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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bay Area \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/air-district\">Air District\u003c/a> voted Wednesday to delay its zero-emission water heater rule by a year, pushing the start date to January 2028. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>The air regulators also approved carveouts that Air District staff believe will exempt roughly half of Bay Area households from the rule, based on factors like income or technical constraints.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I represent the areas that share a disproportionate burden of dealing with air pollutants, particularly the industrial areas in Oakland, Alameda, and San Leandro, and so if we can reduce harm with this rule, we should do it,” said Lena Tam, an air board member from the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hundreds of people shared public comment ahead of the vote on Wednesday, from environmentalists, medical professionals, religious groups and youth, who largely supported the regulation, to homeowner groups, who largely opposed it based on affordability.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002474\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Attendees hold signs during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upfront cost of a heat pump water heater is higher than the gas equivalent. Air District staff estimate that the heat pump version, which is the zero-emission alternative to a gas water heater, costs roughly $3,500 more.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Air District staff said pollution from Bay Area gas water heaters and furnaces is roughly equal to that of passenger vehicles. They are most concerned with nitrogen oxides, which come from burning fossil fuels like gas in cars and home appliances. The gases can irritate lungs, trigger asthma attacks and are associated with heart disease. They can create smog and harmful particulate matter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Implementing these rules would prevent deaths, save substantial money in medical bills, and lead to cleaner air, specifically in overburdened communities of color, according to Air District staff.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rule was first passed in 2023, along with another one aimed at phasing out new gas furnaces by 2029. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ban on the sale of new gas water heaters was set to take effect in 2027, but was reworked over the past year to allow for more time to inform the public and address hardships in implementing the rule. Board members voted to adopt those changes at Wednesday’s meeting, rather than keep the original 2027 start date without exemptions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most Air District board members said they felt the changes addressed the concerns of their constituents, with a few voting against the changes, or leaving the meeting altogether in a show of opposition to the regulation as a whole. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new rule means that when residents need to purchase a new water heater, it must be zero-emission. Models meeting that standard are heat pumps. The rule does not require replacing functioning gas water heaters, nor does it prevent their repair. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002479\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">J.W. Frye, CEO of Rebuilding Together East Bay Network, speaks during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there are exemptions that will apply to many people. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Property owners who make less than 80% of the area median income, or pay a significant percentage of their income to their mortgage and property taxes, will be excused.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Residents will attest to this by self-reporting through an online portal. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Homes with limited electrical capacity or a lack of space for the appliances will also receive a one-time exemption. A contractor would need to be involved to demonstrate that a household meets electrical constraints.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People who use small-capacity water heaters, under 30 gallons, will not need to adhere to the rule as there is limited availability of zero-emission versions of this appliance. And regulators extended compliance dates for multi-family buildings of more than five units to January 2033.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Implementing these rules would prevent deaths, save substantial money in medical bills, and lead to cleaner air, specifically in overburdened communities of color, according to Air District staff.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The rule was first passed in 2023, along with another one aimed at phasing out new gas furnaces by 2029. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The ban on the sale of new gas water heaters was set to take effect in 2027, but was reworked over the past year to allow for more time to inform the public and address hardships in implementing the rule. Board members voted to adopt those changes at Wednesday’s meeting, rather than keep the original 2027 start date without exemptions. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The ban on the sale of new gas water heaters was set to take effect in 2027, but was reworked over the past year to allow for more time to inform the public and address hardships in implementing the rule. Board members voted to adopt those changes at Wednesday’s meeting, rather than keep the original 2027 start date without exemptions. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Most Air District board members said they felt the changes addressed the concerns of their constituents, with a few voting against the changes, or leaving the meeting altogether in a show of opposition to the regulation as a whole. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The new rule means that when residents need to purchase a new water heater, it must be zero-emission. Models meeting that standard are heat pumps. The rule does not require replacing functioning gas water heaters, nor does it prevent their repair. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002479\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">J.W. Frye, CEO of Rebuilding Together East Bay Network, speaks during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002479\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">J.W. Frye, CEO of Rebuilding Together East Bay Network, speaks during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But there are exemptions that will apply to many people. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Property owners who make less than 80% of the area median income, or pay a significant percentage of their income to their mortgage and property taxes, will be excused.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Residents will attest to this by self-reporting through an online portal. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Homes with limited electrical capacity or a lack of space for the appliances will also receive a one-time exemption. A contractor would need to be involved to demonstrate that a household meets electrical constraints.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>People who use small-capacity water heaters, under 30 gallons, will not need to adhere to the rule as there is limited availability of zero-emission versions of this appliance. And regulators extended compliance dates for multi-family buildings of more than five units to January 2033.\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "The air regulators won’t require newly installed water heaters to be zero-emission until 2028. They also approved carveouts that will exempt roughly half of Bay Area households.",
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"title": "Bay Area Air District Votes to Delay Zero-Emission Water Heater Rule | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bay Area \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/air-district\">Air District\u003c/a> voted Wednesday to delay its zero-emission water heater rule by a year, pushing the start date to January 2028. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>The air regulators also approved carveouts that Air District staff believe will exempt roughly half of Bay Area households from the rule, based on factors like income or technical constraints.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I represent the areas that share a disproportionate burden of dealing with air pollutants, particularly the industrial areas in Oakland, Alameda, and San Leandro, and so if we can reduce harm with this rule, we should do it,” said Lena Tam, an air board member from the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hundreds of people shared public comment ahead of the vote on Wednesday, from environmentalists, medical professionals, religious groups and youth, who largely supported the regulation, to homeowner groups, who largely opposed it based on affordability.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002474\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-04-BL-KQED-d71afe24-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Attendees hold signs during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upfront cost of a heat pump water heater is higher than the gas equivalent. Air District staff estimate that the heat pump version, which is the zero-emission alternative to a gas water heater, costs roughly $3,500 more.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Air District staff said pollution from Bay Area gas water heaters and furnaces is roughly equal to that of passenger vehicles. They are most concerned with nitrogen oxides, which come from burning fossil fuels like gas in cars and home appliances. The gases can irritate lungs, trigger asthma attacks and are associated with heart disease. They can create smog and harmful particulate matter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Implementing these rules would prevent deaths, save substantial money in medical bills, and lead to cleaner air, specifically in overburdened communities of color, according to Air District staff.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rule was first passed in 2023, along with another one aimed at phasing out new gas furnaces by 2029. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ban on the sale of new gas water heaters was set to take effect in 2027, but was reworked over the past year to allow for more time to inform the public and address hardships in implementing the rule. Board members voted to adopt those changes at Wednesday’s meeting, rather than keep the original 2027 start date without exemptions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most Air District board members said they felt the changes addressed the concerns of their constituents, with a few voting against the changes, or leaving the meeting altogether in a show of opposition to the regulation as a whole. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new rule means that when residents need to purchase a new water heater, it must be zero-emission. Models meeting that standard are heat pumps. The rule does not require replacing functioning gas water heaters, nor does it prevent their repair. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002479\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261028-HeatpumpRules-13-BL-KQED-75ed3d7e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">J.W. Frye, CEO of Rebuilding Together East Bay Network, speaks during a press conference supporting zero-emission water heater regulations at 1-888 Heat Pumps in Emeryville on Oct. 28, 2026. The Bay Area Air District is scheduled to vote on proposed changes to the regulations Nov. 4. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there are exemptions that will apply to many people. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Property owners who make less than 80% of the area median income, or pay a significant percentage of their income to their mortgage and property taxes, will be excused.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Residents will attest to this by self-reporting through an online portal. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Homes with limited electrical capacity or a lack of space for the appliances will also receive a one-time exemption. A contractor would need to be involved to demonstrate that a household meets electrical constraints.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People who use small-capacity water heaters, under 30 gallons, will not need to adhere to the rule as there is limited availability of zero-emission versions of this appliance. And regulators extended compliance dates for multi-family buildings of more than five units to January 2033.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "el-nino-is-warming-monterey-bay-causing-trouble-for-ocean-life",
"title": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life",
"publishDate": 1793658764,
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"headTitle": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1475\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1554\" height=\"648\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1554px) 100vw, 1554px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026. (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1430\" height=\"2000\" data-id=\"2002520\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002520\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg 1430w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-160x224.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-768x1074.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-1098x1536.jpg 1098w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically see the siphonophore Athorybia during their fieldwork in Mexico. (Courtesy of Anik Grearson/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1688\" data-id=\"2002521\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002521\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-160x135.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-768x648.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-1536x1296.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically encounter the ctenophore Ocyropsis, recently spotted offshore of California’s Central Coast, in the tropical waters of Hawaii. (Courtesy of Steven Haddock/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north. (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "El Niño has pushed Monterey Bay’s ocean water temperatures to historic highs. One clear sign: warm-water species that are rarely seen offshore of the Central California Coast.",
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"title": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life | KQED",
"description": "El Niño has pushed Monterey Bay’s ocean water temperatures to historic highs. One clear sign: warm-water species that are rarely seen offshore of the Central California Coast.",
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"headline": "El Niño Is Warming Monterey Bay, Causing Trouble for Ocean Life",
"datePublished": "2026-11-02T14:32:44-08:00",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ocean water temperatures in \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001047/scientists-worry-el-nino-could-supercharge-marine-heat-wave-roiling-coastal-california\">Monterey Bay\u003c/a> are now the warmest observed in more than \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/project/mbts/\">30 years\u003c/a> — clear evidence of El Niño’s arrival on the Central Coast, according to the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers said the warming is partly due to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002352/what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels\">Kelvin waves\u003c/a>, a giant underwater swell that slowly delivers El Niño-associated warm water across the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As many as three Kelvin waves have already moved up the California coast. Scientists tracking the phenomenon found a strong influx of warm water at depth, around 200 feet below the ocean’s surface, which is a “definitive signature of the arrival of El Niño,” researchers wrote in a recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/news/mbari-researchers-observe-the-arrival-of-el-nino-in-monterey-bay/\">post\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1475\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002522\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-160x118.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-768x566.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-06-KQED-38d02ea2-1536x1133.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ROV Doc Ricketts and other advanced underwater technologies enable MBARI researchers to monitor the impacts of El Niño on deep-sea ecosystems. (Courtesy of Giovanna Sainz/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers wrote that as of Oct. 26, the temperature reached 18.18 degrees Celsius — roughly 64 degrees Fahrenheit — “surpassing the time-series record high set on November 19, 1997, during a previous El Niño event.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This current El Niño has been forecasted to be one of the strongest of the modern record and the M1 mooring confirms this forecast for Monterey Bay,” said senior scientist Francisco Chavez, of the institute’s buoy with instruments to about 300 feet below the surface of the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There’s an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">83% chance\u003c/a> that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall and winter, according to an October outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1554\" height=\"648\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002518\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2.jpg 1554w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-160x67.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-768x320.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-02-KQED-cf641ff2-1536x640.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1554px) 100vw, 1554px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI has built a time series with nearly 40 years of hourly ocean temperature records in the heart of Monterey Bay at a depth of 60 meters (approximately 200 feet) underwater. All years are plotted as thin gray lines; the average year is the green line, and the current year is plotted in purple with the remainder of the previous year in dark green. The warmest measurement ever to date was observed on Oct. 26, 2026. (Courtesy of Francisco Chavez/2026 MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seasonal climate pattern is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring stormier weather, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The absence of cool water near the surface can have major ramifications on ocean life. Chavez said the strongest impacts will likely occur this winter and spring.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If it follows other El Niños, it’ll keep getting warmer and stay warm for six or more months,” Chavez said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“But we won’t get as warm as Southern California has gotten.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scientists are closely \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/data/m1-mooring-real-time-plots/\">tracking\u003c/a> daily temperatures to provide context for ecological observations in the coming months. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The influx and presence of warm water for months will likely mean less food for whales, birds and other species. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelp could die or recede. It could also lead to meteorological impacts like intense rainfall and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experts have already sighted warm-water species near the surface that aren’t usually seen in the region, including tropical species like the \u003ca href=\"https://www.montereybayaquarium.org/animals-the-ocean/animals-a-to-z/winged-comb-jelly\">winged comb jelly\u003c/a> and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.mbari.org/animal/red-siphonophore/\">rose siphonophore\u003c/a>. They also saw schools of halfmoon fish, which are usually found in Southern California. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1430\" height=\"2000\" data-id=\"2002520\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002520\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff.jpg 1430w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-160x224.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-768x1074.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-04-KQED-dbaad1ff-1098x1536.jpg 1098w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically see the siphonophore Athorybia during their fieldwork in Mexico. (Courtesy of Anik Grearson/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1688\" data-id=\"2002521\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002521\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-160x135.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-768x648.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-05-KQED-c65d01b9-1536x1296.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MBARI researchers typically encounter the ctenophore Ocyropsis, recently spotted offshore of California’s Central Coast, in the tropical waters of Hawaii. (Courtesy of Steven Haddock/MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Typically, we collect tropical species like [winged comb jelly] while diving near Hawaii,” said Steven Haddock, a senior scientist with the institute. “Finding large reproductive individuals right in our own backyard was a real surprise.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warm-water species can affect local marine life and cause “cascading effects on the ocean food web,” researchers wrote. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Seabirds are especially vulnerable to shifting food supplies, while whales find their habitat and feeding grounds compressed near the coast.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/11/261102-El-Nino-Monterey-07-KQED-742d4a96-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Large numbers of pelagic red crabs (Grimothea planipes) visit Monterey Bay during El Niño years, but MBARI has never observed juveniles of this warm-water crustacean this far north. (Courtesy of MBARI)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other researchers have also spotted species at lower depths not usually found in Monterey Bay, including juvenile pelagic red crabs and several Humboldt squid.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“As a rule, these warm-water species are uncommon here in the cool depths of Monterey Bay,” BARI Senior Scientist Bruce Robison said. “These sightings are likely the first indicators of a transition in deep midwater community composition and structure, linked to the impending El Niño.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "berkeley-voters-to-decide-whether-to-double-citys-soda-tax",
"title": "Berkeley Voters To Decide Whether to Double City’s Soda Tax",
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"headTitle": "Berkeley Voters To Decide Whether to Double City’s Soda Tax | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Classes let out at \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/berkeley\">Berkeley\u003c/a> High School at 3:33 pm on a recent weekday, and within minutes, scores of teenagers streamed into the Target a few blocks away on Shattuck Avenue for their afternoon soda fix.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sophomore Kiko Kopman stood in the check-out line clutching a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull, a near-daily purchase to keep him going through his early mornings and long days.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I usually try to match the Red Bull to the outfit, and if there’s no good match, then to the hair,” he said, pointing toward his spiky hot pink do. “So, gotta go with the hot pink Red Bull.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002471\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kiko Kopman poses for a photo holding a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kopman said the caffeine content drove his purchase, but he was hit with some sticker shock when he looked at how much sugar was in it — 38 grams — and learned that the tax on his 12-ounce sugary drink could double in the near future, from 12 cents to 24 cents. That’s if Berkeley voters pass \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleyvsbigsoda.org/\">Measure AA\u003c/a> this November, raising the soda tax from 1 cent per fluid ounce to 2 cents. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The city was the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">first in the nation\u003c/a> to pass a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in 2014 and, since then, seven other cities have followed suit, including Philadelphia, Seattle and most recently, Santa Cruz. But as these measures have succeeded as intended — persuading people to drink less soda — the tax revenues they bring in have dropped in kind, forcing Berkeley to propose doubling its tax in order to maintain the health and education programs that have come to depend on those revenues. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Staring at the can in his hands, Kopman and several other teens said the price hike would definitely make them think twice before buying in the future.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I’m on a budget right now,” said junior William Huff, who partakes in an occasional root beer at 7-Eleven, where the new tax on a Big Gulp could run between 64 cents and $1.28. “Prices have definitely been on my mind, like the price of college, price of housing for college. So being put into a situation where I have to be wise with my money will definitely change my spending habits.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This kind of behavior change is exactly the outcome hoped for by proponents of soda taxes: to get people to reduce their consumption of sugary drinks as a means of improving health. Research from the past decade indicates that such taxes have worked.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“They’ve reduced intake of sugar, they’ve improved weight status,” said Sara Bleich, public health policy professor at Harvard. “They’ve also improved oral health; they’ve improved pregnancy and birth outcomes.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early on, critics hypothesized that people would simply travel to neighboring cities without the tax to buy their soda and sports drinks. \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2733208\">Studies show\u003c/a> this did happen, but it only accounted for a fraction of the decline in sugar-sweetened beverage sales — when controlling for cross-border shopping, sugary drink purchases still plummeted 33% across five cities: Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland and Boulder. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The health benefits of reducing sugar followed. Studies find an association between cities with soda taxes and reduced body mass index among \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821695\">children\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523005335\">high school students\u003c/a>, as well as a decrease in obesity among \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34902003/\">adolescent girls\u003c/a>. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36863896/\">tooth decay among low-income children\u003c/a> fell 30% in the two years after the soda tax was implemented.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1463\" data-id=\"2002467\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002467\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-160x117.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-768x562.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-1536x1124.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sodas on shelves at E-Z Stop Deli in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" data-id=\"2002465\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002465\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ramona Cohen shops for a Yerba Mate during her lunch break at E-Z Stop Deli in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I have been in the health policy world for 20 years, and there are very, very few things that provide those sorts of outcomes,” Bleich said. “It’s the largest behavioral impact I’ve ever seen.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Berkeley, the soda tax worked so well, it started to work against itself. As people bought less soda, tax revenues slumped, from $1.5 million a year to $1 million. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://picapa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Phila-Bev-Tax-Fact-Sheet.pdf\">tax revenues fell\u003c/a> from $77 million to $68 million over seven years. This is the curse of so-called vice taxes: as they become more successful at curbing bad habits, the programs that depend on the tax revenues begin to suffer.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the reasoning behind Berkeley’s attempt to double its soda tax: to raise more money for the health services and education programs funded by the tax. Martin Bourque, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://theecologycenter.org/\">the Ecology Center\u003c/a>, one of the backers of the soda tax, said almost a full generation of kids have been educated through soda-tax funded healthy eating programs, from the preschool level to elementary school and into the teenage years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>We’re hitting susceptible, vulnerable young people at multiple points as they come through these organizations and educational institutions,” he said. “We need to keep doing that. We need to do more of it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The beverage industry has fought vociferously to defeat soda taxes. Before Berkeley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">30 other cities\u003c/a> had attempted to pass one and failed. The industry spent $2.3 million opposing Berkeley’s initial campaign in 2014, and though it’s spent nothing this time around, it contends the increased tax will only do harm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Doubling taxes on groceries when family budgets are already stretched thin will hurt Berkeley families, small businesses and their employees,” said Steven Maviglio of the American Beverage Association of California. “They disproportionately burden those who can least afford it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the E-Z Stop Deli on Shattuck, owner Ali Ereikat said he is not a fan of raising the soda tax. He thinks teaching kids about the harms of sugar is the better way to go.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Education is more important than penalizing,” he said. “Educate them. Don’t charge them more.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002469\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">William Huff poses for a photo holding a Sprite bottle outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, education is a key focus of the Berkeley tax revenue. About half the funds are used to provide health services to low-income communities, including primary and dental care, while the other half funds nutrition classes and gardening programs at Berkeley public schools — classes that Kopman took in middle school.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The image that popped into my head was like a pile of sugar,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He said he remembers a demonstration where the teacher lined up a can of Coke, iced tea, fruit punch and water. Then, to illustrate the sugar content of each one, spooned an actual pile of sugar onto the table.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Some of those were crazy,” Kopman said, adding, if the tax money goes to a good cause like that, “then I think there’s no reason not to have it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002471\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kiko Kopman poses for a photo holding a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002471\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kiko Kopman poses for a photo holding a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kopman said the caffeine content drove his purchase, but he was hit with some sticker shock when he looked at how much sugar was in it — 38 grams — and learned that the tax on his 12-ounce sugary drink could double in the near future, from 12 cents to 24 cents. That’s if Berkeley voters pass \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleyvsbigsoda.org/\">Measure AA\u003c/a> this November, raising the soda tax from 1 cent per fluid ounce to 2 cents. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kopman said the caffeine content drove his purchase, but he was hit with some sticker shock when he looked at how much sugar was in it — 38 grams — and learned that the tax on his 12-ounce sugary drink could double in the near future, from 12 cents to 24 cents. That’s if Berkeley voters pass \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleyvsbigsoda.org/\">Measure AA\u003c/a> this November, raising the soda tax from 1 cent per fluid ounce to 2 cents. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The city was the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">first in the nation\u003c/a> to pass a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in 2014 and, since then, seven other cities have followed suit, including Philadelphia, Seattle and most recently, Santa Cruz. But as these measures have succeeded as intended — persuading people to drink less soda — the tax revenues they bring in have dropped in kind, forcing Berkeley to propose doubling its tax in order to maintain the health and education programs that have come to depend on those revenues. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Staring at the can in his hands, Kopman and several other teens said the price hike would definitely make them think twice before buying in the future.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I’m on a budget right now,” said junior William Huff, who partakes in an occasional root beer at 7-Eleven, where the new tax on a Big Gulp could run between 64 cents and $1.28. “Prices have definitely been on my mind, like the price of college, price of housing for college. So being put into a situation where I have to be wise with my money will definitely change my spending habits.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This kind of behavior change is exactly the outcome hoped for by proponents of soda taxes: to get people to reduce their consumption of sugary drinks as a means of improving health. Research from the past decade indicates that such taxes have worked.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“They’ve reduced intake of sugar, they’ve improved weight status,” said Sara Bleich, public health policy professor at Harvard. “They’ve also improved oral health; they’ve improved pregnancy and birth outcomes.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Early on, critics hypothesized that people would simply travel to neighboring cities without the tax to buy their soda and sports drinks. \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2733208\">Studies show\u003c/a> this did happen, but it only accounted for a fraction of the decline in sugar-sweetened beverage sales — when controlling for cross-border shopping, sugary drink purchases still plummeted 33% across five cities: Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland and Boulder. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Early on, critics hypothesized that people would simply travel to neighboring cities without the tax to buy their soda and sports drinks. \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2733208\">Studies show\u003c/a> this did happen, but it only accounted for a fraction of the decline in sugar-sweetened beverage sales — when controlling for cross-border shopping, sugary drink purchases still plummeted 33% across five cities: Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland and Boulder. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The health benefits of reducing sugar followed. Studies find an association between cities with soda taxes and reduced body mass index among \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821695\">children\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523005335\">high school students\u003c/a>, as well as a decrease in obesity among \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34902003/\">adolescent girls\u003c/a>. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36863896/\">tooth decay among low-income children\u003c/a> fell 30% in the two years after the soda tax was implemented.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I have been in the health policy world for 20 years, and there are very, very few things that provide those sorts of outcomes,” Bleich said. “It’s the largest behavioral impact I’ve ever seen.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In Berkeley, the soda tax worked so well, it started to work against itself. As people bought less soda, tax revenues slumped, from $1.5 million a year to $1 million. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://picapa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Phila-Bev-Tax-Fact-Sheet.pdf\">tax revenues fell\u003c/a> from $77 million to $68 million over seven years. This is the curse of so-called vice taxes: as they become more successful at curbing bad habits, the programs that depend on the tax revenues begin to suffer.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In Berkeley, the soda tax worked so well, it started to work against itself. As people bought less soda, tax revenues slumped, from $1.5 million a year to $1 million. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://picapa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Phila-Bev-Tax-Fact-Sheet.pdf\">tax revenues fell\u003c/a> from $77 million to $68 million over seven years. This is the curse of so-called vice taxes: as they become more successful at curbing bad habits, the programs that depend on the tax revenues begin to suffer.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This is the reasoning behind Berkeley’s attempt to double its soda tax: to raise more money for the health services and education programs funded by the tax. Martin Bourque, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://theecologycenter.org/\">the Ecology Center\u003c/a>, one of the backers of the soda tax, said almost a full generation of kids have been educated through soda-tax funded healthy eating programs, from the preschool level to elementary school and into the teenage years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This is the reasoning behind Berkeley’s attempt to double its soda tax: to raise more money for the health services and education programs funded by the tax. Martin Bourque, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://theecologycenter.org/\">the Ecology Center\u003c/a>, one of the backers of the soda tax, said almost a full generation of kids have been educated through soda-tax funded healthy eating programs, from the preschool level to elementary school and into the teenage years.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>We’re hitting susceptible, vulnerable young people at multiple points as they come through these organizations and educational institutions,” he said. “We need to keep doing that. We need to do more of it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>We’re hitting susceptible, vulnerable young people at multiple points as they come through these organizations and educational institutions,” he said. “We need to keep doing that. We need to do more of it.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The beverage industry has fought vociferously to defeat soda taxes. Before Berkeley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">30 other cities\u003c/a> had attempted to pass one and failed. The industry spent $2.3 million opposing Berkeley’s initial campaign in 2014, and though it’s spent nothing this time around, it contends the increased tax will only do harm.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The beverage industry has fought vociferously to defeat soda taxes. Before Berkeley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">30 other cities\u003c/a> had attempted to pass one and failed. The industry spent $2.3 million opposing Berkeley’s initial campaign in 2014, and though it’s spent nothing this time around, it contends the increased tax will only do harm.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Doubling taxes on groceries when family budgets are already stretched thin will hurt Berkeley families, small businesses and their employees,” said Steven Maviglio of the American Beverage Association of California. “They disproportionately burden those who can least afford it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Doubling taxes on groceries when family budgets are already stretched thin will hurt Berkeley families, small businesses and their employees,” said Steven Maviglio of the American Beverage Association of California. “They disproportionately burden those who can least afford it.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>At the E-Z Stop Deli on Shattuck, owner Ali Ereikat said he is not a fan of raising the soda tax. He thinks teaching kids about the harms of sugar is the better way to go.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>At the E-Z Stop Deli on Shattuck, owner Ali Ereikat said he is not a fan of raising the soda tax. He thinks teaching kids about the harms of sugar is the better way to go.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Education is more important than penalizing,” he said. “Educate them. Don’t charge them more.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Indeed, education is a key focus of the Berkeley tax revenue. About half the funds are used to provide health services to low-income communities, including primary and dental care, while the other half funds nutrition classes and gardening programs at Berkeley public schools — classes that Kopman took in middle school.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Indeed, education is a key focus of the Berkeley tax revenue. About half the funds are used to provide health services to low-income communities, including primary and dental care, while the other half funds nutrition classes and gardening programs at Berkeley public schools — classes that Kopman took in middle school.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The image that popped into my head was like a pile of sugar,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He said he remembers a demonstration where the teacher lined up a can of Coke, iced tea, fruit punch and water. Then, to illustrate the sugar content of each one, spooned an actual pile of sugar onto the table.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Some of those were crazy,” Kopman said, adding, if the tax money goes to a good cause like that, “then I think there’s no reason not to have it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Berkeley was the first city in the U.S. to pass a tax on sugary drinks in 2014. This election, the city is asking voters to double it to 2 cents per fluid ounce.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Classes let out at \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/berkeley\">Berkeley\u003c/a> High School at 3:33 pm on a recent weekday, and within minutes, scores of teenagers streamed into the Target a few blocks away on Shattuck Avenue for their afternoon soda fix.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sophomore Kiko Kopman stood in the check-out line clutching a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull, a near-daily purchase to keep him going through his early mornings and long days.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I usually try to match the Red Bull to the outfit, and if there’s no good match, then to the hair,” he said, pointing toward his spiky hot pink do. “So, gotta go with the hot pink Red Bull.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002471\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-22-KQED-67c209e1-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kiko Kopman poses for a photo holding a wild-berry-flavored Red Bull outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kopman said the caffeine content drove his purchase, but he was hit with some sticker shock when he looked at how much sugar was in it — 38 grams — and learned that the tax on his 12-ounce sugary drink could double in the near future, from 12 cents to 24 cents. That’s if Berkeley voters pass \u003ca href=\"https://www.berkeleyvsbigsoda.org/\">Measure AA\u003c/a> this November, raising the soda tax from 1 cent per fluid ounce to 2 cents. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The city was the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">first in the nation\u003c/a> to pass a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in 2014 and, since then, seven other cities have followed suit, including Philadelphia, Seattle and most recently, Santa Cruz. But as these measures have succeeded as intended — persuading people to drink less soda — the tax revenues they bring in have dropped in kind, forcing Berkeley to propose doubling its tax in order to maintain the health and education programs that have come to depend on those revenues. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Staring at the can in his hands, Kopman and several other teens said the price hike would definitely make them think twice before buying in the future.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I’m on a budget right now,” said junior William Huff, who partakes in an occasional root beer at 7-Eleven, where the new tax on a Big Gulp could run between 64 cents and $1.28. “Prices have definitely been on my mind, like the price of college, price of housing for college. So being put into a situation where I have to be wise with my money will definitely change my spending habits.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This kind of behavior change is exactly the outcome hoped for by proponents of soda taxes: to get people to reduce their consumption of sugary drinks as a means of improving health. Research from the past decade indicates that such taxes have worked.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“They’ve reduced intake of sugar, they’ve improved weight status,” said Sara Bleich, public health policy professor at Harvard. “They’ve also improved oral health; they’ve improved pregnancy and birth outcomes.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early on, critics hypothesized that people would simply travel to neighboring cities without the tax to buy their soda and sports drinks. \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2733208\">Studies show\u003c/a> this did happen, but it only accounted for a fraction of the decline in sugar-sweetened beverage sales — when controlling for cross-border shopping, sugary drink purchases still plummeted 33% across five cities: Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland and Boulder. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The health benefits of reducing sugar followed. Studies find an association between cities with soda taxes and reduced body mass index among \u003ca href=\"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821695\">children\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523005335\">high school students\u003c/a>, as well as a decrease in obesity among \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34902003/\">adolescent girls\u003c/a>. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36863896/\">tooth decay among low-income children\u003c/a> fell 30% in the two years after the soda tax was implemented.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1463\" data-id=\"2002467\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002467\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-160x117.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-768x562.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-12-KQED_1-02df7a8e-1536x1124.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sodas on shelves at E-Z Stop Deli in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" data-id=\"2002465\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002465\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-2-KQED-ca5507d9-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ramona Cohen shops for a Yerba Mate during her lunch break at E-Z Stop Deli in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I have been in the health policy world for 20 years, and there are very, very few things that provide those sorts of outcomes,” Bleich said. “It’s the largest behavioral impact I’ve ever seen.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Berkeley, the soda tax worked so well, it started to work against itself. As people bought less soda, tax revenues slumped, from $1.5 million a year to $1 million. In Philadelphia, \u003ca href=\"https://picapa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Phila-Bev-Tax-Fact-Sheet.pdf\">tax revenues fell\u003c/a> from $77 million to $68 million over seven years. This is the curse of so-called vice taxes: as they become more successful at curbing bad habits, the programs that depend on the tax revenues begin to suffer.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the reasoning behind Berkeley’s attempt to double its soda tax: to raise more money for the health services and education programs funded by the tax. Martin Bourque, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://theecologycenter.org/\">the Ecology Center\u003c/a>, one of the backers of the soda tax, said almost a full generation of kids have been educated through soda-tax funded healthy eating programs, from the preschool level to elementary school and into the teenage years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>We’re hitting susceptible, vulnerable young people at multiple points as they come through these organizations and educational institutions,” he said. “We need to keep doing that. We need to do more of it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The beverage industry has fought vociferously to defeat soda taxes. Before Berkeley, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/10347220/how-did-berkeley-pass-a-soda-tax-when-other-cities-failed\">30 other cities\u003c/a> had attempted to pass one and failed. The industry spent $2.3 million opposing Berkeley’s initial campaign in 2014, and though it’s spent nothing this time around, it contends the increased tax will only do harm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Doubling taxes on groceries when family budgets are already stretched thin will hurt Berkeley families, small businesses and their employees,” said Steven Maviglio of the American Beverage Association of California. “They disproportionately burden those who can least afford it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the E-Z Stop Deli on Shattuck, owner Ali Ereikat said he is not a fan of raising the soda tax. He thinks teaching kids about the harms of sugar is the better way to go.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Education is more important than penalizing,” he said. “Educate them. Don’t charge them more.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002469\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/20261029_SODATAX_GC-19-KQED-f23e0cff-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">William Huff poses for a photo holding a Sprite bottle outside of Target in Berkeley on Oct. 29, 2026. (Gina Castro/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, education is a key focus of the Berkeley tax revenue. About half the funds are used to provide health services to low-income communities, including primary and dental care, while the other half funds nutrition classes and gardening programs at Berkeley public schools — classes that Kopman took in middle school.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The image that popped into my head was like a pile of sugar,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He said he remembers a demonstration where the teacher lined up a can of Coke, iced tea, fruit punch and water. Then, to illustrate the sugar content of each one, spooned an actual pile of sugar onto the table.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Some of those were crazy,” Kopman said, adding, if the tax money goes to a good cause like that, “then I think there’s no reason not to have it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "california-cancer-patients-disagree-over-whether-prop-38-will-help-them",
