more\">a winter storm of the magnitude we saw earlier this year\u003c/a>. Previous storms in the Bay Area have knocked down trees, flooded roads and cut power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses, and contributed to several deaths.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Flooding could mean you have to evacuate your home, or live without crucial services for an extended period. Besides flashlights, experts recommend having\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/floods#prepare\"> an emergency supply kit\u003c/a> ready in both your home and car, should you need to evacuate. Previous storms in the Bay Area have also resulted in \u003ca href=\"https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outagecenter/\">power outages that affected over 100,000 PG&E customers\u003c/a>. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#poweroutages\">Read more about preparing your home for a potential power outage.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s Chiang suggests California property owners should be especially prepared for potential torrential downpours, and consider preemptive measures like fixing leaky roofs, clearing drains and cleaning gutters. Last winter, parts of Chiang’s own Bay Area home flooded and his roof leaked. This year, he prepared by fixing drainage issues around his house and replacing the roof on his home. \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">Read more about preparing your home for potential flooding.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you are a homeowner, keep in mind that most home insurance plans do not cover damage caused by flooding. However, \u003ca href=\"https://floodsmart.gov/\">you can buy an additional policy with the National Flood Insurance Program\u003c/a> through your existing insurance provider. It’s important to mention that if you decide to buy a plan now, there is a 30-day wait period for the benefits to begin.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If your home experienced flooding during previous storms this year — or in storms from years past — officials recommend having sandbags, plastic sheeting and other flood control materials ready. Counties, public utilities and even community organizations across the Bay Area will often distribute \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#sandbags\">free sandbags during the rainy season\u003c/a> or ahead of a big forecast storm.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the atmospheric river storms that hit Northern California over the 2022–2023 winter, officials around the Bay Area doubled down on efforts to keep waterways and storm drains clear to reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas. Both \u003ca href=\"https://www.oaklandca.gov/services/adopt-a-drain\">Oakland\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://sfpuc.org/learning/how-you-can-help/adopt-drain-sf\">San Francisco \u003c/a>have\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/13923319/you-can-adopt-a-drain-in-san-francisco-with-naming-rights-included\"> programs where residents can “adopt” a storm drain\u003c/a> in their community and help remove leaves and other debris.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA also has created a tool that tracks which parts of a city are under flood risk — and to what extent. You can \u003ca href=\"https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home\">input your address in the FEMA Flood Map Service Center\u003c/a>. Once the map tool locates your address, you can select the “Dynamic Map” option to see a more detailed map that may have certain neighborhoods or blocks color coded to represent flood risk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Carlos Cabrera-Lomelí, Emma Silvers, Carly Severn, Daisy Nguyen and Erin Baldassari contributed \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11936674/how-to-prepare-for-this-weeks-atmospheric-river-storm-sandbags-emergency-kits-and-more#start\">flood preparation reporting\u003c/a> to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cp>After a four-year hiatus, El Niño is widely expected to make a grand reentrance this summer, ushering in the possibility of yet another wet, stormy winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like it’s full steam ahead,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a live YouTube interview last week, in which he placed the likelihood of a strong El Niño event at greater than 50% — even as projections still vary widely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A strong event does have the potential for strong impacts on California,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-el-nino\">climate phenomenon\u003c/a> — the opposite of \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-la-nina\">La Niña\u003c/a> — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982830\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\" alt=\"A vertical bar chart showing El Niño events since 1950.\" width=\"2182\" height=\"1400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png 2182w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-800x513.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1020x654.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-768x493.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1536x986.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-2048x1314.png 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1920x1232.png 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2182px) 100vw, 2182px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast, often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles, said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a wet winter is not at all guaranteed, he said, noting that only one out of about six current models predicts a strong El Niño as this year progresses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have been sort of charmed into believing that all El Niños mean storms,” Monteverdi said. “The historical record does not support a sure bet on that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Misconceptions about this mysterious weather pattern abound. Below are six of the most common ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 1: El Niño comes to California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Every time Jan Null reads a headline saying El Niño is coming to the West Coast, he cringes. The local forecaster, who founded \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/\">Golden Gate Weather Service\u003c/a>, said the headlines aren’t factual because El Niño actually occurs “about 3,000 miles away from California. It does not move en masse toward the California coast.” It can, however, greatly affect the weather in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 2: Every El Niño event and its effects are identical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For the more than seven decades that El Niños have been tracked, their strength and impact have varied significantly, with many having little impact in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The general notion is that El Niño brings wetter winters in California, although the relationship is somewhat fragile,” said UC Berkeley climate scientist John Chiang. “It’s really only the strong El Niños that affect rainfall over Northern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And a slew of other oceanic and atmospheric variables can enhance or diffuse the effects of El Niño, noted meteorologist Null, saying, “I’ve often referred to it as the alphabet soup of all these other climate things going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 3: El Niño is a storm\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is not a storm in and of itself,” Monteverdi said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, he explains, it is a phenomenon that can prime the atmosphere to push more robust storms toward the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños do “not spawn storms” and “do not directly create storms over California or anywhere else,” added Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 4: El Niños always result in catastrophic flooding\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Significant flooding can just as likely occur in a non-El Niño period like the one Californians experienced this past winter (which was technically in a La Niña year).[aside label=\"related coverage\" tag=\"el-nino\"]Since 1950, \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html\">there have been 26 El Niño years\u003c/a>, and that doesn’t include some of the costliest flood years, Null said. That means it’s very difficult to accurately predict just how wet a winter we’re in for this year, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s slightly skewed toward the wetter than normal, but it’s not something where I’d reach into my wallet and put money on the table betting on it,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 5: El Niños cause elevated ocean temperatures along California’s coastal waters\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño is \u003cem>not\u003c/em> responsible for any warming of ocean temperatures along the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not true that when we have El Niño, we automatically have warm water immediately west of San Francisco,” said Monteverdi. “It refers to an oceanographic phenomenon in the tropical Pacific well away from us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water along California is primarily influenced by the California Current, which runs from north to south from the Gulf of Alaska down along the West Coast, where cold water comes to the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no real transport mechanism for the warm water at the equator 3,000 miles away to get to the California coast and that sort of gets lost in the discussion,” said Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 6: Climate change is having a clear impact on the frequency and severity of El Niños\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While climate change from the burning of fossil fuels has indisputably accelerated weather extremes in California — fueling significantly wetter and dryer conditions — climate experts still don’t know precisely how it has affected the nature of El Niño, in part because records about it in California only go back to about 1950.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have this conversation 20 years from now, we may start seeing more of these big events in that same time frame — then it’s easier to attribute it [to climate change],” Null said. “Right now, they’re still separating the signal from the noise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, future storms fueled by El Niños could be a whole lot wetter than they used to be because of climate change, which has resulted in an increasingly warmer atmosphere that can hold more water and, in turn, dump more on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global ocean warming “will change our weather patterns,” said Chiang, of UC Berkeley. “It’ll change the impact of El Niño. So, whether we see it now or in the decades ahead, that’s still an open debate.”\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>After a four-year hiatus, El Niño is widely expected to make a grand reentrance this summer, ushering in the possibility of yet another wet, stormy winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like it’s full steam ahead,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a live YouTube interview last week, in which he placed the likelihood of a strong El Niño event at greater than 50% — even as projections still vary widely.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A strong event does have the potential for strong impacts on California,” said Swain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The El Niño \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-el-nino\">climate phenomenon\u003c/a> — the opposite of \u003ca href=\"https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/what-is-la-nina\">La Niña\u003c/a> — generally occurs every three to five years when ocean waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific warm by at least a half-degree Fahrenheit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1982830\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png\" alt=\"A vertical bar chart showing El Niño events since 1950.\" width=\"2182\" height=\"1400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1.png 2182w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-800x513.png 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1020x654.png 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-160x103.png 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-768x493.png 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1536x986.png 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-2048x1314.png 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/el-nino-1-1920x1232.png 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2182px) 100vw, 2182px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That, in turn, can reposition the jet stream and funnel storms toward the West Coast, often resulting in increased rainfall across thousands of miles, said John Monteverdi, emeritus professor of meteorology at San Francisco State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But a wet winter is not at all guaranteed, he said, noting that only one out of about six current models predicts a strong El Niño as this year progresses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People have been sort of charmed into believing that all El Niños mean storms,” Monteverdi said. “The historical record does not support a sure bet on that.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Misconceptions about this mysterious weather pattern abound. Below are six of the most common ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 1: El Niño comes to California\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Every time Jan Null reads a headline saying El Niño is coming to the West Coast, he cringes. The local forecaster, who founded \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/\">Golden Gate Weather Service\u003c/a>, said the headlines aren’t factual because El Niño actually occurs “about 3,000 miles away from California. It does not move en masse toward the California coast.” It can, however, greatly affect the weather in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 2: Every El Niño event and its effects are identical\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For the more than seven decades that El Niños have been tracked, their strength and impact have varied significantly, with many having little impact in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The general notion is that El Niño brings wetter winters in California, although the relationship is somewhat fragile,” said UC Berkeley climate scientist John Chiang. “It’s really only the strong El Niños that affect rainfall over Northern California.