Either because of the vaccine, the end of the winter COVID-19 surge, or a combination of both, Bay Area counties are seeing huge decreases in new coronavirus cases at long-term-care facilities, which house older people and some of the region's most vulnerable residents.
In Marin County, about two weeks since the second dose of coronavirus vaccine was administered to staff and residents at long-term care facilities, new cases have dropped considerably, according to the county's public health officer, Dr. Matt Willis. That time line corresponds to when the vaccine is considered effective, according to the county.
At one point last year, 28 skilled nursing and assisted living facilities in Marin experienced outbreaks at the same time, Willis said. But no new outbreaks have occurred in February, and cases have dropped from an average of 60 in January to around four this month.
"And that's the first time we've seen that since June," Willis said Tuesday. "And it really correlates pretty closely to when we started offering that second dose of the vaccine."
About 70% of staff and residents on average opted to be vaccinated, resulting in the inoculation of more than 5,000 residents and staff across all county long-term care homes.
Willis says the overall drop in cases since the end of the surge has been a contributing factor to the decline at the facilities, but that the primary cause for the decrease is the vaccine, because in the past when the county experienced this current level of infection, the facilities housed significantly more cases than they are seeing currently.
In Marin, about 85% of deaths attributed to COVID-19 have occurred among long-term care residents.
In San Francisco, according to the county's Department of Public Health, Laguna Honda Hospital and Rehabilitation Center is the largest publicly run skilled nursing facility in the country. Vaccinations for employees began on Dec. 18 and for residents on Jan. 4, SFDPH said, with 90% of residents and 85% of clinical staff opting to get shots.
That has paid off. "We are seeing very promising signs," SFDPH said in a statement Tuesday, "including a significant decrease in new cases in both staff and residents."
The city confirmed 69 COVID-19 cases at the hospital in December, with 53 in January, including six coronavirus patients who died. But so far this month, just six new cases have emerged, none of them residents.
"Today is a momentous day for Laguna Honda," the health department said in a press release. "For the first time since late October, there are no residents in our dedicated COVID-19 unit and no active COVID-19 cases among our resident population."
Currently, across all skilled nursing facilities in the city, an average of just one new COVID-19 infection per day has been detected over roughly the last four weeks, down from a peak of 19.
SFDPH is attributing the decrease to the vaccinations, more testing and the general decline in cases in the community.
Santa Clara County has seen a similarly huge drop in long-term-care cases. But, the department said, "since cases are also dropping in the community at large, we can't say if the drop is directly correlated to people receiving vaccine doses or if that drop would have happened without vaccine."
The trend in Napa County is encouraging as well: No new outbreaks in long-term care facilities have been detected in February, the county said.
—Polly Stryker and Jon Brooks