"title": "California Cancer Patients Disagree Over Whether Proposition 38 Will Help Them",
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"headTitle": "California Cancer Patients Disagree Over Whether Proposition 38 Will Help Them | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cancer patients who say their lives were saved by innovations in immunotherapy treatments are among the most vocal proponents of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102150/prop-38-borrows-8-4-billion-to-fund-immunology-research\">California’s Proposition 38\u003c/a>, arguing the $8.4 billion bond measure to fund immune-system research would save even more lives. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But those who oppose Proposition 38 are also patients, who say their illnesses are being exploited to shill for an initiative that is overly narrow, opaque and expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Don’t approve this measure because you want to help me or other people with Parkinson’s,” said Marianne O’Malley, a former analyst with the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease about eight years ago. “This is the wrong way to go about things.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Backers of Proposition 38 proposed it as a solution to the Trump administration’s attack on science: where federal research funding has become diminished or uncertain, California would step in, issuing bond money to bring stability to promising projects and turn the state into a hub of excellence for immunology and immunotherapy research. But the patients who stand to benefit from such a move are divided over whether Californians should shoulder that burden instead of taxpayers across the US, and if so, whether Proposition 38 is the right way to do it.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I have never thought of biomedical research as something that needs to be centered in a particular location,” said Robert Kaplan, a senior scholar at \u003ca href=\"https://med.stanford.edu/cerc.html\">Stanford\u003c/a> who formerly coordinated research portfolios at the National Institutes of Health and an opponent of Proposition 38. “Proposition 38 money is good for California institutions, but it means that California taxpayers might be taking a disproportionate share of the responsibility for paying for that research.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Laurie Adami, a supporter of Proposition 38, was diagnosed with blood cancer when she was 46. She holds two cancer scans, one before she received immunotherapy treatment (left) and one after (right). (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Blood cancer survivor Laurie Adami is in favor of the measure. She was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma 20 years ago, when she was 46, and her son was in kindergarten. She fought her way through seven different treatments, including grueling rounds of chemotherapy and three experimental trials so she could survive to see him graduate from high school. In 2018, she enrolled in an immunotherapy trial where scientists reengineered Adami’s own immune cells to attack her disease.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Chemotherapy is like napalm — they poison your whole body in the hopes of killing off your cancer,” she said. “This idea of waking up the immune system is a much more elegant way to target cancers.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The therapy she received was called CAR-T. Scientists extracted a sample of Adami’s T-cells and modified them in the lab so they would attach to the specific proteins on her cancer cells. Put another way, T-cells are like the Pac Mans of the immune system, and scientists altered them so they would be hungry specifically for her type of cancer cells, then infused them back into her bloodstream to start eating. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adami received one CAR-T infusion and has been in complete remission ever since.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Why wouldn’t I want more patients to be able to access the type of treatment that finally saved my life?” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adami is just one patient from one clinical trial. Though immunotherapy has improved \u003ca href=\"https://www.cancerresearch.org/blog/cancer-statistics-2026\">survival rates\u003c/a> for certain cancers, including lung, liver, and some types of skin and blood cancers, the treatment does not work for most people: only \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/inhealth/about-us/immunotherapy-precision-medicine-action-policy-brief\">15 to 20% of patients\u003c/a> achieve durable results. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immunotherapy research is still in the early and experimental stages for other cancers and diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and ALS. Across treatments and conditions, only \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29394327/\">14% of drugs in clinical trials\u003c/a> ever reach FDA approval. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the speculative nature of this early-stage research, caregiver Viva Mogi said she will vote for Proposition 38 for the hope it offers. Mogi put her own life and career on hold to care for her mother, who was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s ten years ago. At the time, doctors told them there was no cure and not enough medications to help.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“They wished us luck,” Mogi said. Looking ahead to her own potential diagnosis and decline from the disease, she said, “I don’t ever want to go through this or put my husband through this.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002388\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Viva Mogi, a supporter of Proposition 38, is a full-time caretaker for her mother who has Alzheimer’s. (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But with state taxpayers on the hook for $4 billion in interest payments on top of the $8.4 billion bond, other patients say the debt the state would incur from supporting Proposition 38 is not worth the hope, especially in light of California’s other long-term obligations and deficits.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cancer survivor, Dan Carson is one of several retired financial analysts from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office who broke a long tradition of nonpartisan silence to speak out against the measure.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carson ran the health section of the LAO when it was tasked with evaluating the $3 billion \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1970180/proposition-14-with-handful-of-cures-calif-stem-cell-agency-has-mixed-record-will-voters-pony-up-another-5-5-billion\">stem cell bond initiative\u003c/a> in 2004 known as Proposition 71. The measure was pitched to voters as a protest against the George W. Bush administration’s abandonment of stem cell research on religious grounds. Its backers said California would become a new hub for stem cell discoveries and promised the state would receive a windfall of royalty payments to pay back the bond and interest. But the money never materialized, with the state receiving just $16 million of the $6 billion it was promised, Carson said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, Proposition 38 backers say it will be cost neutral. Provisions in the measure would require 10% of any licensing fees derived from immunotherapy treatment discoveries be paid back to the state, and that such treatments be made available to Californians at a 20% discount.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Once again, we’re being promised in this initiative and by its advocates that it will ‘pay for itself with no net cost to the state or taxpayers,’” Carson said. “I’m here to tell you that after reviewing the fine print of this measure, that won’t happen. Not even close.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002387\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, works out on an elliptical trainer in her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease. (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When O’Malley attended her regular boxing and rock climbing classes for people with Parkinson’s — currently, exercise is the top therapy proven to slow the progression of the disease — other students approached her with questions about Proposition 38 because of her experience at the LAO. Should they vote for it? they asked.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We’re all desperate for a cure, or at least a treatment,” O’Malley said. “And the disappointing thing to tell them is, ‘No, this measure doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.’”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The campaign in favor of Proposition 38 is being financed by philanthropist Gary Michelson, who also happens to be a co-founder and chair of the brand new \u003ca href=\"https://www.calimmunology.org/\">California Institute for Immunology & Immunotherapy\u003c/a> at UCLA, which, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2026/07/proposition-38-california/\">according to the ballot measure’s criteria\u003c/a>, stands to receive half the bond money directly, then help oversee the distribution of the other half in research grants to nonprofits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The measure would also exempt this institute from complying with a series of state transparency laws, including public records act requests and open meetings, O’Malley said, meaning taxpayers won’t have a way of knowing if their money is being spent wisely.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002386\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, rests in her backyard after exercising on an elliptical trainer at her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease. (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This measure hijacks the initiative process to steer public funds to a billionaire’s philanthropic project and then hides its tracks by waiving all the usual laws to promote governmental transparency,” she said. “This one is so bad and supposedly being done to help people like me, I felt a moral obligation to speak out.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the state of California wants to be a center of scientific research, there are better ways to do it, said Judy Heiman, another former LAO analyst. Medical research grants should be subject to an open, competitive bidding process; they should be awarded based on scientific merit and public health need, not what’s popular at the ballot box. And they should undergo independent review before more funds are disbursed.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Prop. 38 fails these basic tests,” Heiman said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102760/7-5b-california-science-agency-plan-free-from-trumps-influence-will-go-to-voters\">another bond measure\u003c/a> that includes these parameters and safeguards will be on the ballot in March 2028, she pointed out. This research fund, borne from months of democratic debate and negotiation in the state legislature, is intended for a wider variety of research, including biomedical, behavioral health, and climate.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“There’s a legitimate argument about whether California should add billions of dollars in medical research spending to its already substantial debt burden,” Heiman said. “Scientific merit, not institutional favoritism, should drive where the money goes.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But those who oppose Proposition 38 are also patients, who say their illnesses are being exploited to shill for an initiative that is overly narrow, opaque and expensive.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Don’t approve this measure because you want to help me or other people with Parkinson’s,” said Marianne O’Malley, a former analyst with the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease about eight years ago. “This is the wrong way to go about things.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Backers of Proposition 38 proposed it as a solution to the Trump administration’s attack on science: where federal research funding has become diminished or uncertain, California would step in, issuing bond money to bring stability to promising projects and turn the state into a hub of excellence for immunology and immunotherapy research. But the patients who stand to benefit from such a move are divided over whether Californians should shoulder that burden instead of taxpayers across the US, and if so, whether Proposition 38 is the right way to do it.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Backers of Proposition 38 proposed it as a solution to the Trump administration’s attack on science: where federal research funding has become diminished or uncertain, California would step in, issuing bond money to bring stability to promising projects and turn the state into a hub of excellence for immunology and immunotherapy research. But the patients who stand to benefit from such a move are divided over whether Californians should shoulder that burden instead of taxpayers across the US, and if so, whether Proposition 38 is the right way to do it.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I have never thought of biomedical research as something that needs to be centered in a particular location,” said Robert Kaplan, a senior scholar at \u003ca href=\"https://med.stanford.edu/cerc.html\">Stanford\u003c/a> who formerly coordinated research portfolios at the National Institutes of Health and an opponent of Proposition 38. “Proposition 38 money is good for California institutions, but it means that California taxpayers might be taking a disproportionate share of the responsibility for paying for that research.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I have never thought of biomedical research as something that needs to be centered in a particular location,” said Robert Kaplan, a senior scholar at \u003ca href=\"https://med.stanford.edu/cerc.html\">Stanford\u003c/a> who formerly coordinated research portfolios at the National Institutes of Health and an opponent of Proposition 38. “Proposition 38 money is good for California institutions, but it means that California taxpayers might be taking a disproportionate share of the responsibility for paying for that research.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Laurie Adami, a supporter of Proposition 38, was diagnosed with blood cancer when she was 46. She holds two cancer scans, one before she received immunotherapy treatment (left) and one after (right).\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002389\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Laurie Adami, a supporter of Proposition 38, was diagnosed with blood cancer when she was 46. She holds two cancer scans, one before she received immunotherapy treatment (left) and one after (right).\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Blood cancer survivor Laurie Adami is in favor of the measure. She was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma 20 years ago, when she was 46, and her son was in kindergarten. She fought her way through seven different treatments, including grueling rounds of chemotherapy and three experimental trials so she could survive to see him graduate from high school. In 2018, she enrolled in an immunotherapy trial where scientists reengineered Adami’s own immune cells to attack her disease.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Blood cancer survivor Laurie Adami is in favor of the measure. She was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma 20 years ago, when she was 46, and her son was in kindergarten. She fought her way through seven different treatments, including grueling rounds of chemotherapy and three experimental trials so she could survive to see him graduate from high school. In 2018, she enrolled in an immunotherapy trial where scientists reengineered Adami’s own immune cells to attack her disease.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Chemotherapy is like napalm — they poison your whole body in the hopes of killing off your cancer,” she said. “This idea of waking up the immune system is a much more elegant way to target cancers.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Chemotherapy is like napalm — they poison your whole body in the hopes of killing off your cancer,” she said. “This idea of waking up the immune system is a much more elegant way to target cancers.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The therapy she received was called CAR-T. Scientists extracted a sample of Adami’s T-cells and modified them in the lab so they would attach to the specific proteins on her cancer cells. Put another way, T-cells are like the Pac Mans of the immune system, and scientists altered them so they would be hungry specifically for her type of cancer cells, then infused them back into her bloodstream to start eating. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The therapy she received was called CAR-T. Scientists extracted a sample of Adami’s T-cells and modified them in the lab so they would attach to the specific proteins on her cancer cells. Put another way, T-cells are like the Pac Mans of the immune system, and scientists altered them so they would be hungry specifically for her type of cancer cells, then infused them back into her bloodstream to start eating. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Adami received one CAR-T infusion and has been in complete remission ever since.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Why wouldn’t I want more patients to be able to access the type of treatment that finally saved my life?” she said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Why wouldn’t I want more patients to be able to access the type of treatment that finally saved my life?” she said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Adami is just one patient from one clinical trial. Though immunotherapy has improved \u003ca href=\"https://www.cancerresearch.org/blog/cancer-statistics-2026\">survival rates\u003c/a> for certain cancers, including lung, liver, and some types of skin and blood cancers, the treatment does not work for most people: only \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/inhealth/about-us/immunotherapy-precision-medicine-action-policy-brief\">15 to 20% of patients\u003c/a> achieve durable results. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Adami is just one patient from one clinical trial. Though immunotherapy has improved \u003ca href=\"https://www.cancerresearch.org/blog/cancer-statistics-2026\">survival rates\u003c/a> for certain cancers, including lung, liver, and some types of skin and blood cancers, the treatment does not work for most people: only \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/inhealth/about-us/immunotherapy-precision-medicine-action-policy-brief\">15 to 20% of patients\u003c/a> achieve durable results. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Immunotherapy research is still in the early and experimental stages for other cancers and diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and ALS. Across treatments and conditions, only \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29394327/\">14% of drugs in clinical trials\u003c/a> ever reach FDA approval. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Immunotherapy research is still in the early and experimental stages for other cancers and diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and ALS. Across treatments and conditions, only \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29394327/\">14% of drugs in clinical trials\u003c/a> ever reach FDA approval. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Despite the speculative nature of this early-stage research, caregiver Viva Mogi said she will vote for Proposition 38 for the hope it offers. Mogi put her own life and career on hold to care for her mother, who was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s ten years ago. At the time, doctors told them there was no cure and not enough medications to help.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Despite the speculative nature of this early-stage research, caregiver Viva Mogi said she will vote for Proposition 38 for the hope it offers. Mogi put her own life and career on hold to care for her mother, who was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s ten years ago. At the time, doctors told them there was no cure and not enough medications to help.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“They wished us luck,” Mogi said. Looking ahead to her own potential diagnosis and decline from the disease, she said, “I don’t ever want to go through this or put my husband through this.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“They wished us luck,” Mogi said. Looking ahead to her own potential diagnosis and decline from the disease, she said, “I don’t ever want to go through this or put my husband through this.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002388\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Viva Mogi, a supporter of Proposition 38, is a full-time caretaker for her mother who has Alzheimer’s. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002388\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Viva Mogi, a supporter of Proposition 38, is a full-time caretaker for her mother who has Alzheimer’s. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But with state taxpayers on the hook for $4 billion in interest payments on top of the $8.4 billion bond, other patients say the debt the state would incur from supporting Proposition 38 is not worth the hope, especially in light of California’s other long-term obligations and deficits.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But with state taxpayers on the hook for $4 billion in interest payments on top of the $8.4 billion bond, other patients say the debt the state would incur from supporting Proposition 38 is not worth the hope, especially in light of California’s other long-term obligations and deficits.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Cancer survivor, Dan Carson is one of several retired financial analysts from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office who broke a long tradition of nonpartisan silence to speak out against the measure.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Cancer survivor, Dan Carson is one of several retired financial analysts from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office who broke a long tradition of nonpartisan silence to speak out against the measure.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Carson ran the health section of the LAO when it was tasked with evaluating the $3 billion \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1970180/proposition-14-with-handful-of-cures-calif-stem-cell-agency-has-mixed-record-will-voters-pony-up-another-5-5-billion\">stem cell bond initiative\u003c/a> in 2004 known as Proposition 71. The measure was pitched to voters as a protest against the George W. Bush administration’s abandonment of stem cell research on religious grounds. Its backers said California would become a new hub for stem cell discoveries and promised the state would receive a windfall of royalty payments to pay back the bond and interest. But the money never materialized, with the state receiving just $16 million of the $6 billion it was promised, Carson said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Carson ran the health section of the LAO when it was tasked with evaluating the $3 billion \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1970180/proposition-14-with-handful-of-cures-calif-stem-cell-agency-has-mixed-record-will-voters-pony-up-another-5-5-billion\">stem cell bond initiative\u003c/a> in 2004 known as Proposition 71. The measure was pitched to voters as a protest against the George W. Bush administration’s abandonment of stem cell research on religious grounds. Its backers said California would become a new hub for stem cell discoveries and promised the state would receive a windfall of royalty payments to pay back the bond and interest. But the money never materialized, with the state receiving just $16 million of the $6 billion it was promised, Carson said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Similarly, Proposition 38 backers say it will be cost neutral. Provisions in the measure would require 10% of any licensing fees derived from immunotherapy treatment discoveries be paid back to the state, and that such treatments be made available to Californians at a 20% discount.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Similarly, Proposition 38 backers say it will be cost neutral. Provisions in the measure would require 10% of any licensing fees derived from immunotherapy treatment discoveries be paid back to the state, and that such treatments be made available to Californians at a 20% discount.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Once again, we’re being promised in this initiative and by its advocates that it will ‘pay for itself with no net cost to the state or taxpayers,’” Carson said. “I’m here to tell you that after reviewing the fine print of this measure, that won’t happen. Not even close.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Once again, we’re being promised in this initiative and by its advocates that it will ‘pay for itself with no net cost to the state or taxpayers,’” Carson said. “I’m here to tell you that after reviewing the fine print of this measure, that won’t happen. Not even close.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002387\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, works out on an elliptical trainer in her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002387\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, works out on an elliptical trainer in her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>When O’Malley attended her regular boxing and rock climbing classes for people with Parkinson’s — currently, exercise is the top therapy proven to slow the progression of the disease — other students approached her with questions about Proposition 38 because of her experience at the LAO. Should they vote for it? they asked.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>When O’Malley attended her regular boxing and rock climbing classes for people with Parkinson’s — currently, exercise is the top therapy proven to slow the progression of the disease — other students approached her with questions about Proposition 38 because of her experience at the LAO. Should they vote for it? they asked.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re all desperate for a cure, or at least a treatment,” O’Malley said. “And the disappointing thing to tell them is, ‘No, this measure doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.’”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’re all desperate for a cure, or at least a treatment,” O’Malley said. “And the disappointing thing to tell them is, ‘No, this measure doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.’”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The campaign in favor of Proposition 38 is being financed by philanthropist Gary Michelson, who also happens to be a co-founder and chair of the brand new \u003ca href=\"https://www.calimmunology.org/\">California Institute for Immunology & Immunotherapy\u003c/a> at UCLA, which, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2026/07/proposition-38-california/\">according to the ballot measure’s criteria\u003c/a>, stands to receive half the bond money directly, then help oversee the distribution of the other half in research grants to nonprofits. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The campaign in favor of Proposition 38 is being financed by philanthropist Gary Michelson, who also happens to be a co-founder and chair of the brand new \u003ca href=\"https://www.calimmunology.org/\">California Institute for Immunology & Immunotherapy\u003c/a> at UCLA, which, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2026/07/proposition-38-california/\">according to the ballot measure’s criteria\u003c/a>, stands to receive half the bond money directly, then help oversee the distribution of the other half in research grants to nonprofits. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The measure would also exempt this institute from complying with a series of state transparency laws, including public records act requests and open meetings, O’Malley said, meaning taxpayers won’t have a way of knowing if their money is being spent wisely.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The measure would also exempt this institute from complying with a series of state transparency laws, including public records act requests and open meetings, O’Malley said, meaning taxpayers won’t have a way of knowing if their money is being spent wisely.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002386\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, rests in her backyard after exercising on an elliptical trainer at her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002386\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, rests in her backyard after exercising on an elliptical trainer at her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This measure hijacks the initiative process to steer public funds to a billionaire’s philanthropic project and then hides its tracks by waiving all the usual laws to promote governmental transparency,” she said. “This one is so bad and supposedly being done to help people like me, I felt a moral obligation to speak out.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“This measure hijacks the initiative process to steer public funds to a billionaire’s philanthropic project and then hides its tracks by waiving all the usual laws to promote governmental transparency,” she said. “This one is so bad and supposedly being done to help people like me, I felt a moral obligation to speak out.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If the state of California wants to be a center of scientific research, there are better ways to do it, said Judy Heiman, another former LAO analyst. Medical research grants should be subject to an open, competitive bidding process; they should be awarded based on scientific merit and public health need, not what’s popular at the ballot box. And they should undergo independent review before more funds are disbursed.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If the state of California wants to be a center of scientific research, there are better ways to do it, said Judy Heiman, another former LAO analyst. Medical research grants should be subject to an open, competitive bidding process; they should be awarded based on scientific merit and public health need, not what’s popular at the ballot box. And they should undergo independent review before more funds are disbursed.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Prop. 38 fails these basic tests,” Heiman said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Prop. 38 fails these basic tests,” Heiman said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In fact, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102760/7-5b-california-science-agency-plan-free-from-trumps-influence-will-go-to-voters\">another bond measure\u003c/a> that includes these parameters and safeguards will be on the ballot in March 2028, she pointed out. This research fund, borne from months of democratic debate and negotiation in the state legislature, is intended for a wider variety of research, including biomedical, behavioral health, and climate.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In fact, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102760/7-5b-california-science-agency-plan-free-from-trumps-influence-will-go-to-voters\">another bond measure\u003c/a> that includes these parameters and safeguards will be on the ballot in March 2028, she pointed out. This research fund, borne from months of democratic debate and negotiation in the state legislature, is intended for a wider variety of research, including biomedical, behavioral health, and climate.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“There’s a legitimate argument about whether California should add billions of dollars in medical research spending to its already substantial debt burden,” Heiman said. “Scientific merit, not institutional favoritism, should drive where the money goes.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“There’s a legitimate argument about whether California should add billions of dollars in medical research spending to its already substantial debt burden,” Heiman said. “Scientific merit, not institutional favoritism, should drive where the money goes.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Proposition 38 would allow California to borrow $8.4 billion to fund immunotherapy research. But patients are divided over whether it would actually benefit them.",
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"title": "California Cancer Patients Disagree Over Whether Proposition 38 Will Help Them | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cancer patients who say their lives were saved by innovations in immunotherapy treatments are among the most vocal proponents of \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102150/prop-38-borrows-8-4-billion-to-fund-immunology-research\">California’s Proposition 38\u003c/a>, arguing the $8.4 billion bond measure to fund immune-system research would save even more lives. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But those who oppose Proposition 38 are also patients, who say their illnesses are being exploited to shill for an initiative that is overly narrow, opaque and expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Don’t approve this measure because you want to help me or other people with Parkinson’s,” said Marianne O’Malley, a former analyst with the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease about eight years ago. “This is the wrong way to go about things.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Backers of Proposition 38 proposed it as a solution to the Trump administration’s attack on science: where federal research funding has become diminished or uncertain, California would step in, issuing bond money to bring stability to promising projects and turn the state into a hub of excellence for immunology and immunotherapy research. But the patients who stand to benefit from such a move are divided over whether Californians should shoulder that burden instead of taxpayers across the US, and if so, whether Proposition 38 is the right way to do it.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I have never thought of biomedical research as something that needs to be centered in a particular location,” said Robert Kaplan, a senior scholar at \u003ca href=\"https://med.stanford.edu/cerc.html\">Stanford\u003c/a> who formerly coordinated research portfolios at the National Institutes of Health and an opponent of Proposition 38. “Proposition 38 money is good for California institutions, but it means that California taxpayers might be taking a disproportionate share of the responsibility for paying for that research.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002389\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-02-KQED-4cbd579e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Laurie Adami, a supporter of Proposition 38, was diagnosed with blood cancer when she was 46. She holds two cancer scans, one before she received immunotherapy treatment (left) and one after (right). (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Blood cancer survivor Laurie Adami is in favor of the measure. She was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma 20 years ago, when she was 46, and her son was in kindergarten. She fought her way through seven different treatments, including grueling rounds of chemotherapy and three experimental trials so she could survive to see him graduate from high school. In 2018, she enrolled in an immunotherapy trial where scientists reengineered Adami’s own immune cells to attack her disease.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Chemotherapy is like napalm — they poison your whole body in the hopes of killing off your cancer,” she said. “This idea of waking up the immune system is a much more elegant way to target cancers.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The therapy she received was called CAR-T. Scientists extracted a sample of Adami’s T-cells and modified them in the lab so they would attach to the specific proteins on her cancer cells. Put another way, T-cells are like the Pac Mans of the immune system, and scientists altered them so they would be hungry specifically for her type of cancer cells, then infused them back into her bloodstream to start eating. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adami received one CAR-T infusion and has been in complete remission ever since.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Why wouldn’t I want more patients to be able to access the type of treatment that finally saved my life?” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adami is just one patient from one clinical trial. Though immunotherapy has improved \u003ca href=\"https://www.cancerresearch.org/blog/cancer-statistics-2026\">survival rates\u003c/a> for certain cancers, including lung, liver, and some types of skin and blood cancers, the treatment does not work for most people: only \u003ca href=\"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/inhealth/about-us/immunotherapy-precision-medicine-action-policy-brief\">15 to 20% of patients\u003c/a> achieve durable results. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immunotherapy research is still in the early and experimental stages for other cancers and diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and ALS. Across treatments and conditions, only \u003ca href=\"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29394327/\">14% of drugs in clinical trials\u003c/a> ever reach FDA approval. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the speculative nature of this early-stage research, caregiver Viva Mogi said she will vote for Proposition 38 for the hope it offers. Mogi put her own life and career on hold to care for her mother, who was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s ten years ago. At the time, doctors told them there was no cure and not enough medications to help.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“They wished us luck,” Mogi said. Looking ahead to her own potential diagnosis and decline from the disease, she said, “I don’t ever want to go through this or put my husband through this.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002388\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261020-PROP-38-01-KQED-27ec75c4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Viva Mogi, a supporter of Proposition 38, is a full-time caretaker for her mother who has Alzheimer’s. (Courtesy of Trenna Travis)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But with state taxpayers on the hook for $4 billion in interest payments on top of the $8.4 billion bond, other patients say the debt the state would incur from supporting Proposition 38 is not worth the hope, especially in light of California’s other long-term obligations and deficits.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cancer survivor, Dan Carson is one of several retired financial analysts from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office who broke a long tradition of nonpartisan silence to speak out against the measure.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carson ran the health section of the LAO when it was tasked with evaluating the $3 billion \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1970180/proposition-14-with-handful-of-cures-calif-stem-cell-agency-has-mixed-record-will-voters-pony-up-another-5-5-billion\">stem cell bond initiative\u003c/a> in 2004 known as Proposition 71. The measure was pitched to voters as a protest against the George W. Bush administration’s abandonment of stem cell research on religious grounds. Its backers said California would become a new hub for stem cell discoveries and promised the state would receive a windfall of royalty payments to pay back the bond and interest. But the money never materialized, with the state receiving just $16 million of the $6 billion it was promised, Carson said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, Proposition 38 backers say it will be cost neutral. Provisions in the measure would require 10% of any licensing fees derived from immunotherapy treatment discoveries be paid back to the state, and that such treatments be made available to Californians at a 20% discount.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Once again, we’re being promised in this initiative and by its advocates that it will ‘pay for itself with no net cost to the state or taxpayers,’” Carson said. “I’m here to tell you that after reviewing the fine print of this measure, that won’t happen. Not even close.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002387\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG52488-KQED-2813b0e4-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, works out on an elliptical trainer in her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease. (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When O’Malley attended her regular boxing and rock climbing classes for people with Parkinson’s — currently, exercise is the top therapy proven to slow the progression of the disease — other students approached her with questions about Proposition 38 because of her experience at the LAO. Should they vote for it? they asked.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We’re all desperate for a cure, or at least a treatment,” O’Malley said. “And the disappointing thing to tell them is, ‘No, this measure doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.’”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The campaign in favor of Proposition 38 is being financed by philanthropist Gary Michelson, who also happens to be a co-founder and chair of the brand new \u003ca href=\"https://www.calimmunology.org/\">California Institute for Immunology & Immunotherapy\u003c/a> at UCLA, which, \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2026/07/proposition-38-california/\">according to the ballot measure’s criteria\u003c/a>, stands to receive half the bond money directly, then help oversee the distribution of the other half in research grants to nonprofits. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The measure would also exempt this institute from complying with a series of state transparency laws, including public records act requests and open meetings, O’Malley said, meaning taxpayers won’t have a way of knowing if their money is being spent wisely.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002386\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/FG_OMALLEY_PARKINSONS_2026_10_19__FG32776-KQED-1addb385-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Marianne O’Malley, who has Parkinson’s disease, rests in her backyard after exercising on an elliptical trainer at her home in Sacramento on Oct. 19, 2026. Exercise is the leading therapy to slow the progress of the disease. (Fred Greaves for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This measure hijacks the initiative process to steer public funds to a billionaire’s philanthropic project and then hides its tracks by waiving all the usual laws to promote governmental transparency,” she said. “This one is so bad and supposedly being done to help people like me, I felt a moral obligation to speak out.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the state of California wants to be a center of scientific research, there are better ways to do it, said Judy Heiman, another former LAO analyst. Medical research grants should be subject to an open, competitive bidding process; they should be awarded based on scientific merit and public health need, not what’s popular at the ballot box. And they should undergo independent review before more funds are disbursed.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Prop. 38 fails these basic tests,” Heiman said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12102760/7-5b-california-science-agency-plan-free-from-trumps-influence-will-go-to-voters\">another bond measure\u003c/a> that includes these parameters and safeguards will be on the ballot in March 2028, she pointed out. This research fund, borne from months of democratic debate and negotiation in the state legislature, is intended for a wider variety of research, including biomedical, behavioral health, and climate.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“There’s a legitimate argument about whether California should add billions of dollars in medical research spending to its already substantial debt burden,” Heiman said. “Scientific merit, not institutional favoritism, should drive where the money goes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "what-is-a-kelvin-wave-how-el-nino-can-raise-west-coast-sea-levels",
"title": "What Is a Kelvin Wave? How El Niño Can Raise West Coast Sea Levels",
