Veteran Orange County Republican Retiring -- More Signs of a Wave Election?

Orange County congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), who easily won a 13th term in November 2016, announced he’ll be retiring rather than face voters in a district that Hillary Clinton had carried.

Even before Monday’s announcement, Democrats were already targeting Royce’s seat, and almost a half-dozen serious candidates had lined up to challenge him.

“In this final year of my Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship, I want to focus fully on the urgent threats facing our nation,” Royce said in a statement. “With this in mind, and with the support of my wife Marie, I have decided not to seek re-election in November.”

Royce has been in Congress since 1993 and was re-elected in November 2016 by 15 percentage points, but the district is changing, along with the rest of Orange County.

“The demographics of Orange County are changing in a way that makes Democrats smile,” said Claremont McKenna political science professor Jack Pitney. “A very large and growing Asian population, a large and growing Latino population. Republicans are going to have a very hard time holding onto seats in this county, both in Congress and the state Legislature.”

Orange County has a very active chapter of “Indivisible,” a progressive organization stoking voter engagement to challenge Republican members of the House. In fact, Indivisible has an organization committed solely to Royce’s 39th Congressional District.

Royce is well-known and well-liked by many voters in his district. Pitney says the surprise retirement signals a coming wave election that could sweep Republicans out of office.

“All the signs point to a big pickup for Democrats,” Pitney said. “And possibly control of the House.”

In fact, just hours after Royce announced his retirement, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report listed the seat as “lean Democratic,” another sign that Orange County, once the bastion of conservatism, is no longer reliably Republican.

Now the question is which Republicans will step forward to fill Royce’s seat — and can they escape being tarnished by President Trump’s lack of popularity in a district Hillary Clinton won by 9 points in November 2016? Among Republicans representing Orange County in the state Legislature are Sens. Pat Bates and Janet Nguyen and Assemblyman Phillip Chen.

Democrats are targeting several other Orange County congressional seats currently held by Republicans, including ones represented by Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters. Each district has attracted several serious Democratic contenders.