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And a slew of other oceanic and atmospheric variables can enhance or diffuse the effects of El Niño, noted meteorologist Null, saying, “I’ve often referred to it as the alphabet soup of all these other climate things going on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 3: El Niño is a storm\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>“El Niño is not a storm in and of itself,” Monteverdi said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, he explains, it is a phenomenon that can prime the atmosphere to push more robust storms toward the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niños do “not spawn storms” and “do not directly create storms over California or anywhere else,” added Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 4: El Niños always result in catastrophic flooding\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Significant flooding can just as likely occur in a non-El Niño period like the one Californians experienced this past winter (which was technically in a La Niña year).\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Since 1950, \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/ca_enso2021/ca_elnino.html\">there have been 26 El Niño years\u003c/a>, and that doesn’t include some of the costliest flood years, Null said. That means it’s very difficult to accurately predict just how wet a winter we’re in for this year, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s slightly skewed toward the wetter than normal, but it’s not something where I’d reach into my wallet and put money on the table betting on it,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 5: El Niños cause elevated ocean temperatures along California’s coastal waters\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>El Niño is \u003cem>not\u003c/em> responsible for any warming of ocean temperatures along the California coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not true that when we have El Niño, we automatically have warm water immediately west of San Francisco,” said Monteverdi. “It refers to an oceanographic phenomenon in the tropical Pacific well away from us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The water along California is primarily influenced by the California Current, which runs from north to south from the Gulf of Alaska down along the West Coast, where cold water comes to the surface.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no real transport mechanism for the warm water at the equator 3,000 miles away to get to the California coast and that sort of gets lost in the discussion,” said Null.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Misconception 6: Climate change is having a clear impact on the frequency and severity of El Niños\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>While climate change from the burning of fossil fuels has indisputably accelerated weather extremes in California — fueling significantly wetter and dryer conditions — climate experts still don’t know precisely how it has affected the nature of El Niño, in part because records about it in California only go back to about 1950.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we have this conversation 20 years from now, we may start seeing more of these big events in that same time frame — then it’s easier to attribute it [to climate change],” Null said. “Right now, they’re still separating the signal from the noise.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, future storms fueled by El Niños could be a whole lot wetter than they used to be because of climate change, which has resulted in an increasingly warmer atmosphere that can hold more water and, in turn, dump more on land.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global ocean warming “will change our weather patterns,” said Chiang, of UC Berkeley. “It’ll change the impact of El Niño. So, whether we see it now or in the decades ahead, that’s still an open debate.”\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Kelp, Sea Otters and Urchins. Who's Eating Who in Monterey Bay",
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"headTitle": "Kelp, Sea Otters and Urchins. Who’s Eating Who in Monterey Bay | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cp class=\"p1\">Marine scientists have observed a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949757/massive-california-kelp-decline-linked-to-ocean-heat-wave-voracious-sea-urchins\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">massive decline\u003c/span>\u003c/a> of California’s underwater kelp forests in recent years. Studies have linked the die-off to a host of factors including an ocean heat wave, a deadly sea star virus, and an influx of voracious kelp-eating sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Kelp’s long flat leaves and bulbous stems provide habitat for marine mammals, fish and invertebrates in tidal regions along California’s coast. In many regions where kelp once flourished, the ocean floor is now carpeted with spiny purple sea urchins and there’s no kelp to be found. Scientists call these zones the urchin barrens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">A new study out of UC Santa Cruz reveals more about the disappearance of California’s kelp forests, finding the leafy green seaweed is faring better in places where sea otters, a natural urchin predator, are thriving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973221\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973221\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the kelp forest ecosystem in Northern California has been replaced by urchin barrens dominated by purple sea urchins. \u003ccite>(Katie Sowul/CDFW)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Several studies have documented the collapse of the kelp ecosystem in California. The story goes something like this: A giant, warm-water “blob” first observed by scientists off the Washington coast in 2013 combined with an El Nino weather event from the south resulted in a prolonged marine heatwave in California from 2014-16. Kelp thrives in colder tidal waters, which have the nutrients it needs to survive. Faced with warmer water, the kelp essentially starved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The historically hardy plant, which can grow up to 2 feet per day, could have bounced back from the heat wave, but for a disease that that nearly eradicated sunflower stars along the West Coast. This large, 24-limbed starfish feeds on purple sea urchins; without stars around, urchin populations swelled and changed their typical hunting behavior. Instead of merely grazing on fallen kelp leaves, the urchins began gobbling up the kelp’s stalks and seed pods as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In Northern California, satellite images have revealed a roughly 95% decline in kelp forest canopy as a result of these events. But in Central California waters, kelp has fared somewhat better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The Central Coast saw a similar urchin outbreak in 2014, says Joshua Smith, a Ph.D. candidate and kelp forest researcher at UC Santa Cruz. “But what was different here was that instead of having this widespread kelp deforestation, we actually had this patchy mosaic of kelp forests interspersed with these patches of sea urchin barrens\u003ci>,” \u003c/i>he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973227\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973227\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A healthy forest of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Smith says this unique phenomenon gave his group an opportunity to look closer at the factors driving the kelp decline and its potential for recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/content/118/11/e2012493118\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">study\u003c/span>\u003c/a>, published this week in \u003cspan class=\"s2\">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003c/span>, links the presence of sea otters in Monterey Bay to patches of lush, healthy kelp forest.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Smith called Monterey Bay “sea otter country,” pointing out more of the species inhabited the area than any other in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">\u003ci>“\u003c/i>This is a sea otter country,” Smith said. “We have the highest abundance of sea otters here in Monterey Bay than anywhere else in the state\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Sea otters, like sunflower stars, are a natural predator of sea urchins. \u003ci> \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">“The key finding of what this actually means is that otters are so important for this ecosystem because they are maintaining these remnant patches of kelp forests,” Smith said, “And those patches of kelp are the ultimate source populations to help replenish those barren patches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">The study shows that the sea otter population in Monterey Bay grew in the wake of the urchin boom, with an increased survival rate for pups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">While scientists can’t say for sure, the lack of sea otters and other urchin predators north of the San Francisco Bay may help explain why Northern California’s kelp forests have suffered more than on other parts of the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973226\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973226\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins feeding on kelp. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Sea otters haven’t been spotted on the North Coast since the 1800s, says Meredith McPherson, a UC Santa Cruz marine scientist who recently published \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">a separate study\u003c/span>\u003c/a> on Northern California’s kelp decline. “From what we observed in the satellite data from the last 35 years, the kelp had been doing well without sea otters as long as we still had sunflower stars. Once they were gone, there were no urchin predators left in the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Without natural predators, McPherson says, scuba divers are helping maintain what’s left of the region’s kelp forests by plucking out interloping urchins. But while ocean temperatures and nutrient levels have normalized some since the 2014-16 heat waves, she says kelp haven’t seen any significant rebound.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“There seems to be some evidence that some patches of kelp have reemerged in certain areas, but it’s nothing to the extent that we would expect from the historical data,” she said. “The concentrations of urchins are still really high and [are] creating the strong grazing pressure on any kind of recovery.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">McPherson says while the urchin barrens persist, a full-scale kelp recovery is unlikely. Even without kelp to eat, urchins have shown resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“That’s where some people have used the term zombie urchin,” Smith said. “These urchins are remarkable in that they can persist in this starved state in the sea urchin barrens for years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Smith’s study revealed that otters largely ignore urchins in the barrens, as they lack the nutritional value of those that have kelp to forage on. Scientists say another environmental event will likely be needed to reduce urchin populations and tip the scales in favor of kelp.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“A number of things could take out the urchins.” Smith said. “It could be urchin disease or it could be a bottom-scouring swell that physically wipes sea urchins off the reef.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">In the meantime, otters may be key to kelp’s chance for a long-term recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp class=\"p1\">Marine scientists have observed a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949757/massive-california-kelp-decline-linked-to-ocean-heat-wave-voracious-sea-urchins\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">massive decline\u003c/span>\u003c/a> of California’s underwater kelp forests in recent years. Studies have linked the die-off to a host of factors including an ocean heat wave, a deadly sea star virus, and an influx of voracious kelp-eating sea urchins.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Kelp’s long flat leaves and bulbous stems provide habitat for marine mammals, fish and invertebrates in tidal regions along California’s coast. In many regions where kelp once flourished, the ocean floor is now carpeted with spiny purple sea urchins and there’s no kelp to be found. Scientists call these zones the urchin barrens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">A new study out of UC Santa Cruz reveals more about the disappearance of California’s kelp forests, finding the leafy green seaweed is faring better in places where sea otters, a natural urchin predator, are thriving.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973221\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973221\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/urchin-barren-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the kelp forest ecosystem in Northern California has been replaced by urchin barrens dominated by purple sea urchins. \u003ccite>(Katie Sowul/CDFW)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Several studies have documented the collapse of the kelp ecosystem in California. The story goes something like this: A giant, warm-water “blob” first observed by scientists off the Washington coast in 2013 combined with an El Nino weather event from the south resulted in a prolonged marine heatwave in California from 2014-16. Kelp thrives in colder tidal waters, which have the nutrients it needs to survive. Faced with warmer water, the kelp essentially starved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The historically hardy plant, which can grow up to 2 feet per day, could have bounced back from the heat wave, but for a disease that that nearly eradicated sunflower stars along the West Coast. This large, 24-limbed starfish feeds on purple sea urchins; without stars around, urchin populations swelled and changed their typical hunting behavior. Instead of merely grazing on fallen kelp leaves, the urchins began gobbling up the kelp’s stalks and seed pods as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">In Northern California, satellite images have revealed a roughly 95% decline in kelp forest canopy as a result of these events. But in Central California waters, kelp has fared somewhat better.