Californians Motivated By Presidential Race, Skeptical of COVID-19 Vaccine Rush

A whopping 72% of likely voters tell the Public Policy Institute of California that they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s presidential election. A record high for the PPIC poll, and one underscored by the fact that more than 4.5 million Californians have already cast ballots with Election Day still nearly two weeks away.

And the trends hold across party lines. The poll, conducted between October 9 and 18, finds 79% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans and 59% of independent voters say they are more zealous about voting than usual.

PPIC President Mark Baldassare said the presidential race appears to be driving voter interest.

“The enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans, independents (is) all 20 points or more higher than it was at this time before the last presidential election,” he said. “And, you know, we had a pretty good turnout there, too. But this is just like off the charts.”

Who Californians plan to cast their ballot for is unsurprisingly split by party as well: 94% of Democrats will vote for Joe Biden, while 82% of Republicans say they’ll vote for President Trump. Still, GOP voters aren’t as solid in their support for the party leader as Democrats: Ten percent of GOP members will vote for Biden, while 4% remain undecided.

While it’s great that people want to participate in the election, Baldassare said interest for the presidential races does stand to overshadow some of the 12 ballot measures — some quite complicated — that California voters are being asked to weigh in on.

“When you have this level of enthusiasm for the presidential race, it makes you wonder about how much attention people are going to pay to like the rest of the ballot,” he said.

As the state continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic, Californians are also skeptical of the federal government’s role in developing a vaccine. About two-thirds of Californians polled said they are more concerned that a vaccine could be approved too fast, without fully ensuring safety and effectiveness — just 26% are worried about the approval process moving too slow.

Baldassare said he expected this to be a more partisan issue, since Trump has been vocally pushing a vaccine while Democrats have raised concerns that it could be rushed through trials.

“But you have a quarter of the people — whether they're Democrats, Republicans or independents — saying that they will definitely get the vaccine and then everyone else, you know, with some degree of uncertainty around it,” he said, adding that California leaders will need to consider "that this is as much as people would like this pandemic to be over ... they are not, you know, all that sure about what to do about a vaccine."

Gov. Gavin Newsom this week announced that California is creating its own scientific review board to examine the safety of any potential vaccine before it is made available to the state.

Still, most Californians say they will definitely or probably get a vaccine if it were available today, including at least half of Democrats and Republicans. African Americans are the least likely to agree that they’d get a vaccine — just 29% said they would definitely or probably take it — compared to majorities of Asian Americans, Latinos and white Californians.

The poll also found a close race for Proposition 15, which would change how property taxes are assessed on commercial and industrial properties by basing it on current market value rather than purchase price.

Supported by public employee unions, the ballot measure is expected to raise billions of dollars a year for schools and other public programs — but business groups have mounted a huge offense a robust campaign against it. Both the Yes and No campaigns have raised more than $60 million to make their case to voters, making it one of the most expensive measures on the ballot.

PPIC found 49% of voters in favor of Prop. 15, with 45% opposed and 6% undecided; opposition is up 5% from PPIC’s September poll. Democrats, renters and younger Californians are most likely to support Prop. 15, which would split off commercial properties from the protections enshrined in 1978 by Proposition 13. Prop. 15 would not change the way residential property taxes are calculated.

And in the final days of the campaign, Proposition 16, to restore affirmative action in the public sector by repealing 1996’s Proposition 209, is facing an uphill battle. Fifty percent of those polled say they will vote no, 37% are voting yes while 22% remain undecided. Most Democrats support the measure while Republicans and independent voters are opposed.

But Baldasarre said it’s not all bad news for proponents of the measure, which would allow universities and other public agencies to consider race or sex as one factor when making admission and hiring decisions. He noted that there’s virtually no campaign against Prop. 16 and that the Democratic establishment pushing the measure has a lot of resources.

“Last month, we had 22% undecided. Now it's 12. It gained six points on the yes side, and three points on the no side in the last month,” he said. “So the message has gotten through to to some Democrats. Sixty-one percent now of Democrats compared to 46% in September.”

The survey of 1,701 California residents has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.