In June, San Francisco Will Vote on a $535M Earthquake Bond. Here’s What’s in It

Experts have long agreed that San Francisco is due for a big earthquake at any moment on any day. But the city isn’t quite ready for a massive shaking, like the 1989 Loma Prieta or the 1906 earthquake that leveled much of the city.

City leaders have asked residents to approve a $535 million earthquake bond in June, which would fund major seismic upgrades to public infrastructure. The goal is to improve the city’s capacity to respond quickly after a major earthquake and to aid in the aftermath.

Federal seismologists said back in 2014 that there’s nearly a three-in-four chance of a 6.7-magnitude quake by 2044, and we’re already more than a decade into that timeline.

“By passing this bond, we are taking steps to keep San Francisco safe by giving our neighborhoods the tools they need to withstand emergency events and ensuring our city is ready to respond quickly when disaster strikes,” Mayor Daniel Lurie said in a press release.

The entire Bay Area rests on multiple faultlines — including the San Andreas and the Hayward faults. Earthquake impacts could “cascade across shared infrastructure, housing, and lifelines” throughout San Francisco, according to a recent report from the nonprofit think tank SPUR. The report concludes that large portions of the city are potentially ill-prepared for a major earthquake. Namely, some 3,700 concrete buildings that could potentially pancake in a tremor.

Brian Strong, the city’s chief resilience officer, said San Francisco spent more than $20 billion on seismic upgrades over the past several decades, but more needs to be done.

“We’ve touched every neighborhood in the city, and we still have a lot of work to do, which is why another bond is coming up,” Strong said.

Voters approved similar bonds in 2010, 2014, and 2020 as part of a so-called phased approach in shoring up the city’s seismic risk.

Mary Ellen Carroll, executive director of the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management, said the bond would pay for “big ticket items” that need updating. That includes making the city’s 911 call center “secure from a seismic perspective, so we’re functioning after an emergency,” Carroll said.

The bond will focus on five areas: renovating the city’s aging emergency firefighting water system, potentially repairing five unsafe fire stations, updating police stations and support facilities and updating public safety buildings

At $200 million, the largest pot of funds would go to retrofitting and replacing Muni’s more-than-a-century-old Potrero Bus Yard with a seismically safe facility. Some criticized the move as a transportation spending item. But city officials said Potrero Yard is important for “enabling evacuation services following an earthquake.”

“Potrero Yard is at serious risk in a major earthquake,” said Julie Kirschbaum, San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency director of transportation, in a release. “We have to protect our buses and, more importantly, the lives of the staff who maintain and operate them.

The second-highest dollar amount is $130 million to expand the city’s emergency firefighting water system “into underserved areas on the west side,” which, city officials said, “lack adequate firefighting water infrastructure.” The updates could include extending high-pressure water pipelines, adding fire hydrants, and other infrastructure.

Some people have suggested that relying on the Pacific Ocean’s copious water would be a better use of the funds. The plan would also update infrastructure at Fort Mason to pump water from the bay during an event.

“Many west side facilities, including fire stations, the Taraval Police Station, and our emergency water system, are older and more vulnerable in a major quake,” District 4 Supervisor Alan Wong said in a release. “This bond is an important step toward making sure the Sunset is not an afterthought and that our communities have the infrastructure they need to stay safe and recover.”