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The Central Coast saw a similar urchin outbreak in 2014, says Joshua Smith, a Ph.D. candidate and kelp forest researcher at UC Santa Cruz. “But what was different here was that instead of having this widespread kelp deforestation, we actually had this patchy mosaic of kelp forests interspersed with these patches of sea urchin barrens\u003ci>,” \u003c/i>he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973227\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973227\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Healthy-Kelp-2-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A healthy forest of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">Smith says this unique phenomenon gave his group an opportunity to look closer at the factors driving the kelp decline and its potential for recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p1\">The \u003ca href=\"https://www.pnas.org/content/118/11/e2012493118\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">study\u003c/span>\u003c/a>, published this week in \u003cspan class=\"s2\">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003c/span>, links the presence of sea otters in Monterey Bay to patches of lush, healthy kelp forest.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Smith called Monterey Bay “sea otter country,” pointing out more of the species inhabited the area than any other in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">\u003ci>“\u003c/i>This is a sea otter country,” Smith said. “We have the highest abundance of sea otters here in Monterey Bay than anywhere else in the state\u003ci>.”\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">Sea otters, like sunflower stars, are a natural predator of sea urchins. \u003ci> \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">“The key finding of what this actually means is that otters are so important for this ecosystem because they are maintaining these remnant patches of kelp forests,” Smith said, “And those patches of kelp are the ultimate source populations to help replenish those barren patches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">The study shows that the sea otter population in Monterey Bay grew in the wake of the urchin boom, with an increased survival rate for pups.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p3\">While scientists can’t say for sure, the lack of sea otters and other urchin predators north of the San Francisco Bay may help explain why Northern California’s kelp forests have suffered more than on other parts of the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1973226\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1973226\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2021/03/Urchin-on-Kelp-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins feeding on kelp. \u003ccite>(Michael Langhans)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Sea otters haven’t been spotted on the North Coast since the 1800s, says Meredith McPherson, a UC Santa Cruz marine scientist who recently published \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-01827-6\">\u003cspan class=\"s1\">a separate study\u003c/span>\u003c/a> on Northern California’s kelp decline. “From what we observed in the satellite data from the last 35 years, the kelp had been doing well without sea otters as long as we still had sunflower stars. Once they were gone, there were no urchin predators left in the system.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Without natural predators, McPherson says, scuba divers are helping maintain what’s left of the region’s kelp forests by plucking out interloping urchins. But while ocean temperatures and nutrient levels have normalized some since the 2014-16 heat waves, she says kelp haven’t seen any significant rebound.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“There seems to be some evidence that some patches of kelp have reemerged in certain areas, but it’s nothing to the extent that we would expect from the historical data,” she said. “The concentrations of urchins are still really high and [are] creating the strong grazing pressure on any kind of recovery.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">McPherson says while the urchin barrens persist, a full-scale kelp recovery is unlikely. Even without kelp to eat, urchins have shown resilience.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“That’s where some people have used the term zombie urchin,” Smith said. “These urchins are remarkable in that they can persist in this starved state in the sea urchin barrens for years.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">Smith’s study revealed that otters largely ignore urchins in the barrens, as they lack the nutritional value of those that have kelp to forage on. Scientists say another environmental event will likely be needed to reduce urchin populations and tip the scales in favor of kelp.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">“A number of things could take out the urchins.” Smith said. “It could be urchin disease or it could be a bottom-scouring swell that physically wipes sea urchins off the reef.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p4\">In the meantime, otters may be key to kelp’s chance for a long-term recovery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "Why You Shouldn’t Get Your Hopes up About an El Niño This Winter",
"headTitle": "Why You Shouldn’t Get Your Hopes up About an El Niño This Winter | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>An El Niño is forecast for the winter ahead, and we all know what that means. Or do we?[contextly_sidebar id=”v01DQ6sHcL6Y8AAzxIVYHh4sXp64rj2P”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño – that cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean – has long been associated with wet winters across much of the West. Which is always welcome news across the chronically water-short region. But in reality, whether El Niño actually delivers greater-than-normal precipitation is strictly a toss-up, says Jan Null, owner of \u003ca href=\"https://ggweather.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Golden Gate Weather Services\u003c/a>, a consultancy based in Saratoga, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center tells us, in its \u003ca href=\"http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">most recent forecast\u003c/a> of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span>), that there is as much as a 70 percent chance of El Niño conditions forming during the winter ahead. And it’s likely to be a “weak” El Niño. But what does that mean? Elementally, it means the equatorial Pacific is expected to be warmer than normal, and this may alter weather events around the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it doesn’t mean you should get your hopes up for a wet winter. Null has taken it upon himself to try to bring a dose of reality to the situation, via an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso2016/us_elnino.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">exhaustive breakdown\u003c/a> of precipitation results from past El Niño events. In an interview with Water Deeply, he explains why our expectations about this weather phenomenon are often wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: What does an El Niño prediction mean for precipitation in California and elsewhere in the West?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jan Null: With any El Niño, and especially weak events, there is no strong correlation with either above- or below-normal precipitation in California. For example, in the very important Sacramento Basin, of the 10 weak El Niño events since 1950, five have been above normal and five below normal. And the range of these solutions is from 43 percent of normal in 1976–77 to 135 percent of normal in 1977–78.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, rainfall in the California portion of the Colorado ranges from 30 percent of normal in 2006–07 to 214 percent in 2004–05 – both weak El Niños.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Why is forecasting El Niño so difficult?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: The accuracy for seasonal forecasts is not nearly as absolute as our weather forecasts in the short term. So with forecasting El Niño, you’re going to run into all the same issues you have with any seasonal forecast. Also, we’re finding out more and more that \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events are not happening in a vacuum. It’s not the only thing that’s going on. You also have the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation. I call it an alphabet soup of different things we have going on in the oceans and atmosphere.[contextly_sidebar id=”OjbQz2QiEAo6yhwJeN0DQKaAZQE3BVcq”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, of these, the strongest single events are \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events, which I think is one of the reasons they get so much attention. But they don’t happen in that vacuum. So sometimes these other things make the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events stronger, or they might subtract from the impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So not only do we have to forecast what the ocean temperatures are going to be along this fairly narrow swathe of the equatorial Pacific. You really have to consider what’s going on in all these other places – looking at pressure patterns in the Arctic or what’s going on in the North Pacific. It’s a complex puzzle. If you forecast one piece out of place, all the other ones aren’t going to fit right together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then we also have to discuss the fact that you have climate change \u003cspan class=\"caps\">DNA\u003c/span> in everything that’s going on. The atmosphere and the oceans are warmer, so that’s going to add into the complexity of what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Much of the West is grappling with long-term water shortages. How should we manage our expectations around El Niño and avoid any ‘hype’?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: I don’t think it necessarily is El Niño hype. There is always the hope that the next winter is going to be wet. People fixate on the idea that “This is an El Niño storm.” Well, you also have big storms in years that are not El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Historically, the way we get our “normal” precipitation is typically by having a lot of years that are a little bit less than normal. And that’s really what the drought in 2011–15 was. So that means you have a deficit over those four years. So to make up that deficit, you not only have to have a normal year. You almost have to have a year that would be twice as wet as normal. But something we have learned is that we can recover without making up all the deficit. And I think we saw that with the water supply after what happened in 2016–17, which was a wet year.[contextly_sidebar id=”9g2Bx8SJCT2SYEdwrQtMNln84K4oOvGl”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s really important that water managers, the media and the public \u003ca class=\"preview-link\" href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">get out of the old mindset\u003c/a> from 1982–83 and 1997–98 that El Niño means a wet winter for California. I think the attention is appropriate. You just have to put it in context.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve often used, over the years, the analogy of a baseball team. You may have this one player who’s a superstar who helps you get more wins than any other player. But on any given day, somebody else might have a hot day and be the one who’s going to be the star. El Niño is not the only player on the team.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2018/10/11/why-you-shouldnt-get-your-hopes-up-about-an-el-nio-this-winter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "It’s become almost common currency that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean mean wet winters in the West. But history shows that’s not necessarily so, partly because many other weather phenomena also play a role in precipitation.",
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"title": "Why You Shouldn’t Get Your Hopes up About an El Niño This Winter | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>An El Niño is forecast for the winter ahead, and we all know what that means. Or do we?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño – that cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean – has long been associated with wet winters across much of the West. Which is always welcome news across the chronically water-short region. But in reality, whether El Niño actually delivers greater-than-normal precipitation is strictly a toss-up, says Jan Null, owner of \u003ca href=\"https://ggweather.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Golden Gate Weather Services\u003c/a>, a consultancy based in Saratoga, California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center tells us, in its \u003ca href=\"http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">most recent forecast\u003c/a> of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span>), that there is as much as a 70 percent chance of El Niño conditions forming during the winter ahead. And it’s likely to be a “weak” El Niño. But what does that mean? Elementally, it means the equatorial Pacific is expected to be warmer than normal, and this may alter weather events around the globe.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it doesn’t mean you should get your hopes up for a wet winter. Null has taken it upon himself to try to bring a dose of reality to the situation, via an \u003ca href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso2016/us_elnino.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">exhaustive breakdown\u003c/a> of precipitation results from past El Niño events. In an interview with Water Deeply, he explains why our expectations about this weather phenomenon are often wrong.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: What does an El Niño prediction mean for precipitation in California and elsewhere in the West?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jan Null: With any El Niño, and especially weak events, there is no strong correlation with either above- or below-normal precipitation in California. For example, in the very important Sacramento Basin, of the 10 weak El Niño events since 1950, five have been above normal and five below normal. And the range of these solutions is from 43 percent of normal in 1976–77 to 135 percent of normal in 1977–78.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, rainfall in the California portion of the Colorado ranges from 30 percent of normal in 2006–07 to 214 percent in 2004–05 – both weak El Niños.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Why is forecasting El Niño so difficult?