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"headTitle": "What Is a Kelvin Wave? How El Niño Can Raise West Coast Sea Levels | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104145/californias-el-nino-winter-could-be-profoundly-unsubtle-scientists-warn\">El Niño\u003c/a>‘s effects are already being felt on the West Coast. Communities are reeling from coastal flooding across Southern California and parts of the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The culprit? In part, scientists say the flooding is due to what they call a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104037/a-perfect-storm-waves-and-tides-could-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But this massive wave isn’t visible like a tsunami or a wave surfers can catch; it moves slowly beneath the ocean’s surface and is one of El Niño’s first effects, which could strengthen to historic intensity this winter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are like the \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">heartbeat of El Niño\u003c/a>,” said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, in a recent post.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause temporary sea level rise of several inches to more than a foot along the California coast and trigger minor flooding on their own. But when that pulse of water combines with high tides, storm-driven surface waves, thermal expansion from El Niño, and rising sea levels from human-caused climate change, flooding can be exacerbated. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">said Mark Merrifield\u003c/a>, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here’s a look into the science behind how Kelvin waves form, their potential impact on the California coast and how the natural phenomenon could flood Bay Area neighborhoods. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What causes Kelvin waves?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. Like an “\u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">underwater freeway\u003c/a>,” Kelvin waves transfer heat from west to east and can stretch thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean, according to NASA.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University, who studies marine extremes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The ocean and the atmosphere are strongly connected, and as the water warms, the atmosphere responds by heating up. Normally, strong trade winds — permanent surface-level air currents — blow from east to west, pushing water across the equatorial Pacific toward Asia. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1981523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Seacliff Pier is seen heavily damaged by a rainstorm in Santa Cruz County, on Jan. 5, 2023. (Gabrielle Lurie/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But as the water warms, the trade winds weaken or reverse as high pressure weakens or breaks down above the tropical Pacific Ocean. When winds change direction, immense amounts of water from the west slosh east, eventually hitting South America and splitting north and south.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That slow-moving ocean pulse is known as a Kelvin wave.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Think of it like a bathtub where you’re pushing water from one end of the bathtub to the other,” said Michael Beck, professor and director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Kelvin wave travels at about 6 miles per hour (or about 150 miles per day) just above a cold layer of deep ocean water. The “disturbance inside the ocean” moves up the coastline, like a wave traveling around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise,” Fournier said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves warm the Pacific Ocean?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>As a Kelvin wave develops, it thickens the warmer surface layer and pushes the deeper, colder layer beneath it, known as the thermocline. This takes place “at depths between 660 and 3,300 feet,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The area that’s just a bit beneath the surface of the water is where you see the greatest change in temperature,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001339\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The coastline in Pacifica on June 15, 2026, where erosion remains an ongoing concern. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This change ultimately confines cold water and disrupts the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, which can warm surface water.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you had water or oil sitting on top of water, the wave is in the interface between oil and water,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer in the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves raise sea levels?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Think of a Kelvin wave as a massive bulge of warm, expanded water. Because it’s warmer, this massive subsurface wave displaces the cold water it pushes aside. As it crawls up the coast, local sea levels can rise from several inches to more than a foot.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But not all the rise felt on the West Coast right now is from a Kelvin wave. The Pacific Ocean is warmer because of the exceptionally strong El Niño event and a separate regional marine heat. Water expands as it warms, and this thermal expansion accounts for roughly an additional 6 to 10 inches of rise.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” said Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels, “but overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This temporary sea level rise occurs on top of an existing rise of about 8 inches along the San Francisco coast since the 1890s due to long-term climate change. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How long do Kelvin waves last?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During an El Niño year, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from weeks to more than a month, depending on the wave’s scale and other ocean and atmosphere conditions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It takes a long time for the sea state to relax back to where it wants to be,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can Kelvin waves cause flooding?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause flooding on their own, but other factors exacerbate the risk. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Beck said background sea level rise, thermal expansion during an El Niño, high tides, and storm surge can amplify flooding or erosion along the coastline. But he said storms “are the real kicker” for the California shoreline and can cause coastal and inland flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Winter storms come straight at us with really huge waves,” Beck said. “If they’re riding fifteen inches to twenty inches [of temporarily higher tides] when we’ve got full El Niño warming and depending upon the size of the Kelvin wave, that’s a lot of water and can hit in exactly the places where you don’t want to hit, like on roads or houses.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002358\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, winter tides that are the highest of the year, and some places can experience even more inundation, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding can occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño-driven floodwaters can affect major infrastructure, homes, roads and airports. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1348\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-1536x1035.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Roads may be closed due to the low-lying areas being inundated with water, and if you do come around them, don’t drive around them because you don’t know the depths of the water,” said Karleisa Rogacheski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The potentially dangerous conditions may expose weaknesses in flood protections along California’s coastlines, said Kristina Hill, a professor in UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design who studies sea level rise. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael in Marin County, have a patchwork of private levees. El Niño-fueled winters can test those barriers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the San Francisco seawall,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why are they called Kelvin waves? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Michael Jacox, a research oceanographer with the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, said in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/kelvin-waves-explained\">post\u003c/a> that Kelvin waves “are named after the prominent scientist, Lord Kelvin, who first described the unique wave phenomena in 1879.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He also noted that “Kelvin waves are nothing new, and are a key part of El Niño events.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104145/californias-el-nino-winter-could-be-profoundly-unsubtle-scientists-warn\">El Niño\u003c/a>‘s effects are already being felt on the West Coast. Communities are reeling from coastal flooding across Southern California and parts of the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104145/californias-el-nino-winter-could-be-profoundly-unsubtle-scientists-warn\">El Niño\u003c/a>‘s effects are already being felt on the West Coast. Communities are reeling from coastal flooding across Southern California and parts of the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The culprit? In part, scientists say the flooding is due to what they call a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104037/a-perfect-storm-waves-and-tides-could-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The culprit? In part, scientists say the flooding is due to what they call a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104037/a-perfect-storm-waves-and-tides-could-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But this massive wave isn’t visible like a tsunami or a wave surfers can catch; it moves slowly beneath the ocean’s surface and is one of El Niño’s first effects, which could strengthen to historic intensity this winter. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>But this massive wave isn’t visible like a tsunami or a wave surfers can catch; it moves slowly beneath the ocean’s surface and is one of El Niño’s first effects, which could strengthen to historic intensity this winter. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are like the \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">heartbeat of El Niño\u003c/a>,” said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, in a recent post.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are like the \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">heartbeat of El Niño\u003c/a>,” said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, in a recent post.\u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause temporary sea level rise of several inches to more than a foot along the California coast and trigger minor flooding on their own. But when that pulse of water combines with high tides, storm-driven surface waves, thermal expansion from El Niño, and rising sea levels from human-caused climate change, flooding can be exacerbated. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause temporary sea level rise of several inches to more than a foot along the California coast and trigger minor flooding on their own. But when that pulse of water combines with high tides, storm-driven surface waves, thermal expansion from El Niño, and rising sea levels from human-caused climate change, flooding can be exacerbated. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">said Mark Merrifield\u003c/a>, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">said Mark Merrifield\u003c/a>, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Here’s a look into the science behind how Kelvin waves form, their potential impact on the California coast and how the natural phenomenon could flood Bay Area neighborhoods. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>Here’s a look into the science behind how Kelvin waves form, their potential impact on the California coast and how the natural phenomenon could flood Bay Area neighborhoods. \u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "What causes Kelvin waves?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What causes Kelvin waves?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What causes Kelvin waves?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. Like an “\u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">underwater freeway\u003c/a>,” Kelvin waves transfer heat from west to east and can stretch thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean, according to NASA.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. Like an “\u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">underwater freeway\u003c/a>,” Kelvin waves transfer heat from west to east and can stretch thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean, according to NASA.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University, who studies marine extremes.\u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University, who studies marine extremes.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The ocean and the atmosphere are strongly connected, and as the water warms, the atmosphere responds by heating up. Normally, strong trade winds — permanent surface-level air currents — blow from east to west, pushing water across the equatorial Pacific toward Asia. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The ocean and the atmosphere are strongly connected, and as the water warms, the atmosphere responds by heating up. Normally, strong trade winds — permanent surface-level air currents — blow from east to west, pushing water across the equatorial Pacific toward Asia. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1981523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Seacliff Pier is seen heavily damaged by a rainstorm in Santa Cruz County, on Jan. 5, 2023.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gabrielle Lurie/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1981523\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Seacliff Pier is seen heavily damaged by a rainstorm in Santa Cruz County, on Jan. 5, 2023.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gabrielle Lurie/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But as the water warms, the trade winds weaken or reverse as high pressure weakens or breaks down above the tropical Pacific Ocean. When winds change direction, immense amounts of water from the west slosh east, eventually hitting South America and splitting north and south.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But as the water warms, the trade winds weaken or reverse as high pressure weakens or breaks down above the tropical Pacific Ocean. When winds change direction, immense amounts of water from the west slosh east, eventually hitting South America and splitting north and south.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That slow-moving ocean pulse is known as a Kelvin wave.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That slow-moving ocean pulse is known as a Kelvin wave.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Think of it like a bathtub where you’re pushing water from one end of the bathtub to the other,” said Michael Beck, professor and director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Think of it like a bathtub where you’re pushing water from one end of the bathtub to the other,” said Michael Beck, professor and director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The Kelvin wave travels at about 6 miles per hour (or about 150 miles per day) just above a cold layer of deep ocean water. The “disturbance inside the ocean” moves up the coastline, like a wave traveling around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The Kelvin wave travels at about 6 miles per hour (or about 150 miles per day) just above a cold layer of deep ocean water. The “disturbance inside the ocean” moves up the coastline, like a wave traveling around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise,” Fournier said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise,” Fournier said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "How do Kelvin waves warm the Pacific Ocean?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves warm the Pacific Ocean?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves warm the Pacific Ocean?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As a Kelvin wave develops, it thickens the warmer surface layer and pushes the deeper, colder layer beneath it, known as the thermocline. This takes place “at depths between 660 and 3,300 feet,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>As a Kelvin wave develops, it thickens the warmer surface layer and pushes the deeper, colder layer beneath it, known as the thermocline. This takes place “at depths between 660 and 3,300 feet,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The area that’s just a bit beneath the surface of the water is where you see the greatest change in temperature,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n",
"innerContent": [
"\n\u003cp>“The area that’s just a bit beneath the surface of the water is where you see the greatest change in temperature,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001339\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The coastline in Pacifica on June 15, 2026, where erosion remains an ongoing concern.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001339\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The coastline in Pacifica on June 15, 2026, where erosion remains an ongoing concern.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This change ultimately confines cold water and disrupts the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, which can warm surface water.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This change ultimately confines cold water and disrupts the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, which can warm surface water.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you had water or oil sitting on top of water, the wave is in the interface between oil and water,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer in the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If you had water or oil sitting on top of water, the wave is in the interface between oil and water,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer in the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n"
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"blockName": "core/heading",
"attrs": {
"text": "How do Kelvin waves raise sea levels?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves raise sea levels?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves raise sea levels?\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Think of a Kelvin wave as a massive bulge of warm, expanded water. Because it’s warmer, this massive subsurface wave displaces the cold water it pushes aside. As it crawls up the coast, local sea levels can rise from several inches to more than a foot.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Think of a Kelvin wave as a massive bulge of warm, expanded water. Because it’s warmer, this massive subsurface wave displaces the cold water it pushes aside. As it crawls up the coast, local sea levels can rise from several inches to more than a foot.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But not all the rise felt on the West Coast right now is from a Kelvin wave. The Pacific Ocean is warmer because of the exceptionally strong El Niño event and a separate regional marine heat. Water expands as it warms, and this thermal expansion accounts for roughly an additional 6 to 10 inches of rise.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But not all the rise felt on the West Coast right now is from a Kelvin wave. The Pacific Ocean is warmer because of the exceptionally strong El Niño event and a separate regional marine heat. Water expands as it warms, and this thermal expansion accounts for roughly an additional 6 to 10 inches of rise.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” said Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels, “but overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” said Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels, “but overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This temporary sea level rise occurs on top of an existing rise of about 8 inches along the San Francisco coast since the 1890s due to long-term climate change. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This temporary sea level rise occurs on top of an existing rise of about 8 inches along the San Francisco coast since the 1890s due to long-term climate change. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How long do Kelvin waves last?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>During an El Niño year, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from weeks to more than a month, depending on the wave’s scale and other ocean and atmosphere conditions.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>During an El Niño year, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from weeks to more than a month, depending on the wave’s scale and other ocean and atmosphere conditions.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It takes a long time for the sea state to relax back to where it wants to be,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It takes a long time for the sea state to relax back to where it wants to be,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "Can Kelvin waves cause flooding?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause flooding on their own, but other factors exacerbate the risk. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Beck said background sea level rise, thermal expansion during an El Niño, high tides, and storm surge can amplify flooding or erosion along the coastline. But he said storms “are the real kicker” for the California shoreline and can cause coastal and inland flooding.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Beck said background sea level rise, thermal expansion during an El Niño, high tides, and storm surge can amplify flooding or erosion along the coastline. But he said storms “are the real kicker” for the California shoreline and can cause coastal and inland flooding.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Winter storms come straight at us with really huge waves,” Beck said. “If they’re riding fifteen inches to twenty inches [of temporarily higher tides] when we’ve got full El Niño warming and depending upon the size of the Kelvin wave, that’s a lot of water and can hit in exactly the places where you don’t want to hit, like on roads or houses.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Winter storms come straight at us with really huge waves,” Beck said. “If they’re riding fifteen inches to twenty inches [of temporarily higher tides] when we’ve got full El Niño warming and depending upon the size of the Kelvin wave, that’s a lot of water and can hit in exactly the places where you don’t want to hit, like on roads or houses.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002358\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, winter tides that are the highest of the year, and some places can experience even more inundation, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, winter tides that are the highest of the year, and some places can experience even more inundation, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding can occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding can occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño-driven floodwaters can affect major infrastructure, homes, roads and airports. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>El Niño-driven floodwaters can affect major infrastructure, homes, roads and airports. \u003c/p>\n"
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera, California. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Roads may be closed due to the low-lying areas being inundated with water, and if you do come around them, don’t drive around them because you don’t know the depths of the water,” said Karleisa Rogacheski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Roads may be closed due to the low-lying areas being inundated with water, and if you do come around them, don’t drive around them because you don’t know the depths of the water,” said Karleisa Rogacheski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The potentially dangerous conditions may expose weaknesses in flood protections along California’s coastlines, said Kristina Hill, a professor in UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design who studies sea level rise. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The potentially dangerous conditions may expose weaknesses in flood protections along California’s coastlines, said Kristina Hill, a professor in UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design who studies sea level rise. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael in Marin County, have a patchwork of private levees. El Niño-fueled winters can test those barriers. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael in Marin County, have a patchwork of private levees. El Niño-fueled winters can test those barriers. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the San Francisco seawall,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the San Francisco seawall,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Michael Jacox, a research oceanographer with the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, said in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/kelvin-waves-explained\">post\u003c/a> that Kelvin waves “are named after the prominent scientist, Lord Kelvin, who first described the unique wave phenomena in 1879.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Michael Jacox, a research oceanographer with the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, said in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/kelvin-waves-explained\">post\u003c/a> that Kelvin waves “are named after the prominent scientist, Lord Kelvin, who first described the unique wave phenomena in 1879.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Not a Tsunami or a surfable wave, El Niño’s invisible Kelvin waves can push tides up along the Bay Area shoreline, increasing flood risk. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104145/californias-el-nino-winter-could-be-profoundly-unsubtle-scientists-warn\">El Niño\u003c/a>‘s effects are already being felt on the West Coast. Communities are reeling from coastal flooding across Southern California and parts of the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The culprit? In part, scientists say the flooding is due to what they call a \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12104037/a-perfect-storm-waves-and-tides-could-flood-bay-area-shorelines-this-week\">Kelvin wave\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But this massive wave isn’t visible like a tsunami or a wave surfers can catch; it moves slowly beneath the ocean’s surface and is one of El Niño’s first effects, which could strengthen to historic intensity this winter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are like the \u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">heartbeat of El Niño\u003c/a>,” said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, in a recent post.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001619\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/260807-El-Nino-Worst-01-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Water floods the Embarcadero in San Francisco on March 17, 2026. (Courtesy of The Exploratorium)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause temporary sea level rise of several inches to more than a foot along the California coast and trigger minor flooding on their own. But when that pulse of water combines with high tides, storm-driven surface waves, thermal expansion from El Niño, and rising sea levels from human-caused climate change, flooding can be exacerbated. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state,” \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmmXUkRp6-g\">said Mark Merrifield\u003c/a>, director of the Scripps Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. “It also is a sobering look at what we could expect with climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here’s a look into the science behind how Kelvin waves form, their potential impact on the California coast and how the natural phenomenon could flood Bay Area neighborhoods. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What causes Kelvin waves?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. Like an “\u003ca href=\"https://science.nasa.gov/earth/nasa-satellites-observe-historic-2026-el-nino/\">underwater freeway\u003c/a>,” Kelvin waves transfer heat from west to east and can stretch thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean, according to NASA.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University, who studies marine extremes.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The ocean and the atmosphere are strongly connected, and as the water warms, the atmosphere responds by heating up. Normally, strong trade winds — permanent surface-level air currents — blow from east to west, pushing water across the equatorial Pacific toward Asia. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1981523\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/02/RS62627__qut-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Seacliff Pier is seen heavily damaged by a rainstorm in Santa Cruz County, on Jan. 5, 2023. (Gabrielle Lurie/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But as the water warms, the trade winds weaken or reverse as high pressure weakens or breaks down above the tropical Pacific Ocean. When winds change direction, immense amounts of water from the west slosh east, eventually hitting South America and splitting north and south.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That slow-moving ocean pulse is known as a Kelvin wave.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Think of it like a bathtub where you’re pushing water from one end of the bathtub to the other,” said Michael Beck, professor and director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Kelvin wave travels at about 6 miles per hour (or about 150 miles per day) just above a cold layer of deep ocean water. The “disturbance inside the ocean” moves up the coastline, like a wave traveling around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise,” Fournier said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves warm the Pacific Ocean?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>As a Kelvin wave develops, it thickens the warmer surface layer and pushes the deeper, colder layer beneath it, known as the thermocline. This takes place “at depths between 660 and 3,300 feet,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The area that’s just a bit beneath the surface of the water is where you see the greatest change in temperature,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001339\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/06/260615-PACIFICAWAVE-12-BL-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The coastline in Pacifica on June 15, 2026, where erosion remains an ongoing concern. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This change ultimately confines cold water and disrupts the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, which can warm surface water.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“If you had water or oil sitting on top of water, the wave is in the interface between oil and water,” said Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer in the U.S. Geological Survey.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How do Kelvin waves raise sea levels?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Think of a Kelvin wave as a massive bulge of warm, expanded water. Because it’s warmer, this massive subsurface wave displaces the cold water it pushes aside. As it crawls up the coast, local sea levels can rise from several inches to more than a foot.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But not all the rise felt on the West Coast right now is from a Kelvin wave. The Pacific Ocean is warmer because of the exceptionally strong El Niño event and a separate regional marine heat. Water expands as it warms, and this thermal expansion accounts for roughly an additional 6 to 10 inches of rise.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“During El Niño years the water levels are often higher,” said Melissa Lunden, a climate scientist-in-residence at the Exploratorium in San Francisco. Not every El Niño results in higher-than-average water levels, “but overall, the trend is increasing over the decades.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>This temporary sea level rise occurs on top of an existing rise of about 8 inches along the San Francisco coast since the 1890s due to long-term climate change. State scientists project another foot or more by 2050. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How long do Kelvin waves last?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During an El Niño year, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from weeks to more than a month, depending on the wave’s scale and other ocean and atmosphere conditions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It takes a long time for the sea state to relax back to where it wants to be,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can Kelvin waves cause flooding?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kelvin waves can cause flooding on their own, but other factors exacerbate the risk. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Beck said background sea level rise, thermal expansion during an El Niño, high tides, and storm surge can amplify flooding or erosion along the coastline. But he said storms “are the real kicker” for the California shoreline and can cause coastal and inland flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Winter storms come straight at us with really huge waves,” Beck said. “If they’re riding fifteen inches to twenty inches [of temporarily higher tides] when we’ve got full El Niño warming and depending upon the size of the Kelvin wave, that’s a lot of water and can hit in exactly the places where you don’t want to hit, like on roads or houses.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002358\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/061526Flooding_GH_011_qed-43703a5e-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Plastic sheeting and sandbags are placed outside a home along Golden Hind Passage in Corte Madera on June 15, 2026, as residents prepare for potential king tide flooding. (Gustavo Hernandez/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Add natural king tides, winter tides that are the highest of the year, and some places can experience even more inundation, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We could get all of those stacked at once,” Swain said, noting that flooding can occur even if only a few of the potential impacts occur in tandem. This short-term flooding “could be comparable to, or greater than, the worst coastal flooding on record in the San Francisco Bay region,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño-driven floodwaters can affect major infrastructure, homes, roads and airports. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1348\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-1536x1035.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Roads may be closed due to the low-lying areas being inundated with water, and if you do come around them, don’t drive around them because you don’t know the depths of the water,” said Karleisa Rogacheski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The potentially dangerous conditions may expose weaknesses in flood protections along California’s coastlines, said Kristina Hill, a professor in UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design who studies sea level rise. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Many cities, including San Francisco, have treated their waterfronts like “a medieval town with a wall around them,” Hill said. Others, like San Rafael in Marin County, have a patchwork of private levees. El Niño-fueled winters can test those barriers. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’ve been trying to fill the cracks in the bathtub by putting out little informal levees, and then occasionally a very big project like the San Francisco seawall,” Hill said. “We may see some of those informal things fail in surprising and important ways.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why are they called Kelvin waves? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Michael Jacox, a research oceanographer with the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, said in a \u003ca href=\"https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/kelvin-waves-explained\">post\u003c/a> that Kelvin waves “are named after the prominent scientist, Lord Kelvin, who first described the unique wave phenomena in 1879.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He also noted that “Kelvin waves are nothing new, and are a key part of El Niño events.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"title": "Stanford Scientists Find New Way to Revive Bleached Coral",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Researchers at \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/stanford-university\">Stanford University\u003c/a> have seen for the first time starving, struggling corals return to colorful, vibrant life within a matter of weeks by being placed in contact with healthy clones, genetically identical copies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This was shocking, stunning,” said Danny Collins, lead author of a study \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aeh1580\">published Monday\u003c/a>\u003cem>.\u003c/em> “We were blown away [to] actually watch the healthy coral restore the color of the bleached corals essentially right before our eyes.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Color returned within days, with full recovery occurring in just seven weeks — the fastest documented recovery to date. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was so much faster and more intense than we ever expected,” said Collins, a Ph.D. student at the \u003ca href=\"https://sustainability.stanford.edu/\">Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1451\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002332\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-160x116.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-768x557.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-1536x1114.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Lead author Danny Collins is a Ph.D. student at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>The results, seen in aquarium-sourced corals in a laboratory setting at the \u003ca href=\"https://hopkinsmarinestation.stanford.edu/\">Hopkins Marine Station\u003c/a> in Monterey County, could lead to faster and more complete recovery for wild corals suffering bleaching.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When ocean waters warm too fast, corals — a type of animal known to researchers as “cnidarians” — kick out helpful algae that live within their cells. This can kill the coral. Bleaching intensifies as the planet warms, threatening reefs around the globe.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Reefs are critical habitats, making up just 0.01% of the ocean floor; they support \u003ca href=\"https://www.wri.org/insights/decoding-coral-reefs\">a quarter of all marine life\u003c/a>. They help economies thrive and protect against flooding and coastal erosion. The Coral Reef Alliance predicts within the next 30 years that \u003ca href=\"https://coral.org/coral-reefs-101/global-threats/\">90% of reefs\u003c/a> will experience severe annual bleaching. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The exciting thing about this work, Collins said, “is the demonstration that these bleached corals are not a lost cause, but actually have a remarkable potential to be recovered.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A serendipitous mishap leads to discovery\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers knew that corals could become sick by touching objects holding dangerous bacteria. Last year, Collins looked at how corals catch disease when plastic waste settles on them. The plastic can harbor disease-causing bacteria and infect the coral.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We were curious if we could harness that mechanism of contact, but instead of introducing bad guys that could cause disease, we could introduce good guys,” Collins said, “such as these beneficial algae that [healthy] corals harbor.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Around the same time, Steve Palumbi, a professor in marine sciences at Stanford and study coauthor, saw in his lab that a sample colony had tipped over in a tank so that a healthy coral and a bleached one were touching each other. Where they touched, color returned to the sick coral.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"2420\" data-id=\"2002334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002334\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-160x194.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-768x929.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-1269x1536.jpg 1269w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-1693x2048.jpg 1693w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A vibrant and healthy coral colony stands next to its starving identical twin. Corals are animals living symbiotically with photosynthetic algae in their tissues. When a coral is stressed by high heat, they expel these algae in a response known as bleaching. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1978\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"2002333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-scaled.jpg 1978w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-160x207.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-768x994.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-1187x1536.jpg 1187w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-1583x2048.jpg 1583w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1978px) 100vw, 1978px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A healthy coral colony creates a nutrient bridge by fusing tissue with a bleached clone. Stanford researchers saw the fastest recorded coral recovery yet documented using this technique to revive bleached corals. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So they tested it with other samples and were delighted with the results. The corals fused together, creating a nutrient bridge made of tissue, allowing the healthy individual to send over the life-giving, helpful algae.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“And within just a few weeks you get complete recovery,” Collins said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They found the corals did not need to touch the entire time; just a brief period was needed, and the sick coral could quickly take it from there.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Next steps already underway\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Creating genetic coral clones and placing them in contact with bleached twins isn’t a feasible recovery route for wild coral; it would take too much work to create a genetically identical, healthy copy of every coral in advance of a bleaching event. But the research does point the way forward for other restoration approaches.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The key finding is that these bleached corals have remarkable capacity for rapid recovery that was not fully appreciated,” Collins said. “And that if you can get healthy algae into those bleached coral by any means necessary, they can recover at incredible rates.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Scientists have documented bleached corals recovering in the field. But the process can take years, and many corals never recover or never recover fully. He’s excited to try a new avenue that is unexplored: “We hope these inspire a new set of interventions for coral reef restoration for recovering bleached corals.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He and colleagues are now at work finding ways to extract algae, replicate them in a lab, and spread them to bleached corals. He hopes to test the method at field sites in Hawaii and Palau in the coming months to years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The results, seen in aquarium-sourced corals in a laboratory setting at the \u003ca href=\"https://hopkinsmarinestation.stanford.edu/\">Hopkins Marine Station\u003c/a> in Monterey County, could lead to faster and more complete recovery for wild corals suffering bleaching.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>When ocean waters warm too fast, corals — a type of animal known to researchers as “cnidarians” — kick out helpful algae that live within their cells. This can kill the coral. Bleaching intensifies as the planet warms, threatening reefs around the globe.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Reefs are critical habitats, making up just 0.01% of the ocean floor; they support \u003ca href=\"https://www.wri.org/insights/decoding-coral-reefs\">a quarter of all marine life\u003c/a>. They help economies thrive and protect against flooding and coastal erosion. The Coral Reef Alliance predicts within the next 30 years that \u003ca href=\"https://coral.org/coral-reefs-101/global-threats/\">90% of reefs\u003c/a> will experience severe annual bleaching. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The exciting thing about this work, Collins said, “is the demonstration that these bleached corals are not a lost cause, but actually have a remarkable potential to be recovered.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers knew that corals could become sick by touching objects holding dangerous bacteria. Last year, Collins looked at how corals catch disease when plastic waste settles on them. The plastic can harbor disease-causing bacteria and infect the coral.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We were curious if we could harness that mechanism of contact, but instead of introducing bad guys that could cause disease, we could introduce good guys,” Collins said, “such as these beneficial algae that [healthy] corals harbor.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Around the same time, Steve Palumbi, a professor in marine sciences at Stanford and study coauthor, saw in his lab that a sample colony had tipped over in a tank so that a healthy coral and a bleached one were touching each other. Where they touched, color returned to the sick coral.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002334\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A vibrant and healthy coral colony stands next to its starving identical twin. Corals are animals living symbiotically with photosynthetic algae in their tissues. When a coral is stressed by high heat, they expel these algae in a response known as bleaching.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>So they tested it with other samples and were delighted with the results. The corals fused together, creating a nutrient bridge made of tissue, allowing the healthy individual to send over the life-giving, helpful algae.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“And within just a few weeks you get complete recovery,” Collins said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They found the corals did not need to touch the entire time; just a brief period was needed, and the sick coral could quickly take it from there.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Creating genetic coral clones and placing them in contact with bleached twins isn’t a feasible recovery route for wild coral; it would take too much work to create a genetically identical, healthy copy of every coral in advance of a bleaching event. But the research does point the way forward for other restoration approaches.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Creating genetic coral clones and placing them in contact with bleached twins isn’t a feasible recovery route for wild coral; it would take too much work to create a genetically identical, healthy copy of every coral in advance of a bleaching event. But the research does point the way forward for other restoration approaches.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The key finding is that these bleached corals have remarkable capacity for rapid recovery that was not fully appreciated,” Collins said. “And that if you can get healthy algae into those bleached coral by any means necessary, they can recover at incredible rates.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Scientists have documented bleached corals recovering in the field. But the process can take years, and many corals never recover or never recover fully. He’s excited to try a new avenue that is unexplored: “We hope these inspire a new set of interventions for coral reef restoration for recovering bleached corals.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>He and colleagues are now at work finding ways to extract algae, replicate them in a lab, and spread them to bleached corals. He hopes to test the method at field sites in Hawaii and Palau in the coming months to years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Bleached corals have a remarkable ability to recover when put in contact with a healthy clone and beneficial algae, Bay Area researchers announced in a study published Monday.",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Researchers at \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/stanford-university\">Stanford University\u003c/a> have seen for the first time starving, struggling corals return to colorful, vibrant life within a matter of weeks by being placed in contact with healthy clones, genetically identical copies.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This was shocking, stunning,” said Danny Collins, lead author of a study \u003ca href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aeh1580\">published Monday\u003c/a>\u003cem>.\u003c/em> “We were blown away [to] actually watch the healthy coral restore the color of the bleached corals essentially right before our eyes.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Color returned within days, with full recovery occurring in just seven weeks — the fastest documented recovery to date. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It was so much faster and more intense than we ever expected,” said Collins, a Ph.D. student at the \u003ca href=\"https://sustainability.stanford.edu/\">Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1451\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002332\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-160x116.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-768x557.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral2-f688e9d8-1536x1114.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Lead author Danny Collins is a Ph.D. student at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>The results, seen in aquarium-sourced corals in a laboratory setting at the \u003ca href=\"https://hopkinsmarinestation.stanford.edu/\">Hopkins Marine Station\u003c/a> in Monterey County, could lead to faster and more complete recovery for wild corals suffering bleaching.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When ocean waters warm too fast, corals — a type of animal known to researchers as “cnidarians” — kick out helpful algae that live within their cells. This can kill the coral. Bleaching intensifies as the planet warms, threatening reefs around the globe.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>Reefs are critical habitats, making up just 0.01% of the ocean floor; they support \u003ca href=\"https://www.wri.org/insights/decoding-coral-reefs\">a quarter of all marine life\u003c/a>. They help economies thrive and protect against flooding and coastal erosion. The Coral Reef Alliance predicts within the next 30 years that \u003ca href=\"https://coral.org/coral-reefs-101/global-threats/\">90% of reefs\u003c/a> will experience severe annual bleaching. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The exciting thing about this work, Collins said, “is the demonstration that these bleached corals are not a lost cause, but actually have a remarkable potential to be recovered.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A serendipitous mishap leads to discovery\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers knew that corals could become sick by touching objects holding dangerous bacteria. Last year, Collins looked at how corals catch disease when plastic waste settles on them. The plastic can harbor disease-causing bacteria and infect the coral.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We were curious if we could harness that mechanism of contact, but instead of introducing bad guys that could cause disease, we could introduce good guys,” Collins said, “such as these beneficial algae that [healthy] corals harbor.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Around the same time, Steve Palumbi, a professor in marine sciences at Stanford and study coauthor, saw in his lab that a sample colony had tipped over in a tank so that a healthy coral and a bleached one were touching each other. Where they touched, color returned to the sick coral.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"2420\" data-id=\"2002334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002334\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-160x194.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-768x929.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-1269x1536.jpg 1269w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral4-0f8e49b2-1693x2048.jpg 1693w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A vibrant and healthy coral colony stands next to its starving identical twin. Corals are animals living symbiotically with photosynthetic algae in their tissues. When a coral is stressed by high heat, they expel these algae in a response known as bleaching. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1978\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"2002333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002333\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-scaled.jpg 1978w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-160x207.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-768x994.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-1187x1536.jpg 1187w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/BleachedCoral3-cdf79013-1583x2048.jpg 1583w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1978px) 100vw, 1978px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A healthy coral colony creates a nutrient bridge by fusing tissue with a bleached clone. Stanford researchers saw the fastest recorded coral recovery yet documented using this technique to revive bleached corals. (Courtesy of Dan Griffin/GG Films)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>So they tested it with other samples and were delighted with the results. The corals fused together, creating a nutrient bridge made of tissue, allowing the healthy individual to send over the life-giving, helpful algae.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“And within just a few weeks you get complete recovery,” Collins said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>They found the corals did not need to touch the entire time; just a brief period was needed, and the sick coral could quickly take it from there.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Next steps already underway\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Creating genetic coral clones and placing them in contact with bleached twins isn’t a feasible recovery route for wild coral; it would take too much work to create a genetically identical, healthy copy of every coral in advance of a bleaching event. But the research does point the way forward for other restoration approaches.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The key finding is that these bleached corals have remarkable capacity for rapid recovery that was not fully appreciated,” Collins said. “And that if you can get healthy algae into those bleached coral by any means necessary, they can recover at incredible rates.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Scientists have documented bleached corals recovering in the field. But the process can take years, and many corals never recover or never recover fully. He’s excited to try a new avenue that is unexplored: “We hope these inspire a new set of interventions for coral reef restoration for recovering bleached corals.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>He and colleagues are now at work finding ways to extract algae, replicate them in a lab, and spread them to bleached corals. He hopes to test the method at field sites in Hawaii and Palau in the coming months to years.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "could-a-public-wildfire-insurance-plan-work-in-california",
"title": "Could a Public Wildfire Insurance Plan Work in California?",
