New Report Shows US Drug Overdose Deaths Rising Again After Hopeful Decline

The CDC data suggests roughly 82,138 deaths during the 12-month period ending in January 2025. That would be a significant increase from the December 2024 report, but it’s still far below the overdose crisis peak of 114,664 recorded in August 2023.

Still, after seventeen months of declines in fatal overdoses that stunned drug policy experts and an unprecedented 27 percent drop in drug deaths in 2024, some addiction researchers described this report as troubling.

Keith Humphreys, a researcher at Stanford University, said the new CDC data could be an early warning that drug death declines brought on by a number of factors, including the end of COVID pandemic disruptions and weaker fentanyl being sold on U.S. streets, could be fading.

“If we assume it’s not a blip, this makes it more likely that the sudden drop [in fatal overdoses] was a one-off event rather than a fundamental change in epidemic dynamics,” Humphreys said in an email.

Most overdose deaths in the U.S. are caused by fentanyl, but researchers who sample the street drug supply have warned of an increasingly dangerous mix of chemicals being sold by dealers, including cocaine and methamphetamines, as well veterinary tranquilizers such as medetomidine and xylazine.

“Overdose trends are not a one-way street, and there will be periodic local increases,” said Nabarun Dasgupta, who studies overdose trends at the University of North Carolina.

His analysis of the latest CDC data suggested “most of the country is still trending down in the right direction.”

According to Dasgupta, the “increase in predicted national numbers are driven primarily by upticks in Texas, Arizona, California and Washington.”

A ‘blip’ or a troubling new trend?

Drug death data in the U.S. is collected slowly and made public only after significant delays.

Experts say reports like this one, incorporating the most recent available preliminary data from January, offer only a crude snapshot of the current street drug situation.

CDC officials said “fluctuations” in drug overdose deaths could be caused by a number of factors including changes in the illegal drug supply and shifts in access to treatment.

This CDC data is from the period before President Trump took office or any of his policies took effect.

But the apparent rise in drug deaths comes as the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are moving to curtail spending on addiction-related public health and science programs, as well as funding for Medicaid, which currently provides the largest source of insurance coverage for people in the U.S. experiencing addiction.

“America is still in the middle of an incredibly deadly addiction and overdose crisis,” Dr. Stephen Taylor, head of the American Society of Addiction Medicine, said in response to the latest CDC data.

“Reducing federal support for Medicaid — the largest payer of mental health and substance use disorder treatment — would be a sign of retreat,” Taylor added.

Regina LaBelle, former White House acting chief of the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President Joe Biden, who studies addiction policy at Georgetown University, echoed that concern but said she hopes this report amounts to a “blip” in what had been steady improvements in drug death numbers.

“I do know that there’s always more we can do in a bipartisan way to curb overdose deaths. Cutting grants to states and laying off thousands of employees isn’t a plan,” she said.

Last week, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department sent a statement to NPR saying “reorganization” of federal addiction programs is designed to improve their “efficiency and effectiveness.”

“We aim to streamline resources and eliminate redundancies, ensuring that essential mental health and substance use disorder services are delivered more effectively,” the HHS statement said.

In a statement to NPR on Tuesday, CDC officials said this latest data highlights the need for continued “public health investments” to research and monitor street drug impacts.