SF Election May Tilt Board of Supervisors in Mayor Breed's Favor

In the city’s Richmond District, Breed’s former senior adviser, Marjan Philhour, a moderate Democrat, is locked in a tight race with progressive Democrat Connie Chan. In each day’s new count, the two jockey for the lead by mere dozens of votes, amounting to a toss-up that’s still too close to call.

There are 90,000 mail-in ballots left to count, according to the San Francisco Department of Elections.

Philhour is considered a close ally of Breed’s and if elected, would take the seat of outgoing Supervisor Sandra Lee Fewer, who, while friendly with the mayor, is considered particularly powerful among the progressive camp.

Philhour did not return a request for comment.

Meeting in the Middle

Progressives and moderates play nice on some issues, but add a dash of housing discussion and you’ll often find a combustible mix.

Melgar can perhaps douse the powder keg by serving as a conduit between Breed and the progressive camp. As a candidate, Melgar uniquely obtained the backing of SF YIMBY Action, a pro-housing development group, and also of progressives and their allies who are normally opposed to YIMBY ideologies.

“Affordable housing built on the West Side is my top priority,” Melgar told KQED, where she’s thinking of pushing for subsidized co-ops in partnership with progressive supervisor Gordon Mar, perhaps in a unique arrangement between government and labor groups.

The concept would rely on a funding mechanism favored by progressives and would see the construction of housing in a part of town that moderates have long complained hasn’t borne its fair share of housing development.

And beyond housing proposals alone, boasting allies on both sides of the aisle may make it possible for Melgar to serve as a crucial swing vote on the Board of Supervisors more generally, a position once enjoyed by former supervisor David Chiu, who is now serving as a state Assembly member.

The calculation is simple: If you’re ideologically in two camps, both will negotiate with you for your vote. Melgar could use that power to unite Breed and the supervisors on thorny issues where they may not otherwise see eye to eye.

“I think it’s possible, she certainly could do that,” Campos said. “But for this kind of unity to really work, there has to be a commitment on the part of everyone involved.”

When asked if she thought that dynamic could emerge on the board, Melgar simply answered, “I do.”

“I think if the board reaches out to the mayor there will be a good outcome in this city,”  Campos said.

San Franciscans “elected London Breed mayor and a progressive Board of Supervisors as a balance to one another. I think the hope is that they’ll work together and find a common ground that is needed,” he added.

Even More Leverage

While Melgar’s win may give Breed a trusted ombudsman with the progressive-led board, an additional Philhour win would give Breed a far higher stack of chips at the poker table.

It would give Breed enough allies among the supervisors to break up the progressives’ veto-proof supermajority. It would also give the mayor a chance to stymie higher taxation in future ballot propositions from the board, for instance, or to argue for more affordable housing for middle-income San Franciscans versus low-income residents, two positions she has espoused in previous years.

That’s particularly important with the likely passages of San Francisco’s Propositions I and K, the former of which is a property transfer tax that would raise about $196 million annually for the city’s general fund, and the latter of which is a mandate for the city to build up to 10,000 affordable rental units, a proposal which still needs identified funding.

“The city is buying what the progressives are putting on the ballot right now,” Singh said.

Todd David, director of the SF Housing Action Coalition, said progressives should strike while the iron is hot, as this week’s likely multiple ballot proposition wins would give progressives more tools to begin tackling the housing affordability crisis in a way he claims they have not yet done.

Many political moderates like David, who side with market-rate ideologies, agree that the progressives should aggressively pursue their housing proposals because building more affordable housing on the West Side, for example, would at least see the neighborhood become more housing-dense.

“I’d like to see the Board of Supervisors put their money where their mouth is,” David said. “Take their mandate, and change zoning in the city to allow for some geographic affordable housing equity.”

David critiqued the progressive supervisors for failing to use their majority to add more housing on San Francisco’s West Side.

They have “all said they can do this,” but “last time I checked they haven’t added any new zoning locally,” he said.

Any possible new cooperation between Breed’s camp and the progressives, if pursued, could transform the city, he said.