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"headTitle": "Could a Public Wildfire Insurance Plan Work in California? | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Former \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a> Supervisor Jane Kim’s proposal to create a public, natural disaster insurance program for all is the boldest out-of-the-box idea in the race to become California’s next insurance commissioner.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The consumer advocate and attorney proposed a “guaranteed disaster for all insurance program that is publicly run and nonprofit.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The state would collect some of the premiums that you’re already paying to this industry,” she said. “We would invest those dollars in the market, and then we would use excess capital to actually invest in driving down risk, meaning we would invest in fireproofing and floodproofing communities.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim has pointed to New Zealand and France’s arrangements as potential models. In these countries, the government and private companies share risk in the insurance market. She said she wants to see California’s insurance dollars at work to control the state’s insurance costs. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Could a similar program work here? How would it? KQED spoke with half a dozen experts to take a look at these questions, and many met the idea with skepticism, and also some hints of curiosity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What exactly is Jane Kim proposing?\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim’s campaign released a \u003ca href=\"https://www.janekim.org/policy-brief\">policy document\u003c/a> on the proposal on Oct. 8th. It outlines a vision to have the state cover the cost of rebuilding the average home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The money for this would come from two charges added to a person’s private insurance: one would be based on a home’s wildfire risk, another would be based on the value of the home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The proposal raises the possibility of adding a surcharge on high-value second homes and vacation properties. The program would be mandatory but administered similar to the California Earthquake Authority, which covers earthquake risk in the state.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002300\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Jane Kim, former San Francisco supervisor and candidate for California Insurance Commissioner, speaks with politics reporter Marisa Lagos for Political Breakdown at the KQED offices in San Francisco on Sept. 17, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“From the consumer’s perspective, there’s no difference,” Kim said during an interview on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100390/jane-kims-bold-plan-to-protect-you-when-disaster-strikes\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>. “And when you file a claim, you still file it with the insurance industry. But the state pays it out, and they pay it out quickly and fairly.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>To fund this, Kim said, the program would happen in stages, “and we’d have to figure out how to capitalize it in the beginning so that we could pay out claims in year one if fires happened.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the advantage for the state, she said, is that the profit insurance companies make on this part of policies could be invested in reducing risk.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Public-private insurance partnerships exist in some form in dozens of countries, including England for flood risk and Spain for some risk reduction and emergency response. The U.S. also has a national flood insurance program. And states like Texas and Florida have schemes to socialize some of the costs of home insurance, owing to their frequent hurricanes and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1994224\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Firefighter Nolan Graham sprays water around a scorched garage as the Boyles fire burns in Clearlake on Sept. 8, 2024. (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Each country or state’s arrangement is unique. In New Zealand, a set amount of a homeowner’s property insurance, about 600 New Zealand dollars ($336), goes to the government program that covers seismic risk: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. If a policyholder suffers a loss, they can receive up to 300,000 NZ$ (roughly $170,000). All claim values above that are paid by the insurance company they have coverage with. It only covers seismic hazards.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In France, a surcharge of 20% is added to property insurance policies. Private insurance companies handle claims, but they are reinsured by a public reinsurance company backed by the French state. Spain also operates a public reinsurance and direct insurance program, also funded by mandatory surcharges.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While some California insurance experts believe bold ideas are needed to decrease wildfire risk, most are skeptical of Kim’s idea. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Caution, skepticism, some curiosity, too \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Their concerns overlap: public insurance programs spread out costs but don’t necessarily reduce them; they are often overly generous and fiscally irresponsible because they are set up by politicians who want to be reelected.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Some experts argue that California’s climate-fueled disasters are so expensive and frequent that it would be foolish for the state to take on so much risk, and that California’s market is in the early phases of a recovery and that shocking it with major changes could delay or reverse the progress. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1994257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A home destroyed by the Boyles Fire in Clearlake on Sept. 9, 2024, after the wildfire swept through the area on Sept. 8, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There aren’t a huge number of what most people would consider successful examples of public insurers. They tend to be plagued by problems,” said Michael Wara, wildfire and insurance expert at Stanford. “And the biggest problem is that when you tell a government agency to set the cost of insurance, they almost always set it too low.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that means that taxpayers then must bail out the program. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Ideally, place politicians far away from this process,” said Ilan Noy, an expert in the economics of disasters and climate change at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Noy has studied the New Zealand program extensively and is largely a fan of it. However, he did not think an all-natural-hazard system would work in California, where some of the people at the highest risk are also wealthy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When public-private programs work, it’s because the insurance is being subsidized. But would subsidizing these wealthy homeowners be fair? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If California insurance costs are going up, Noy said, “the only way to make them lower is reduce the risk through public policy. You cannot make the costs, the premiums low if the risk is high because someone ends up paying for it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Other experts stressed that the public-private partnerships could work but must be well-designed. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s literally a design choice of, what are we solving for?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/erwann-o-michel-kerjan-5653a9/?isSelfProfile=false\">Erwann Michel-Kerjan\u003c/a>, former executive director of the Wharton Risk Center, now a partner at McKinsey & Company. He has studied France’s system. “Are you solving for fairness?”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Perhaps fairness is everyone paying for their own risk? But, equally, perhaps it’s unfair for people to see their insurance costs triple and to be priced out of where they grew up, when they didn’t do anything themselves to increase fire risk?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I don’t think anyone has the answer, because there is not the perfect silver bullet,” Michel-Kerjan said. “California is unique, so it’s not like you can take the French system, the Netherlands system, and make it work in California, but you could be inspired by some of the principles behind some of these schemes.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Time and again, California’s wildfires defy expectations. Do taxpayers want to be responsible?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A system could be particularly hard to set up in California, right now. Wildfire damage is enormous, and costs are skyrocketing.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Experts worry that creating an all-hazard system in California would concentrate fire risk into one program, instead of allowing private insurance companies to spread the costs out across the country, among many different policies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If a public insurance scheme relied only on money from within the state, the danger of costs exceeding incoming funds is greater than if the money going into and out of the system flows through national and global companies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1998029\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fire destruction in downtown Altadena, after the Eaton Fire swept through the area northeast of Los Angeles, on Jan. 9, 2025. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This proposal,” said Carolyn Kousky, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://www.insuranceforgood.org/\">Insurance for Good\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that works on insurance solutions, “would concentrate fire risk, not diversify it.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Diversification tends to make insurance markets stronger. Currently, California’s property insurance market is diversified among dozens of private carriers who, in turn, are diversified across the country, insuring people in different states, and hold reinsurance through global markets.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You would actually end up costing people more by concentrating fire risk in one program instead of having access to this broader diversification,” Kousky said. “And we’ve seen that global reinsurance markets tend to charge more for public programs, for them to offload directly into the reinsurance market, because they are so often politically manipulated and their business isn’t consistent.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reassurance through reinsurance? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If California were to, instead of insuring homes directly, follow one aspect of the French model, it could create a different problem with reinsurance. Reinsurance is most simply thought of as insurance for insurance companies. In France, this helps keep costs down, and in Florida, too; however, in California, reinsurance costs are not a great place for saving. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Florida is the only state in the U.S. that has a public reinsurance program. And it’s actually working pretty well,” Kousky said. That’s because Florida is filled with very small insurers who tend to operate only in the state or the region, and they are poorly capitalized and heavily dependent on insurance. Those costs are high, and they impact the primary market. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A boat crosses Lake Oroville with a smoldering hillside behind as the Thompson Fire burns in Oroville, California, on July 3, 2024. (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Putting in a state layer of reinsurance that’s less expensive and — important — stable in its pricing does provide these protective benefits to the homeowners market there. That’s not the case for the homeowners market in California.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here, she said, most carriers operate nationally, have good financial health, and are getting reinsurance fairly inexpensively. Putting out California fire reinsurance specifically won’t help residents much. Perhaps it would make policies slightly cheaper, but Kousky estimated by not much. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What these public programs mostly do is change who pays. To meaningfully lower how much everyone has to pay, we need to make everyone safer. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could insurance fees pay for wildfire mitigation?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim does want to solve the persistent state problem of a lack of funds to invest in home- and community-level fire resilience. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>State Sen. Ben Allen represents parts of Los Angeles County and is Kim’s opponent for the role of insurance commissioner. He wants to expand grants and financing to help home and business owners safeguard their properties from fire. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wara, at Stanford, said he loves that both insurance commissioner candidates are thinking about how to find money to help communities reduce risk. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002299\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ben Allen, a California state senator, speaks during a forum for candidates for California insurance commissioner at the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) in San Francisco on April 9, 2026. The event brought together candidates to discuss the state’s insurance market, including affordability and coverage challenges facing homeowners. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But Wara does not think there would be enough profit in California’s wildfire insurance premiums to siphon enough off for meaningful investment and have a fund that could continue to pay claims. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When disaster strikes, those funds need a big pile of cash to pay claims, Wara said. “If we are spending that money on trying to reduce risk, the challenge is that we might have some bad fires before we’ve actually reduced the risk and then we’re going to need to pay claims, but we won’t have the money.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In bad years like 2017, 2018 and 2020, insurance industry insiders said decades of company profits were wiped out and, by the early 2020s, many companies felt that the California market had become so risky and unprofitable that, for a time, almost no insurance company would offer new homeowner policies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That has since loosened up, and California’s insurance market shows some early signs of recovery: more companies entering the market and slowed growth in the FAIR Plan — California’s carrier of last resort. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wara likened this to a sick patient who has a long way to go before they can do anything too ambitious. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We have taken one dose of antibiotics when it comes to the insurance system in California,” he said. It’ll be a while before it’s fully healthy. When someone is in recovery, “You just say: ‘go to bed, rest, take some antibiotics. Here’s some soup.’” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>New and creative ideas are needed in California to shift the state from its current untenable trajectory with climate change, wildfires and electrical utilities, Wara said. But he is skeptical of the contours of the plan currently offered by Kim. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s not like the status quo is necessarily going to work,” he said, “We may have to try very different things.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Allen characterized her plan as “taking popular support for comprehensive single-payer health care, which is a real thing that exists in a lot of countries,” he told \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098926/ben-allen-wants-to-take-on-the-insurance-industry-for-you\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>, “and popped it over onto home disaster insurance.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the problem, he said, is that a comprehensive single-payer system doesn’t exist anywhere in the world. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Even if she were able to get this through the legislature, which I don’t think she’d be able to, even if it were a good idea, it would take 10 years to implement at the earliest,” he said. “I’m trying to focus on fixing the problems right now.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim, if elected, would need to advocate for the idea, have a bill proposed by a legislative partner, see it pass both houses and have it signed by the governor. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For her part, Kim said she’s optimistic about her ability to negotiate, build coalitions and get this idea across the finish line. Voters will decide if she gets the chance to try.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Former \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a> Supervisor Jane Kim’s proposal to create a public, natural disaster insurance program for all is the boldest out-of-the-box idea in the race to become California’s next insurance commissioner.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The consumer advocate and attorney proposed a “guaranteed disaster for all insurance program that is publicly run and nonprofit.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The state would collect some of the premiums that you’re already paying to this industry,” she said. “We would invest those dollars in the market, and then we would use excess capital to actually invest in driving down risk, meaning we would invest in fireproofing and floodproofing communities.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The state would collect some of the premiums that you’re already paying to this industry,” she said. “We would invest those dollars in the market, and then we would use excess capital to actually invest in driving down risk, meaning we would invest in fireproofing and floodproofing communities.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kim has pointed to New Zealand and France’s arrangements as potential models. In these countries, the government and private companies share risk in the insurance market. She said she wants to see California’s insurance dollars at work to control the state’s insurance costs. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kim has pointed to New Zealand and France’s arrangements as potential models. In these countries, the government and private companies share risk in the insurance market. She said she wants to see California’s insurance dollars at work to control the state’s insurance costs. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Could a similar program work here? How would it? KQED spoke with half a dozen experts to take a look at these questions, and many met the idea with skepticism, and also some hints of curiosity.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Could a similar program work here? How would it? KQED spoke with half a dozen experts to take a look at these questions, and many met the idea with skepticism, and also some hints of curiosity.\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "What exactly is Jane Kim proposing? ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What exactly is Jane Kim proposing?\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kim’s campaign released a \u003ca href=\"https://www.janekim.org/policy-brief\">policy document\u003c/a> on the proposal on Oct. 8th. It outlines a vision to have the state cover the cost of rebuilding the average home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The money for this would come from two charges added to a person’s private insurance: one would be based on a home’s wildfire risk, another would be based on the value of the home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The proposal raises the possibility of adding a surcharge on high-value second homes and vacation properties. The program would be mandatory but administered similar to the California Earthquake Authority, which covers earthquake risk in the state.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kim’s campaign released a \u003ca href=\"https://www.janekim.org/policy-brief\">policy document\u003c/a> on the proposal on Oct. 8th. It outlines a vision to have the state cover the cost of rebuilding the average home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The money for this would come from two charges added to a person’s private insurance: one would be based on a home’s wildfire risk, another would be based on the value of the home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The proposal raises the possibility of adding a surcharge on high-value second homes and vacation properties. The program would be mandatory but administered similar to the California Earthquake Authority, which covers earthquake risk in the state.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002300\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Jane Kim, former San Francisco supervisor and candidate for California Insurance Commissioner, speaks with politics reporter Marisa Lagos for Political Breakdown at the KQED offices in San Francisco on Sept. 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002300\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Jane Kim, former San Francisco supervisor and candidate for California Insurance Commissioner, speaks with politics reporter Marisa Lagos for Political Breakdown at the KQED offices in San Francisco on Sept. 17, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“From the consumer’s perspective, there’s no difference,” Kim said during an interview on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100390/jane-kims-bold-plan-to-protect-you-when-disaster-strikes\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>. “And when you file a claim, you still file it with the insurance industry. But the state pays it out, and they pay it out quickly and fairly.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“From the consumer’s perspective, there’s no difference,” Kim said during an interview on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100390/jane-kims-bold-plan-to-protect-you-when-disaster-strikes\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>. “And when you file a claim, you still file it with the insurance industry. But the state pays it out, and they pay it out quickly and fairly.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>To fund this, Kim said, the program would happen in stages, “and we’d have to figure out how to capitalize it in the beginning so that we could pay out claims in year one if fires happened.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>To fund this, Kim said, the program would happen in stages, “and we’d have to figure out how to capitalize it in the beginning so that we could pay out claims in year one if fires happened.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But the advantage for the state, she said, is that the profit insurance companies make on this part of policies could be invested in reducing risk.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Public-private insurance partnerships exist in some form in dozens of countries, including England for flood risk and Spain for some risk reduction and emergency response. The U.S. also has a national flood insurance program. And states like Texas and Florida have schemes to socialize some of the costs of home insurance, owing to their frequent hurricanes and flooding.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Public-private insurance partnerships exist in some form in dozens of countries, including England for flood risk and Spain for some risk reduction and emergency response. The U.S. also has a national flood insurance program. And states like Texas and Florida have schemes to socialize some of the costs of home insurance, owing to their frequent hurricanes and flooding.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Each country or state’s arrangement is unique. In New Zealand, a set amount of a homeowner’s property insurance, about 600 New Zealand dollars ($336), goes to the government program that covers seismic risk: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. If a policyholder suffers a loss, they can receive up to 300,000 NZ$ (roughly $170,000). All claim values above that are paid by the insurance company they have coverage with. It only covers seismic hazards.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Each country or state’s arrangement is unique. In New Zealand, a set amount of a homeowner’s property insurance, about 600 New Zealand dollars ($336), goes to the government program that covers seismic risk: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. If a policyholder suffers a loss, they can receive up to 300,000 NZ$ (roughly $170,000). All claim values above that are paid by the insurance company they have coverage with. It only covers seismic hazards.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In France, a surcharge of 20% is added to property insurance policies. Private insurance companies handle claims, but they are reinsured by a public reinsurance company backed by the French state. Spain also operates a public reinsurance and direct insurance program, also funded by mandatory surcharges.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In France, a surcharge of 20% is added to property insurance policies. Private insurance companies handle claims, but they are reinsured by a public reinsurance company backed by the French state. Spain also operates a public reinsurance and direct insurance program, also funded by mandatory surcharges.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>While some California insurance experts believe bold ideas are needed to decrease wildfire risk, most are skeptical of Kim’s idea. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Their concerns overlap: public insurance programs spread out costs but don’t necessarily reduce them; they are often overly generous and fiscally irresponsible because they are set up by politicians who want to be reelected.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Their concerns overlap: public insurance programs spread out costs but don’t necessarily reduce them; they are often overly generous and fiscally irresponsible because they are set up by politicians who want to be reelected.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Some experts argue that California’s climate-fueled disasters are so expensive and frequent that it would be foolish for the state to take on so much risk, and that California’s market is in the early phases of a recovery and that shocking it with major changes could delay or reverse the progress. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1994257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A home destroyed by the Boyles Fire in Clearlake on Sept. 9, 2024, after the wildfire swept through the area on Sept. 8, 2024.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“There aren’t a huge number of what most people would consider successful examples of public insurers. They tend to be plagued by problems,” said Michael Wara, wildfire and insurance expert at Stanford. “And the biggest problem is that when you tell a government agency to set the cost of insurance, they almost always set it too low.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And that means that taxpayers then must bail out the program. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Ideally, place politicians far away from this process,” said Ilan Noy, an expert in the economics of disasters and climate change at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Noy has studied the New Zealand program extensively and is largely a fan of it. However, he did not think an all-natural-hazard system would work in California, where some of the people at the highest risk are also wealthy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>When public-private programs work, it’s because the insurance is being subsidized. But would subsidizing these wealthy homeowners be fair? \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If California insurance costs are going up, Noy said, “the only way to make them lower is reduce the risk through public policy. You cannot make the costs, the premiums low if the risk is high because someone ends up paying for it.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If California insurance costs are going up, Noy said, “the only way to make them lower is reduce the risk through public policy. You cannot make the costs, the premiums low if the risk is high because someone ends up paying for it.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Other experts stressed that the public-private partnerships could work but must be well-designed. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s literally a design choice of, what are we solving for?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/erwann-o-michel-kerjan-5653a9/?isSelfProfile=false\">Erwann Michel-Kerjan\u003c/a>, former executive director of the Wharton Risk Center, now a partner at McKinsey & Company. He has studied France’s system. “Are you solving for fairness?”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’s literally a design choice of, what are we solving for?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/erwann-o-michel-kerjan-5653a9/?isSelfProfile=false\">Erwann Michel-Kerjan\u003c/a>, former executive director of the Wharton Risk Center, now a partner at McKinsey & Company. He has studied France’s system. “Are you solving for fairness?”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Perhaps fairness is everyone paying for their own risk? But, equally, perhaps it’s unfair for people to see their insurance costs triple and to be priced out of where they grew up, when they didn’t do anything themselves to increase fire risk?\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Perhaps fairness is everyone paying for their own risk? But, equally, perhaps it’s unfair for people to see their insurance costs triple and to be priced out of where they grew up, when they didn’t do anything themselves to increase fire risk?\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I don’t think anyone has the answer, because there is not the perfect silver bullet,” Michel-Kerjan said. “California is unique, so it’s not like you can take the French system, the Netherlands system, and make it work in California, but you could be inspired by some of the principles behind some of these schemes.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I don’t think anyone has the answer, because there is not the perfect silver bullet,” Michel-Kerjan said. “California is unique, so it’s not like you can take the French system, the Netherlands system, and make it work in California, but you could be inspired by some of the principles behind some of these schemes.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "Time and again, California’s wildfires defy expectations. Do taxpayers want to be responsible?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Time and again, California’s wildfires defy expectations. Do taxpayers want to be responsible?\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A system could be particularly hard to set up in California, right now. Wildfire damage is enormous, and costs are skyrocketing.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A system could be particularly hard to set up in California, right now. Wildfire damage is enormous, and costs are skyrocketing.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Experts worry that creating an all-hazard system in California would concentrate fire risk into one program, instead of allowing private insurance companies to spread the costs out across the country, among many different policies. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Experts worry that creating an all-hazard system in California would concentrate fire risk into one program, instead of allowing private insurance companies to spread the costs out across the country, among many different policies. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If a public insurance scheme relied only on money from within the state, the danger of costs exceeding incoming funds is greater than if the money going into and out of the system flows through national and global companies. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If a public insurance scheme relied only on money from within the state, the danger of costs exceeding incoming funds is greater than if the money going into and out of the system flows through national and global companies. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1998029\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fire destruction in downtown Altadena, after the Eaton Fire swept through the area northeast of Los Angeles, on Jan. 9, 2025.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1998029\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fire destruction in downtown Altadena, after the Eaton Fire swept through the area northeast of Los Angeles, on Jan. 9, 2025.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This proposal,” said Carolyn Kousky, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://www.insuranceforgood.org/\">Insurance for Good\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that works on insurance solutions, “would concentrate fire risk, not diversify it.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“This proposal,” said Carolyn Kousky, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://www.insuranceforgood.org/\">Insurance for Good\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that works on insurance solutions, “would concentrate fire risk, not diversify it.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Diversification tends to make insurance markets stronger. Currently, California’s property insurance market is diversified among dozens of private carriers who, in turn, are diversified across the country, insuring people in different states, and hold reinsurance through global markets.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Diversification tends to make insurance markets stronger. Currently, California’s property insurance market is diversified among dozens of private carriers who, in turn, are diversified across the country, insuring people in different states, and hold reinsurance through global markets.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“You would actually end up costing people more by concentrating fire risk in one program instead of having access to this broader diversification,” Kousky said. “And we’ve seen that global reinsurance markets tend to charge more for public programs, for them to offload directly into the reinsurance market, because they are so often politically manipulated and their business isn’t consistent.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“You would actually end up costing people more by concentrating fire risk in one program instead of having access to this broader diversification,” Kousky said. “And we’ve seen that global reinsurance markets tend to charge more for public programs, for them to offload directly into the reinsurance market, because they are so often politically manipulated and their business isn’t consistent.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "Reassurance through reinsurance?",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>If California were to, instead of insuring homes directly, follow one aspect of the French model, it could create a different problem with reinsurance. Reinsurance is most simply thought of as insurance for insurance companies. In France, this helps keep costs down, and in Florida, too; however, in California, reinsurance costs are not a great place for saving. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>If California were to, instead of insuring homes directly, follow one aspect of the French model, it could create a different problem with reinsurance. Reinsurance is most simply thought of as insurance for insurance companies. In France, this helps keep costs down, and in Florida, too; however, in California, reinsurance costs are not a great place for saving. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Florida is the only state in the U.S. that has a public reinsurance program. And it’s actually working pretty well,” Kousky said. That’s because Florida is filled with very small insurers who tend to operate only in the state or the region, and they are poorly capitalized and heavily dependent on insurance. Those costs are high, and they impact the primary market. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Florida is the only state in the U.S. that has a public reinsurance program. And it’s actually working pretty well,” Kousky said. That’s because Florida is filled with very small insurers who tend to operate only in the state or the region, and they are poorly capitalized and heavily dependent on insurance. Those costs are high, and they impact the primary market. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A boat crosses Lake Oroville with a smoldering hillside behind as the Thompson Fire burns in Oroville, California, on July 3, 2024. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000450\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A boat crosses Lake Oroville with a smoldering hillside behind as the Thompson Fire burns in Oroville, California, on July 3, 2024. \u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Putting in a state layer of reinsurance that’s less expensive and — important — stable in its pricing does provide these protective benefits to the homeowners market there. That’s not the case for the homeowners market in California.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Here, she said, most carriers operate nationally, have good financial health, and are getting reinsurance fairly inexpensively. Putting out California fire reinsurance specifically won’t help residents much. Perhaps it would make policies slightly cheaper, but Kousky estimated by not much. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Here, she said, most carriers operate nationally, have good financial health, and are getting reinsurance fairly inexpensively. Putting out California fire reinsurance specifically won’t help residents much. Perhaps it would make policies slightly cheaper, but Kousky estimated by not much. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>What these public programs mostly do is change who pays. To meaningfully lower how much everyone has to pay, we need to make everyone safer. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>What these public programs mostly do is change who pays. To meaningfully lower how much everyone has to pay, we need to make everyone safer. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kim does want to solve the persistent state problem of a lack of funds to invest in home- and community-level fire resilience. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kim does want to solve the persistent state problem of a lack of funds to invest in home- and community-level fire resilience. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>State Sen. Ben Allen represents parts of Los Angeles County and is Kim’s opponent for the role of insurance commissioner. He wants to expand grants and financing to help home and business owners safeguard their properties from fire. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>State Sen. Ben Allen represents parts of Los Angeles County and is Kim’s opponent for the role of insurance commissioner. He wants to expand grants and financing to help home and business owners safeguard their properties from fire. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Wara, at Stanford, said he loves that both insurance commissioner candidates are thinking about how to find money to help communities reduce risk. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002299\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ben Allen, a California state senator, speaks during a forum for candidates for California insurance commissioner at the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) in San Francisco on April 9, 2026. The event brought together candidates to discuss the state’s insurance market, including affordability and coverage challenges facing homeowners.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But Wara does not think there would be enough profit in California’s wildfire insurance premiums to siphon enough off for meaningful investment and have a fund that could continue to pay claims. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>When disaster strikes, those funds need a big pile of cash to pay claims, Wara said. “If we are spending that money on trying to reduce risk, the challenge is that we might have some bad fires before we’ve actually reduced the risk and then we’re going to need to pay claims, but we won’t have the money.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>When disaster strikes, those funds need a big pile of cash to pay claims, Wara said. “If we are spending that money on trying to reduce risk, the challenge is that we might have some bad fires before we’ve actually reduced the risk and then we’re going to need to pay claims, but we won’t have the money.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In bad years like 2017, 2018 and 2020, insurance industry insiders said decades of company profits were wiped out and, by the early 2020s, many companies felt that the California market had become so risky and unprofitable that, for a time, almost no insurance company would offer new homeowner policies. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That has since loosened up, and California’s insurance market shows some early signs of recovery: more companies entering the market and slowed growth in the FAIR Plan — California’s carrier of last resort. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That has since loosened up, and California’s insurance market shows some early signs of recovery: more companies entering the market and slowed growth in the FAIR Plan — California’s carrier of last resort. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Wara likened this to a sick patient who has a long way to go before they can do anything too ambitious. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We have taken one dose of antibiotics when it comes to the insurance system in California,” he said. It’ll be a while before it’s fully healthy. When someone is in recovery, “You just say: ‘go to bed, rest, take some antibiotics. Here’s some soup.’” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We have taken one dose of antibiotics when it comes to the insurance system in California,” he said. It’ll be a while before it’s fully healthy. When someone is in recovery, “You just say: ‘go to bed, rest, take some antibiotics. Here’s some soup.’” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>New and creative ideas are needed in California to shift the state from its current untenable trajectory with climate change, wildfires and electrical utilities, Wara said. But he is skeptical of the contours of the plan currently offered by Kim. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>New and creative ideas are needed in California to shift the state from its current untenable trajectory with climate change, wildfires and electrical utilities, Wara said. But he is skeptical of the contours of the plan currently offered by Kim. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s not like the status quo is necessarily going to work,” he said, “We may have to try very different things.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’s not like the status quo is necessarily going to work,” he said, “We may have to try very different things.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Allen characterized her plan as “taking popular support for comprehensive single-payer health care, which is a real thing that exists in a lot of countries,” he told \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098926/ben-allen-wants-to-take-on-the-insurance-industry-for-you\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>, “and popped it over onto home disaster insurance.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Allen characterized her plan as “taking popular support for comprehensive single-payer health care, which is a real thing that exists in a lot of countries,” he told \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098926/ben-allen-wants-to-take-on-the-insurance-industry-for-you\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>, “and popped it over onto home disaster insurance.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But the problem, he said, is that a comprehensive single-payer system doesn’t exist anywhere in the world. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But the problem, he said, is that a comprehensive single-payer system doesn’t exist anywhere in the world. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Even if she were able to get this through the legislature, which I don’t think she’d be able to, even if it were a good idea, it would take 10 years to implement at the earliest,” he said. “I’m trying to focus on fixing the problems right now.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Even if she were able to get this through the legislature, which I don’t think she’d be able to, even if it were a good idea, it would take 10 years to implement at the earliest,” he said. “I’m trying to focus on fixing the problems right now.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kim, if elected, would need to advocate for the idea, have a bill proposed by a legislative partner, see it pass both houses and have it signed by the governor. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kim, if elected, would need to advocate for the idea, have a bill proposed by a legislative partner, see it pass both houses and have it signed by the governor. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For her part, Kim said she’s optimistic about her ability to negotiate, build coalitions and get this idea across the finish line. Voters will decide if she gets the chance to try.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For her part, Kim said she’s optimistic about her ability to negotiate, build coalitions and get this idea across the finish line. Voters will decide if she gets the chance to try.\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Jane Kim is running to be California’s insurance commissioner on the idea that it can. Many experts have reservations, but agree that more needs to be done to reduce insurance costs.",
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"title": "Could a Public Wildfire Insurance Plan Work in California? | KQED",
"description": "Jane Kim is running to be California’s insurance commissioner on the idea that it can. Many experts have reservations, but agree that more needs to be done to reduce insurance costs.",
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"headline": "Could a Public Wildfire Insurance Plan Work in California?",