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: The accuracy for seasonal forecasts is not nearly as absolute as our weather forecasts in the short term. So with forecasting El Niño, you’re going to run into all the same issues you have with any seasonal forecast. Also, we’re finding out more and more that \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events are not happening in a vacuum. It’s not the only thing that’s going on. You also have the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation. I call it an alphabet soup of different things we have going on in the oceans and atmosphere.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, of these, the strongest single events are \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events, which I think is one of the reasons they get so much attention. But they don’t happen in that vacuum. So sometimes these other things make the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">ENSO\u003c/span> events stronger, or they might subtract from the impacts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So not only do we have to forecast what the ocean temperatures are going to be along this fairly narrow swathe of the equatorial Pacific. You really have to consider what’s going on in all these other places – looking at pressure patterns in the Arctic or what’s going on in the North Pacific. It’s a complex puzzle. If you forecast one piece out of place, all the other ones aren’t going to fit right together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then we also have to discuss the fact that you have climate change \u003cspan class=\"caps\">DNA\u003c/span> in everything that’s going on. The atmosphere and the oceans are warmer, so that’s going to add into the complexity of what’s going on.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Water Deeply: Much of the West is grappling with long-term water shortages. How should we manage our expectations around El Niño and avoid any ‘hype’?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Null: I don’t think it necessarily is El Niño hype. There is always the hope that the next winter is going to be wet. People fixate on the idea that “This is an El Niño storm.” Well, you also have big storms in years that are not El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Historically, the way we get our “normal” precipitation is typically by having a lot of years that are a little bit less than normal. And that’s really what the drought in 2011–15 was. So that means you have a deficit over those four years. So to make up that deficit, you not only have to have a normal year. You almost have to have a year that would be twice as wet as normal. But something we have learned is that we can recover without making up all the deficit. And I think we saw that with the water supply after what happened in 2016–17, which was a wet year.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s really important that water managers, the media and the public \u003ca class=\"preview-link\" href=\"https://www.ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">get out of the old mindset\u003c/a> from 1982–83 and 1997–98 that El Niño means a wet winter for California. I think the attention is appropriate. You just have to put it in context.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve often used, over the years, the analogy of a baseball team. You may have this one player who’s a superstar who helps you get more wins than any other player. But on any given day, somebody else might have a hot day and be the one who’s going to be the star. El Niño is not the only player on the team.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2018/10/11/why-you-shouldnt-get-your-hopes-up-about-an-el-nio-this-winter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/a>\u003ci>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"title": "A Sea Urchin Army Is Mowing Down California's Kelp Forests -- But Why?",
"headTitle": "A Sea Urchin Army Is Mowing Down California’s Kelp Forests — But Why? | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Kelp forests are the marine mirror images to the towering redwoods onshore, the scaffolding that supports the image of the classic northern California coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But these oceanic forests are currently under siege from a potent mix of climate anomalies, disease, and predation that have led to declines in kelp forests not seen in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In their place, vast “urchin barrens” of bare rock picked clean by roving grazers. These sunken equivalents of forest clear-cuts gut the complex relationships that sustain a healthy ecosystem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rise of the Urchins\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weakened by rising ocean temperatures and aggressive storms, kelp forests were already disadvantaged when researchers began to notice urchin populations increasing in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927686\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1927686 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins are experiencing populations surges, leading to overgrazing of giant kelp. \u003ccite>(KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen urchins come through and mow down kelp,” says Tristin McHugh, north coast regional manager for Reef Check, a group of citizen science divers who conduct long-term monitoring studies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, for example, there was virtually minimal kelp,” she says. “The barrens were barren — just urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”WEKh98dtZPvhgISltBlFjiZHxmaGztiL”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McHugh attributes this increase to elevated recruitment during years in which sea urchin larvae settled out of the plankton in high densities and survived the tumultuous early years of adolescence. Urchins have become so numerous that they have since spawned several citizen science projects aimed at curtailing their numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Some Heroes Wear Furry Capes\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Traditionally, California’s iconic sea otter has stepped in to keep urchin populations in check. Otters feed on sea urchins, which in turn keeps them from overgrazing on kelp. Without otters, the implication is that we would cease to have kelp forests at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what happens when otters forget just what is on the menu?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the same way that you can eat many things but might prefer to eat pizza, otters are known to be generalists in their diets. But individuals have specific preferences which are passed from mother to pup.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927356\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1927356\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-160x51.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-768x247.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1020x328.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1200x386.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1920x617.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1180x379.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-960x309.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-240x77.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-375x121.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-520x167.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A raft of otters rests in Elkhorn Slough, Moss Landing, CA \u003ccite>(Heather Barrett)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>James Watanabe is a lecturer at Hopkins Marine Station, and he was the first to suggest that otters may have developed a “cultural memory loss.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From the big pulse of recruitment in the ’70’s, up until now, when the urchins started showing up again, there were three generations of otters with some sea urchins present,” he says, “but not enough for any otter to focus on as the main part of the diet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job. They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.’\u003ccite>Joe Tomoleoni, USGS\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s possible that the behavior died out if everyone who remembered how to do it has died.” adds Aimee Dunlap, who studies animal cognition at the University of Missouri. “When they reintroduced the California Condor,” she recalls, “they had to haul out carcasses, because they’d had a gap in the parents teaching the young how to be a Condor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Historical Precedent?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe points to the example of \u003cem>Kelletia\u003c/em>, a large predatory snail that moved north into kelp forests during the 1977-1978 El Niño, as a historical example of a time when otters exhibited similar behaviors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a big, meaty snail, and it has a big shell, and it got to the point where you could put your hand down anywhere in the kelp beds and one would be within a meter of your hand. But the otters weren’t going for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927360\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 580px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927360\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg 580w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Kellet’s Whelk in a Monterey kelp forest. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Eventually, he began to notice changes beneath the waves. “Within a period of about six months, the abundance dropped and there were a bunch of busted shells all over the place. It’s the damage that only an otter could typically do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Can We Really Blame the Otters?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Joe Tomoleoni, an otter biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, bristles at the idea of blaming the urchin boom solely on otters, arguing that it ignores the inherent complexity of kelp forests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[emailsignup newslettername='science' align='right'] “It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job,” he says. “They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomoleoni stresses that urchins have always been a major prey item for sea otters in California, and in fact, recent observations show more urchins being consumed now than in the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Perfect Storm\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite their importance, otter indifference would not be enough to explain what’s happening here. Michael Jacox, a Research Oceanographer with NOAA, points to a series of weather anomalies that have affected the Bay Area over the last five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927620\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 226px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927620\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"226\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg 226w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp-160x275.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 226px) 100vw, 226px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mature kelp plant in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It started with a persistent high pressure system which formed over the Pacific Ocean in late 2013. While winters in California are generally characterized as wet and mild, Jacox recalls how “the ridge deflected storms, and we weren’t getting storms or mixing and there was a heat buildup in the surface of the ocean.” This heat buildup, coupled with the extremely strong El Niño of 2015, ultimately impacted the entire US west coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it had serious implications for marine ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kelp in particular was hit especially hard by these warm conditions. “The story for kelp might be similar to how it is for phytoplankton,” Jacox suggests, “They need nutrients in the water, and they prefer cooler conditions. In phytoplankton, we saw really low productivity as a direct result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe suspects it may also have helped drive the urchin boom. To him, the warm water weakened kelp, but failed to kill it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kelp wasn’t very happy here during the warm water buildup,” he recalls, “but we didn’t see wholesale loss of the canopy like we’re seeing now with overgrazing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Hope\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While many researchers spoke to the unprecedented magnitude and persistence of these climate events, they were equally quick to point to signs that the kelp beds may already be recovering. Or at the very least, that they are optimistic the damage can be reversed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite his theory, Watanabe always stressed that it was only a matter of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those otters are so smart,” he says with a smile. “Once they figure out they can eat those urchins, I’m sure the otters will knock them back real quick and the kelp will recover.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, up on the north coast, we’ve seen cold water showing up,” adds McHugh. “We’ve seen high trade winds and we’ve seen upwelling…maybe our ecosystem is going to have a chance to recover.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Kelp is a keystone in the ocean ecosystem. It's not entirely clear why the urchins have taken over, but there's optimism that the kelp devastation is temporary.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Kelp forests are the marine mirror images to the towering redwoods onshore, the scaffolding that supports the image of the classic northern California coastline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But these oceanic forests are currently under siege from a potent mix of climate anomalies, disease, and predation that have led to declines in kelp forests not seen in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In their place, vast “urchin barrens” of bare rock picked clean by roving grazers. These sunken equivalents of forest clear-cuts gut the complex relationships that sustain a healthy ecosystem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rise of the Urchins\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Weakened by rising ocean temperatures and aggressive storms, kelp forests were already disadvantaged when researchers began to notice urchin populations increasing in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927686\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1927686 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-960x540.