If the Republican road to winning back control of the House of Representatives goes through California, the GOP may want to use Google Maps to find an alternate route.
According to third-quarter fundraising totals filed with the Federal Election Commission, the seven Democratic incumbents who flipped Republican districts in 2018 have more than twice as much cash on hand as their top Republican challengers.
Orange County Democrat Katie Porter has emerged as a fundraising star in the freshmen class, raising $2.5 million for her reelection, the most of any freshman in a competitive district. Porter, who defeated Republican Mimi Walters in 2018, has become a social media celebrity following her intense grilling of JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and HUD Secretary Ben Carson during congressional hearings earlier this year.
According to OpenSecrets.org, which tracks campaign contributions, about 55% of Porter’s contributions came from large donors, while 26% were $200 or less. More than a third of her contributions came from out of state.
Also showing especially strong fundraising prowess is Modesto Democrat Josh Harder, who defeated Republican Jeff Denham last year. Harder has so far banked $2 million for his 2020 campaign, with more than twice as much cash on hand (COH) as his top two Republican challengers combined.
When it comes to fundraising, “it’s good to be an incumbent,” said Claremont McKenna College government professor Jack Pitney. “And it’s especially good to be an incumbent of a majority party. Interest groups want to give to incumbents of the majority party, so advantage Democrat.”
But there are some warning signs for Democrats.
In California’s very competitive 21st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat T.J. Cox is facing a rematch against David Valadao, who he narrowly defeated in 2018. Valadao currently has a $200,000 fundraising advantage, even as Cox still has slightly more cash in the bank. The Central Valley district includes parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings and Tulare counties.
As a recent congressman, Valadao still has ties to the district, including major donors who may prefer him over Cox. It remains to be seen whether Valadao’s strong fundraising continues, or if it represents a financial high watermark for him.
“Cox has had some personal problems,” notes Pitney, referring to revelations that Cox failed to disclose several business interests, including his involvement with a Canadian mining company.
“Valadao was very strong up to his defeat, and as a former incumbent he has almost universal name ID,” Pitney said. “If you had to take one of the seats that could be retaken by the Republicans, that would be high on the list.”
Valadao has had his own financial entanglements, however, after he reportedly walked away from an agreement to pay $325,000 in back wages and overtime owed to workers at his family dairy, which declared bankruptcy.
Further south, in Orange County, Republican Young Kim is off to a fast fundraising start, outraising Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros by more than $100,000 in the race for the 39th District.
Cisneros, who last month joined six other freshmen Democratic representatives in writing an op-ed in the Washington Post calling for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, is independently wealthy and can write his campaign a large check at any time. In 2018 he chipped in $9.2 million to underwrite his campaign.
Meanwhile, in the nearby 48th District, freshman Democrat Harley Rouda holds a slight cash on hand advantage over Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel: $1.5 to $1.1 million. However $300,000 of that is cash Steel plowed into her own campaign. In a statement, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) called Steel “a paper tiger” whose fundraising numbers are inflated by her own money. Nonetheless, that money can be used to buy ads in the expensive Los Angeles TV market.
Republicans are hoping that Democrats’ embrace of the impeachment inquiry will be punished by voters in these districts. But there’s little evidence any backlash is underway at this time.
“We understand that this majority we have is pretty fragile,” said DCCC Western Press Secretary Andy Orellana. Most of the 40 seats Democrats picked up in 2018 to take back the House, he added, are all from “traditional Republican or very swing seats, and California is very much the firewall of that. We’re staying focused on California. We’re not taking anything for granted whatsoever. We feel confident, but we’re also not sleeping.”
On the Republican side, there is a fierce intraparty challenge to oust embattled incumbent Duncan Hunter, who was hit with a 60-count indictment on charges of illegally using campaign donations for personal benefit. Hunter is facing a trial in January, setting up a potential battle between two well-known Republicans. Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio has raised $1.6 million, including a $250,000 loan. Hunter has just $289,487 in the bank.
And Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who ran a surprisingly close race against Hunter last time, is running again, with more than $850,000 in the bank.
“The 2020 election is going to favor Democrats in California,” said Pitney. “Most of these seats are very likely holds for Democrats. Republicans might have a shot at picking up one or two. But one of the safest bets you can make is that Democrats are going to have a very strong majority of seats from California.”
Graphics by KQED’s Matthew Green
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