"datePublished": "2026-10-14T08:00:00-07:00",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Former \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/san-francisco\">San Francisco\u003c/a> Supervisor Jane Kim’s proposal to create a public, natural disaster insurance program for all is the boldest out-of-the-box idea in the race to become California’s next insurance commissioner.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The consumer advocate and attorney proposed a “guaranteed disaster for all insurance program that is publicly run and nonprofit.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The state would collect some of the premiums that you’re already paying to this industry,” she said. “We would invest those dollars in the market, and then we would use excess capital to actually invest in driving down risk, meaning we would invest in fireproofing and floodproofing communities.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim has pointed to New Zealand and France’s arrangements as potential models. In these countries, the government and private companies share risk in the insurance market. She said she wants to see California’s insurance dollars at work to control the state’s insurance costs. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Could a similar program work here? How would it? KQED spoke with half a dozen experts to take a look at these questions, and many met the idea with skepticism, and also some hints of curiosity.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What exactly is Jane Kim proposing?\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim’s campaign released a \u003ca href=\"https://www.janekim.org/policy-brief\">policy document\u003c/a> on the proposal on Oct. 8th. It outlines a vision to have the state cover the cost of rebuilding the average home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The money for this would come from two charges added to a person’s private insurance: one would be based on a home’s wildfire risk, another would be based on the value of the home.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The proposal raises the possibility of adding a surcharge on high-value second homes and vacation properties. The program would be mandatory but administered similar to the California Earthquake Authority, which covers earthquake risk in the state.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002300\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260917-JaneKimPB-04-BL_qed-bf9c36ae-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Jane Kim, former San Francisco supervisor and candidate for California Insurance Commissioner, speaks with politics reporter Marisa Lagos for Political Breakdown at the KQED offices in San Francisco on Sept. 17, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“From the consumer’s perspective, there’s no difference,” Kim said during an interview on \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100390/jane-kims-bold-plan-to-protect-you-when-disaster-strikes\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>. “And when you file a claim, you still file it with the insurance industry. But the state pays it out, and they pay it out quickly and fairly.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>To fund this, Kim said, the program would happen in stages, “and we’d have to figure out how to capitalize it in the beginning so that we could pay out claims in year one if fires happened.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the advantage for the state, she said, is that the profit insurance companies make on this part of policies could be invested in reducing risk.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Public-private insurance partnerships exist in some form in dozens of countries, including England for flood risk and Spain for some risk reduction and emergency response. The U.S. also has a national flood insurance program. And states like Texas and Florida have schemes to socialize some of the costs of home insurance, owing to their frequent hurricanes and flooding.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1994224\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/AP24253126507105-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Firefighter Nolan Graham sprays water around a scorched garage as the Boyles fire burns in Clearlake on Sept. 8, 2024. (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Each country or state’s arrangement is unique. In New Zealand, a set amount of a homeowner’s property insurance, about 600 New Zealand dollars ($336), goes to the government program that covers seismic risk: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides. If a policyholder suffers a loss, they can receive up to 300,000 NZ$ (roughly $170,000). All claim values above that are paid by the insurance company they have coverage with. It only covers seismic hazards.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In France, a surcharge of 20% is added to property insurance policies. Private insurance companies handle claims, but they are reinsured by a public reinsurance company backed by the French state. Spain also operates a public reinsurance and direct insurance program, also funded by mandatory surcharges.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While some California insurance experts believe bold ideas are needed to decrease wildfire risk, most are skeptical of Kim’s idea. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Caution, skepticism, some curiosity, too \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Their concerns overlap: public insurance programs spread out costs but don’t necessarily reduce them; they are often overly generous and fiscally irresponsible because they are set up by politicians who want to be reelected.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Some experts argue that California’s climate-fueled disasters are so expensive and frequent that it would be foolish for the state to take on so much risk, and that California’s market is in the early phases of a recovery and that shocking it with major changes could delay or reverse the progress. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1994257\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/09/240909-BOYLESFIRE-22-BL-KQED-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A home destroyed by the Boyles Fire in Clearlake on Sept. 9, 2024, after the wildfire swept through the area on Sept. 8, 2024. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There aren’t a huge number of what most people would consider successful examples of public insurers. They tend to be plagued by problems,” said Michael Wara, wildfire and insurance expert at Stanford. “And the biggest problem is that when you tell a government agency to set the cost of insurance, they almost always set it too low.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And that means that taxpayers then must bail out the program. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Ideally, place politicians far away from this process,” said Ilan Noy, an expert in the economics of disasters and climate change at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Noy has studied the New Zealand program extensively and is largely a fan of it. However, he did not think an all-natural-hazard system would work in California, where some of the people at the highest risk are also wealthy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When public-private programs work, it’s because the insurance is being subsidized. But would subsidizing these wealthy homeowners be fair? \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If California insurance costs are going up, Noy said, “the only way to make them lower is reduce the risk through public policy. You cannot make the costs, the premiums low if the risk is high because someone ends up paying for it.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Other experts stressed that the public-private partnerships could work but must be well-designed. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s literally a design choice of, what are we solving for?” said \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/erwann-o-michel-kerjan-5653a9/?isSelfProfile=false\">Erwann Michel-Kerjan\u003c/a>, former executive director of the Wharton Risk Center, now a partner at McKinsey & Company. He has studied France’s system. “Are you solving for fairness?”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Perhaps fairness is everyone paying for their own risk? But, equally, perhaps it’s unfair for people to see their insurance costs triple and to be priced out of where they grew up, when they didn’t do anything themselves to increase fire risk?\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I don’t think anyone has the answer, because there is not the perfect silver bullet,” Michel-Kerjan said. “California is unique, so it’s not like you can take the French system, the Netherlands system, and make it work in California, but you could be inspired by some of the principles behind some of these schemes.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Time and again, California’s wildfires defy expectations. Do taxpayers want to be responsible?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A system could be particularly hard to set up in California, right now. Wildfire damage is enormous, and costs are skyrocketing.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Experts worry that creating an all-hazard system in California would concentrate fire risk into one program, instead of allowing private insurance companies to spread the costs out across the country, among many different policies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If a public insurance scheme relied only on money from within the state, the danger of costs exceeding incoming funds is greater than if the money going into and out of the system flows through national and global companies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1998029\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2025/08/240109-CAWindStorm-069_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fire destruction in downtown Altadena, after the Eaton Fire swept through the area northeast of Los Angeles, on Jan. 9, 2025. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This proposal,” said Carolyn Kousky, executive director of \u003ca href=\"https://www.insuranceforgood.org/\">Insurance for Good\u003c/a>, a nonprofit that works on insurance solutions, “would concentrate fire risk, not diversify it.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Diversification tends to make insurance markets stronger. Currently, California’s property insurance market is diversified among dozens of private carriers who, in turn, are diversified across the country, insuring people in different states, and hold reinsurance through global markets.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“You would actually end up costing people more by concentrating fire risk in one program instead of having access to this broader diversification,” Kousky said. “And we’ve seen that global reinsurance markets tend to charge more for public programs, for them to offload directly into the reinsurance market, because they are so often politically manipulated and their business isn’t consistent.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reassurance through reinsurance? \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>If California were to, instead of insuring homes directly, follow one aspect of the French model, it could create a different problem with reinsurance. Reinsurance is most simply thought of as insurance for insurance companies. In France, this helps keep costs down, and in Florida, too; however, in California, reinsurance costs are not a great place for saving. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Florida is the only state in the U.S. that has a public reinsurance program. And it’s actually working pretty well,” Kousky said. That’s because Florida is filled with very small insurers who tend to operate only in the state or the region, and they are poorly capitalized and heavily dependent on insurance. Those costs are high, and they impact the primary market. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/03/OrovilleWildfireAP-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A boat crosses Lake Oroville with a smoldering hillside behind as the Thompson Fire burns in Oroville, California, on July 3, 2024. (Noah Berger/AP Photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Putting in a state layer of reinsurance that’s less expensive and — important — stable in its pricing does provide these protective benefits to the homeowners market there. That’s not the case for the homeowners market in California.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Here, she said, most carriers operate nationally, have good financial health, and are getting reinsurance fairly inexpensively. Putting out California fire reinsurance specifically won’t help residents much. Perhaps it would make policies slightly cheaper, but Kousky estimated by not much. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>What these public programs mostly do is change who pays. To meaningfully lower how much everyone has to pay, we need to make everyone safer. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could insurance fees pay for wildfire mitigation?\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim does want to solve the persistent state problem of a lack of funds to invest in home- and community-level fire resilience. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>State Sen. Ben Allen represents parts of Los Angeles County and is Kim’s opponent for the role of insurance commissioner. He wants to expand grants and financing to help home and business owners safeguard their properties from fire. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wara, at Stanford, said he loves that both insurance commissioner candidates are thinking about how to find money to help communities reduce risk. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002299\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/260409-InsuranceCandidateForum-12-BL_qed-708498f7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Ben Allen, a California state senator, speaks during a forum for candidates for California insurance commissioner at the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) in San Francisco on April 9, 2026. The event brought together candidates to discuss the state’s insurance market, including affordability and coverage challenges facing homeowners. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But Wara does not think there would be enough profit in California’s wildfire insurance premiums to siphon enough off for meaningful investment and have a fund that could continue to pay claims. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>When disaster strikes, those funds need a big pile of cash to pay claims, Wara said. “If we are spending that money on trying to reduce risk, the challenge is that we might have some bad fires before we’ve actually reduced the risk and then we’re going to need to pay claims, but we won’t have the money.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In bad years like 2017, 2018 and 2020, insurance industry insiders said decades of company profits were wiped out and, by the early 2020s, many companies felt that the California market had become so risky and unprofitable that, for a time, almost no insurance company would offer new homeowner policies. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That has since loosened up, and California’s insurance market shows some early signs of recovery: more companies entering the market and slowed growth in the FAIR Plan — California’s carrier of last resort. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wara likened this to a sick patient who has a long way to go before they can do anything too ambitious. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We have taken one dose of antibiotics when it comes to the insurance system in California,” he said. It’ll be a while before it’s fully healthy. When someone is in recovery, “You just say: ‘go to bed, rest, take some antibiotics. Here’s some soup.’” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>New and creative ideas are needed in California to shift the state from its current untenable trajectory with climate change, wildfires and electrical utilities, Wara said. But he is skeptical of the contours of the plan currently offered by Kim. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s not like the status quo is necessarily going to work,” he said, “We may have to try very different things.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Allen characterized her plan as “taking popular support for comprehensive single-payer health care, which is a real thing that exists in a lot of countries,” he told \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098926/ben-allen-wants-to-take-on-the-insurance-industry-for-you\">KQED’s Political Breakdown\u003c/a>, “and popped it over onto home disaster insurance.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But the problem, he said, is that a comprehensive single-payer system doesn’t exist anywhere in the world. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Even if she were able to get this through the legislature, which I don’t think she’d be able to, even if it were a good idea, it would take 10 years to implement at the earliest,” he said. “I’m trying to focus on fixing the problems right now.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kim, if elected, would need to advocate for the idea, have a bill proposed by a legislative partner, see it pass both houses and have it signed by the governor. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For her part, Kim said she’s optimistic about her ability to negotiate, build coalitions and get this idea across the finish line. Voters will decide if she gets the chance to try.\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "a-potential-catastrophe-sacramento-san-joaquin-delta-prepares-for-super-el-nino",
"title": "‘A Potential Catastrophe’: Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Prepares for Super El Niño",
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"headTitle": "‘A Potential Catastrophe’: Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Prepares for Super El Niño | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Aaron Lickingteller pointed down from the top of one of the westernmost levees in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/sacramento-san-joaquin-delta\">Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta\u003c/a> to the land 25 feet below. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Without constant maintenance work, he said, these levees degrade quickly. “Squirrel holes, dead trees, little leaks, a little bit of erosion. Next thing you know, you’re springing a leak,” he said. “That leak is like a zipper on a pair of pants. You just unzip that, and everything comes out, you know what I mean, or goes in.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like most Delta islands, Twitchell Island sits below sea level. It is less of an island, more of a bowl. On either side run the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, which together capture about 40% of the state’s runoff. This year, as California faces what experts are calling “Super El Niño” conditions, residents in the Delta are preparing for the prospect of devastating flooding. But they have faced tough conditions before, and while they are readying for worst-case scenarios, some feel a hard-earned confidence that comes from decades of work to improve levees and response systems. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002243\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kjeldsen, Sinnock and Neudeck, Inc. construction inspector, Aaron Lickingteller, speaks to a KQED reporter in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>But if predictions hold, keeping the water out won’t be an easy task. The volume of water pushing against the Delta’s roughly 1,100 miles of levees — many built by hand more than a hundred years ago — will be much higher. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With warmer ocean temperatures, tide levels and storm surges will rise, and wet, warm storm systems will become stronger and more frequent. In a possible scenario this year, a supercharged King Tide may coincide with an atmospheric river, sending powerful floodwaters downhill from the Sierra Nevada to meet a water level in the Delta up to six feet higher than normal. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Just behind Lickingteller, a cargo ship passed by, its wake breaking against the levee. He walked further along the levee’s interior to a construction site, heavy machinery crawling across the bare, brown earth. “Things have to get messy before they get put back together,” he said. This is the current levee improvement area for KSN, Inc., the engineering company he works for — improvements that never stop. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002247\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kay Dix Ranch owner, Daniel Wilson, speaks to a KQED reporter in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>As he explained the risks of this coming winter, the wind gusted from the Carquinez Strait. “By the time the wind comes and smashes the water here, it’s got a lot of force.” If that force is coupled with a high water event, “you’re just looking for a potential catastrophe.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On the eastern end of the Delta, fifth-generation farmer Daniel Wilson said he has a different set of worries. He leaned on an enormous pear-sorting machine, under a shade awning, away from the sun. Behind him were rows of pear and cherry trees — besides irrigation, no water in sight. While the water on Twitchell Island is always close to the top of the levee, on this eastern side the level is dependent on river flow rate, with much more seasonal variation. Most of the year, Wilson said, water isn’t a threat. But during the winter, large storms send powerful surges of water downstream. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“When it does go that big, it breaks all the levies [upriver] and all hell breaks loose.” Wilson recalled the worst flooding years in recent memory, and said he has “every reason to believe” this year could be worse. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Their feet haven’t been wet lately’ \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Delta, once a 700,000-acre tidal marsh, is no stranger to flooding. In 1972, a levee failure inundated Brannan-Andrus Island, including the historic town of Isleton, causing $20 million in damage. In January of 1983, Mildred Island flooded when King Tides coincided with an atmospheric river, and it remains underwater to this day. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In 1986, more than 30,000 acres of the Delta were flooded, and in 1997, snows from a cold winter storm melted rapidly by rain from a warm atmospheric river, creating floodwaters that ravaged both the Sacramento and San Joaquin systems. That event remains the flood of record for the Delta, flooding Tyler Island, among others. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002241\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pumps remove water from Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>This episodic flooding, while costing lives and money, has also led to increased funding to strengthen the Delta’s fragile levee system. Chris Neudeck, president of KSN, Inc., said that since 1972, there’s been a marked improvement in the height and quality of levees. One of the reasons for this? Southern California depends on freshwater that flows through the Delta until Tracy, where it’s pumped south. Half of California’s water supply flows through the Delta and is delivered to three out of five Californians.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For that freshwater to stay fresh, the Delta system has to stay intact, Neudeck said. Otherwise, saltwater encroaches too far upstream. In the past, such as the 1972 Brannan-Andrus flood, the salinity line encroached too far east and the state stopped pumping water south. Because of the improvements, there hasn’t been an island flooded by a levee failure in over 20 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, Neudeck said California’s leaders are not spending enough money protecting this vital chokepoint. “I’ll be frank, they’re irresponsible,” he said. “It’s just too convenient to forgo expenditures, when their feet haven’t been wet lately.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Delta of the future\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Campbell Ingram, executive officer of the Delta Conservancy, a state agency focused on ecosystem restoration in the Delta, acknowledged the improved levees, but said the system is still under threat.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That’s absolutely a credit to them and great, but I think many people, myself included, have serious doubts about the long-term viability of the Delta given climate change and increasing sea level rising, increasing storm magnitude,” Ingram said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A report from another state agency, the Delta Stewardship Council, found that by 2085, 21% of the Delta’s population, 68% of its land, $22 billion in assets and more than $5 billion in annual economic activity would be exposed by a 100-year flood event. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002244\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Conservation Farms and Ranches director, Jerred Dixon, and The Nature Conservancy director of land protection and stewardship speak to a KQED reporter in Thornton on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>One of the primary problems is that the Delta keeps on sinking. Much of the Delta rests on peat, a spongy soil that, while fertile for farming, risks further subsidence when planted with traditional row crops like corn. “There are a 150,000 acres out there in the center of the Delta between twenty and thirty feet below sea level,” Ingram said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Jerred Dixon, a fifth-generation Delta farmer, is piloting a way to create a more resilient future on Staten Island. Owned by The Nature Conservancy and managed by Dixon, the island is now an economically viable, wildlife-friendly farm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s right at the neck of two of the three rivers that feed from the Sacramento River to the San Joaquin for fresh drinking water for the south. And also a kind of a bottleneck for migratory birds,” Dixon said. He described the fragile economic and ecological ecosystem of the Delta alongside his own life, growing up five miles from Staten Island. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“My whole life was spent in the Delta, and it’s kind of a little bit in my blood,” Dixon said with a smile. “This is the last Wild West of California.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002238\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Levees protect Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Dixon parked his truck on top of the levee near the meeting of the North and South forks of the Mokelumne River. He pointed toward little saplings, protected by plastic, on the river side – it costs about $5 million a mile to do this levee rehabilitation, he said, laughing. Then he looked over the island to a conservation easement that protects the migratory birds. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re making it that agricultural ridge, but still being able to provide that habitat for the birds and foraging and roosting habitat.” On the mineral soil, he can grow corn and alfalfa and triticale, and toward the lower end, a mixture of rice and wetlands, which prevent further subsidence, sequester carbon, and provide habitat for migrating sandhill cranes.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>A large portion of the global population of cranes spend their winter here in the Delta. “The sun is going down behind Mount Diablo, and there’s 50,000 birds coming in,” said Rodd Kesley, California land program director with The Nature Conservancy, of Staten Island. “It’s magical.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There’s no future of California that’s very bright without the Delta actually being functional and intact in some new ways, not business as usual but toward a future that makes sure we’re still able to deliver the water,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’re always kind of on edge’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, said the risk of flooding is a fact of life for Delta residents. “We’re always kind of on edge.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Delta living means driving long distances to get to grocery stores and other basic needs. And even the frequent, minor flooding can make life difficult. But, over time, you get “used to it,” he said. This year, though, feels different. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I’ve had a lot of people talk about this El Niño.” He said he hoped for the same minor flooding they deal with every year, instead of what “we always dread about it, the levees breaking.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002245\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, poses for a portrait in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. Thelen says that he doesn’t have an exact plan for if the roads flood around Walnut Grove. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Across the Delta, living with the constant threat of flooding breeds a particular kind of acquiescence and resilience. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We really don’t have anything to stop it in big years,” Dixon said. “One island kinda always goes down in bad years.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t planted crops on one of the smaller islands on his farm because of the flooding risk. “Will somebody flood this year? Probably, somewhere in the Delta. Hopefully not us, but it’s hard to say.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" data-id=\"2002248\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002248\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sandbags and water barriers pile up at a flood fight material storage yard in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2002239\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002239\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Levees protect Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Back on Twitchell Island, Lickingteller said that they’re ready. “There’ll be 24/7 levee patrols when the waters are high, and it’s constantly raining, winds blowing.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if a levee were to fail, it would be all hands on deck — farmers, landowners, engineers and emergency response — all working together in an effort they call “flood fighting.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Things happen quick,” he said. You could be out checking the levee, and everything’s fine, then “five minutes later this whole thing collapsed.”\u003cbr>\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Aaron Lickingteller pointed down from the top of one of the westernmost levees in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/sacramento-san-joaquin-delta\">Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta\u003c/a> to the land 25 feet below. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Aaron Lickingteller pointed down from the top of one of the westernmost levees in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/sacramento-san-joaquin-delta\">Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta\u003c/a> to the land 25 feet below. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Without constant maintenance work, he said, these levees degrade quickly. “Squirrel holes, dead trees, little leaks, a little bit of erosion. Next thing you know, you’re springing a leak,” he said. “That leak is like a zipper on a pair of pants. You just unzip that, and everything comes out, you know what I mean, or goes in.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Without constant maintenance work, he said, these levees degrade quickly. “Squirrel holes, dead trees, little leaks, a little bit of erosion. Next thing you know, you’re springing a leak,” he said. “That leak is like a zipper on a pair of pants. You just unzip that, and everything comes out, you know what I mean, or goes in.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Like most Delta islands, Twitchell Island sits below sea level. It is less of an island, more of a bowl. On either side run the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, which together capture about 40% of the state’s runoff. This year, as California faces what experts are calling “Super El Niño” conditions, residents in the Delta are preparing for the prospect of devastating flooding. But they have faced tough conditions before, and while they are readying for worst-case scenarios, some feel a hard-earned confidence that comes from decades of work to improve levees and response systems. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Like most Delta islands, Twitchell Island sits below sea level. It is less of an island, more of a bowl. On either side run the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, which together capture about 40% of the state’s runoff. This year, as California faces what experts are calling “Super El Niño” conditions, residents in the Delta are preparing for the prospect of devastating flooding. But they have faced tough conditions before, and while they are readying for worst-case scenarios, some feel a hard-earned confidence that comes from decades of work to improve levees and response systems. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002243\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kjeldsen, Sinnock and Neudeck, Inc. construction inspector, Aaron Lickingteller, speaks to a KQED reporter in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002243\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kjeldsen, Sinnock and Neudeck, Inc. construction inspector, Aaron Lickingteller, speaks to a KQED reporter in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But if predictions hold, keeping the water out won’t be an easy task. The volume of water pushing against the Delta’s roughly 1,100 miles of levees — many built by hand more than a hundred years ago — will be much higher. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But if predictions hold, keeping the water out won’t be an easy task. The volume of water pushing against the Delta’s roughly 1,100 miles of levees — many built by hand more than a hundred years ago — will be much higher. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>With warmer ocean temperatures, tide levels and storm surges will rise, and wet, warm storm systems will become stronger and more frequent. In a possible scenario this year, a supercharged King Tide may coincide with an atmospheric river, sending powerful floodwaters downhill from the Sierra Nevada to meet a water level in the Delta up to six feet higher than normal. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>With warmer ocean temperatures, tide levels and storm surges will rise, and wet, warm storm systems will become stronger and more frequent. In a possible scenario this year, a supercharged King Tide may coincide with an atmospheric river, sending powerful floodwaters downhill from the Sierra Nevada to meet a water level in the Delta up to six feet higher than normal. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Just behind Lickingteller, a cargo ship passed by, its wake breaking against the levee. He walked further along the levee’s interior to a construction site, heavy machinery crawling across the bare, brown earth. “Things have to get messy before they get put back together,” he said. This is the current levee improvement area for KSN, Inc., the engineering company he works for — improvements that never stop. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Just behind Lickingteller, a cargo ship passed by, its wake breaking against the levee. He walked further along the levee’s interior to a construction site, heavy machinery crawling across the bare, brown earth. “Things have to get messy before they get put back together,” he said. This is the current levee improvement area for KSN, Inc., the engineering company he works for — improvements that never stop. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002247\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kay Dix Ranch owner, Daniel Wilson, speaks to a KQED reporter in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002247\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kay Dix Ranch owner, Daniel Wilson, speaks to a KQED reporter in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As he explained the risks of this coming winter, the wind gusted from the Carquinez Strait. “By the time the wind comes and smashes the water here, it’s got a lot of force.” If that force is coupled with a high water event, “you’re just looking for a potential catastrophe.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>As he explained the risks of this coming winter, the wind gusted from the Carquinez Strait. “By the time the wind comes and smashes the water here, it’s got a lot of force.” If that force is coupled with a high water event, “you’re just looking for a potential catastrophe.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>On the eastern end of the Delta, fifth-generation farmer Daniel Wilson said he has a different set of worries. He leaned on an enormous pear-sorting machine, under a shade awning, away from the sun. Behind him were rows of pear and cherry trees — besides irrigation, no water in sight. While the water on Twitchell Island is always close to the top of the levee, on this eastern side the level is dependent on river flow rate, with much more seasonal variation. Most of the year, Wilson said, water isn’t a threat. But during the winter, large storms send powerful surges of water downstream. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>On the eastern end of the Delta, fifth-generation farmer Daniel Wilson said he has a different set of worries. He leaned on an enormous pear-sorting machine, under a shade awning, away from the sun. Behind him were rows of pear and cherry trees — besides irrigation, no water in sight. While the water on Twitchell Island is always close to the top of the levee, on this eastern side the level is dependent on river flow rate, with much more seasonal variation. Most of the year, Wilson said, water isn’t a threat. But during the winter, large storms send powerful surges of water downstream. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“When it does go that big, it breaks all the levies [upriver] and all hell breaks loose.” Wilson recalled the worst flooding years in recent memory, and said he has “every reason to believe” this year could be worse. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“When it does go that big, it breaks all the levies [upriver] and all hell breaks loose.” Wilson recalled the worst flooding years in recent memory, and said he has “every reason to believe” this year could be worse. \u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "‘Their feet haven’t been wet lately’ ",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Their feet haven’t been wet lately’ \u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Their feet haven’t been wet lately’ \u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The Delta, once a 700,000-acre tidal marsh, is no stranger to flooding. In 1972, a levee failure inundated Brannan-Andrus Island, including the historic town of Isleton, causing $20 million in damage. In January of 1983, Mildred Island flooded when King Tides coincided with an atmospheric river, and it remains underwater to this day. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The Delta, once a 700,000-acre tidal marsh, is no stranger to flooding. In 1972, a levee failure inundated Brannan-Andrus Island, including the historic town of Isleton, causing $20 million in damage. In January of 1983, Mildred Island flooded when King Tides coincided with an atmospheric river, and it remains underwater to this day. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In 1986, more than 30,000 acres of the Delta were flooded, and in 1997, snows from a cold winter storm melted rapidly by rain from a warm atmospheric river, creating floodwaters that ravaged both the Sacramento and San Joaquin systems. That event remains the flood of record for the Delta, flooding Tyler Island, among others. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In 1986, more than 30,000 acres of the Delta were flooded, and in 1997, snows from a cold winter storm melted rapidly by rain from a warm atmospheric river, creating floodwaters that ravaged both the Sacramento and San Joaquin systems. That event remains the flood of record for the Delta, flooding Tyler Island, among others. \u003c/p>\n"
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"srcset": "https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002241\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pumps remove water from Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002241\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pumps remove water from Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>This episodic flooding, while costing lives and money, has also led to increased funding to strengthen the Delta’s fragile levee system. Chris Neudeck, president of KSN, Inc., said that since 1972, there’s been a marked improvement in the height and quality of levees. One of the reasons for this? Southern California depends on freshwater that flows through the Delta until Tracy, where it’s pumped south. Half of California’s water supply flows through the Delta and is delivered to three out of five Californians.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>This episodic flooding, while costing lives and money, has also led to increased funding to strengthen the Delta’s fragile levee system. Chris Neudeck, president of KSN, Inc., said that since 1972, there’s been a marked improvement in the height and quality of levees. One of the reasons for this? Southern California depends on freshwater that flows through the Delta until Tracy, where it’s pumped south. Half of California’s water supply flows through the Delta and is delivered to three out of five Californians.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>For that freshwater to stay fresh, the Delta system has to stay intact, Neudeck said. Otherwise, saltwater encroaches too far upstream. In the past, such as the 1972 Brannan-Andrus flood, the salinity line encroached too far east and the state stopped pumping water south. Because of the improvements, there hasn’t been an island flooded by a levee failure in over 20 years.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>For that freshwater to stay fresh, the Delta system has to stay intact, Neudeck said. Otherwise, saltwater encroaches too far upstream. In the past, such as the 1972 Brannan-Andrus flood, the salinity line encroached too far east and the state stopped pumping water south. Because of the improvements, there hasn’t been an island flooded by a levee failure in over 20 years.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Still, Neudeck said California’s leaders are not spending enough money protecting this vital chokepoint. “I’ll be frank, they’re irresponsible,” he said. “It’s just too convenient to forgo expenditures, when their feet haven’t been wet lately.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Still, Neudeck said California’s leaders are not spending enough money protecting this vital chokepoint. “I’ll be frank, they’re irresponsible,” he said. “It’s just too convenient to forgo expenditures, when their feet haven’t been wet lately.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "The Delta of the future",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Delta of the future\u003c/h2>\n",
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"\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Delta of the future\u003c/h2>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Campbell Ingram, executive officer of the Delta Conservancy, a state agency focused on ecosystem restoration in the Delta, acknowledged the improved levees, but said the system is still under threat.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Campbell Ingram, executive officer of the Delta Conservancy, a state agency focused on ecosystem restoration in the Delta, acknowledged the improved levees, but said the system is still under threat.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“That’s absolutely a credit to them and great, but I think many people, myself included, have serious doubts about the long-term viability of the Delta given climate change and increasing sea level rising, increasing storm magnitude,” Ingram said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“That’s absolutely a credit to them and great, but I think many people, myself included, have serious doubts about the long-term viability of the Delta given climate change and increasing sea level rising, increasing storm magnitude,” Ingram said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A report from another state agency, the Delta Stewardship Council, found that by 2085, 21% of the Delta’s population, 68% of its land, $22 billion in assets and more than $5 billion in annual economic activity would be exposed by a 100-year flood event. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A report from another state agency, the Delta Stewardship Council, found that by 2085, 21% of the Delta’s population, 68% of its land, $22 billion in assets and more than $5 billion in annual economic activity would be exposed by a 100-year flood event. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002244\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Conservation Farms and Ranches director, Jerred Dixon, and The Nature Conservancy director of land protection and stewardship speak to a KQED reporter in Thornton on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002244\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Conservation Farms and Ranches director, Jerred Dixon, and The Nature Conservancy director of land protection and stewardship speak to a KQED reporter in Thornton on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>One of the primary problems is that the Delta keeps on sinking. Much of the Delta rests on peat, a spongy soil that, while fertile for farming, risks further subsidence when planted with traditional row crops like corn. “There are a 150,000 acres out there in the center of the Delta between twenty and thirty feet below sea level,” Ingram said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>One of the primary problems is that the Delta keeps on sinking. Much of the Delta rests on peat, a spongy soil that, while fertile for farming, risks further subsidence when planted with traditional row crops like corn. “There are a 150,000 acres out there in the center of the Delta between twenty and thirty feet below sea level,” Ingram said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Jerred Dixon, a fifth-generation Delta farmer, is piloting a way to create a more resilient future on Staten Island. Owned by The Nature Conservancy and managed by Dixon, the island is now an economically viable, wildlife-friendly farm.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Jerred Dixon, a fifth-generation Delta farmer, is piloting a way to create a more resilient future on Staten Island. Owned by The Nature Conservancy and managed by Dixon, the island is now an economically viable, wildlife-friendly farm.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It’s right at the neck of two of the three rivers that feed from the Sacramento River to the San Joaquin for fresh drinking water for the south. And also a kind of a bottleneck for migratory birds,” Dixon said. He described the fragile economic and ecological ecosystem of the Delta alongside his own life, growing up five miles from Staten Island. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“It’s right at the neck of two of the three rivers that feed from the Sacramento River to the San Joaquin for fresh drinking water for the south. And also a kind of a bottleneck for migratory birds,” Dixon said. He described the fragile economic and ecological ecosystem of the Delta alongside his own life, growing up five miles from Staten Island. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“My whole life was spent in the Delta, and it’s kind of a little bit in my blood,” Dixon said with a smile. “This is the last Wild West of California.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002238\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Levees protect Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Dixon parked his truck on top of the levee near the meeting of the North and South forks of the Mokelumne River. He pointed toward little saplings, protected by plastic, on the river side – it costs about $5 million a mile to do this levee rehabilitation, he said, laughing. Then he looked over the island to a conservation easement that protects the migratory birds. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Dixon parked his truck on top of the levee near the meeting of the North and South forks of the Mokelumne River. He pointed toward little saplings, protected by plastic, on the river side – it costs about $5 million a mile to do this levee rehabilitation, he said, laughing. Then he looked over the island to a conservation easement that protects the migratory birds. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re making it that agricultural ridge, but still being able to provide that habitat for the birds and foraging and roosting habitat.” On the mineral soil, he can grow corn and alfalfa and triticale, and toward the lower end, a mixture of rice and wetlands, which prevent further subsidence, sequester carbon, and provide habitat for migrating sandhill cranes.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>A large portion of the global population of cranes spend their winter here in the Delta. “The sun is going down behind Mount Diablo, and there’s 50,000 birds coming in,” said Rodd Kesley, California land program director with The Nature Conservancy, of Staten Island. “It’s magical.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’re making it that agricultural ridge, but still being able to provide that habitat for the birds and foraging and roosting habitat.” On the mineral soil, he can grow corn and alfalfa and triticale, and toward the lower end, a mixture of rice and wetlands, which prevent further subsidence, sequester carbon, and provide habitat for migrating sandhill cranes.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>A large portion of the global population of cranes spend their winter here in the Delta. “The sun is going down behind Mount Diablo, and there’s 50,000 birds coming in,” said Rodd Kesley, California land program director with The Nature Conservancy, of Staten Island. “It’s magical.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“There’s no future of California that’s very bright without the Delta actually being functional and intact in some new ways, not business as usual but toward a future that makes sure we’re still able to deliver the water,” he said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“There’s no future of California that’s very bright without the Delta actually being functional and intact in some new ways, not business as usual but toward a future that makes sure we’re still able to deliver the water,” he said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"text": "‘We’re always kind of on edge’",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’re always kind of on edge’\u003c/h2>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, said the risk of flooding is a fact of life for Delta residents. “We’re always kind of on edge.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, said the risk of flooding is a fact of life for Delta residents. “We’re always kind of on edge.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Delta living means driving long distances to get to grocery stores and other basic needs. And even the frequent, minor flooding can make life difficult. But, over time, you get “used to it,” he said. This year, though, feels different. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Delta living means driving long distances to get to grocery stores and other basic needs. And even the frequent, minor flooding can make life difficult. But, over time, you get “used to it,” he said. This year, though, feels different. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I’ve had a lot of people talk about this El Niño.” He said he hoped for the same minor flooding they deal with every year, instead of what “we always dread about it, the levees breaking.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I’ve had a lot of people talk about this El Niño.” He said he hoped for the same minor flooding they deal with every year, instead of what “we always dread about it, the levees breaking.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002245\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, poses for a portrait in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. Thelen says that he doesn’t have an exact plan for if the roads flood around Walnut Grove.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002245\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, poses for a portrait in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. Thelen says that he doesn’t have an exact plan for if the roads flood around Walnut Grove.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Across the Delta, living with the constant threat of flooding breeds a particular kind of acquiescence and resilience. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We really don’t have anything to stop it in big years,” Dixon said. “One island kinda always goes down in bad years.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We really don’t have anything to stop it in big years,” Dixon said. “One island kinda always goes down in bad years.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t planted crops on one of the smaller islands on his farm because of the flooding risk. “Will somebody flood this year? Probably, somewhere in the Delta. Hopefully not us, but it’s hard to say.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t planted crops on one of the smaller islands on his farm because of the flooding risk. “Will somebody flood this year? Probably, somewhere in the Delta. Hopefully not us, but it’s hard to say.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Back on Twitchell Island, Lickingteller said that they’re ready. “There’ll be 24/7 levee patrols when the waters are high, and it’s constantly raining, winds blowing.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Back on Twitchell Island, Lickingteller said that they’re ready. “There’ll be 24/7 levee patrols when the waters are high, and it’s constantly raining, winds blowing.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>And if a levee were to fail, it would be all hands on deck — farmers, landowners, engineers and emergency response — all working together in an effort they call “flood fighting.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>And if a levee were to fail, it would be all hands on deck — farmers, landowners, engineers and emergency response — all working together in an effort they call “flood fighting.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Things happen quick,” he said. You could be out checking the levee, and everything’s fine, then “five minutes later this whole thing collapsed.”\u003cbr>\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, a pivotal region for state water supply, sits below sea level and behind aging levees. Ahead of potential flooding from “Super El Niño” conditions, residents are worried, but prepared.\n",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Aaron Lickingteller pointed down from the top of one of the westernmost levees in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/tag/sacramento-san-joaquin-delta\">Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta\u003c/a> to the land 25 feet below. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Without constant maintenance work, he said, these levees degrade quickly. “Squirrel holes, dead trees, little leaks, a little bit of erosion. Next thing you know, you’re springing a leak,” he said. “That leak is like a zipper on a pair of pants. You just unzip that, and everything comes out, you know what I mean, or goes in.