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-240x135.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-375x211.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/urchins-and-kelp-520x293.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple sea urchins are experiencing populations surges, leading to overgrazing of giant kelp. \u003ccite>(KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’ve seen urchins come through and mow down kelp,” says Tristin McHugh, north coast regional manager for Reef Check, a group of citizen science divers who conduct long-term monitoring studies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, for example, there was virtually minimal kelp,” she says. “The barrens were barren — just urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McHugh attributes this increase to elevated recruitment during years in which sea urchin larvae settled out of the plankton in high densities and survived the tumultuous early years of adolescence. Urchins have become so numerous that they have since spawned several citizen science projects aimed at curtailing their numbers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Some Heroes Wear Furry Capes\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Traditionally, California’s iconic sea otter has stepped in to keep urchin populations in check. Otters feed on sea urchins, which in turn keeps them from overgrazing on kelp. Without otters, the implication is that we would cease to have kelp forests at all.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So what happens when otters forget just what is on the menu?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the same way that you can eat many things but might prefer to eat pizza, otters are known to be generalists in their diets. But individuals have specific preferences which are passed from mother to pup.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927356\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1927356\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-800x257.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-160x51.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-768x247.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1020x328.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1200x386.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1920x617.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-1180x379.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-960x309.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-240x77.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-375x121.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/Otter_Group-520x167.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A raft of otters rests in Elkhorn Slough, Moss Landing, CA \u003ccite>(Heather Barrett)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>James Watanabe is a lecturer at Hopkins Marine Station, and he was the first to suggest that otters may have developed a “cultural memory loss.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“From the big pulse of recruitment in the ’70’s, up until now, when the urchins started showing up again, there were three generations of otters with some sea urchins present,” he says, “but not enough for any otter to focus on as the main part of the diet.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job. They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.’\u003ccite>Joe Tomoleoni, USGS\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s possible that the behavior died out if everyone who remembered how to do it has died.” adds Aimee Dunlap, who studies animal cognition at the University of Missouri. “When they reintroduced the California Condor,” she recalls, “they had to haul out carcasses, because they’d had a gap in the parents teaching the young how to be a Condor.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Historical Precedent?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe points to the example of \u003cem>Kelletia\u003c/em>, a large predatory snail that moved north into kelp forests during the 1977-1978 El Niño, as a historical example of a time when otters exhibited similar behaviors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a big, meaty snail, and it has a big shell, and it got to the point where you could put your hand down anywhere in the kelp beds and one would be within a meter of your hand. But the otters weren’t going for them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927360\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 580px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927360\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580.jpg 580w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelletia_kel580-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A Kellet’s Whelk in a Monterey kelp forest. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Eventually, he began to notice changes beneath the waves. “Within a period of about six months, the abundance dropped and there were a bunch of busted shells all over the place. It’s the damage that only an otter could typically do.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Can We Really Blame the Otters?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Joe Tomoleoni, an otter biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, bristles at the idea of blaming the urchin boom solely on otters, arguing that it ignores the inherent complexity of kelp forests.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> “It’s not that the sea otters aren’t doing their job,” he says. “They’re doing it very well, there’s just much more to the story than otters and urchins.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomoleoni stresses that urchins have always been a major prey item for sea otters in California, and in fact, recent observations show more urchins being consumed now than in the past.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A Perfect Storm\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite their importance, otter indifference would not be enough to explain what’s happening here. Michael Jacox, a Research Oceanographer with NOAA, points to a series of weather anomalies that have affected the Bay Area over the last five years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1927620\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 226px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1927620\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"226\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp.jpg 226w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/07/kelp-160x275.jpg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 226px) 100vw, 226px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mature kelp plant in Monterey Bay. \u003ccite>(James Watanabe)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It started with a persistent high pressure system which formed over the Pacific Ocean in late 2013. While winters in California are generally characterized as wet and mild, Jacox recalls how “the ridge deflected storms, and we weren’t getting storms or mixing and there was a heat buildup in the surface of the ocean.” This heat buildup, coupled with the extremely strong El Niño of 2015, ultimately impacted the entire US west coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And it had serious implications for marine ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kelp in particular was hit especially hard by these warm conditions. “The story for kelp might be similar to how it is for phytoplankton,” Jacox suggests, “They need nutrients in the water, and they prefer cooler conditions. In phytoplankton, we saw really low productivity as a direct result.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Watanabe suspects it may also have helped drive the urchin boom. To him, the warm water weakened kelp, but failed to kill it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The kelp wasn’t very happy here during the warm water buildup,” he recalls, “but we didn’t see wholesale loss of the canopy like we’re seeing now with overgrazing.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A New Hope\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While many researchers spoke to the unprecedented magnitude and persistence of these climate events, they were equally quick to point to signs that the kelp beds may already be recovering. Or at the very least, that they are optimistic the damage can be reversed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite his theory, Watanabe always stressed that it was only a matter of time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Those otters are so smart,” he says with a smile. “Once they figure out they can eat those urchins, I’m sure the otters will knock them back real quick and the kelp will recover.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year, up on the north coast, we’ve seen cold water showing up,” adds McHugh. “We’ve seen high trade winds and we’ve seen upwelling…maybe our ecosystem is going to have a chance to recover.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "California's Water: Seven Important Things That Happened in 2016",
"headTitle": "California’s Water: Seven Important Things That Happened in 2016 | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"start\">THIS YEAR HAS \u003c/span>been a big one for water. California is still mired in drought, although less of the state is suffering than in previous years and each winter rainstorm brings a fresh bit of optimism.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A large reserve of \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/27/new-groundwater-found-deep-under-central-valley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groundwater was found\u003c/a> deep under the drought-stricken Central Valley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/06/how-california-is-learning-to-love-drinking-recycled-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recycled water\u003c/a> continues to gain in popularity, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/19/how-saving-salmon-could-help-ease-the-next-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flooding to help fish and farmers\u003c/a> is panning out and 2016 will likely wrap up as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/science/2016-hottest-year-on-record.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hottest year on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below are seven other significant milestones that impacted California water and will help shape the year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>1. Disappointing El Nino\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The much-heralded El Nino that many hoped would lift California out of drought didn’t live up to expectations. And what precipitation did come was concentrated much more heavily in the northern parts of the state, leaving Southern California high and dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By mid-April, while snowpack was at 100 percent of average in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada, precipitation in \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-no-rain-20160415-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles was at only 58 percent\u003c/a>. And the snowpack reading for the southern Sierra Nevada on April 1 was \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES.04\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">65 percent of \u003c/a>average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To make matters worse, despite normal wet weather in the north, warmer temperatures meant that by May 1 the snowpack statewide dropped to only 55 percent of average – a marked improvement over the historically low snowpack of 2015, but nothing close to what the state needed to make a big impact on the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>2. Conservation Mandate Ends\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After nearly a year of Californians rising to the challenge of a 25 percent statewide conservation mandate, the policy was disbanded in May. The State Water Resources Control Board changed course and instead decided to let water agencies set their own conservation standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new rules center on a ‘self-certification’ process in which individual water districts will forecast their demand and supply for the next three years, assuming continued below-average precipitation,” the \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/20/california-lifts-statewide-conservation-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee reported\u003c/a>. “Districts would be required to reduce water use by an amount equal to their projected shortfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the decision, most water agencies \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/14/what-falling-water-conservation-numbers-mean-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set conservation goals\u003c/a> at or near zero, and conservation statewide fell.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>3. Diminishing Lake Mead\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In June, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lake Mead hit its lowest point\u003c/a> ever since the reservoir on the Colorado River was built 80 years ago. Around 19 million Californians, nearly half the state, get some portion of their drinking water from the Colorado River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bureau of Reclamation believes \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2a37e6597b6e4d1eaf591731a539de78/feds-see-shortage-2018-lake-mead-water-arizona-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the lake’s shortage\u003c/a> will be so low by 2018 it will not be able to make its deliveries to lower-basin states Nevada, Arizona and California. The three states have been working for months on a compromise, should the shortage warrant it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, in December the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reviewjournal.com/local/nevada/problems-california-complicate-negotiations-boost-sinking-lake-mead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Las Vegas Journal-Review\u003c/a> reported a new hitch – trouble in California is holding things up. “Before they agree to store more water in Lake Mead, California’s largest river users want to know how much water they might have to forgo to protect endangered fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta or keep the Salton Sea from drying up, triggering an ecological disaster,” the Journal-Review reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>4. Toxic Algae Outbreaks\u003c/h2>\n\u003cdiv id=\"attachment_108201\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The summer was marked by several outbreaks of toxic algae blooms in waters across the state, fueled by low water flows, warm temperatures and high levels of nutrients. Although toxic algae blooms happened in both Northern and Southern California, of particular concern was the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the Delta, it’s important to us because we have a large population base that uses this water, and protecting the water quality is of huge ecological importance,” \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/ssr/staff/lehman.