“It’s definitely a dark period of American history, both what transpired on Jan. 6, but also earlier that prior December, when members of Congress voted against certifying the election of the clear victor in the presidential election,” Micheli said. “Those votes raised the ire of a lot of voters, particularly in California.”
The California Republican Party is confident that the election results will be certified, spokesperson Ellie Hockenbury said in a statement to CalMatters. Still, the party is preparing for issues that may arise.
“To make sure we didn’t leave anything to chance,” she said, the national and state GOP “have invested heavily in an Election Integrity operation to ensure that all concerns are addressed in real-time and that Californians can cast a ballot with confidence that it will be received and counted.”
The state Republican Party is firmly behind Trump, who — despite losing to Biden 63% to 34% in 2020 — still won more votes in California than any other state. In a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday night, Harris leads Trump 59% to 33% among likely voters. But in the swing congressional districts, likely voters are generally evenly divided.
Rep. Ken Calvert, who represents the 41st District in Riverside County, is the only California Republican member of Congress to commit to certifying the presidential election results this time after objecting four years ago. He also joined in the court brief challenging Pennsylvania’s results in 2020 and advocated for a “thorough investigation” of voter fraud allegations in 2021.
Calvert’s campaign did not say why his position has shifted from four years ago.
Rep. Jay Obernolte, who voted to object to the count, told Southern California News Group in 2022 that he still had “serious constitutional reservations about the things that happened in those two states” — Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Reps. David Valadao and Michelle Steel missed the vote in 2021. Steel said she had tested positive for COVID-19, while Valadao had not been sworn in yet because he also tested positive. However, Valadao said on social media he would have voted to certify the election.
The three incumbents who took office in 2023 will face that decision for the first time if they win re-election. But not everyone is answering the question: Rep. John Duarte — a Modesto farmer facing a fierce challenge from Democrat Adam Gray — is the only one to state his position publicly, telling The Sacramento Bee he would vote to certify the presidential election. (Duarte did not respond to a CalMatters inquiry.)
Reps. Kevin Kiley, Vince Fong, Doug LaMalfa, Darrell Issa and Mike Garcia, as well as Obernolte and Valadao, also did not respond to CalMatters inquiries. Matt Gunderson, a candidate for the toss-up 49th District in San Diego County, did not respond to CalMatters.
Republicans are reluctant to speak publicly about the issue because they’re concerned about losing votes from Trump supporters, strategists say.
“It puts Republicans in competitive districts in a difficult position,” said Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party.
“Of course, they’re going to vote to certify the election results, but they don’t really want to inflame the conservative grassroots side either because they need them for their Get Out the Vote. So this is an issue that’s divisive for Republicans, and so I don’t think they want to talk about it much.”
For Republicans running in swing districts, the answer to whether they will uphold the election outcome depends on which voters they want to court, Nalder said.
“Coming out strongly in support of certification would make sense if the goal was to recruit some moderate voters or some voters from the other party in these close races,” she said. “But if the strategy is more about turnouts amongst their base … it probably makes sense to equivocate.”
For GOP members of Congress in safe Republican districts, however, the calculation is more about their “future in the party,” Nalder said.