Buckle Up: The Political Fights Set to Define California in 2026

[This column was reported for Political Breakdown, a bi-monthly newsletter offering analysis and context on Bay Area and California political news. Click here to subscribe.]

The biggest news in the governor’s race this week is who isn’t running: After months of fits and starts and conflicting signals, Attorney General Rob Bonta said late Sunday that he will not seek the top job and instead run for reelection as attorney general.

He’s the latest high-profile Democrat to pass despite pressure from labor and other progressive groups who were hoping to see a well-known ally jump into the race and consolidate the Democratic vote. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla also opted against running last year.

That leaves a crowded — but wide — open field. The latest UC Berkeley poll showed only two candidates — former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — in double digits. Another recent poll from the Public Policy Institute of California had Porter leading the field with former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, and Republican businessman Steve Hilton tied for second place.

Those surveys were taken before two Democrats jumped into the race: Rep. Eric Swalwell and billionaire progressive activist Tom Steyer.

The Democratic field also includes Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state Controller Betty Yee. San José Mayor Matt Mahan has also been making noises about potentially getting in — but has yet to decide. (A quick note: It’s unlikely a Republican could actually win the office, given that Democrats outnumber GOP voters in the state nearly two to one, but Hilton or Bianco could make it into the top two runoff.)

Mark Baldassare, who leads the PPIC poll, said the survey showed mixed signals from the state’s sizable Democratic electorate.

“Many Californians are saying they’re looking for somebody with experience and a proven track record, but not necessarily somebody who’s gonna continue to do what Gavin Newsom has done, although he remains popular as governor,” he said, noting that the poll found 56% of likely voters approve of the job Newsom’s doing.

That dynamic — Newsom remaining relatively popular among his base while voters want the next governor to move the state in a new direction — could make for some interesting messaging gymnastics among the Democratic candidates in the months leading up to the June 2 primary.

Billionaire tax dustup

Speaking of potentially awkward conversations, mainstream Democrats are in a tizzy about a proposal from some of their closest allies in labor to impose a one-time tax on billionaires in California to fill deep cuts to healthcare approved by the Trump administration and congressional Republicans. The proposal would have to be approved by state voters.

Newsom has already made his displeasure known, while none of the candidates for governor has taken a firm position yet several, including Steyer and Thurmond, have signaled their openness to the idea but haven’t weighed in on the actual ballot measure.

Even though the measure has yet to qualify for the ballot, it’s shaping up to be a huge fight, with Newsom staunchly opposed, some billionaires considering fleeing the state and national Republicans salivating over the prospect of California alienating its wealthiest residents.

Newsom seemed to be dancing around the proposal in his final State of the State address last week, where he gave a full-throated defense of the state’s progressive tax system that also seemed to serve as a thinly veiled message to his progressive allies pushing the ballot measure.

“In California, we proudly built one of the most progressive tax systems in the nation. One that asks the highest-income residents to pay a little bit more, without punishing people who are making a little bit less,” he said. “Think about this: 11 states tax their middle class more than California does, and 16 states tax their low-wage earners more than California taxes its high-wage earners.”

It’s unclear how much of Newsom’s opposition has to do with his potential run for president in 2028 — he won’t be in the governor’s office to deal with the fallout if it passes. But his flat rejection of the tax and other tax proposals in recent years has earned him high marks from one key group in California: the state’s powerful chamber of commerce.

California Chamber of Commerce CEO Jennifer Barrera praised the governor for “drawing the line in the sand on tax policy.”

Congressional shakeup

November’s Proposition 50, which redrew the state’s congressional maps to give Democrats a leg up in the 2026 midterms, isn’t the only thing shuffling House races.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a longtime North State politician, died suddenly last week. His death leaves Republicans with an even smaller House majority and means Newsom is now responsible for deciding when a special election to replace him for the rest of his term — which ends next January — should take place.

But whatever happens with LaMalfa’s seat this year, the future of his district is even more uncertain: The district previously ran from just north of Sacramento up to the Oregon border, encompassing mostly rural, red areas. But the boundaries were significantly changed by Prop. 50 to include parts of more liberal Sonoma County, making it a tough seat for Republicans to win this fall.

It would have been an uphill battle even for someone as well-known as LaMalfa, and it’s not clear which Republicans may enter the race. On Wednesday, Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher said he will run in the special election to fill the final months of LaMalfa’s term, but did not say if he will run for a full term in the new district.

The seat is one of five congressional districts redrawn to give Democrats an advantage. On Wednesday, a federal appeals court ruled that Proposition 50 should stand, rejecting Republican arguments that it amounts to illegal gerrymandering. The state GOP, which brought the suit, said it plans to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

We will be closely watching that court case — along with all the congressional races — in the year ahead.

California v. Trump

Of course, we can’t talk about the stories we’ll be watching in 2026 without mentioning the ongoing tensions and battles between the Trump administration and California.

Just this week, Trump said he plans to cut off all funding to sanctuary jurisdictions on Feb. 1, including the state of California.

But it’s not just funding fights: There’s the ongoing anger simmering between the administration and blue cities and states over immigration raids and last week’s fatal Minneapolis shooting by an ICE officer. California officials say they’re ready to hold federal officials to account if they do anything illegal here.

On our podcast Political Breakdown, I sat down with San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins this week to talk about what that could look like and what concerns she has about the Minnesota investigation, given the exclusion of local and state investigators from that probe.

The Minneapolis shooting also came after a rare loss for Trump in the U.S. Supreme Court over his deployment of National Guard troops. The ruling led to the withdrawal of troops from Los Angeles, where they’d been stationed since June.

We will be keeping a close eye on all these things in 2026, from funding cuts to ICE raids to potential troop deployments. Stay tuned.

Don’t Miss: Next week, Political Breakdown co-host Scott Shafer and I will step out of the podcast booth and on-stage to interview San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, one year into his first term. The in-person event is sold out, but come catch us on the free livestream! You can register here.