Fear of ICE Raids Drains Sales for Businesses in Oakland’s Fruitvale

Enriqueta Soriano has sold bejeweled, colorful ball gowns for quinceañeras, weddings and other formal events for 30 years in Oakland’s Fruitvale district, a majority Latino area where one in three residents is foreign-born.

The Mexican immigrant raised six children and saved for retirement with income from her once-prosperous store.

But since reports spread in June of masked federal immigration agents raiding Los Angeles workplaces and Home Depot parking lots, few customers have entered Soriano’s shop. The nosedive in sales came as local merchants were already struggling with public safety concerns that hurt the area’s reputation and drove customers away in recent years, said the 66-year-old.

“Now, to give us the final blow, came the ICE raids that were on TV so much. They really scared people,” Soriano, owner of El Palacio de Novias y Quinceañeras, said in Spanish. “Business is going down, down, down.”

Across California, businesses owned and frequented by immigrants like Soriano’s are suffering from an economic chill driven not just by enforcement, but by fear. Families are staying home, workers are keeping low profiles, and small shops that once thrived are watching their customers disappear. The impact ripples through neighborhoods, local economies and city budgets.

As the Bay Area braced for President Donald Trump’s promised immigration crackdown, small-business owners in the Fruitvale reeled from a steep decline in sales and foot traffic as immigrant communities limit spending and outings to essentials.

Restaurants, grocery stores, travel agencies, retail and auto repair shops along International Boulevard point to a months-long economic slump that could deepen. Businesses across California that serve Latino immigrant customers or employ undocumented workers would be hardest hit, according to experts.

“If the raids start occurring in the [Bay Area] region, you’re going to see huge decreases in revenue and that affects the city budget and the city’s ability to operate — that goes for Oakland and San José as well,” said Abby Raisz, vice president of research at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

After an Immigration and Customs Enforcement workplace raid, rattled undocumented workers may not show up to their jobs in construction, agriculture, hospitality, retail and other industries. The disruptions can raise costs for businesses, which then pass them to consumers. Eventually, Raisz said, most of these immigrants try to go back to work out of financial need, but cut back on spending.

“What they won’t do is go back to establishments. They won’t go eat out at restaurants that maybe they would have previously. They won’t shop locally,” Raisz said, calling it “the cost of fear.”

“That affects the business owners, who often are immigrants themselves, especially when we look at areas that are very concentrated with high shares of immigrants,” she added.

Mass deportations could reduce California’s gross domestic product by $275 billion through labor shortages, supply chain disruptions and reduced household spending, according to a June report by Raisz and other researchers at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute and UC Merced.

California has roughly 2.3 million undocumented immigrants — roughly 8% of its workforce — the most of any state. The Bay Area is home to more than 300,000 undocumented workers, with nearly half concentrated in Alameda and Santa Clara counties, according to estimates by the Migration Policy Institute.

In Los Angeles and Chicago, National Guard troops — sometimes armed with rifles — accompanied ICE agents or provided logistical support. Trump said the troops were needed to protect agents from violent protesters and address “out-of-control crime,” a claim local authorities disputed.

Gilbert Alfonso, who has operated a car transmission repair shop in the Fruitvale for 48 years, said he’s been surprised by how quiet streets have remained amid the looming threat of increased immigration enforcement. Deploying the National Guard, he said, to the neighborhood would only make things worse.

“The businesses around me — the stores, the restaurants — they have no customers. They are just not coming out,” Alfonso, who owns Transmatic Transmission, said. “I’ve been here for that many years and this is the worst I’ve ever seen it.”

He used to handle up to 15 repair jobs a week. Now he’s lucky to get one. Because he owns his building, it blunts the financial hit somewhat, but he feels for other business owners who must come up with the rent money.

“Nobody is driving up or down the streets no more. The foot traffic is hardly anything anymore. My phone doesn’t ring anymore,” he said.

The sales slump and labor disruptions compound the economic uncertainties small businesses face, said Oscar Garcia, senior vice president of the California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce.

“Inflation, cost of doing business, cost of your product or your service, gasoline, rent — all that makes it a bigger challenge,” he said, adding that many businesses also lack access to capital or grants once available during the pandemic. “There are many factors that contribute to slow business.”

In Fruitvale, most merchants told KQED that robberies, theft and vandalism had already hurt profits before the ICE raids in L.A.

The area including Fruitvale had the most robberies from 2020 through 2024 in Oakland, according to a KQED analysis of police data, though other crimes, such as burglaries and auto theft, were more common elsewhere in the city.

“Business owners create economic activity and jobs. These communities must be safe, and I have worked — and will continue to work — with our public safety officials, the Oakland Police Department, and local merchants to determine more effective measures to enhance public safety, which is key to a successful business environment,” Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee said in a statement.

The city budget adopted this year — which lists public safety as a top priority — funds 678 police officers, still short of the 700 required under a 2024 voter-approved ballot measure.

Violent crime has since fallen nationwide, including in Oakland. In the first half of this year, citywide crime dropped significantly compared to last year, including a 41% drop in robberies, according to police. But most Fruitvale business owners, including Soriano, say they haven’t seen much improvement.

Soriano is now considering closing her store for good, which she said fills her with dread. She’s kept the doors open by spending her retirement and savings on rent and bills, but worries she and her husband won’t have enough money to get by.

“I still had the will to fight, to try to move forward. But I’m finding myself in the painful necessity of having to close my business,” she said, as tears streamed down her face. “I’m just so depressed and frustrated.”