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peggy Lehman\u003c/a>, a staff environmental scientist at the California Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/08/08/algae-outbreaks-fed-by-drought-climate-change-pollution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told Water Deeply\u003c/a>. “With the State Water Project drawing from the Delta, we have to take a look at the importance of anything like this because it could be quite detrimental to human health and water quality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch2>5. Tree Mortality on the Rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Recent aerial surveys indicate that the number of dead trees, thanks to drought and beetles, has risen to 102 million, with more than half dying in the last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The scale of die-off in California is unprecedented in our modern history,” Randy Moore, forester for the region of the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">U.S.\u003c/span> Forest Service that includes California, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-dead-trees-20161118-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles Times\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While statewide surveys have been conducted in the Sierra Nevada, smaller-scale research in coastal areas has also found that usually resilient oak trees are also dying from drought as tree roots can no longer reach falling aquifers.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>6. Federal Water Infrastructure Bill Signed\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In December, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/12/20/what-the-new-federal-water-bill-means-for-the-delta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">President Obama signed\u003c/a> the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, a $12 billion measure that provides aid for Flint, Michigan, and projects to fund dams and provide flood protection across the country. Stuffed into the legislation were controversial provisions that will affect how much water is pumped out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Doyle, \u003ca href=\"http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article119710733.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting for McClatchy\u003c/a>, called it “the biggest federal reset of California water use in a generation, setting the stage for easier dam-building, more recycling and potentially happier Central Valley farmers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law has received cheers from San Joaquin Valley farmers and jeers from the environmental community and Delta-area residents worried about overpumping from the environmentally sensitive Bay Delta. The law calls for pumps “to maximize water supplies for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project,” and may run into conflict with provisions in the Endangered Species Act that limit pumping at certain times to protect endangered fish species.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>7. Delta Tunnels Inch Forward\u003c/h2>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_863594\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-863594\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"The 30-mile tunnels would be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Plans for the 30-mile tunnels slated to be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta inched forward in 2016. \u003ccite>(California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With just over a week to go before the end of 2016, California took another step forward on California WaterFix, the plan to build twin tunnels in the Delta, by releasing more than 90,000 pages of a finalized \u003ca href=\"http://baydeltaconservationplan.com/FinalEIREIS.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">environmental impact report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erin Mellon, a spokeswoman for the state’s Natural Resources Agency, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/delta/article122434249.html#storylink=cpy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee\u003c/a> that the state hopes “to have federal permits approved next year and construction under way as early as 2018.” The report comes after “hundreds of public meetings and thousands of comments,” according to the Natural Resources Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“After years of scientific study and analysis, we have found the best solution for protecting both the Delta’s ecosystem and a vital water supply for California,” said Mark Cowin, director of the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Restore the Delta, one of the most outspoken critics of the plan, released a statement saying that the document “is \u003ca href=\"http://restorethedelta.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06887fa70084fef8e939fef63&id=e35cf8c02d&e=3659e00ed8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">not a green light\u003c/a> for the Delta Tunnels but rather should be understood as the submission of homework by sponsoring agencies … to be evaluated by state and federal regulators who will determine if proposal can meet environmental and water quality standards … A feat no previous version of the proposal has achieved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"fin\">The project still faces other hurdles, including hearings before the State Water Resources Control Board on water rights impacts and a crucial agreement by water districts on how to finance the project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "The drought continues to impact California economically, politically and ecologically. Here’s a look at the most significant recent developments that will shape the year ahead.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"start\">THIS YEAR HAS \u003c/span>been a big one for water. California is still mired in drought, although less of the state is suffering than in previous years and each winter rainstorm brings a fresh bit of optimism.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A large reserve of \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/27/new-groundwater-found-deep-under-central-valley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groundwater was found\u003c/a> deep under the drought-stricken Central Valley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/06/how-california-is-learning-to-love-drinking-recycled-water\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recycled water\u003c/a> continues to gain in popularity, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/19/how-saving-salmon-could-help-ease-the-next-drought\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flooding to help fish and farmers\u003c/a> is panning out and 2016 will likely wrap up as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/science/2016-hottest-year-on-record.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hottest year on record\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below are seven other significant milestones that impacted California water and will help shape the year ahead.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>1. Disappointing El Nino\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The much-heralded El Nino that many hoped would lift California out of drought didn’t live up to expectations. And what precipitation did come was concentrated much more heavily in the northern parts of the state, leaving Southern California high and dry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By mid-April, while snowpack was at 100 percent of average in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada, precipitation in \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-no-rain-20160415-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles was at only 58 percent\u003c/a>. And the snowpack reading for the southern Sierra Nevada on April 1 was \u003ca href=\"http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES.04\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">65 percent of \u003c/a>average.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To make matters worse, despite normal wet weather in the north, warmer temperatures meant that by May 1 the snowpack statewide dropped to only 55 percent of average – a marked improvement over the historically low snowpack of 2015, but nothing close to what the state needed to make a big impact on the drought.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>2. Conservation Mandate Ends\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After nearly a year of Californians rising to the challenge of a 25 percent statewide conservation mandate, the policy was disbanded in May. The State Water Resources Control Board changed course and instead decided to let water agencies set their own conservation standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The new rules center on a ‘self-certification’ process in which individual water districts will forecast their demand and supply for the next three years, assuming continued below-average precipitation,” the \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/05/20/california-lifts-statewide-conservation-rules\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee reported\u003c/a>. “Districts would be required to reduce water use by an amount equal to their projected shortfall.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Following the decision, most water agencies \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/10/14/what-falling-water-conservation-numbers-mean-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set conservation goals\u003c/a> at or near zero, and conservation statewide fell.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>3. Diminishing Lake Mead\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In June, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lake Mead hit its lowest point\u003c/a> ever since the reservoir on the Colorado River was built 80 years ago. Around 19 million Californians, nearly half the state, get some portion of their drinking water from the Colorado River.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bureau of Reclamation believes \u003ca href=\"http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2a37e6597b6e4d1eaf591731a539de78/feds-see-shortage-2018-lake-mead-water-arizona-nevada\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the lake’s shortage\u003c/a> will be so low by 2018 it will not be able to make its deliveries to lower-basin states Nevada, Arizona and California. The three states have been working for months on a compromise, should the shortage warrant it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, in December the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reviewjournal.com/local/nevada/problems-california-complicate-negotiations-boost-sinking-lake-mead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Las Vegas Journal-Review\u003c/a> reported a new hitch – trouble in California is holding things up. “Before they agree to store more water in Lake Mead, California’s largest river users want to know how much water they might have to forgo to protect endangered fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta or keep the Salton Sea from drying up, triggering an ecological disaster,” the Journal-Review reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>4. Toxic Algae Outbreaks\u003c/h2>\n\u003cdiv id=\"attachment_108201\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>The summer was marked by several outbreaks of toxic algae blooms in waters across the state, fueled by low water flows, warm temperatures and high levels of nutrients. Although toxic algae blooms happened in both Northern and Southern California, of particular concern was the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the Delta, it’s important to us because we have a large population base that uses this water, and protecting the water quality is of huge ecological importance,” \u003ca href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/ssr/staff/lehman.cfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Peggy Lehman\u003c/a>, a staff environmental scientist at the California Department of Water Resources, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/08/08/algae-outbreaks-fed-by-drought-climate-change-pollution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told Water Deeply\u003c/a>. “With the State Water Project drawing from the Delta, we have to take a look at the importance of anything like this because it could be quite detrimental to human health and water quality.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada.\u003c/aside>\n\u003ch2>5. Tree Mortality on the Rise\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the most visible signs of California’s drought has been patches of red amid the typically green hillsides of California’s conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Recent aerial surveys indicate that the number of dead trees, thanks to drought and beetles, has risen to 102 million, with more than half dying in the last year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The scale of die-off in California is unprecedented in our modern history,” Randy Moore, forester for the region of the \u003cspan class=\"caps\">U.S.\u003c/span> Forest Service that includes California, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-dead-trees-20161118-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Los Angeles Times\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While statewide surveys have been conducted in the Sierra Nevada, smaller-scale research in coastal areas has also found that usually resilient oak trees are also dying from drought as tree roots can no longer reach falling aquifers.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>6. Federal Water Infrastructure Bill Signed\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>In December, \u003ca href=\"https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/12/20/what-the-new-federal-water-bill-means-for-the-delta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">President Obama signed\u003c/a> the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act, a $12 billion measure that provides aid for Flint, Michigan, and projects to fund dams and provide flood protection across the country. Stuffed into the legislation were controversial provisions that will affect how much water is pumped out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Michael Doyle, \u003ca href=\"http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article119710733.