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Like most Delta islands, Twitchell Island sits below sea level. It is less of an island, more of a bowl. On either side run the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, which together capture about 40% of the state’s runoff. This year, as California faces what experts are calling “Super El Niño” conditions, residents in the Delta are preparing for the prospect of devastating flooding. But they have faced tough conditions before, and while they are readying for worst-case scenarios, some feel a hard-earned confidence that comes from decades of work to improve levees and response systems. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002243\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-20-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kjeldsen, Sinnock and Neudeck, Inc. construction inspector, Aaron Lickingteller, speaks to a KQED reporter in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>But if predictions hold, keeping the water out won’t be an easy task. The volume of water pushing against the Delta’s roughly 1,100 miles of levees — many built by hand more than a hundred years ago — will be much higher. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With warmer ocean temperatures, tide levels and storm surges will rise, and wet, warm storm systems will become stronger and more frequent. In a possible scenario this year, a supercharged King Tide may coincide with an atmospheric river, sending powerful floodwaters downhill from the Sierra Nevada to meet a water level in the Delta up to six feet higher than normal. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Just behind Lickingteller, a cargo ship passed by, its wake breaking against the levee. He walked further along the levee’s interior to a construction site, heavy machinery crawling across the bare, brown earth. “Things have to get messy before they get put back together,” he said. This is the current levee improvement area for KSN, Inc., the engineering company he works for — improvements that never stop. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002247\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-49-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Kay Dix Ranch owner, Daniel Wilson, speaks to a KQED reporter in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>As he explained the risks of this coming winter, the wind gusted from the Carquinez Strait. “By the time the wind comes and smashes the water here, it’s got a lot of force.” If that force is coupled with a high water event, “you’re just looking for a potential catastrophe.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>On the eastern end of the Delta, fifth-generation farmer Daniel Wilson said he has a different set of worries. He leaned on an enormous pear-sorting machine, under a shade awning, away from the sun. Behind him were rows of pear and cherry trees — besides irrigation, no water in sight. While the water on Twitchell Island is always close to the top of the levee, on this eastern side the level is dependent on river flow rate, with much more seasonal variation. Most of the year, Wilson said, water isn’t a threat. But during the winter, large storms send powerful surges of water downstream. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“When it does go that big, it breaks all the levies [upriver] and all hell breaks loose.” Wilson recalled the worst flooding years in recent memory, and said he has “every reason to believe” this year could be worse. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘Their feet haven’t been wet lately’ \u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The Delta, once a 700,000-acre tidal marsh, is no stranger to flooding. In 1972, a levee failure inundated Brannan-Andrus Island, including the historic town of Isleton, causing $20 million in damage. In January of 1983, Mildred Island flooded when King Tides coincided with an atmospheric river, and it remains underwater to this day. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In 1986, more than 30,000 acres of the Delta were flooded, and in 1997, snows from a cold winter storm melted rapidly by rain from a warm atmospheric river, creating floodwaters that ravaged both the Sacramento and San Joaquin systems. That event remains the flood of record for the Delta, flooding Tyler Island, among others. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002241\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-14-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pumps remove water from Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>This episodic flooding, while costing lives and money, has also led to increased funding to strengthen the Delta’s fragile levee system. Chris Neudeck, president of KSN, Inc., said that since 1972, there’s been a marked improvement in the height and quality of levees. One of the reasons for this? Southern California depends on freshwater that flows through the Delta until Tracy, where it’s pumped south. Half of California’s water supply flows through the Delta and is delivered to three out of five Californians.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>For that freshwater to stay fresh, the Delta system has to stay intact, Neudeck said. Otherwise, saltwater encroaches too far upstream. In the past, such as the 1972 Brannan-Andrus flood, the salinity line encroached too far east and the state stopped pumping water south. Because of the improvements, there hasn’t been an island flooded by a levee failure in over 20 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Still, Neudeck said California’s leaders are not spending enough money protecting this vital chokepoint. “I’ll be frank, they’re irresponsible,” he said. “It’s just too convenient to forgo expenditures, when their feet haven’t been wet lately.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Delta of the future\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Campbell Ingram, executive officer of the Delta Conservancy, a state agency focused on ecosystem restoration in the Delta, acknowledged the improved levees, but said the system is still under threat.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That’s absolutely a credit to them and great, but I think many people, myself included, have serious doubts about the long-term viability of the Delta given climate change and increasing sea level rising, increasing storm magnitude,” Ingram said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A report from another state agency, the Delta Stewardship Council, found that by 2085, 21% of the Delta’s population, 68% of its land, $22 billion in assets and more than $5 billion in annual economic activity would be exposed by a 100-year flood event. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002244\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-30-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Conservation Farms and Ranches director, Jerred Dixon, and The Nature Conservancy director of land protection and stewardship speak to a KQED reporter in Thornton on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>One of the primary problems is that the Delta keeps on sinking. Much of the Delta rests on peat, a spongy soil that, while fertile for farming, risks further subsidence when planted with traditional row crops like corn. “There are a 150,000 acres out there in the center of the Delta between twenty and thirty feet below sea level,” Ingram said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Jerred Dixon, a fifth-generation Delta farmer, is piloting a way to create a more resilient future on Staten Island. Owned by The Nature Conservancy and managed by Dixon, the island is now an economically viable, wildlife-friendly farm.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It’s right at the neck of two of the three rivers that feed from the Sacramento River to the San Joaquin for fresh drinking water for the south. And also a kind of a bottleneck for migratory birds,” Dixon said. He described the fragile economic and ecological ecosystem of the Delta alongside his own life, growing up five miles from Staten Island. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“My whole life was spent in the Delta, and it’s kind of a little bit in my blood,” Dixon said with a smile. “This is the last Wild West of California.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002238\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-04-MC-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Levees protect Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Dixon parked his truck on top of the levee near the meeting of the North and South forks of the Mokelumne River. He pointed toward little saplings, protected by plastic, on the river side – it costs about $5 million a mile to do this levee rehabilitation, he said, laughing. Then he looked over the island to a conservation easement that protects the migratory birds. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re making it that agricultural ridge, but still being able to provide that habitat for the birds and foraging and roosting habitat.” On the mineral soil, he can grow corn and alfalfa and triticale, and toward the lower end, a mixture of rice and wetlands, which prevent further subsidence, sequester carbon, and provide habitat for migrating sandhill cranes.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>A large portion of the global population of cranes spend their winter here in the Delta. “The sun is going down behind Mount Diablo, and there’s 50,000 birds coming in,” said Rodd Kesley, California land program director with The Nature Conservancy, of Staten Island. “It’s magical.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“There’s no future of California that’s very bright without the Delta actually being functional and intact in some new ways, not business as usual but toward a future that makes sure we’re still able to deliver the water,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘We’re always kind of on edge’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, said the risk of flooding is a fact of life for Delta residents. “We’re always kind of on edge.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Delta living means driving long distances to get to grocery stores and other basic needs. And even the frequent, minor flooding can make life difficult. But, over time, you get “used to it,” he said. This year, though, feels different. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I’ve had a lot of people talk about this El Niño.” He said he hoped for the same minor flooding they deal with every year, instead of what “we always dread about it, the levees breaking.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002245\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-36-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Zak Thelen, a bartender at Tony’s Place in Walnut Grove, poses for a portrait in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. Thelen says that he doesn’t have an exact plan for if the roads flood around Walnut Grove. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Across the Delta, living with the constant threat of flooding breeds a particular kind of acquiescence and resilience. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We really don’t have anything to stop it in big years,” Dixon said. “One island kinda always goes down in bad years.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t planted crops on one of the smaller islands on his farm because of the flooding risk. “Will somebody flood this year? Probably, somewhere in the Delta. Hopefully not us, but it’s hard to say.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" data-id=\"2002248\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002248\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-51-MC-KQED-1536x1025.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sandbags and water barriers pile up at a flood fight material storage yard in Walnut Grove on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2002239\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002239\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/090326-DeltaFlooding-08-MC-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Levees protect Twitchell Island at the intersection of the San Joaquin River and the Three Mile Slough in Rio Vista on Sept. 3, 2026. (Miles Cull/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Back on Twitchell Island, Lickingteller said that they’re ready. “There’ll be 24/7 levee patrols when the waters are high, and it’s constantly raining, winds blowing.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>And if a levee were to fail, it would be all hands on deck — farmers, landowners, engineers and emergency response — all working together in an effort they call “flood fighting.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Things happen quick,” he said. You could be out checking the levee, and everything’s fine, then “five minutes later this whole thing collapsed.”\u003cbr>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "an-el-nino-driven-kelvin-wave-could-raise-bay-area-sea-levels-and-flooding-risk",
"title": "This Weekend, an El Niño-Driven ‘Kelvin Wave’ Will Raise Bay Area Sea Levels and Flooding Risk",
"publishDate": 1791580483,
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"headTitle": "This Weekend, an El Niño-Driven ‘Kelvin Wave’ Will Raise Bay Area Sea Levels and Flooding Risk | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Scientists warn that a deep ocean wave driven by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">El Niño\u003c/a> conditions could raise \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Bay Area sea levels\u003c/a> by as much as 9 inches by early next week. That’s on top of sea levels already more than \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches above predicted levels\u003c/a> because of warm water along the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ocean scientists in Santa Cruz said they began noticing the change in water levels on Friday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re just beginning to see the first increases in sea levels associated with the current Kelvin wave,” said \u003ca href=\"https://campusdirectory.ucsc.edu/cd_detail?uid=mwbeck\">Mike Beck\u003c/a>, director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz. “By the end of the weekend we should probably see water levels a foot and a half above normal.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Santa Cruz-based swimmer Anna Wolfe-Pauly went swimming with a group at Cowell Beach on Friday morning when she noticed the waves were bigger than normal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I was thinking maybe we need to get out of the water because it felt so severe to me,” Wolfe-Pauly said. “My friends were swimming about 200 yards ahead of me, and then all of a sudden I just couldn’t see them anymore, and I was like, that is a lot of water that just descended on the beach.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1364\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523373-scaled-e1753215508590.jpg\" alt=\"A man wearing a white bike helmet, yellow jacket and black pants rides through several inches of water on a submerged bike trail. Hills and clouds are in the foreground.\" class=\"wp-image-1982386\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An aerial picture taken Jan. 3, 2022, shows a man riding a bike along a flooded Sausalito/Mill Valley bike path during a king tide in Mill Valley. King tides occur when the Earth, moon and sun align in orbit to produce unusually high water levels and can cause local tidal flooding. Over time, sea level rise is raising the height of tidal systems. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers call the pulse of water moving up to the coast a “Kelvin wave” and said it will deliver even more El Niño-associated warm water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University who studies how climate change affects waters off the U.S. coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall into winter, according to an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October outlook\u003c/a> from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">stormier weather\u003c/a>, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer with the U.S. Geological Survey, said it can also trigger Kelvin waves deep in the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The energy first moves toward South America, and when it hits land, it splits and shifts north and south. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A Kelvin wave isn’t a surface wave like a tsunami or a “wall of water that’s moving up the coast or a wave that you can surf or that you’re going to see from the beach or from a boat,” Amaya said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But rather, it’s “a disturbance inside the ocean” moving up the coastline a little bit like the wave that travels around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The wave travels around the stadium, but the people don’t run around,” Fournier said. “The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise deepening the warm layer of the ocean.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">an El Niño year\u003c/a>, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from days to weeks to months. Amaya said a first Kelvin wave moved up the coastline in May and June. A second wave is traveling about 6 miles per hour northward along the California coastline. Amaya said signs suggest a third wave is propagating around the equator. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers worry that the extra push from these Kelvin waves alone will flood coastal areas, worsen erosion and challenge places like Santa Cruz or Pacifica with old sea walls that wrap along the water’s edge. But if the waves arrive during high tide or storms, scientists say flooding could hit low-lying areas like Santa Cruz, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> or downtown San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The real concern is an increase in water levels when they come with really extreme wave events, and by the time we get to December, when we get our highest tides of the year, that’s when I have really great concerns,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Vitousek said high tides, called spring tides, will push above 6 feet around Oct. 11 and peak on Oct. 27 at 6.68 feet along San Francisco. King tides in late November could rise over 7 feet, and that will be “on top of the Kelvin wave,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1348\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-1536x1035.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That can create a situation where water is getting above critical thresholds that can cause more flooding, more cliff erosion, more dune erosion, more beach erosion,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Amaya said he wants to “temper expectations” and said the Kelvin wave is still weeks away from impacting the region.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I’ve seen some people who are so concerned that they’re like making a run at Costco for water bottles, but that’s not where we’re at yet,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fournier wants people to understand that this Kelvin wave results from El Niño conditions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Whatever impacts we see in California, they’re a consequence, but El Niño is not coming,” Fournier said. “Sometimes people can’t differentiate the two.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ocean scientists in Santa Cruz said they began noticing the change in water levels on Friday. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re just beginning to see the first increases in sea levels associated with the current Kelvin wave,” said \u003ca href=\"https://campusdirectory.ucsc.edu/cd_detail?uid=mwbeck\">Mike Beck\u003c/a>, director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz. “By the end of the weekend we should probably see water levels a foot and a half above normal.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We’re just beginning to see the first increases in sea levels associated with the current Kelvin wave,” said \u003ca href=\"https://campusdirectory.ucsc.edu/cd_detail?uid=mwbeck\">Mike Beck\u003c/a>, director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz. “By the end of the weekend we should probably see water levels a foot and a half above normal.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Santa Cruz-based swimmer Anna Wolfe-Pauly went swimming with a group at Cowell Beach on Friday morning when she noticed the waves were bigger than normal.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I was thinking maybe we need to get out of the water because it felt so severe to me,” Wolfe-Pauly said. “My friends were swimming about 200 yards ahead of me, and then all of a sudden I just couldn’t see them anymore, and I was like, that is a lot of water that just descended on the beach.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I was thinking maybe we need to get out of the water because it felt so severe to me,” Wolfe-Pauly said. “My friends were swimming about 200 yards ahead of me, and then all of a sudden I just couldn’t see them anymore, and I was like, that is a lot of water that just descended on the beach.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523373-scaled-e1753215508590.jpg\" alt=\"A man wearing a white bike helmet, yellow jacket and black pants rides through several inches of water on a submerged bike trail. Hills and clouds are in the foreground.\" class=\"wp-image-1982386\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An aerial picture taken Jan. 3, 2022, shows a man riding a bike along a flooded Sausalito/Mill Valley bike path during a king tide in Mill Valley. King tides occur when the Earth, moon and sun align in orbit to produce unusually high water levels and can cause local tidal flooding. Over time, sea level rise is raising the height of tidal systems.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers call the pulse of water moving up to the coast a “Kelvin wave” and said it will deliver even more El Niño-associated warm water. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University who studies how climate change affects waters off the U.S. coast. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>There’s an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall into winter, according to an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October outlook\u003c/a> from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>There’s an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall into winter, according to an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October outlook\u003c/a> from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">stormier weather\u003c/a>, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">stormier weather\u003c/a>, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer with the U.S. Geological Survey, said it can also trigger Kelvin waves deep in the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The energy first moves toward South America, and when it hits land, it splits and shifts north and south. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>A Kelvin wave isn’t a surface wave like a tsunami or a “wall of water that’s moving up the coast or a wave that you can surf or that you’re going to see from the beach or from a boat,” Amaya said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>A Kelvin wave isn’t a surface wave like a tsunami or a “wall of water that’s moving up the coast or a wave that you can surf or that you’re going to see from the beach or from a boat,” Amaya said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>But rather, it’s “a disturbance inside the ocean” moving up the coastline a little bit like the wave that travels around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>But rather, it’s “a disturbance inside the ocean” moving up the coastline a little bit like the wave that travels around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The wave travels around the stadium, but the people don’t run around,” Fournier said. “The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise deepening the warm layer of the ocean.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The wave travels around the stadium, but the people don’t run around,” Fournier said. “The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise deepening the warm layer of the ocean.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>During \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">an El Niño year\u003c/a>, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from days to weeks to months. Amaya said a first Kelvin wave moved up the coastline in May and June. A second wave is traveling about 6 miles per hour northward along the California coastline. Amaya said signs suggest a third wave is propagating around the equator. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>During \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">an El Niño year\u003c/a>, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from days to weeks to months. Amaya said a first Kelvin wave moved up the coastline in May and June. A second wave is traveling about 6 miles per hour northward along the California coastline. Amaya said signs suggest a third wave is propagating around the equator. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Researchers worry that the extra push from these Kelvin waves alone will flood coastal areas, worsen erosion and challenge places like Santa Cruz or Pacifica with old sea walls that wrap along the water’s edge. But if the waves arrive during high tide or storms, scientists say flooding could hit low-lying areas like Santa Cruz, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> or downtown San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Researchers worry that the extra push from these Kelvin waves alone will flood coastal areas, worsen erosion and challenge places like Santa Cruz or Pacifica with old sea walls that wrap along the water’s edge. But if the waves arrive during high tide or storms, scientists say flooding could hit low-lying areas like Santa Cruz, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> or downtown San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The real concern is an increase in water levels when they come with really extreme wave events, and by the time we get to December, when we get our highest tides of the year, that’s when I have really great concerns,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The real concern is an increase in water levels when they come with really extreme wave events, and by the time we get to December, when we get our highest tides of the year, that’s when I have really great concerns,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Vitousek said high tides, called spring tides, will push above 6 feet around Oct. 11 and peak on Oct. 27 at 6.68 feet along San Francisco. King tides in late November could rise over 7 feet, and that will be “on top of the Kelvin wave,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Vitousek said high tides, called spring tides, will push above 6 feet around Oct. 11 and peak on Oct. 27 at 6.68 feet along San Francisco. King tides in late November could rise over 7 feet, and that will be “on top of the Kelvin wave,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-1536x1035.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“That can create a situation where water is getting above critical thresholds that can cause more flooding, more cliff erosion, more dune erosion, more beach erosion,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Amaya said he wants to “temper expectations” and said the Kelvin wave is still weeks away from impacting the region.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I’ve seen some people who are so concerned that they’re like making a run at Costco for water bottles, but that’s not where we’re at yet,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Fournier wants people to understand that this Kelvin wave results from El Niño conditions.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Whatever impacts we see in California, they’re a consequence, but El Niño is not coming,” Fournier said. “Sometimes people can’t differentiate the two.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "The deep-ocean wave could push Bay Area tides up by a foot in October.",
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"title": "This Weekend, an El Niño-Driven ‘Kelvin Wave’ Will Raise Bay Area Sea Levels and Flooding Risk | KQED",
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"headline": "This Weekend, an El Niño-Driven ‘Kelvin Wave’ Will Raise Bay Area Sea Levels and Flooding Risk",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Scientists warn that a deep ocean wave driven by \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">El Niño\u003c/a> conditions could raise \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2001688/strong-el-nino-may-bring-record-sea-level-and-coastal-flooding-to-bay-area\">Bay Area sea levels\u003c/a> by as much as 9 inches by early next week. That’s on top of sea levels already more than \u003ca href=\"https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9414290\">6 inches above predicted levels\u003c/a> because of warm water along the West Coast.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Ocean scientists in Santa Cruz said they began noticing the change in water levels on Friday. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re just beginning to see the first increases in sea levels associated with the current Kelvin wave,” said \u003ca href=\"https://campusdirectory.ucsc.edu/cd_detail?uid=mwbeck\">Mike Beck\u003c/a>, director of the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at UC Santa Cruz. “By the end of the weekend we should probably see water levels a foot and a half above normal.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Santa Cruz-based swimmer Anna Wolfe-Pauly went swimming with a group at Cowell Beach on Friday morning when she noticed the waves were bigger than normal.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I was thinking maybe we need to get out of the water because it felt so severe to me,” Wolfe-Pauly said. “My friends were swimming about 200 yards ahead of me, and then all of a sudden I just couldn’t see them anymore, and I was like, that is a lot of water that just descended on the beach.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1364\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2028/06/GettyImages-1237523373-scaled-e1753215508590.jpg\" alt=\"A man wearing a white bike helmet, yellow jacket and black pants rides through several inches of water on a submerged bike trail. Hills and clouds are in the foreground.\" class=\"wp-image-1982386\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An aerial picture taken Jan. 3, 2022, shows a man riding a bike along a flooded Sausalito/Mill Valley bike path during a king tide in Mill Valley. King tides occur when the Earth, moon and sun align in orbit to produce unusually high water levels and can cause local tidal flooding. Over time, sea level rise is raising the height of tidal systems. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers call the pulse of water moving up to the coast a “Kelvin wave” and said it will deliver even more El Niño-associated warm water. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Kelvin waves are a symptom of El Niño,” said Dillon Amaya, a professor at North Carolina State University who studies how climate change affects waters off the U.S. coast. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>There’s an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño will become “historic” this fall into winter, according to an \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml\">October outlook\u003c/a> from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>El Niño is marked by warming in the Pacific Ocean’s surface layer. When tropical trade winds weaken or reverse, warm ocean water near Asia can slosh toward the Pacific Coast. That warming has many effects: it can reshape the jet stream and bring \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12087122/el-nino-is-here-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-bay-area-this-winter\">stormier weather\u003c/a>, disrupt the ocean’s nutrient-rich upwelling, heat coastal waters, raise sea levels and stress marine life. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sean Vitousek, a research oceanographer with the U.S. Geological Survey, said it can also trigger Kelvin waves deep in the Pacific Ocean. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The energy first moves toward South America, and when it hits land, it splits and shifts north and south. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>A Kelvin wave isn’t a surface wave like a tsunami or a “wall of water that’s moving up the coast or a wave that you can surf or that you’re going to see from the beach or from a boat,” Amaya said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>But rather, it’s “a disturbance inside the ocean” moving up the coastline a little bit like the wave that travels around a sports stadium, said Severine Fournier, an ocean scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The wave travels around the stadium, but the people don’t run around,” Fournier said. “The disturbance gets passed to the next person, and that disturbance is the sea level rise deepening the warm layer of the ocean.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>During \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12100741/a-powerful-el-nino-is-brewing-newsom-wants-california-ready-for-the-worst\">an El Niño year\u003c/a>, as many as six Kelvin waves can occur, and the temporarily high seas can last from days to weeks to months. Amaya said a first Kelvin wave moved up the coastline in May and June. A second wave is traveling about 6 miles per hour northward along the California coastline. Amaya said signs suggest a third wave is propagating around the equator. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Researchers worry that the extra push from these Kelvin waves alone will flood coastal areas, worsen erosion and challenge places like Santa Cruz or Pacifica with old sea walls that wrap along the water’s edge. But if the waves arrive during high tide or storms, scientists say flooding could hit low-lying areas like Santa Cruz, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999871/after-king-tides-swamp-marin-san-rafael-weighs-billion-dollar-defenses-against-the-bay\">Marin County\u003c/a> or downtown San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The real concern is an increase in water levels when they come with really extreme wave events, and by the time we get to December, when we get our highest tides of the year, that’s when I have really great concerns,” Beck said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Vitousek said high tides, called spring tides, will push above 6 feet around Oct. 11 and peak on Oct. 27 at 6.68 feet along San Francisco. King tides in late November could rise over 7 feet, and that will be “on top of the Kelvin wave,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1348\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2000074\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-160x108.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-768x518.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/02/FloodingCorteMaderaGetty-1536x1035.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pedestrians walk through floodwaters on Jan. 5, 2026, in Corte Madera. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That can create a situation where water is getting above critical thresholds that can cause more flooding, more cliff erosion, more dune erosion, more beach erosion,” Vitousek said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Amaya said he wants to “temper expectations” and said the Kelvin wave is still weeks away from impacting the region.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I’ve seen some people who are so concerned that they’re like making a run at Costco for water bottles, but that’s not where we’re at yet,” Amaya said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Fournier wants people to understand that this Kelvin wave results from El Niño conditions.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Whatever impacts we see in California, they’re a consequence, but El Niño is not coming,” Fournier said. “Sometimes people can’t differentiate the two.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "san-franciscos-next-district-10-supervisor-will-inherit-a-toxic-legacy",
"title": "San Francisco’s Next District 10 Supervisor Will Inherit a Toxic Legacy",
"publishDate": 1791471600,
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"headTitle": "San Francisco’s Next District 10 Supervisor Will Inherit a Toxic Legacy | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the Hunters View housing project, San Francisco resident Joanne Abernathy can look out on two versions of the city: the radioactive, industrial legacy of the city’s past at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">Hunters Point Naval Shipyard\u003c/a> and a technology-driven future rising in downtown skyscrapers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abernathy grew up taking in this juxtaposition while walking up the hill from her family home in Bayview; her mom later lived in housing atop the slope.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“You can see everything from up here,” Abernathy said. “You can see the Bay Bridge, and when it’s the Fourth of July you can stand up here and see the fireworks.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://huntersview.info/\">Hunters View\u003c/a> was originally built as temporary housing for shipyard workers. Residents there have long had to advocate for themselves at City Hall, most recently as the promise of thousands of new homes in the city’s southeast corner threatens to push them out. And in the decadeslong cleanup of the contaminated shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abernathy hopes whoever wins the District 10 supervisor race in November will be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">neighborhood’s\u003c/a> voice. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001940\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidates (from left) Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter, Theo Ellington, and J.R. Eppler participate in a debate at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House in San Francisco on Sept. 1, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We need to focus on a supervisor that’s going to stand up for us, because we’re almost one foot in the ground and one foot on the curb,” Abernathy said. “We need the community to have a say-so in [the cleanup]. Build around the community and stop just building around City Hall.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The race to replace Supervisor Shamann Walton comes at a pivotal moment for District 10, a large area on the city’s southeastern edge, as the environmental cleanup of the shipyard continues alongside plans to transform the site into housing, parks and business space. Walton’s replacement will inherit the task of advocating for the neighborhoods most affected by contamination, while also shaping what may become the city’s largest redevelopment projects.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/voterguide/sanfrancisco/supervisor-10th-district\">Nine candidates\u003c/a> are vying to represent the sprawling district from Potrero Hill through Bayview to Vistacion Valley. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098461/crypto-ceo-chris-larsen-donates-500000-to-support-political-moderate-in-supervisors-race\">race has caught the attention of the city’s biggest political funders\u003c/a>, like crypto billionaire Chris Larsen, who donated an eye-popping $500,000 to moderate Democrat Theo Ellington’s campaign. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The next supervisor should think about our health, and think about all the people that have been lost to cancer,” Abernathy said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the Cold War, the 866-acre shipyard’s soil and groundwater were contaminated with radioactive chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum fuels from ships brought there after atomic bomb tests. In 1989, the base was declared one of the nation’s most contaminated sites.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the cleanup concludes — potentially in the middle of the next decade — the city plans to allow developers to reinvent the shipyard. When finished, the 693-acre \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project\u003c/a> could include more than 10,000 housing units, two new waterfront neighborhoods and more than 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past city-led health surveys found that cancer “is \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfenvironment.org/sites/default/files/fliers/files/sfe_ej_sfhh_community_health_status_assessment.pdf\">a major cause of years of life lost\u003c/a> in Bayview Hunters Point,” but the city did not look into whether contamination at the shipyard contributed to these health problems\u003cstrong>.\u003c/strong> Residents are documenting their health conditions, and a local doctor has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">tested people to catalog who has been exposed\u003c/a> to dangerous chemicals. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rachel Brahinsky, a University of San Francisco professor in urban studies and politics, said the next supervisor will need to actively “shine a light” on how the Superfund site is a “tremendous liability” that should be viewed as a “San Francisco problem.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They won’t “be treated as a central protagonist in the future of the city,” Brahinsky said. “They have to insist on it and make themselves and their neighborhood be seen in that way. History shows that that person will be sidelined if they don’t step up.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘This is a city-wide issue’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Standing on the worn granite steps of City Hall in June, environmental advocates called on city leaders to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12088662/toxic-land-protest-targets-sf-housing-plans-at-contaminated-hunters-point-naval-shipyard\">push for a full cleanup\u003c/a> at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rally followed the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999631/navy-apologizes-for-11-month-delay-in-reporting-radioactive-material-at-hunters-point\">U.S. Navy’\u003c/a>s disclosure this spring that it found a cabinet filled with several hundred radiological items at the shipyard, the latest discovery at the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two candidates for supervisor took to the microphone: Ellington and Dion-Jay “D.J.” Brookter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001943\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter crushes grapes at Gratta Wines during Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ellington grew up in Bayview and leads the Ruth Williams Opera House, a performing arts and cultural center located there. He said the fight is personal because he lives with his family within the shipyards’ footprint. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If you want to protect the people, then you must protect the land,” Ellington said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter is a community advocate and former local nonprofit leader who moved to the neighborhood 16 years ago. He said the city needs to invest in the existing neighborhoods around Bayview, not just focus on building new housing. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We are asking for what every family in San Francisco has the right to: clean land, honest science, a transparent government, and a future where our health is not sacrificed for someone else’s timeline,” Brookter said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three candidates have \u003ca href=\"https://campaign.sfethics.org/elections/2026-11-03/contests/bos10.html\">raised the most money\u003c/a>, so far — Ellington, Brookter, and J.R. Eppler — and all told KQED the shipyard would be a main focus. However, none explicitly listed it among their top three priorities.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2001939\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001939\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate J.R. Eppler talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2001936\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001936\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Theo Ellington speaks with Sandra O’Neil at Punkin’s 1 Stop Beauty Bar while campaigning in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 21, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ellington ranked housing, economic development and transportation as the most important issues. But decades of stalled and \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1993505/cleanup-of-san-francisco-superfund-site-has-been-badly-mishandled-lawsuit-alleges\">scandal-plagued cleanup efforts\u003c/a>, he said, have taught residents that “nobody takes anyone’s word” about how the Navy cleans up the site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As supervisor, Ellington would push for independent testing before land is transferred to developers, greater transparency and community involvement.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We have to use every rule in the book to push the Navy to do their part, and make sure this development is safe,” Ellington said, adding that he would fight for health screenings, because “exposure records kept today are the evidence families will need tomorrow.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter’s top three priorities include: housing stability, economic opportunity and effective government. On the shipyard, he said the “burden is on the government to prove” the land is safe.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This is a city-wide issue,” Brookter said. “I want to bring my colleagues here to say, look, this is what San Franciscans are facing.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter said he would fight for an independent review of the cleanup and ensure the community has “meaningful decision-making” in what happens next.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eppler describes his top three priorities as “building complete, vibrant, and connected neighborhoods.” On the shipyard, he told KQED the community needs more transparency from the Navy and regulatory agencies overseeing the cleanup. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Navy officials have \u003ca href=\"https://www.navfac.navy.mil/Home/News-Detail/Article/4228126/navy-begins-final-soil-cleanup-at-former-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-warehouse/\">said\u003c/a> they are dedicated to ensuring the site is safe, environmentally sound, and benefits the surrounding community as it moves toward redevelopment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Residents should not be expected to take the Navy, its contractors, or City Hall at their word,” Eppler said. “I would push for every parcel to be cleaned to a residential standard and independently verified before it is transferred, opened to the public, or developed.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eppler said the cleanup should not be rushed. Still, other areas could be redeveloped in the meantime because “District 10 should not have to choose between protecting public health and creating economic opportunity.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The city needs to rediscover the southeast,” Eppler said. “We’ve built the arsenal of democracy at the shipyard. It’s time for us to be on the map of San Francisco.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The district is ‘not forgotten’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gail Hampton lives in senior housing on the hill overlooking the shipyard. She moved to the district more than half a century ago.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The next supervisor needs to pay more attention to the shipyard, period,” Hampton said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonia Randell, a Bayview environmental advocate and resident, said the next supervisor must understand that the “environment has to be protected” if the neighborhood is going to thrive — especially as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11979473/us-navy-acknowledges-toxic-groundwater-rising-in-bayview-hunters-point\">future floodwaters could expose the community\u003c/a> to further harm from the toxic site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001945\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Theo Ellington campaigns in the Bayview in San Francisco on Aug. 21, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If someone who’s in that office doesn’t understand that, doesn’t attend the meetings or listen to the experts, then we’re gonna be cooked,” Randell said. “It’s a beautiful place, but it has underlying secrets that are deadly.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arieann Harrison, executive director of the Marie Harrison Community Foundation, said she will miss Walton’s leadership.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“He has shown the community that he’s willing to step up and be a part of the actions that we are taking,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harrison has helped spearhead a campaign for community oversight, independent testing, cleanup to the highest standards, reparations for impacted residents and long-term monitoring. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">She worries development could shift demographics and reduce representation for existing residents. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001938\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We will probably not have any representation moving forward after this election, that is, us — Black or people of color — because of the influx of money,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brahinsky, who is writing a book about Bayview environmental leaders, said: “The future is not written yet.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I think there is still an opportunity because people like [Harrison] are pushing on the outcomes at the shipyard,” Brahinsky said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brahinsky hopes the district elects someone “who will represent the underdogs” and is “willing to keep pressure on continuously.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Sometimes that means someone who’s not worried about what’s next for them politically,” Brahinsky said. “The district is, in some ways, the last industrial heart of San Francisco. In that sense, it’s not forgotten at all and is central to the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Abernathy grew up taking in this juxtaposition while walking up the hill from her family home in Bayview; her mom later lived in housing atop the slope.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“You can see everything from up here,” Abernathy said. “You can see the Bay Bridge, and when it’s the Fourth of July you can stand up here and see the fireworks.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“You can see everything from up here,” Abernathy said. “You can see the Bay Bridge, and when it’s the Fourth of July you can stand up here and see the fireworks.