Oakland Crime Plunges in 2026, but Many Residents Haven’t Felt the Shift

On a warm, sunlit afternoon around Lake Merritt, just days after city leaders announced a sharp drop in crime, a KQED reporter and photographer approached Oakland residents with a simple question: In a city long defined by its struggles with violence, does this moment feel any different?

Are residents feeling it?

The answer depends on who you ask — and where they live.

“I feel safe,” said Andy Stern, a member of the Oakland Yellowjackets Bicycle Club whose home was burglarized several years ago. “I don’t know that I recognize the decrease in crime, but it doesn’t feel like an unsafe place. We cycle around Oakland a lot.”

His fellow cyclist, Antonia Bowman, said her sense of safety has improved since a traumatic robbery before the pandemic.

“I was robbed at gunpoint and I lost my wallet and backpack,” Bowman said. “But I haven’t had anything serious like that happen to me while continuing to live in Oakland since that time.”

Their experiences mirror the city’s latest data, which shows broad declines across multiple categories. Violent crime — including homicide and rape — is down 22% in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2025. Homicides alone have fallen 39%, according to city figures released April 2.

The drop builds on trends from 2025, when Oakland saw significant reductions in violent crime following pandemic-era spikes. The East Bay city is not alone: Nationwide, homicide rates have fallen sharply, reaching some of the lowest levels since modern record-keeping began in the late 1950s.

Still, the reasons behind the decline remain unclear, and the impact on daily life is uneven.

In East Oakland, where crime has historically been concentrated, some residents say they are beginning to notice a difference.

“I live in one of the hardest parts of the city, which is 105th Avenue, where there’s a lot of crime,” said 72-year-old Melvin Welch, who has lived in Oakland since infancy. “A man like me shouldn’t be afraid of having to rush home before it gets dark because of crime.”

Welch said that, at least in recent months, that fear has eased.

“It’s a good thing, especially for me,” he said. “Oakland is a beautiful city. We get a bad rep because of crime.”

Others say the numbers are encouraging, even if the shift isn’t always visible.

“It makes me happy to know that there is a drop in crime,” said Lindsey Pease, an Oakland resident. “Hopefully that means the perception will catch up for people who grew up in Oakland because they were direct victims of a crime or their perception of it.”

For some, the perception gap is as important as the statistics.

“I’ve felt like the crime rate thing was more of a story being told about Oakland than an experience of Oakland itself,” said Liv Schaffer. “I’ve always felt a lot of real neighborly sense here.”

The disconnect between data and lived experience is not unusual, experts say. Crime trends often take time to register in public perception, particularly in cities like Oakland where high-profile incidents and long-standing narratives shape how residents and outsiders view safety.

Local officials and researchers point to several possible factors behind the recent decline. According to reporting by The Oaklandside, targeted policing strategies and focused deterrence efforts — which concentrate resources on individuals and groups most likely to be involved in violence — have played a key role in reducing homicides and shootings.

At the same time, city leaders are emphasizing long-term approaches that go beyond policing. One of the most ambitious is the “Rise East” initiative, a $100 million effort aimed at addressing the root causes of violence in East Oakland through economic investment, housing, workforce development and community-led programs. The initiative seeks to reduce poverty and stabilize neighborhoods that have experienced decades of disinvestment.

Supporters argue that such investments are essential to sustaining any gains in public safety.

Oakland officials are also in the midst of searching for a new permanent police chief after a period of leadership turnover in the department. The city has held public forums to gather input from residents, underscoring the role community trust may play in shaping future crime strategies.

Meanwhile, recent reporting by the East Bay Times indicates that city leaders are already discussing how to maintain the downward trend, including continuing targeted enforcement and expanding prevention programs.

Despite the uncertainty around what exactly is driving the decline, many residents say the trajectory itself is what matters most.

“It’s positive news, and as a resident of Oakland I am very happy to see that,” Bowman said. “There is a lot of work to do, but at least it’s moving in a positive direction, and I’m hoping there’s a way to keep the progress moving forward.”

Oakland’s crime data suggests meaningful progress. Whether that progress translates into a lasting sense of safety across all neighborhoods remains an open question — one that will likely define the city’s public safety debate in the months ahead.

KQED’s Otis R. Taylor Jr. contributed to this story.