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting for McClatchy\u003c/a>, called it “the biggest federal reset of California water use in a generation, setting the stage for easier dam-building, more recycling and potentially happier Central Valley farmers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new law has received cheers from San Joaquin Valley farmers and jeers from the environmental community and Delta-area residents worried about overpumping from the environmentally sensitive Bay Delta. The law calls for pumps “to maximize water supplies for the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project,” and may run into conflict with provisions in the Endangered Species Act that limit pumping at certain times to protect endangered fish species.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>7. Delta Tunnels Inch Forward\u003c/h2>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_863594\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-863594\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"The 30-mile tunnels would be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/PJH_Delta_Farming-web-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Plans for the 30-mile tunnels slated to be built 150 feet under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta inched forward in 2016. \u003ccite>(California Department of Water Resources)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With just over a week to go before the end of 2016, California took another step forward on California WaterFix, the plan to build twin tunnels in the Delta, by releasing more than 90,000 pages of a finalized \u003ca href=\"http://baydeltaconservationplan.com/FinalEIREIS.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">environmental impact report\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Erin Mellon, a spokeswoman for the state’s Natural Resources Agency, told the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/delta/article122434249.html#storylink=cpy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sacramento Bee\u003c/a> that the state hopes “to have federal permits approved next year and construction under way as early as 2018.” The report comes after “hundreds of public meetings and thousands of comments,” according to the Natural Resources Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“After years of scientific study and analysis, we have found the best solution for protecting both the Delta’s ecosystem and a vital water supply for California,” said Mark Cowin, director of the California Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Restore the Delta, one of the most outspoken critics of the plan, released a statement saying that the document “is \u003ca href=\"http://restorethedelta.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06887fa70084fef8e939fef63&id=e35cf8c02d&e=3659e00ed8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">not a green light\u003c/a> for the Delta Tunnels but rather should be understood as the submission of homework by sponsoring agencies … to be evaluated by state and federal regulators who will determine if proposal can meet environmental and water quality standards … A feat no previous version of the proposal has achieved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"fin\">The project still faces other hurdles, including hearings before the State Water Resources Control Board on water rights impacts and a crucial agreement by water districts on how to finance the project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article originally appeared on \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">Water Deeply\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and you can find it \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"https://mail.kqed.org/owa/redir.aspx?C=9e4bb0e1a7d74f24ba4684ef2533053d&URL=https%3a%2f%2fwww.newsdeeply.com%2fwater%2farticles%2f2016%2f07%2f07%2fnine-experts-to-watch-on-california-water-policy\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">here\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">. For important news about the California drought, you can \u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003ca href=\"http://waterdeeply.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=8b78e9a34ff7443ec1e8c62c6&id=2947becb78\">\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">sign up\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/a>\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\"> to the Water Deeply email list.\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Blue Whale Recovery Signals Improving Ocean Conditions",
"headTitle": "Blue Whale Recovery Signals Improving Ocean Conditions | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Twenty six nautical miles outside the Golden Gate, the spindly peaks of the Farallon Islands bobbing in view, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sanctuarysimon.org/regional_sections/fulmar/\">R/V Fulmar\u003c/a> research vessel has made space for me to observe how researchers carry out their commitment to keep our oceans healthy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still working on developing my sea legs, I clamber up a ladder to the top deck, and as gingerly as possible, stumble to the bow of the boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This vessel is run by a marine conservation partnership called \u003ca href=\"http://www.accessoceans.org/\">ACCESS\u003c/a>, or the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies. The crew, comprised of marine researchers from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (\u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">NOAA)\u003c/a> and the non-profit agency \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointblue.org/\">Point Blue\u003c/a>, is scanning the horizon for signs of life, which they are finding in abundance. [contextly_sidebar id=”bwAQS8zN4wV2Q3mMQXirOa6vGPpNfj18″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On this brilliant July afternoon, the scientists on board are deploying nets and hauling in microscopic forms of life from the ocean. They pull in tiny krill and their even tinier food source, plankton, the marine plants that form the foundation of the ocean’s food chain and shed light on the health of the vital marine habitat off the coast of Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One researcher records the number of wildlife that surround the boat, while the others gaze through binoculars and call out species names as they see them — like puffins, white-sided dolphins and \u003ca href=\"http://www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/red-necked-phalarope\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">red-necked phalaropes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_897891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-897891 size-medium\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the AV Fulmar's marine research crew.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1920x1080.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the R/V Fulmar’s marine research crew. \u003ccite>(Aurora MacRae-Crerar/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>First mate Marshall Stein offers me his front-row swivel seat and moments later, there’s a wave of excitement as one, two, three, four blue whales come into focus. Mouth agape, I stare at the largest animals the planet has ever seen as they spout water from their blowholes, the silhouettes of their majestic blue backs against the backdrop of the Farallon Islands. I am speechless. So are the marine biologists. This is extraordinary, not only for a novice like me, but also for seasoned researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_880927\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-880927\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal ever to have graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-400x300.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1440x1080.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-960x720.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal to have ever graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since April, there have been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/06/03/humpback-whales-exploring-the-bay-in-unprecedented-numbers/\">record number\u003c/a> of whale sightings in San Francisco Bay—including \u003ca href=\"http://kron4.com/2016/07/11/stunning-video-close-encounter-with-whales-near-treasure-island/\">this\u003c/a> breathtaking encounter filmed by a local kayaker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Yesterday was gangbusters,” exclaims Jan Roletto, the research coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\">Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, which falls under the NOAA umbrella. On their first day out, the crew saw 85 blue and humpback whales. On the second day, I was there as the crew made 48 more whale observations. Such sightings suggest that the whales are making a strong comeback.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s a real story of recovery.’\u003ccite> Jaime Jahncke, Point Blue \u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>This July alone, the crew of the R/V Fulmar has seen more whales (around 237) than scientists recorded during the entire summer last year — about \u003ca href=\"http://accessoceans.org/uploads/Ocean_Climate_Indicators_Report_2015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">180\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greater Farallones Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a> is lush with nutrients, making it the place where whales meet and eat.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s a real story of recovery,” says Jaime Jahncke, a lead scientist at Point Blue. But what are they recovering from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lower whale abundance in 2015 was a consequence of two natural phenomena: a sprawling mass of anomalously warm water known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/08/09/possible-spoiler-for-el-nino-a-battle-of-the-blobs/\">the Blob, and El Niño\u003c/a>, a periodic shift in both ocean and atmospheric conditions. Together, they raised ocean temperatures and had mostly negative effects on marine life, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/11/23/how-warmer-waters-have-led-to-emaciated-seals-on-california-beaches/\">such as California seals\u003c/a> and sea lions. Thousands of sea lion pups were stranded or killed in February and March 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_894517\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-894517\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Unusually warm waters brought in by a combination of El Ñino and the Blob in late 2015 to early 2016 were not good for sea lion pups. These anomalously high temperatures disrupted the marine food chain, leaving the pups malnourished. This has lead to the recent high rates of sea lion pup mortality.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Unusually warm ocean conditions in late 2015 led to high rates of sea lion pup mortality. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now the oceans have cooled and the wind is gusting, a trend scientists are happy to see.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The winds are strong enough to cause upwelling. They are pushing that water to the south and offshore, and it allows the cold, nutrient-rich water to come to the surface,” explains \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/contact/staff.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Danielle Lipski\u003c/a>, research coordinator for \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, another branch of NOAA. The nutrients act like fertilizer and increase the abundance of \u003ca href=\"http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/phyto.html\">phytoplankton.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_881027\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-881027\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Tiny, but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tiny but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales. \u003ccite>( Andrea Izzotti/iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/sem/zooplankton.cfm\">Zooplankton\u003c/a> feed on the phytoplankton, which are then eaten by tiny shrimplike animals called \u003ca href=\"http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/lewis_clark01/background/midwater_realm/media/krill.html\">krill\u003c/a>. The whales gobble up the krill in a beautiful relationship where one of the smallest of lifeforms sustains the largest.\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "On a research voyage to the Farallon Islands, scientists encounter far more whales than expected. Here's what's driving the recovery.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Twenty six nautical miles outside the Golden Gate, the spindly peaks of the Farallon Islands bobbing in view, the \u003ca href=\"http://www.sanctuarysimon.org/regional_sections/fulmar/\">R/V Fulmar\u003c/a> research vessel has made space for me to observe how researchers carry out their commitment to keep our oceans healthy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still working on developing my sea legs, I clamber up a ladder to the top deck, and as gingerly as possible, stumble to the bow of the boat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This vessel is run by a marine conservation partnership called \u003ca href=\"http://www.accessoceans.org/\">ACCESS\u003c/a>, or the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies. The crew, comprised of marine researchers from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (\u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">NOAA)\u003c/a> and the non-profit agency \u003ca href=\"http://www.pointblue.org/\">Point Blue\u003c/a>, is scanning the horizon for signs of life, which they are finding in abundance. \u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On this brilliant July afternoon, the scientists on board are deploying nets and hauling in microscopic forms of life from the ocean. They pull in tiny krill and their even tinier food source, plankton, the marine plants that form the foundation of the ocean’s food chain and shed light on the health of the vital marine habitat off the coast of Northern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One researcher records the number of wildlife that surround the boat, while the others gaze through binoculars and call out species names as they see them — like puffins, white-sided dolphins and \u003ca href=\"http://www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/red-necked-phalarope\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">red-necked phalaropes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_897891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-897891 size-medium\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the AV Fulmar's marine research crew.