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://huntersview.info/\">Hunters View\u003c/a> was originally built as temporary housing for shipyard workers. Residents there have long had to advocate for themselves at City Hall, most recently as the promise of thousands of new homes in the city’s southeast corner threatens to push them out. And in the decadeslong cleanup of the contaminated shipyard.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://huntersview.info/\">Hunters View\u003c/a> was originally built as temporary housing for shipyard workers. Residents there have long had to advocate for themselves at City Hall, most recently as the promise of thousands of new homes in the city’s southeast corner threatens to push them out. And in the decadeslong cleanup of the contaminated shipyard.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Abernathy hopes whoever wins the District 10 supervisor race in November will be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">neighborhood’s\u003c/a> voice. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Abernathy hopes whoever wins the District 10 supervisor race in November will be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">neighborhood’s\u003c/a> voice. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001940\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidates (from left) Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter, Theo Ellington, and J.R. Eppler participate in a debate at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House in San Francisco on Sept. 1, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001940\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidates (from left) Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter, Theo Ellington, and J.R. Eppler participate in a debate at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House in San Francisco on Sept. 1, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We need to focus on a supervisor that’s going to stand up for us, because we’re almost one foot in the ground and one foot on the curb,” Abernathy said. “We need the community to have a say-so in [the cleanup]. Build around the community and stop just building around City Hall.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We need to focus on a supervisor that’s going to stand up for us, because we’re almost one foot in the ground and one foot on the curb,” Abernathy said. “We need the community to have a say-so in [the cleanup]. Build around the community and stop just building around City Hall.” \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The race to replace Supervisor Shamann Walton comes at a pivotal moment for District 10, a large area on the city’s southeastern edge, as the environmental cleanup of the shipyard continues alongside plans to transform the site into housing, parks and business space. Walton’s replacement will inherit the task of advocating for the neighborhoods most affected by contamination, while also shaping what may become the city’s largest redevelopment projects.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The race to replace Supervisor Shamann Walton comes at a pivotal moment for District 10, a large area on the city’s southeastern edge, as the environmental cleanup of the shipyard continues alongside plans to transform the site into housing, parks and business space. Walton’s replacement will inherit the task of advocating for the neighborhoods most affected by contamination, while also shaping what may become the city’s largest redevelopment projects.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/voterguide/sanfrancisco/supervisor-10th-district\">Nine candidates\u003c/a> are vying to represent the sprawling district from Potrero Hill through Bayview to Vistacion Valley. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098461/crypto-ceo-chris-larsen-donates-500000-to-support-political-moderate-in-supervisors-race\">race has caught the attention of the city’s biggest political funders\u003c/a>, like crypto billionaire Chris Larsen, who donated an eye-popping $500,000 to moderate Democrat Theo Ellington’s campaign. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/voterguide/sanfrancisco/supervisor-10th-district\">Nine candidates\u003c/a> are vying to represent the sprawling district from Potrero Hill through Bayview to Vistacion Valley. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098461/crypto-ceo-chris-larsen-donates-500000-to-support-political-moderate-in-supervisors-race\">race has caught the attention of the city’s biggest political funders\u003c/a>, like crypto billionaire Chris Larsen, who donated an eye-popping $500,000 to moderate Democrat Theo Ellington’s campaign. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The next supervisor should think about our health, and think about all the people that have been lost to cancer,” Abernathy said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The next supervisor should think about our health, and think about all the people that have been lost to cancer,” Abernathy said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>During the Cold War, the 866-acre shipyard’s soil and groundwater were contaminated with radioactive chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum fuels from ships brought there after atomic bomb tests. In 1989, the base was declared one of the nation’s most contaminated sites.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>During the Cold War, the 866-acre shipyard’s soil and groundwater were contaminated with radioactive chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum fuels from ships brought there after atomic bomb tests. In 1989, the base was declared one of the nation’s most contaminated sites.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>After the cleanup concludes — potentially in the middle of the next decade — the city plans to allow developers to reinvent the shipyard. When finished, the 693-acre \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project\u003c/a> could include more than 10,000 housing units, two new waterfront neighborhoods and more than 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>After the cleanup concludes — potentially in the middle of the next decade — the city plans to allow developers to reinvent the shipyard. When finished, the 693-acre \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project\u003c/a> could include more than 10,000 housing units, two new waterfront neighborhoods and more than 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Past city-led health surveys found that cancer “is \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfenvironment.org/sites/default/files/fliers/files/sfe_ej_sfhh_community_health_status_assessment.pdf\">a major cause of years of life lost\u003c/a> in Bayview Hunters Point,” but the city did not look into whether contamination at the shipyard contributed to these health problems\u003cstrong>.\u003c/strong> Residents are documenting their health conditions, and a local doctor has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">tested people to catalog who has been exposed\u003c/a> to dangerous chemicals. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Past city-led health surveys found that cancer “is \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfenvironment.org/sites/default/files/fliers/files/sfe_ej_sfhh_community_health_status_assessment.pdf\">a major cause of years of life lost\u003c/a> in Bayview Hunters Point,” but the city did not look into whether contamination at the shipyard contributed to these health problems\u003cstrong>.\u003c/strong> Residents are documenting their health conditions, and a local doctor has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">tested people to catalog who has been exposed\u003c/a> to dangerous chemicals. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Rachel Brahinsky, a University of San Francisco professor in urban studies and politics, said the next supervisor will need to actively “shine a light” on how the Superfund site is a “tremendous liability” that should be viewed as a “San Francisco problem.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>They won’t “be treated as a central protagonist in the future of the city,” Brahinsky said. “They have to insist on it and make themselves and their neighborhood be seen in that way. History shows that that person will be sidelined if they don’t step up.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Standing on the worn granite steps of City Hall in June, environmental advocates called on city leaders to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12088662/toxic-land-protest-targets-sf-housing-plans-at-contaminated-hunters-point-naval-shipyard\">push for a full cleanup\u003c/a> at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Two candidates for supervisor took to the microphone: Ellington and Dion-Jay “D.J.” Brookter. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001943\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter crushes grapes at Gratta Wines during Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ellington grew up in Bayview and leads the Ruth Williams Opera House, a performing arts and cultural center located there. He said the fight is personal because he lives with his family within the shipyards’ footprint. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If you want to protect the people, then you must protect the land,” Ellington said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brookter is a community advocate and former local nonprofit leader who moved to the neighborhood 16 years ago. He said the city needs to invest in the existing neighborhoods around Bayview, not just focus on building new housing. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We are asking for what every family in San Francisco has the right to: clean land, honest science, a transparent government, and a future where our health is not sacrificed for someone else’s timeline,” Brookter said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Three candidates have \u003ca href=\"https://campaign.sfethics.org/elections/2026-11-03/contests/bos10.html\">raised the most money\u003c/a>, so far — Ellington, Brookter, and J.R. Eppler — and all told KQED the shipyard would be a main focus. However, none explicitly listed it among their top three priorities.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Ellington ranked housing, economic development and transportation as the most important issues. But decades of stalled and \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1993505/cleanup-of-san-francisco-superfund-site-has-been-badly-mishandled-lawsuit-alleges\">scandal-plagued cleanup efforts\u003c/a>, he said, have taught residents that “nobody takes anyone’s word” about how the Navy cleans up the site. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As supervisor, Ellington would push for independent testing before land is transferred to developers, greater transparency and community involvement.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We have to use every rule in the book to push the Navy to do their part, and make sure this development is safe,” Ellington said, adding that he would fight for health screenings, because “exposure records kept today are the evidence families will need tomorrow.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brookter’s top three priorities include: housing stability, economic opportunity and effective government. On the shipyard, he said the “burden is on the government to prove” the land is safe.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This is a city-wide issue,” Brookter said. “I want to bring my colleagues here to say, look, this is what San Franciscans are facing.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brookter said he would fight for an independent review of the cleanup and ensure the community has “meaningful decision-making” in what happens next.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Brookter said he would fight for an independent review of the cleanup and ensure the community has “meaningful decision-making” in what happens next.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Eppler describes his top three priorities as “building complete, vibrant, and connected neighborhoods.” On the shipyard, he told KQED the community needs more transparency from the Navy and regulatory agencies overseeing the cleanup. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Navy officials have \u003ca href=\"https://www.navfac.navy.mil/Home/News-Detail/Article/4228126/navy-begins-final-soil-cleanup-at-former-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-warehouse/\">said\u003c/a> they are dedicated to ensuring the site is safe, environmentally sound, and benefits the surrounding community as it moves toward redevelopment. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Eppler describes his top three priorities as “building complete, vibrant, and connected neighborhoods.” On the shipyard, he told KQED the community needs more transparency from the Navy and regulatory agencies overseeing the cleanup. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Navy officials have \u003ca href=\"https://www.navfac.navy.mil/Home/News-Detail/Article/4228126/navy-begins-final-soil-cleanup-at-former-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-warehouse/\">said\u003c/a> they are dedicated to ensuring the site is safe, environmentally sound, and benefits the surrounding community as it moves toward redevelopment. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Residents should not be expected to take the Navy, its contractors, or City Hall at their word,” Eppler said. “I would push for every parcel to be cleaned to a residential standard and independently verified before it is transferred, opened to the public, or developed.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Residents should not be expected to take the Navy, its contractors, or City Hall at their word,” Eppler said. “I would push for every parcel to be cleaned to a residential standard and independently verified before it is transferred, opened to the public, or developed.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Eppler said the cleanup should not be rushed. Still, other areas could be redeveloped in the meantime because “District 10 should not have to choose between protecting public health and creating economic opportunity.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The city needs to rediscover the southeast,” Eppler said. “We’ve built the arsenal of democracy at the shipyard. It’s time for us to be on the map of San Francisco.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Gail Hampton lives in senior housing on the hill overlooking the shipyard. She moved to the district more than half a century ago.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The next supervisor needs to pay more attention to the shipyard, period,” Hampton said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Tonia Randell, a Bayview environmental advocate and resident, said the next supervisor must understand that the “environment has to be protected” if the neighborhood is going to thrive — especially as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11979473/us-navy-acknowledges-toxic-groundwater-rising-in-bayview-hunters-point\">future floodwaters could expose the community\u003c/a> to further harm from the toxic site. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Tonia Randell, a Bayview environmental advocate and resident, said the next supervisor must understand that the “environment has to be protected” if the neighborhood is going to thrive — especially as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11979473/us-navy-acknowledges-toxic-groundwater-rising-in-bayview-hunters-point\">future floodwaters could expose the community\u003c/a> to further harm from the toxic site. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“If someone who’s in that office doesn’t understand that, doesn’t attend the meetings or listen to the experts, then we’re gonna be cooked,” Randell said. “It’s a beautiful place, but it has underlying secrets that are deadly.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“If someone who’s in that office doesn’t understand that, doesn’t attend the meetings or listen to the experts, then we’re gonna be cooked,” Randell said. “It’s a beautiful place, but it has underlying secrets that are deadly.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Arieann Harrison, executive director of the Marie Harrison Community Foundation, said she will miss Walton’s leadership.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“He has shown the community that he’s willing to step up and be a part of the actions that we are taking,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“He has shown the community that he’s willing to step up and be a part of the actions that we are taking,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Harrison has helped spearhead a campaign for community oversight, independent testing, cleanup to the highest standards, reparations for impacted residents and long-term monitoring. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Harrison has helped spearhead a campaign for community oversight, independent testing, cleanup to the highest standards, reparations for impacted residents and long-term monitoring. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She worries development could shift demographics and reduce representation for existing residents. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She worries development could shift demographics and reduce representation for existing residents. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001938\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001938\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We will probably not have any representation moving forward after this election, that is, us — Black or people of color — because of the influx of money,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“We will probably not have any representation moving forward after this election, that is, us — Black or people of color — because of the influx of money,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brahinsky, who is writing a book about Bayview environmental leaders, said: “The future is not written yet.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Brahinsky, who is writing a book about Bayview environmental leaders, said: “The future is not written yet.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I think there is still an opportunity because people like [Harrison] are pushing on the outcomes at the shipyard,” Brahinsky said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“I think there is still an opportunity because people like [Harrison] are pushing on the outcomes at the shipyard,” Brahinsky said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Brahinsky hopes the district elects someone “who will represent the underdogs” and is “willing to keep pressure on continuously.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Sometimes that means someone who’s not worried about what’s next for them politically,” Brahinsky said. “The district is, in some ways, the last industrial heart of San Francisco. In that sense, it’s not forgotten at all and is central to the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Sometimes that means someone who’s not worried about what’s next for them politically,” Brahinsky said. “The district is, in some ways, the last industrial heart of San Francisco. In that sense, it’s not forgotten at all and is central to the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"excerpt": "Bayview residents want San Francisco’s next District 10 supervisor to keep pressure on the Hunters Point cleanup.",
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"title": "San Francisco’s Next District 10 Supervisor Will Inherit a Toxic Legacy | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the Hunters View housing project, San Francisco resident Joanne Abernathy can look out on two versions of the city: the radioactive, industrial legacy of the city’s past at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">Hunters Point Naval Shipyard\u003c/a> and a technology-driven future rising in downtown skyscrapers.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abernathy grew up taking in this juxtaposition while walking up the hill from her family home in Bayview; her mom later lived in housing atop the slope.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“You can see everything from up here,” Abernathy said. “You can see the Bay Bridge, and when it’s the Fourth of July you can stand up here and see the fireworks.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://huntersview.info/\">Hunters View\u003c/a> was originally built as temporary housing for shipyard workers. Residents there have long had to advocate for themselves at City Hall, most recently as the promise of thousands of new homes in the city’s southeast corner threatens to push them out. And in the decadeslong cleanup of the contaminated shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abernathy hopes whoever wins the District 10 supervisor race in November will be the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">neighborhood’s\u003c/a> voice. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001940\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260901-D10Climate-04-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidates (from left) Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter, Theo Ellington, and J.R. Eppler participate in a debate at the Potrero Hill Neighborhood House in San Francisco on Sept. 1, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We need to focus on a supervisor that’s going to stand up for us, because we’re almost one foot in the ground and one foot on the curb,” Abernathy said. “We need the community to have a say-so in [the cleanup]. Build around the community and stop just building around City Hall.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The race to replace Supervisor Shamann Walton comes at a pivotal moment for District 10, a large area on the city’s southeastern edge, as the environmental cleanup of the shipyard continues alongside plans to transform the site into housing, parks and business space. Walton’s replacement will inherit the task of advocating for the neighborhoods most affected by contamination, while also shaping what may become the city’s largest redevelopment projects.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/voterguide/sanfrancisco/supervisor-10th-district\">Nine candidates\u003c/a> are vying to represent the sprawling district from Potrero Hill through Bayview to Vistacion Valley. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12098461/crypto-ceo-chris-larsen-donates-500000-to-support-political-moderate-in-supervisors-race\">race has caught the attention of the city’s biggest political funders\u003c/a>, like crypto billionaire Chris Larsen, who donated an eye-popping $500,000 to moderate Democrat Theo Ellington’s campaign. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The next supervisor should think about our health, and think about all the people that have been lost to cancer,” Abernathy said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the Cold War, the 866-acre shipyard’s soil and groundwater were contaminated with radioactive chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum fuels from ships brought there after atomic bomb tests. In 1989, the base was declared one of the nation’s most contaminated sites.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the cleanup concludes — potentially in the middle of the next decade — the city plans to allow developers to reinvent the shipyard. When finished, the 693-acre \u003ca href=\"https://sfocii.org/projects/hunters-point-shipyard-candlestick-point-2/overview\">Candlestick Point-Hunters Point Shipyard project\u003c/a> could include more than 10,000 housing units, two new waterfront neighborhoods and more than 340 acres of parks and open space.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past city-led health surveys found that cancer “is \u003ca href=\"https://www.sfenvironment.org/sites/default/files/fliers/files/sfe_ej_sfhh_community_health_status_assessment.pdf\">a major cause of years of life lost\u003c/a> in Bayview Hunters Point,” but the city did not look into whether contamination at the shipyard contributed to these health problems\u003cstrong>.\u003c/strong> Residents are documenting their health conditions, and a local doctor has \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979614/for-these-black-bayview-hunters-point-residents-reparations-include-safeguarding-against-rising-toxic-contamination\">tested people to catalog who has been exposed\u003c/a> to dangerous chemicals. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rachel Brahinsky, a University of San Francisco professor in urban studies and politics, said the next supervisor will need to actively “shine a light” on how the Superfund site is a “tremendous liability” that should be viewed as a “San Francisco problem.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They won’t “be treated as a central protagonist in the future of the city,” Brahinsky said. “They have to insist on it and make themselves and their neighborhood be seen in that way. History shows that that person will be sidelined if they don’t step up.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">‘This is a city-wide issue’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Standing on the worn granite steps of City Hall in June, environmental advocates called on city leaders to \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/12088662/toxic-land-protest-targets-sf-housing-plans-at-contaminated-hunters-point-naval-shipyard\">push for a full cleanup\u003c/a> at the Hunters Point Naval Shipyard.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rally followed the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1999631/navy-apologizes-for-11-month-delay-in-reporting-radioactive-material-at-hunters-point\">U.S. Navy’\u003c/a>s disclosure this spring that it found a cabinet filled with several hundred radiological items at the shipyard, the latest discovery at the Superfund site.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two candidates for supervisor took to the microphone: Ellington and Dion-Jay “D.J.” Brookter. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001943\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter crushes grapes at Gratta Wines during Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ellington grew up in Bayview and leads the Ruth Williams Opera House, a performing arts and cultural center located there. He said the fight is personal because he lives with his family within the shipyards’ footprint. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If you want to protect the people, then you must protect the land,” Ellington said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter is a community advocate and former local nonprofit leader who moved to the neighborhood 16 years ago. He said the city needs to invest in the existing neighborhoods around Bayview, not just focus on building new housing. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We are asking for what every family in San Francisco has the right to: clean land, honest science, a transparent government, and a future where our health is not sacrificed for someone else’s timeline,” Brookter said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three candidates have \u003ca href=\"https://campaign.sfethics.org/elections/2026-11-03/contests/bos10.html\">raised the most money\u003c/a>, so far — Ellington, Brookter, and J.R. Eppler — and all told KQED the shipyard would be a main focus. However, none explicitly listed it among their top three priorities.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2001939\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001939\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-11-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate J.R. Eppler talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" data-id=\"2001936\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001936\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-15-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Theo Ellington speaks with Sandra O’Neil at Punkin’s 1 Stop Beauty Bar while campaigning in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 21, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ellington ranked housing, economic development and transportation as the most important issues. But decades of stalled and \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1993505/cleanup-of-san-francisco-superfund-site-has-been-badly-mishandled-lawsuit-alleges\">scandal-plagued cleanup efforts\u003c/a>, he said, have taught residents that “nobody takes anyone’s word” about how the Navy cleans up the site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As supervisor, Ellington would push for independent testing before land is transferred to developers, greater transparency and community involvement.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We have to use every rule in the book to push the Navy to do their part, and make sure this development is safe,” Ellington said, adding that he would fight for health screenings, because “exposure records kept today are the evidence families will need tomorrow.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter’s top three priorities include: housing stability, economic opportunity and effective government. On the shipyard, he said the “burden is on the government to prove” the land is safe.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“This is a city-wide issue,” Brookter said. “I want to bring my colleagues here to say, look, this is what San Franciscans are facing.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brookter said he would fight for an independent review of the cleanup and ensure the community has “meaningful decision-making” in what happens next.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eppler describes his top three priorities as “building complete, vibrant, and connected neighborhoods.” On the shipyard, he told KQED the community needs more transparency from the Navy and regulatory agencies overseeing the cleanup. \u003cbr>\u003cbr>Navy officials have \u003ca href=\"https://www.navfac.navy.mil/Home/News-Detail/Article/4228126/navy-begins-final-soil-cleanup-at-former-hunters-point-naval-shipyard-warehouse/\">said\u003c/a> they are dedicated to ensuring the site is safe, environmentally sound, and benefits the surrounding community as it moves toward redevelopment. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Residents should not be expected to take the Navy, its contractors, or City Hall at their word,” Eppler said. “I would push for every parcel to be cleaned to a residential standard and independently verified before it is transferred, opened to the public, or developed.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eppler said the cleanup should not be rushed. Still, other areas could be redeveloped in the meantime because “District 10 should not have to choose between protecting public health and creating economic opportunity.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The city needs to rediscover the southeast,” Eppler said. “We’ve built the arsenal of democracy at the shipyard. It’s time for us to be on the map of San Francisco.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The district is ‘not forgotten’\u003c/h2>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gail Hampton lives in senior housing on the hill overlooking the shipyard. She moved to the district more than half a century ago.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“The next supervisor needs to pay more attention to the shipyard, period,” Hampton said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonia Randell, a Bayview environmental advocate and resident, said the next supervisor must understand that the “environment has to be protected” if the neighborhood is going to thrive — especially as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11979473/us-navy-acknowledges-toxic-groundwater-rising-in-bayview-hunters-point\">future floodwaters could expose the community\u003c/a> to further harm from the toxic site. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001945\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260821-D10Climate-03-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Theo Ellington campaigns in the Bayview in San Francisco on Aug. 21, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“If someone who’s in that office doesn’t understand that, doesn’t attend the meetings or listen to the experts, then we’re gonna be cooked,” Randell said. “It’s a beautiful place, but it has underlying secrets that are deadly.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arieann Harrison, executive director of the Marie Harrison Community Foundation, said she will miss Walton’s leadership.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“He has shown the community that he’s willing to step up and be a part of the actions that we are taking,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harrison has helped spearhead a campaign for community oversight, independent testing, cleanup to the highest standards, reparations for impacted residents and long-term monitoring. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">She worries development could shift demographics and reduce representation for existing residents. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001938\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/09/260823-D10Climate-09-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">District 10 supervisor candidate Dion-Jay “DJ” Brookter talks with attendees at Sunday Streets in the Bayview neighborhood in San Francisco on Aug. 23, 2026. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“We will probably not have any representation moving forward after this election, that is, us — Black or people of color — because of the influx of money,” Harrison said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brahinsky, who is writing a book about Bayview environmental leaders, said: “The future is not written yet.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“I think there is still an opportunity because people like [Harrison] are pushing on the outcomes at the shipyard,” Brahinsky said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brahinsky hopes the district elects someone “who will represent the underdogs” and is “willing to keep pressure on continuously.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">“Sometimes that means someone who’s not worried about what’s next for them politically,” Brahinsky said. “The district is, in some ways, the last industrial heart of San Francisco. In that sense, it’s not forgotten at all and is central to the functioning of the city.”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "commercial-gas-kitchens-expose-workers-to-a-soup-of-pollution-high-heat",
"title": "Commercial Gas Kitchens Expose Workers to a ‘Soup of Pollution,’ High Heat",
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"headTitle": "Commercial Gas Kitchens Expose Workers to a ‘Soup of Pollution,’ High Heat | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>Commercial kitchens outfitted with gas-fired appliances can reach temperatures as hot as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/tag/california\">California’s\u003c/a> Death Valley in the summer and expose workers to harmful gases in excess of health-based guidelines, according to a first-of-its-kind \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9d96\">study\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Commercial kitchens where workers cook with all-electric appliances, on the other hand, were much cooler and did not exceed any health guidelines for pollution exposure, the study found.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The study authors said the research is the first U.S. analysis to compare air quality and heat between gas-burning commercial kitchens and all-electric ones under real-world working conditions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“ In the majority of gas-fired kitchens we measured, the pollution levels exceeded health benchmarks for hours on end,” said Yannai Kashtan, air quality scientist at the nonprofit research institute PSE Healthy Energy, and the study’s first author.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1358\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001890\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-768x521.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-1536x1043.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Aeris analyzers, which measure methane, ethane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and monoxide, in the air rest at the Jackson Lab at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>The research was published Tuesday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326\">\u003cem>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/em>\u003c/a> by scientists at Stanford University, New York University and PSE Healthy Energy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan’s team measured nitrogen dioxide, benzene, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and air temperature in 21 gas kitchens, three propane kitchens and three all-electric kitchens across California, Pennsylvania and New York. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sampled kitchens included both fine-dining and casual restaurants, catering facilities and institutions serving senior living communities and schools. The researchers measured kitchen air quality with specialized sensors, and tracked gas concentrations and temperature when the spaces were both in service and not. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In about 70% of the gas-fired restaurants sampled, nitrogen dioxide concentrations during work hours exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization one-hour exposure guidelines, the study found. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Exposure to high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide can contribute to the development of asthma and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, according to the EPA. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The study also found concentrations of carbon monoxide and benzene, a known carcinogen, in concentrations exceeding California’s 1-hour exposure guideline in three and five gas-fired kitchens, respectively. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The three electric kitchens had levels of pollution “pretty close to background levels,” according to Kashtan. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Not zero, but not much higher than you would be breathing just walking around,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said he was surprised to find that roughly two-thirds of gas-powered kitchens measured had higher levels of pollution when they weren’t in service, something he attributed to ventilation fans not operating while the pilot lights of gas ranges continued to sputter.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That means cleaning crews or early arriving staff might be exposed to some of the highest levels of pollution, before the kitchen begins service and cooks turn on ventilation fans.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“One concrete, actionable thing that anybody can do is turn on the ventilation the minute you walk into the kitchen in the morning to flush out everything that’s built up overnight, and that’s going to keep you from breathing in this soup of pollution,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Restaurants with pilot lights could switch to more modern equipment that uses electronic spark ignition to prevent overnight pollution, said Theresa Pistochini, associate director of the Western Cooling Efficiency Center, although she acknowledged that could be expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001893\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, explains how her team uses the Aeris analyzers to measure greenhouse gases in the air, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>“While there is \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002089/heres-what-all-electric-bay-area-restaurants-have-learned-from-ditching-gas\">debate in the restaurant industry\u003c/a> about whether all-electric cooking can meet the needs of chefs with specific cooking practices, it is safe to say that there is no tangible benefit to pilot lights,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Industry trade groups like the California Restaurant Association have opposed local governments’ attempts to establish electrification mandates. The group successfully challenged the city of Berkeley’s 2019 ban on natural gas hookups in new construction. The CRA has argued that restaurants would not be able to produce the same quality food with electric appliances as with gas ones.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1995336/heres-what-happened-when-scientists-tested-the-air-with-my-gas-stove-on\">previous studies\u003c/a> have established a link between cooking with gas appliances and increased indoor air pollution in residential settings, commercial kitchens have received much less attention, according to Rob Jackson, professor of earth system science at Stanford University, and a study co-author.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Our study shows that burning gas in a restaurant kitchen is as suspect as burning it in our homes,” Jackson said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘Death Valley in the summer’ \u003cbr>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>Kitchens with gas-fired appliances were also substantially hotter than their electric counterparts. The study found that the temperature in a majority of gas kitchens, 68%, exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with four exceeding 122 degrees, according to measurements taken just outside a main vent hood. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That’s Death Valley in the summer,” Kashtan said. “It’s a very extreme environment.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Two of the electric restaurants had the lowest peak temperatures recorded, although the study acknowledged this had “low statistical power” based on the small sample size. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The findings of the study, that using electric appliances instead of gas ones reduces exposure to heat and harmful vapors, “generally align with expectations,” according to Pistochini.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001892\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, holds a thermocouple logger which measures the temperature on ovens, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Pistochini noted there was a high variability in gas exposure, something she attributed to differences in cooking practices and the effectiveness of kitchen ventilation systems, “which reinforces the importance of ventilation in commercial kitchens,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The study falls short of producing a “nationwide population-level exposure study,” Kashtan said, which would quantify the average heat and gas a commercial kitchen worker is exposed to across the country. He said that would require a much larger sample. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said areas of further study could focus on heat and gas exposure in dining rooms and places where waitstaff are, or in businesses or residences close to restaurants, such as in mixed-use buildings.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The restaurant and foodservice industry provides 15.7 million jobs nationwide, according to the National Restaurant Association.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We would never expect a software engineer or a teacher to put up with such a harsh workplace, but this is normal for the millions of people who go to work each day in commercial kitchens to make our meals,” said David Lehrer, communications director for the Center for Built Environment at the University of California, Berkeley. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said this kind of work shouldn’t require “a bunch of scientists with fancy instruments.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It would be interesting to think about ways to require air quality monitoring in commercial kitchens,” he said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001890\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-768x521.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-1536x1043.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Aeris analyzers, which measure methane, ethane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and monoxide, in the air rest at the Jackson Lab at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001890\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Aeris analyzers, which measure methane, ethane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and monoxide, in the air rest at the Jackson Lab at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The research was published Tuesday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326\">\u003cem>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/em>\u003c/a> by scientists at Stanford University, New York University and PSE Healthy Energy. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The research was published Tuesday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326\">\u003cem>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/em>\u003c/a> by scientists at Stanford University, New York University and PSE Healthy Energy. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kashtan’s team measured nitrogen dioxide, benzene, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and air temperature in 21 gas kitchens, three propane kitchens and three all-electric kitchens across California, Pennsylvania and New York. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kashtan’s team measured nitrogen dioxide, benzene, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and air temperature in 21 gas kitchens, three propane kitchens and three all-electric kitchens across California, Pennsylvania and New York. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Sampled kitchens included both fine-dining and casual restaurants, catering facilities and institutions serving senior living communities and schools. The researchers measured kitchen air quality with specialized sensors, and tracked gas concentrations and temperature when the spaces were both in service and not. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Sampled kitchens included both fine-dining and casual restaurants, catering facilities and institutions serving senior living communities and schools. The researchers measured kitchen air quality with specialized sensors, and tracked gas concentrations and temperature when the spaces were both in service and not. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>In about 70% of the gas-fired restaurants sampled, nitrogen dioxide concentrations during work hours exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization one-hour exposure guidelines, the study found. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>In about 70% of the gas-fired restaurants sampled, nitrogen dioxide concentrations during work hours exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization one-hour exposure guidelines, the study found. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Exposure to high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide can contribute to the development of asthma and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, according to the EPA. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The study also found concentrations of carbon monoxide and benzene, a known carcinogen, in concentrations exceeding California’s 1-hour exposure guideline in three and five gas-fired kitchens, respectively. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The study also found concentrations of carbon monoxide and benzene, a known carcinogen, in concentrations exceeding California’s 1-hour exposure guideline in three and five gas-fired kitchens, respectively. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The three electric kitchens had levels of pollution “pretty close to background levels,” according to Kashtan. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Not zero, but not much higher than you would be breathing just walking around,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kashtan said he was surprised to find that roughly two-thirds of gas-powered kitchens measured had higher levels of pollution when they weren’t in service, something he attributed to ventilation fans not operating while the pilot lights of gas ranges continued to sputter.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kashtan said he was surprised to find that roughly two-thirds of gas-powered kitchens measured had higher levels of pollution when they weren’t in service, something he attributed to ventilation fans not operating while the pilot lights of gas ranges continued to sputter.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>That means cleaning crews or early arriving staff might be exposed to some of the highest levels of pollution, before the kitchen begins service and cooks turn on ventilation fans.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>That means cleaning crews or early arriving staff might be exposed to some of the highest levels of pollution, before the kitchen begins service and cooks turn on ventilation fans.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“One concrete, actionable thing that anybody can do is turn on the ventilation the minute you walk into the kitchen in the morning to flush out everything that’s built up overnight, and that’s going to keep you from breathing in this soup of pollution,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“One concrete, actionable thing that anybody can do is turn on the ventilation the minute you walk into the kitchen in the morning to flush out everything that’s built up overnight, and that’s going to keep you from breathing in this soup of pollution,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Restaurants with pilot lights could switch to more modern equipment that uses electronic spark ignition to prevent overnight pollution, said Theresa Pistochini, associate director of the Western Cooling Efficiency Center, although she acknowledged that could be expensive.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Restaurants with pilot lights could switch to more modern equipment that uses electronic spark ignition to prevent overnight pollution, said Theresa Pistochini, associate director of the Western Cooling Efficiency Center, although she acknowledged that could be expensive.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001893\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, explains how her team uses the Aeris analyzers to measure greenhouse gases in the air, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001893\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, explains how her team uses the Aeris analyzers to measure greenhouse gases in the air, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“While there is \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002089/heres-what-all-electric-bay-area-restaurants-have-learned-from-ditching-gas\">debate in the restaurant industry\u003c/a> about whether all-electric cooking can meet the needs of chefs with specific cooking practices, it is safe to say that there is no tangible benefit to pilot lights,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Industry trade groups like the California Restaurant Association have opposed local governments’ attempts to establish electrification mandates. The group successfully challenged the city of Berkeley’s 2019 ban on natural gas hookups in new construction. The CRA has argued that restaurants would not be able to produce the same quality food with electric appliances as with gas ones.