California gained 39,200 payroll jobs in September and 25,700 in October. One might be inclined to see these data points as glimmers of hope.
But Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg, author of the California chapter of the latest quarterly forecast from UCLA's Anderson School, urges us to measure our optimism.
Yes, said Nickelsburg: there are parts of California that are doing better than the US, particularly the South Bay, but our economic prospects remain tied to what happens nationally and internationally. And what's happening in Europe is a drag everywhere.
Europe? Surely California looks West to Asia more than it looks East to Europe, I pointed out. Nickelsburg explained that, for starters, around 25% of US exports go to Europe. But also, Asian manufacturing powerhouses export to Europe.
"In fact, Europe is the largest trading partner of China, the largest export market for China - not the United States. There's a sort of circuitous route through our Asian connection that makes Europe, and what happens in Europe, important for California's economic growth."