\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1920x1080.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/ACCESS-Research-Cruise-Pix-157-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taylor Nairn, of the Greater Farallones Association, records wildlife sightings along an observational transect as a member of the R/V Fulmar’s marine research crew. \u003ccite>(Aurora MacRae-Crerar/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>First mate Marshall Stein offers me his front-row swivel seat and moments later, there’s a wave of excitement as one, two, three, four blue whales come into focus. Mouth agape, I stare at the largest animals the planet has ever seen as they spout water from their blowholes, the silhouettes of their majestic blue backs against the backdrop of the Farallon Islands. I am speechless. So are the marine biologists. This is extraordinary, not only for a novice like me, but also for seasoned researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_880927\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-880927\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal ever to have graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-400x300.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1440x1080.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/iStock_33627068_XXLARGE-960x720.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Blue whales have been on Earth for over 53 million years. The largest animal to have ever graced our planet, they are massive, majestic and endangered, but making a comeback on the California coast. They can grow to be over 100 feet long and can weigh over 200 tons. They have a lifespan of up to 90 years. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since April, there have been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/06/03/humpback-whales-exploring-the-bay-in-unprecedented-numbers/\">record number\u003c/a> of whale sightings in San Francisco Bay—including \u003ca href=\"http://kron4.com/2016/07/11/stunning-video-close-encounter-with-whales-near-treasure-island/\">this\u003c/a> breathtaking encounter filmed by a local kayaker.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Yesterday was gangbusters,” exclaims Jan Roletto, the research coordinator for the \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\">Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, which falls under the NOAA umbrella. On their first day out, the crew saw 85 blue and humpback whales. On the second day, I was there as the crew made 48 more whale observations. Such sightings suggest that the whales are making a strong comeback.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘It’s a real story of recovery.’\u003ccite> Jaime Jahncke, Point Blue \u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>This July alone, the crew of the R/V Fulmar has seen more whales (around 237) than scientists recorded during the entire summer last year — about \u003ca href=\"http://accessoceans.org/uploads/Ocean_Climate_Indicators_Report_2015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">180\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://farallones.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Greater Farallones Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a> is lush with nutrients, making it the place where whales meet and eat.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“It’s a real story of recovery,” says Jaime Jahncke, a lead scientist at Point Blue. But what are they recovering from?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lower whale abundance in 2015 was a consequence of two natural phenomena: a sprawling mass of anomalously warm water known as \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/08/09/possible-spoiler-for-el-nino-a-battle-of-the-blobs/\">the Blob, and El Niño\u003c/a>, a periodic shift in both ocean and atmospheric conditions. Together, they raised ocean temperatures and had mostly negative effects on marine life, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2015/11/23/how-warmer-waters-have-led-to-emaciated-seals-on-california-beaches/\">such as California seals\u003c/a> and sea lions. Thousands of sea lion pups were stranded or killed in February and March 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_894517\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-894517\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Unusually warm waters brought in by a combination of El Ñino and the Blob in late 2015 to early 2016 were not good for sea lion pups. These anomalously high temperatures disrupted the marine food chain, leaving the pups malnourished. This has lead to the recent high rates of sea lion pup mortality.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/08/sea-lion-pup-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Unusually warm ocean conditions in late 2015 led to high rates of sea lion pup mortality. \u003ccite>(iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Now the oceans have cooled and the wind is gusting, a trend scientists are happy to see.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The winds are strong enough to cause upwelling. They are pushing that water to the south and offshore, and it allows the cold, nutrient-rich water to come to the surface,” explains \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/contact/staff.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Danielle Lipski\u003c/a>, research coordinator for \u003ca href=\"http://cordellbank.noaa.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary\u003c/a>, another branch of NOAA. The nutrients act like fertilizer and increase the abundance of \u003ca href=\"http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/phyto.html\">phytoplankton.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_881027\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-881027\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Tiny, but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-400x267.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1440x960.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-1180x787.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/07/Krill-iStock_86347053_LARGE-960x640.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tiny but mighty, invertebrate krill are smaller than a fingertip and are also the primary food source for blue and humpback whales. \u003ccite>( Andrea Izzotti/iStock)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/sem/zooplankton.cfm\">Zooplankton\u003c/a> feed on the phytoplankton, which are then eaten by tiny shrimplike animals called \u003ca href=\"http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/lewis_clark01/background/midwater_realm/media/krill.html\">krill\u003c/a>. The whales gobble up the krill in a beautiful relationship where one of the smallest of lifeforms sustains the largest.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Strong El Niño Helped Lower U.S. Heating Costs",
"headTitle": "Strong El Niño Helped Lower U.S. Heating Costs | KQED",
"content": "\u003cp>Was your heating bill a bit friendlier to your wallet this winter? If so, there’s a good chance you can thank El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The exceptionally strong El Niño in the Pacific has been driving \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">chaotic weather\u003c/a> across the globe for months, but it also contributed to a mild winter in the U.S., which was about 15 percent warmer than the winter of 2014-2015.\u003cbr>\n[contextly_sidebar id=”zVCqv5TKYC3HFMByoxD0YLpimFkWBXMg”]\u003cbr>\nThe milder temperatures led people to use less energy to heat their homes compared to the previous winter, a new U.S. Department of Energy \u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25952\">report\u003c/a> shows. Above-normal temperatures contributed to a 16 percent drop in demand for propane used for heating, a 45 percent drop in heating oil consumption and a 6 percent decrease in electricity consumption compared to the winter of 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating demand nationwide declined as much as 27 percent in December compared to the average of the previous 10 winters as measured in \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=about_degree_days\">heating degree days\u003c/a>, a measure of how much utility bills increase as a result of the weather, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though heating demand in January matched the 10-year average, February demand was 17 percent below normal and March was 26 percent below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Slade Johnson, an analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said it’s too early to know if such a dramatic fall in energy demand for home heating has been seen before until at least late spring when the nation’s heating season has passed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño event is still occurring, although it is expected to dissipate by late spring or early summer,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The energy used for home heating is a contributor to climate change because of its use of natural gas, oil and electricity. Home heating accounts for about 63 percent of residential natural gas consumption, for example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating oil is often used in place of natural gas and electricity in the northeast. Heating oil is a highly-polluting crude oil product that emits about the\u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11\">same amount\u003c/a> of carbon dioxide as diesel fuel — less than coal but more than gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half of all households in the U.S. heat their homes with natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel used for home heating, which emits roughly half the carbon dioxide as coal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t be possible to know the exact effect that El Niño had on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from energy use this winter until the final numbers are tallied later this year, but emissions from U.S. energy consumption were down by 2.5 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year, EIA analyst Perry Lindstrom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of that was because of the warmer heating season — especially at the end of the year,” he said. “The other emissions effect is that, as a result of the above, natural gas prices were low and natural gas pushed out coal in electricity generation.”\u003c/p>\n\n",
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"excerpt": "Heating demand declined nationwide in December, February and March.",
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"nprByline": "\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/bobby-magill\" target=\"_blank\">Bobby Magill\u003c/a>\u003c/br>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Central\u003c/a>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Was your heating bill a bit friendlier to your wallet this winter? If so, there’s a good chance you can thank El Niño.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The exceptionally strong El Niño in the Pacific has been driving \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138\">chaotic weather\u003c/a> across the globe for months, but it also contributed to a mild winter in the U.S., which was about 15 percent warmer than the winter of 2014-2015.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cbr>\nThe milder temperatures led people to use less energy to heat their homes compared to the previous winter, a new U.S. Department of Energy \u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25952\">report\u003c/a> shows. Above-normal temperatures contributed to a 16 percent drop in demand for propane used for heating, a 45 percent drop in heating oil consumption and a 6 percent decrease in electricity consumption compared to the winter of 2014-2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating demand nationwide declined as much as 27 percent in December compared to the average of the previous 10 winters as measured in \u003ca href=\"https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=about_degree_days\">heating degree days\u003c/a>, a measure of how much utility bills increase as a result of the weather, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though heating demand in January matched the 10-year average, February demand was 17 percent below normal and March was 26 percent below normal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Slade Johnson, an analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said it’s too early to know if such a dramatic fall in energy demand for home heating has been seen before until at least late spring when the nation’s heating season has passed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The El Niño event is still occurring, although it is expected to dissipate by late spring or early summer,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The energy used for home heating is a contributor to climate change because of its use of natural gas, oil and electricity. Home heating accounts for about 63 percent of residential natural gas consumption, for example.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Heating oil is often used in place of natural gas and electricity in the northeast. Heating oil is a highly-polluting crude oil product that emits about the\u003ca href=\"http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=73&t=11\">same amount\u003c/a> of carbon dioxide as diesel fuel — less than coal but more than gasoline.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About half of all households in the U.S. heat their homes with natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel used for home heating, which emits roughly half the carbon dioxide as coal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It won’t be possible to know the exact effect that El Niño had on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from energy use this winter until the final numbers are tallied later this year, but emissions from U.S. energy consumption were down by 2.5 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year, EIA analyst Perry Lindstrom said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some of that was because of the warmer heating season — especially at the end of the year,” he said. “The other emissions effect is that, as a result of the above, natural gas prices were low and natural gas pushed out coal in electricity generation.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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