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Industry trade groups like the California Restaurant Association have opposed local governments’ attempts to establish electrification mandates. The group successfully challenged the city of Berkeley’s 2019 ban on natural gas hookups in new construction. The CRA has argued that restaurants would not be able to produce the same quality food with electric appliances as with gas ones.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1995336/heres-what-happened-when-scientists-tested-the-air-with-my-gas-stove-on\">previous studies\u003c/a> have established a link between cooking with gas appliances and increased indoor air pollution in residential settings, commercial kitchens have received much less attention, according to Rob Jackson, professor of earth system science at Stanford University, and a study co-author.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1995336/heres-what-happened-when-scientists-tested-the-air-with-my-gas-stove-on\">previous studies\u003c/a> have established a link between cooking with gas appliances and increased indoor air pollution in residential settings, commercial kitchens have received much less attention, according to Rob Jackson, professor of earth system science at Stanford University, and a study co-author.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Our study shows that burning gas in a restaurant kitchen is as suspect as burning it in our homes,” Jackson said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Our study shows that burning gas in a restaurant kitchen is as suspect as burning it in our homes,” Jackson said. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘Death Valley in the summer’ \u003cbr>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>Kitchens with gas-fired appliances were also substantially hotter than their electric counterparts. The study found that the temperature in a majority of gas kitchens, 68%, exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with four exceeding 122 degrees, according to measurements taken just outside a main vent hood. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘Death Valley in the summer’ \u003cbr>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>Kitchens with gas-fired appliances were also substantially hotter than their electric counterparts. The study found that the temperature in a majority of gas kitchens, 68%, exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with four exceeding 122 degrees, according to measurements taken just outside a main vent hood. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“That’s Death Valley in the summer,” Kashtan said. “It’s a very extreme environment.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Two of the electric restaurants had the lowest peak temperatures recorded, although the study acknowledged this had “low statistical power” based on the small sample size. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Two of the electric restaurants had the lowest peak temperatures recorded, although the study acknowledged this had “low statistical power” based on the small sample size. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The findings of the study, that using electric appliances instead of gas ones reduces exposure to heat and harmful vapors, “generally align with expectations,” according to Pistochini.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001892\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, holds a thermocouple logger which measures the temperature on ovens, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Pistochini noted there was a high variability in gas exposure, something she attributed to differences in cooking practices and the effectiveness of kitchen ventilation systems, “which reinforces the importance of ventilation in commercial kitchens,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Pistochini noted there was a high variability in gas exposure, something she attributed to differences in cooking practices and the effectiveness of kitchen ventilation systems, “which reinforces the importance of ventilation in commercial kitchens,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The study falls short of producing a “nationwide population-level exposure study,” Kashtan said, which would quantify the average heat and gas a commercial kitchen worker is exposed to across the country. He said that would require a much larger sample. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kashtan said areas of further study could focus on heat and gas exposure in dining rooms and places where waitstaff are, or in businesses or residences close to restaurants, such as in mixed-use buildings.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Kashtan said areas of further study could focus on heat and gas exposure in dining rooms and places where waitstaff are, or in businesses or residences close to restaurants, such as in mixed-use buildings.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The restaurant and foodservice industry provides 15.7 million jobs nationwide, according to the National Restaurant Association.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The restaurant and foodservice industry provides 15.7 million jobs nationwide, according to the National Restaurant Association.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We would never expect a software engineer or a teacher to put up with such a harsh workplace, but this is normal for the millions of people who go to work each day in commercial kitchens to make our meals,” said David Lehrer, communications director for the Center for Built Environment at the University of California, Berkeley. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Kashtan said this kind of work shouldn’t require “a bunch of scientists with fancy instruments.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“It would be interesting to think about ways to require air quality monitoring in commercial kitchens,” he said. \u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "A new study from Bay Area researchers found that gas-powered kitchens can expose workers to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution and heat, while all-electric kitchens are cooler and cleaner. ",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>Commercial kitchens outfitted with gas-fired appliances can reach temperatures as hot as \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/tag/california\">California’s\u003c/a> Death Valley in the summer and expose workers to harmful gases in excess of health-based guidelines, according to a first-of-its-kind \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9d96\">study\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Commercial kitchens where workers cook with all-electric appliances, on the other hand, were much cooler and did not exceed any health guidelines for pollution exposure, the study found.\u003cbr>\u003cbr>The study authors said the research is the first U.S. analysis to compare air quality and heat between gas-burning commercial kitchens and all-electric ones under real-world working conditions. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“ In the majority of gas-fired kitchens we measured, the pollution levels exceeded health benchmarks for hours on end,” said Yannai Kashtan, air quality scientist at the nonprofit research institute PSE Healthy Energy, and the study’s first author.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1358\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001890\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-768x521.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-2-KQED-1536x1043.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Aeris analyzers, which measure methane, ethane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and monoxide, in the air rest at the Jackson Lab at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>The research was published Tuesday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326\">\u003cem>Environmental Research Letters\u003c/em>\u003c/a> by scientists at Stanford University, New York University and PSE Healthy Energy. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan’s team measured nitrogen dioxide, benzene, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and air temperature in 21 gas kitchens, three propane kitchens and three all-electric kitchens across California, Pennsylvania and New York. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Sampled kitchens included both fine-dining and casual restaurants, catering facilities and institutions serving senior living communities and schools. The researchers measured kitchen air quality with specialized sensors, and tracked gas concentrations and temperature when the spaces were both in service and not. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>In about 70% of the gas-fired restaurants sampled, nitrogen dioxide concentrations during work hours exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization one-hour exposure guidelines, the study found. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Exposure to high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide can contribute to the development of asthma and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, according to the EPA. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The study also found concentrations of carbon monoxide and benzene, a known carcinogen, in concentrations exceeding California’s 1-hour exposure guideline in three and five gas-fired kitchens, respectively. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The three electric kitchens had levels of pollution “pretty close to background levels,” according to Kashtan. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Not zero, but not much higher than you would be breathing just walking around,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said he was surprised to find that roughly two-thirds of gas-powered kitchens measured had higher levels of pollution when they weren’t in service, something he attributed to ventilation fans not operating while the pilot lights of gas ranges continued to sputter.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>That means cleaning crews or early arriving staff might be exposed to some of the highest levels of pollution, before the kitchen begins service and cooks turn on ventilation fans.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“One concrete, actionable thing that anybody can do is turn on the ventilation the minute you walk into the kitchen in the morning to flush out everything that’s built up overnight, and that’s going to keep you from breathing in this soup of pollution,” Kashtan said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Restaurants with pilot lights could switch to more modern equipment that uses electronic spark ignition to prevent overnight pollution, said Theresa Pistochini, associate director of the Western Cooling Efficiency Center, although she acknowledged that could be expensive.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001893\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-6-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, explains how her team uses the Aeris analyzers to measure greenhouse gases in the air, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>“While there is \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/2002089/heres-what-all-electric-bay-area-restaurants-have-learned-from-ditching-gas\">debate in the restaurant industry\u003c/a> about whether all-electric cooking can meet the needs of chefs with specific cooking practices, it is safe to say that there is no tangible benefit to pilot lights,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Industry trade groups like the California Restaurant Association have opposed local governments’ attempts to establish electrification mandates. The group successfully challenged the city of Berkeley’s 2019 ban on natural gas hookups in new construction. The CRA has argued that restaurants would not be able to produce the same quality food with electric appliances as with gas ones.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>While \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1995336/heres-what-happened-when-scientists-tested-the-air-with-my-gas-stove-on\">previous studies\u003c/a> have established a link between cooking with gas appliances and increased indoor air pollution in residential settings, commercial kitchens have received much less attention, according to Rob Jackson, professor of earth system science at Stanford University, and a study co-author.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Our study shows that burning gas in a restaurant kitchen is as suspect as burning it in our homes,” Jackson said. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>‘Death Valley in the summer’ \u003cbr>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>Kitchens with gas-fired appliances were also substantially hotter than their electric counterparts. The study found that the temperature in a majority of gas kitchens, 68%, exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with four exceeding 122 degrees, according to measurements taken just outside a main vent hood. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“That’s Death Valley in the summer,” Kashtan said. “It’s a very extreme environment.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Two of the electric restaurants had the lowest peak temperatures recorded, although the study acknowledged this had “low statistical power” based on the small sample size. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The findings of the study, that using electric appliances instead of gas ones reduces exposure to heat and harmful vapors, “generally align with expectations,” according to Pistochini.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\u003cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2001892\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/08/20260827_ElectricKitchens_GC-4-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Samea Derrick, staff researcher at the Jackson Lab, holds a thermocouple logger which measures the temperature on ovens, at Stanford University on Aug. 27, 2026. (Gina Castro for KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003c/div>\n\n\n\u003cp>Pistochini noted there was a high variability in gas exposure, something she attributed to differences in cooking practices and the effectiveness of kitchen ventilation systems, “which reinforces the importance of ventilation in commercial kitchens,” Pistochini said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The study falls short of producing a “nationwide population-level exposure study,” Kashtan said, which would quantify the average heat and gas a commercial kitchen worker is exposed to across the country. He said that would require a much larger sample. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said areas of further study could focus on heat and gas exposure in dining rooms and places where waitstaff are, or in businesses or residences close to restaurants, such as in mixed-use buildings.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The restaurant and foodservice industry provides 15.7 million jobs nationwide, according to the National Restaurant Association.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We would never expect a software engineer or a teacher to put up with such a harsh workplace, but this is normal for the millions of people who go to work each day in commercial kitchens to make our meals,” said David Lehrer, communications director for the Center for Built Environment at the University of California, Berkeley. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Kashtan said this kind of work shouldn’t require “a bunch of scientists with fancy instruments.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“It would be interesting to think about ways to require air quality monitoring in commercial kitchens,” he said. \u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"slug": "east-bay-grief-counselors-strike-to-protest-layoffs-and-protect-the-soul-of-hospice",
"title": "East Bay Grief Counselors Strike to Protest Layoffs and ‘Protect the Soul of Hospice’",
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"headTitle": "East Bay Grief Counselors Strike to Protest Layoffs and ‘Protect the Soul of Hospice’ | KQED",
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"content": "\n\u003cp>At 77, Judy Johnson has faced one of the unspoken responsibilities of being the youngest child in the family: shepherding her parents and her three older siblings \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/stateofhealth/364223/beloved-san-francisco-zen-hospice-project-confronts-its-own-end\">through death\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With her last sister now in hospice care, and no one else left to lean on, Johnson found a lifeline in an emotional support group provided through her sister’s hospice provider, Hospice East Bay. But as the nonprofit’s parent organization prepares to lay off more than 20 staff, including social workers, chaplains and nurses, the support group will be disbanded, and Johnson will have to bear her sister’s death without it.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>A key element supporting my emotional well-being will be lost,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The nonprofit Hospice East Bay turned over management of its operations to a Florida-based parent company, Chapters Health System, last year, with the stated goal of expanding services. Instead, music therapy and a children’s grief program have been discontinued, and staff members are facing their second round of layoffs. Their union is staging a seven-day strike starting Monday to protest cuts to their own health benefits and demand a fair contract.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re going on strike to protect the soul of hospice,” said Judy Fleischman, a spiritual care counselor at Hospice East Bay. \u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>The jobs are being cut, and the caseloads will increase for those who remain. Let’s be clear, that is destroying our ability to care compassionately.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002205\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hospice East Bay workers and supporters picket outside the organization’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike over layoffs, health benefits and contract negotiations. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Hospice began as a volunteer-led, grassroots movement in the 1970s, but in recent decades, it has ballooned into a massive industry. In California, \u003ca href=\"https://kffhealthnews.org/aging/hospice-agencies-california-survival-gains-hospital-cms-fraud/\">94% of hospice providers\u003c/a> are now for-profit. Corporate consolidation has been widespread, leading to exploitation and even \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/health/2026/04/hospice-fraud-california-license-medicare/\">fraud\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>As a small, independent nonprofit, Hospice East Bay struggled to compete in this environment. Staff say the financial strain of flat government reimbursement rates, coupled with declining patient numbers and money mismanagement, pushed previous executives to affiliate with \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/\">Chapters Health\u003c/a> last year. By centralizing business operations like human resources, IT, purchasing, and billing, local leaders believed caregivers could focus more on improving clinical services to patients and their families.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Together, we will be able to embrace the challenges of the changing healthcare landscape and create an environment where we have the opportunity to expand our programs and services, strengthening our role as a community leader in quality care,” said Chris Falley, executive director of Hospice East Bay, at the time the partnership agreement was \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/press-releases/hospice-east-bay-finalizes-agreement-to-join-chapters-health-system/\">finalized in October 2025\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Andrew Molosky, president and CEO of Chapters Health, who earned \u003ca href=\"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/592264957\">$2.2 million\u003c/a> in total compensation in 2024, visited Hospice East Bay headquarters in Pleasant Hill at the time and, according to staff, he told them he foresaw no cuts to clinical staff and no layoffs of senior leaders for at least a year. Six weeks later, two directors left, allegedly forced into retirement. And now staff are fighting back against the second round of clinical layoffs in a year, eliminating 30 positions total.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Chapters Health did not comment on the layoff decision, but issued a statement from regional director, Tonya Lyons, who said they were “disappointed” by the union’s plan to strike. Care for current hospice patients will continue through the seven-day walkout, she said, with a contingency team of clinicians, administrators, and on-call physicians.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lyons said management is committed to reaching a contract with the union that “will lay the groundwork for long-term sustainability and ensure the ability to grow into the future.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Union members countered that the current job cuts will leave remaining staff stretched long after the strike is over. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Social workers will have to care for 40 patients instead of 30. Chaplains will have 80 patients instead of 50. Two bereavement counselors will be left to help 1,200 patients and family members facing the loss of their loved ones.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The remaining chaplains will have to figure out who will not get spiritual care,” said Claire Eustace, a chaplain who will be laid off this month. “It’s one thing when people say they don’t want spiritual care support, but it’s quite a different thing when we decide that for them, because we just don’t have the time to visit them.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002210\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Claire Eustace leads hospice workers and supporters in a chant outside Hospice East Bay’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The family support group that Judy Johnson attends is run by a social worker who is being laid off. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With their increased caseloads, the remaining social workers are unlikely to have time to continue it. Johnson wonders what might happen to the care her sister, Maxine, receives. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She’s 88, suffering from Parkinson’s dementia, and bedbound from a recent fall. Johnson said the nurses and aides who visit are all highly professional, caring people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I look at how the home health aide bathes my sister, the gentleness with which she touches her body. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She doesn’t just grab a limb and begin washing it. She said, ‘Miss Maxine, I’m gonna do your arm now, okay?’” Johnson said. If there are more and more patients to visit in a day, she worries, “my sister’s bath may not be so gentle and life-affirming.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California attorney general’s office reviewed the affiliation agreement between Hospice East Bay and Chapters Health last summer, and approved it on several conditions, including the creation of a quality advisory committee and the maintenance of programs historically funded by donations rather than government payments, like music therapy and bereavement services for families.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>According to staff, such therapy programs have not been maintained, and with the latest round of cuts to the bereavement team, peer support groups and one-on-one counseling for loved ones left behind will be scaled back. It’s unclear what kind of recourse the attorney general’s office may have. It did not respond to requests for comment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Social worker Julie Aronowitz, who is also being laid off, compared the staff cuts to a poem about violinist Yitzhak Perlman, who once performed with only three strings on his instrument after one of them broke. He adapted and played with “power and intensity” anyway.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This poem talks about how we make music with what remains,” Aronowitz said. “But how do you make music with just one string left?”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The nonprofit Hospice East Bay turned over management of its operations to a Florida-based parent company, Chapters Health System, last year, with the stated goal of expanding services. Instead, music therapy and a children’s grief program have been discontinued, and staff members are facing their second round of layoffs. Their union is staging a seven-day strike starting Monday to protest cuts to their own health benefits and demand a fair contract.\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“We’re going on strike to protect the soul of hospice,” said Judy Fleischman, a spiritual care counselor at Hospice East Bay. \u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>The jobs are being cut, and the caseloads will increase for those who remain. Let’s be clear, that is destroying our ability to care compassionately.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002205\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hospice East Bay workers and supporters picket outside the organization’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike over layoffs, health benefits and contract negotiations.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Hospice began as a volunteer-led, grassroots movement in the 1970s, but in recent decades, it has ballooned into a massive industry. In California, \u003ca href=\"https://kffhealthnews.org/aging/hospice-agencies-california-survival-gains-hospital-cms-fraud/\">94% of hospice providers\u003c/a> are now for-profit. Corporate consolidation has been widespread, leading to exploitation and even \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/health/2026/04/hospice-fraud-california-license-medicare/\">fraud\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Hospice began as a volunteer-led, grassroots movement in the 1970s, but in recent decades, it has ballooned into a massive industry. In California, \u003ca href=\"https://kffhealthnews.org/aging/hospice-agencies-california-survival-gains-hospital-cms-fraud/\">94% of hospice providers\u003c/a> are now for-profit. Corporate consolidation has been widespread, leading to exploitation and even \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/health/2026/04/hospice-fraud-california-license-medicare/\">fraud\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>As a small, independent nonprofit, Hospice East Bay struggled to compete in this environment. Staff say the financial strain of flat government reimbursement rates, coupled with declining patient numbers and money mismanagement, pushed previous executives to affiliate with \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/\">Chapters Health\u003c/a> last year. By centralizing business operations like human resources, IT, purchasing, and billing, local leaders believed caregivers could focus more on improving clinical services to patients and their families.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>As a small, independent nonprofit, Hospice East Bay struggled to compete in this environment. Staff say the financial strain of flat government reimbursement rates, coupled with declining patient numbers and money mismanagement, pushed previous executives to affiliate with \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/\">Chapters Health\u003c/a> last year. By centralizing business operations like human resources, IT, purchasing, and billing, local leaders believed caregivers could focus more on improving clinical services to patients and their families.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“Together, we will be able to embrace the challenges of the changing healthcare landscape and create an environment where we have the opportunity to expand our programs and services, strengthening our role as a community leader in quality care,” said Chris Falley, executive director of Hospice East Bay, at the time the partnership agreement was \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/press-releases/hospice-east-bay-finalizes-agreement-to-join-chapters-health-system/\">finalized in October 2025\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“Together, we will be able to embrace the challenges of the changing healthcare landscape and create an environment where we have the opportunity to expand our programs and services, strengthening our role as a community leader in quality care,” said Chris Falley, executive director of Hospice East Bay, at the time the partnership agreement was \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/press-releases/hospice-east-bay-finalizes-agreement-to-join-chapters-health-system/\">finalized in October 2025\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Andrew Molosky, president and CEO of Chapters Health, who earned \u003ca href=\"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/592264957\">$2.2 million\u003c/a> in total compensation in 2024, visited Hospice East Bay headquarters in Pleasant Hill at the time and, according to staff, he told them he foresaw no cuts to clinical staff and no layoffs of senior leaders for at least a year. Six weeks later, two directors left, allegedly forced into retirement. And now staff are fighting back against the second round of clinical layoffs in a year, eliminating 30 positions total.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Andrew Molosky, president and CEO of Chapters Health, who earned \u003ca href=\"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/592264957\">$2.2 million\u003c/a> in total compensation in 2024, visited Hospice East Bay headquarters in Pleasant Hill at the time and, according to staff, he told them he foresaw no cuts to clinical staff and no layoffs of senior leaders for at least a year. Six weeks later, two directors left, allegedly forced into retirement. And now staff are fighting back against the second round of clinical layoffs in a year, eliminating 30 positions total.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Chapters Health did not comment on the layoff decision, but issued a statement from regional director, Tonya Lyons, who said they were “disappointed” by the union’s plan to strike. Care for current hospice patients will continue through the seven-day walkout, she said, with a contingency team of clinicians, administrators, and on-call physicians.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Chapters Health did not comment on the layoff decision, but issued a statement from regional director, Tonya Lyons, who said they were “disappointed” by the union’s plan to strike. Care for current hospice patients will continue through the seven-day walkout, she said, with a contingency team of clinicians, administrators, and on-call physicians.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Lyons said management is committed to reaching a contract with the union that “will lay the groundwork for long-term sustainability and ensure the ability to grow into the future.” \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Union members countered that the current job cuts will leave remaining staff stretched long after the strike is over. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Social workers will have to care for 40 patients instead of 30. Chaplains will have 80 patients instead of 50. Two bereavement counselors will be left to help 1,200 patients and family members facing the loss of their loved ones.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Social workers will have to care for 40 patients instead of 30. Chaplains will have 80 patients instead of 50. Two bereavement counselors will be left to help 1,200 patients and family members facing the loss of their loved ones.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“The remaining chaplains will have to figure out who will not get spiritual care,” said Claire Eustace, a chaplain who will be laid off this month. “It’s one thing when people say they don’t want spiritual care support, but it’s quite a different thing when we decide that for them, because we just don’t have the time to visit them.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>“The remaining chaplains will have to figure out who will not get spiritual care,” said Claire Eustace, a chaplain who will be laid off this month. “It’s one thing when people say they don’t want spiritual care support, but it’s quite a different thing when we decide that for them, because we just don’t have the time to visit them.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002210\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 992px) min(100vw, 1536px), (min-width: 768px) min(100vw, 1280px), min(100vw, 1020px)\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Claire Eustace leads hospice workers and supporters in a chant outside Hospice East Bay’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n",
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"\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002210\"/>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Claire Eustace leads hospice workers and supporters in a chant outside Hospice East Bay’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike.\u003ccite class=\"wp-inline-image-credit\"> (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The family support group that Judy Johnson attends is run by a social worker who is being laid off. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>With their increased caseloads, the remaining social workers are unlikely to have time to continue it. Johnson wonders what might happen to the care her sister, Maxine, receives. \u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>With their increased caseloads, the remaining social workers are unlikely to have time to continue it. Johnson wonders what might happen to the care her sister, Maxine, receives. \u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She’s 88, suffering from Parkinson’s dementia, and bedbound from a recent fall. Johnson said the nurses and aides who visit are all highly professional, caring people.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She’s 88, suffering from Parkinson’s dementia, and bedbound from a recent fall. Johnson said the nurses and aides who visit are all highly professional, caring people.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“I look at how the home health aide bathes my sister, the gentleness with which she touches her body. \u003c/p>\n",
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>She doesn’t just grab a limb and begin washing it. She said, ‘Miss Maxine, I’m gonna do your arm now, okay?’” Johnson said. If there are more and more patients to visit in a day, she worries, “my sister’s bath may not be so gentle and life-affirming.”\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>She doesn’t just grab a limb and begin washing it. She said, ‘Miss Maxine, I’m gonna do your arm now, okay?’” Johnson said. If there are more and more patients to visit in a day, she worries, “my sister’s bath may not be so gentle and life-affirming.”\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>The California attorney general’s office reviewed the affiliation agreement between Hospice East Bay and Chapters Health last summer, and approved it on several conditions, including the creation of a quality advisory committee and the maintenance of programs historically funded by donations rather than government payments, like music therapy and bereavement services for families.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>The California attorney general’s office reviewed the affiliation agreement between Hospice East Bay and Chapters Health last summer, and approved it on several conditions, including the creation of a quality advisory committee and the maintenance of programs historically funded by donations rather than government payments, like music therapy and bereavement services for families.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>According to staff, such therapy programs have not been maintained, and with the latest round of cuts to the bereavement team, peer support groups and one-on-one counseling for loved ones left behind will be scaled back. It’s unclear what kind of recourse the attorney general’s office may have. It did not respond to requests for comment.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>According to staff, such therapy programs have not been maintained, and with the latest round of cuts to the bereavement team, peer support groups and one-on-one counseling for loved ones left behind will be scaled back. It’s unclear what kind of recourse the attorney general’s office may have. It did not respond to requests for comment.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>Social worker Julie Aronowitz, who is also being laid off, compared the staff cuts to a poem about violinist Yitzhak Perlman, who once performed with only three strings on his instrument after one of them broke. He adapted and played with “power and intensity” anyway.\u003c/p>\n",
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"\n\u003cp>Social worker Julie Aronowitz, who is also being laid off, compared the staff cuts to a poem about violinist Yitzhak Perlman, who once performed with only three strings on his instrument after one of them broke. He adapted and played with “power and intensity” anyway.\u003c/p>\n"
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"innerHTML": "\n\u003cp>“This poem talks about how we make music with what remains,” Aronowitz said. “But how do you make music with just one string left?”\u003c/p>\n",
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"excerpt": "Staff at Hospice East Bay warn that services and care quality will deteriorate under the continued leadership of Florida-based Chapters Health Systems.",
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"title": "East Bay Grief Counselors Strike to Protest Layoffs and ‘Protect the Soul of Hospice’ | KQED",
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"content": "\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>At 77, Judy Johnson has faced one of the unspoken responsibilities of being the youngest child in the family: shepherding her parents and her three older siblings \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/stateofhealth/364223/beloved-san-francisco-zen-hospice-project-confronts-its-own-end\">through death\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With her last sister now in hospice care, and no one else left to lean on, Johnson found a lifeline in an emotional support group provided through her sister’s hospice provider, Hospice East Bay. But as the nonprofit’s parent organization prepares to lay off more than 20 staff, including social workers, chaplains and nurses, the support group will be disbanded, and Johnson will have to bear her sister’s death without it.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>A key element supporting my emotional well-being will be lost,” Johnson said.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The nonprofit Hospice East Bay turned over management of its operations to a Florida-based parent company, Chapters Health System, last year, with the stated goal of expanding services. Instead, music therapy and a children’s grief program have been discontinued, and staff members are facing their second round of layoffs. Their union is staging a seven-day strike starting Monday to protest cuts to their own health benefits and demand a fair contract.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“We’re going on strike to protect the soul of hospice,” said Judy Fleischman, a spiritual care counselor at Hospice East Bay. \u003cstrong>“\u003c/strong>The jobs are being cut, and the caseloads will increase for those who remain. Let’s be clear, that is destroying our ability to care compassionately.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002205\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED.jpg 2000w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HOSPICESTRIKE-06-BL-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hospice East Bay workers and supporters picket outside the organization’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike over layoffs, health benefits and contract negotiations. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Hospice began as a volunteer-led, grassroots movement in the 1970s, but in recent decades, it has ballooned into a massive industry. In California, \u003ca href=\"https://kffhealthnews.org/aging/hospice-agencies-california-survival-gains-hospital-cms-fraud/\">94% of hospice providers\u003c/a> are now for-profit. Corporate consolidation has been widespread, leading to exploitation and even \u003ca href=\"https://calmatters.org/health/2026/04/hospice-fraud-california-license-medicare/\">fraud\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>As a small, independent nonprofit, Hospice East Bay struggled to compete in this environment. Staff say the financial strain of flat government reimbursement rates, coupled with declining patient numbers and money mismanagement, pushed previous executives to affiliate with \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/\">Chapters Health\u003c/a> last year. By centralizing business operations like human resources, IT, purchasing, and billing, local leaders believed caregivers could focus more on improving clinical services to patients and their families.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“Together, we will be able to embrace the challenges of the changing healthcare landscape and create an environment where we have the opportunity to expand our programs and services, strengthening our role as a community leader in quality care,” said Chris Falley, executive director of Hospice East Bay, at the time the partnership agreement was \u003ca href=\"https://www.chaptershealth.org/press-releases/hospice-east-bay-finalizes-agreement-to-join-chapters-health-system/\">finalized in October 2025\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Andrew Molosky, president and CEO of Chapters Health, who earned \u003ca href=\"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/592264957\">$2.2 million\u003c/a> in total compensation in 2024, visited Hospice East Bay headquarters in Pleasant Hill at the time and, according to staff, he told them he foresaw no cuts to clinical staff and no layoffs of senior leaders for at least a year. Six weeks later, two directors left, allegedly forced into retirement. And now staff are fighting back against the second round of clinical layoffs in a year, eliminating 30 positions total.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Chapters Health did not comment on the layoff decision, but issued a statement from regional director, Tonya Lyons, who said they were “disappointed” by the union’s plan to strike. Care for current hospice patients will continue through the seven-day walkout, she said, with a contingency team of clinicians, administrators, and on-call physicians.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Lyons said management is committed to reaching a contract with the union that “will lay the groundwork for long-term sustainability and ensure the ability to grow into the future.” \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Union members countered that the current job cuts will leave remaining staff stretched long after the strike is over. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Social workers will have to care for 40 patients instead of 30. Chaplains will have 80 patients instead of 50. Two bereavement counselors will be left to help 1,200 patients and family members facing the loss of their loved ones.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“The remaining chaplains will have to figure out who will not get spiritual care,” said Claire Eustace, a chaplain who will be laid off this month. “It’s one thing when people say they don’t want spiritual care support, but it’s quite a different thing when we decide that for them, because we just don’t have the time to visit them.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1999\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2002210\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed.jpg 1999w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2026/10/261005-HospiceStrike-18-BL_qed-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\" />\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Claire Eustace leads hospice workers and supporters in a chant outside Hospice East Bay’s Pleasant Hill headquarters on Oct. 5, 2026, during the first day of a seven-day strike. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The family support group that Judy Johnson attends is run by a social worker who is being laid off. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>With their increased caseloads, the remaining social workers are unlikely to have time to continue it. Johnson wonders what might happen to the care her sister, Maxine, receives. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She’s 88, suffering from Parkinson’s dementia, and bedbound from a recent fall. Johnson said the nurses and aides who visit are all highly professional, caring people.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“I look at how the home health aide bathes my sister, the gentleness with which she touches her body. \u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>She doesn’t just grab a limb and begin washing it. She said, ‘Miss Maxine, I’m gonna do your arm now, okay?’” Johnson said. If there are more and more patients to visit in a day, she worries, “my sister’s bath may not be so gentle and life-affirming.”\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>The California attorney general’s office reviewed the affiliation agreement between Hospice East Bay and Chapters Health last summer, and approved it on several conditions, including the creation of a quality advisory committee and the maintenance of programs historically funded by donations rather than government payments, like music therapy and bereavement services for families.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>According to staff, such therapy programs have not been maintained, and with the latest round of cuts to the bereavement team, peer support groups and one-on-one counseling for loved ones left behind will be scaled back. It’s unclear what kind of recourse the attorney general’s office may have. It did not respond to requests for comment.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>Social worker Julie Aronowitz, who is also being laid off, compared the staff cuts to a poem about violinist Yitzhak Perlman, who once performed with only three strings on his instrument after one of them broke. He adapted and played with “power and intensity” anyway.\u003c/p>\n\n\n\n\u003cp>“This poem talks about how we make music with what remains,” Aronowitz said. “But how do you make music with just one string left?”\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>",
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"info": "What kind of no sabo word is Hyphenación? For us, it’s about living within a hyphenation. Like being a third-gen Mexican-American from the Texas border now living that Bay Area Chicano life. Like Xorje! Each week we bring together a couple of hyphenated Latinos to talk all about personal life choices: family, careers, relationships, belonging … everything is on the table. ",
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"info": "Our flagship program, helmed by Kai Ryssdal, examines what the day in money delivered, through stories, conversations, newsworthy numbers and more. Updated Monday through Friday at about 3:30 p.m. PT.",
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"info": "The MindShift podcast explores the innovations in education that are shaping how kids learn. Hosts Ki Sung and Katrina Schwartz introduce listeners to educators, researchers, parents and students who are developing effective ways to improve how kids learn. We cover topics like how fed-up administrators are developing surprising tactics to deal with classroom disruptions; how listening to podcasts are helping kids develop reading skills; the consequences of overparenting; and why interdisciplinary learning can engage students on all ends of the traditional achievement spectrum. This podcast is part of the MindShift education site, a division of KQED News. KQED is an NPR/PBS member station based in San Francisco. You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>",
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"info": "For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. Is it the officers, or the public they've sworn to serve?",
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"tagline": "Politics from a personal perspective",
"info": "Political Breakdown is a new series that explores the political intersection of California and the nation. Each week hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos are joined with a new special guest to unpack politics -- with personality — and offer an insider’s glimpse at how politics happens.",
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"possible": {
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"info": "Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.",
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"radiolab": {
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"info": "A two-time Peabody Award-winner, Radiolab is an investigation told through sounds and stories, and centered around one big idea. In the Radiolab world, information sounds like music and science and culture collide. Hosted by Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich, the show is designed for listeners who demand skepticism, but appreciate wonder. WNYC Studios is the producer of other leading podcasts including Freakonomics Radio, Death, Sex & Money, On the Media and many more.",
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"reveal": {
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"info": "Created by The Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, Reveal is public radios first one-hour weekly radio show and podcast dedicated to investigative reporting. Credible, fact based and without a partisan agenda, Reveal combines the power and artistry of driveway moment storytelling with data-rich reporting on critically important issues. The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.",
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},
"rightnowish": {
"id": "rightnowish",
"title": "Rightnowish",
"tagline": "Art is where you find it",
"info": "Rightnowish digs into life in the Bay Area right now… ish. Journalist Pendarvis Harshaw takes us to galleries painted on the sides of liquor stores in West Oakland. We'll dance in warehouses in the Bayview, make smoothies with kids in South Berkeley, and listen to classical music in a 1984 Cutlass Supreme in Richmond. Every week, Pen talks to movers and shakers about how the Bay Area shapes what they create, and how they shape the place we call home.",
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"order": 16
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},
"science-friday": {
"id": "science-friday",
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"info": "Science Friday is a weekly science talk show, broadcast live over public radio stations nationwide. Each week, the show focuses on science topics that are in the news and tries to bring an educated, balanced discussion to bear on the scientific issues at hand. Panels of expert guests join host Ira Flatow, a veteran science journalist, to discuss science and to take questions from listeners during the call-in portion of the program.",
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"snap-judgment": {
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