How Coronavirus Is Busting California’s $187 Million Census Campaign

“Even if you had a super computer that could spit out maps in two weeks, you can’t do that,” said state Sen. Tom Umberg, a Santa Ana Democrat and the co-chair of the Senate’s select committee on the census.

Umberg said lawmakers may need to place a redistricting extension on the November ballot. If approved, the new deadline could bump up against the election cycle. In that case, it’s conceivable candidates could be out campaigning before they find out who they will represent come Election Day.

“Right now as it currently exists, the redistricting maps won’t be final until after the candidacy period opens,” Umberg said. “So in other words, candidates will be potentially running in districts that haven’t been finalized yet, which could create a huge amount of chaos.”

California Went Big on Census Spending

Nearly all states are struggling with low response rates due to coronavirus restrictions, but none have arguably invested as much as California.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and lawmakers injected the state’s census office with a big budget and tasked the staff with coaxing reluctant and apathetic residents to answer nine questions about their households. Through media campaigns and community partnerships, the goal was to get to those hard-to-reach communities prone to historical undercounts.

But while the state is doing better than New Mexico and West Virginia, it only marginally leads others that didn’t invest nearly as much.

As of this week, the Golden State has a 54.6% response rate, which is slightly better than the national average — but well short of California’s 68.2% response rate in 2010. Without course correction, the 2020 census could yield one of the lowest returns in recent memory.

Agencies Offer Conflicting Outlooks

Despite low participation and a number of delays, federal officials remain upbeat.

“From my perspective, we’re on track,” said Jeffrey Enos, a deputy regional director with the U.S. Census Bureau. “We’ve had to make adjustments due to the pandemic. I’m confident this will be a successful and accurate census.”

State census officials don’t share their federal counterpart’s optimism, noting that ever-changing deadlines create bottlenecks for workers on the ground.

“We are working within their timeline,” said Diana Crofts-Pelayo, a spokesperson for California Complete Count. “There are still a lot of unanswered questions for us to ensure that we can pivot accordingly.”

Uncertainty Hinders the Count

The federal government had originally scheduled a count of people who are experiencing homelessness and living outdoors for March 30. After two delays, the Census Bureau has yet to set a new date.

The agency also delayed outreach for people with P.O. boxes and addresses that can’t be verified. For this group, census workers are required to physically find the homes and update addresses that couldn’t be verified. They must also leave census information at the door.

And due to outdated practices, census questionnaires aren’t sent to P.O. boxes. But leaving off those delivery points could overlook rural communities or wildfire victims who remain displaced from their homes.

In response, community organizers are mailing out census information to P.O. boxes ensuring people are at least aware that the census is happening.

Getting Creative on the Hard-to-Reach

Though advocates traded community events for virtual outreach, they worry the hard to reach have only become harder to reach.

Michele Silverthorn said the United Way of San Diego’s census partners found a way to hand out flyers by placing them at food banks and grocery stores. Others are being passed out at schools where people can still pick up meals for their children.

Even in San Mateo County, with the one of the highest response rates, advocates worry about leaving behind vulnerable pockets without conventional canvassing and door knocking. Melissa Vergara said the county is targeting communities with TV ads in Spanish and Mandarin.

Initially, outreach workers hoped to man kiosks for people to fill out their census forms and ask questions in person. The access points were meant to target people without cellphones and internet access since the questionnaires are being submitted online for the first time.

Then the coronavirus happened.

“There was a hope that folks could access computer kiosks in libraries, but people aren’t permitted to enter those kinds of facilities right now,” state Sen. Umberg said. “All of that is hindered.”

Heckler, the outreach worker in Northern California, said people can still phone in their responses, but there aren’t enough operators.

“The wait times have been quite long for the phone,” Heckler said. “I don’t want to send people into a phone call black hole. It should be a 10-minute process.”