California's public health agency recently surprised local officials by lifting a stay-at-home order in the 13-county Greater Sacramento region.
Suddenly, outdoor dining and worship services were OK again, hair and nail salons and other businesses could reopen, and retailers could have more shoppers inside.
Local officials and businesses were caught off guard. State officials did not describe their reasoning other than to say it was based on a projection for ICU capacity.
“It was a good surprise, but we just didn’t see it coming,” California Restaurant Association President and CEO Jot Condie said. “We just don’t know what happens behind the curtain. It’s created logistical difficulties for the industry,” which scrambled to rehire staff and order food.
State health officials relied on a complex formula to project that while the region’s intensive care capacity was below 10%, it would climb above 15% within four weeks. On Thursday, it was 8%, roughly the same as when the order was lifted.
“What happened to the 15%? What was that all about?” asked Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious-diseases control expert at UCSF. “I was surprised. I assume they know something I don’t know.”
State officials projected future capacity using a combination of models.
“At the moment the projections are not being shared publicly,” California Department of Public Health spokeswoman Ali Bay said in an email.
It’s a mystery how the state decided to lift regional restrictions because officials won’t share their data despite repeated pledges of transparency.
State officials projected intensive care unit capacity and virus spread four weeks into the future to make the determination. Bay said “at the moment the projections are not being shared publicly,” because officials say they could cause more confusion.
San Bernardino County spokesman David Wert said officials there aren’t aware of the secret models but would welcome being able to see the data.
—Don Thompson, Associated Press