California has seen a 38% decrease in its coronavirus positivity rate over the last two weeks, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said Tuesday.
The drop in the 14-day rolling average of new daily cases has also been steep. Ghaly, in his weekly COVID-19 briefing, said the decline has provided cause for hope.
"We haven't seen a number like this in quite some time," he said. "It's a positive sign in transmission across the state."
The positivity rate since widespread testing became available hit a low of 2.5 % in mid-October before it began to tick up, trending sharply higher after Thanksgiving and culminating in a peak of 14% on Jan. 8. The rate indicates the percentage of coronavirus test results that come back positive.
Should the trend continue, state projections show that by March 4 California hospitalizations for COVID-19 could be cut more than half, from over 14,000 to about 6,500.
Ghaly also announced that Trinity and Alpine counties will graduate from the state's red tier, indicating "substantial" coronavirus transmission risk, to the orange, or "moderate" risk category.
Urging people to stay safe during the upcoming Super Bowl, he said the pandemic is in the "fourth quarter" but masks and social distancing are still required.
"Don't fumble this," he said. "We're almost there, let's keep our guard up a little bit longer."
You can follow California's coronavirus metrics on the state's data dashboard.