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Mina Kim: Welcome back to Forum. I’m Mina Kim. President Trump has said the U.S. will run Venezuela and rebuild its oil infrastructure. On his social media platform last night, he posted that Venezuela will turn over between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil, which will then be sold at market price with the proceeds controlled by Trump.
And this Friday, the heads of major U.S. oil companies — Chevron, Exxon, and others — are scheduled to meet with the president about making significant investments in Venezuela’s oil industry.
To help us wrap our minds around what all this means, I’m joined by Kevin Whitaker, former U.S. ambassador to Colombia and former U.S. deputy chief of mission in Venezuela. He’s currently senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank. Ambassador Whitaker, welcome to Forum.
Kevin Whitaker: Thank you for having me. I’m grateful.
Mina Kim: Glad to have you. Also with us is Antonia Juhasz, investigative journalist covering energy and the environment for Rolling Stone and other outlets. She’s also the author of several books on the oil industry, including The Tyranny of Oil. Antonia, so glad to have you with us too.
Antonia Juhasz: Thanks so much for having me.
Mina Kim: So Ambassador Whitaker, I’ll start with you. First, your reaction to the announcement last night that Venezuela would turn over up to 50 million barrels of oil. Is this a concession by the regime?
Kevin Whitaker: Well, obviously the Trump administration has laid down that we are in charge of the oil resource at this point. So at that level, it’s not surprising. It seems consistent with what the Trump administration has said.
The only other thing I noticed is that if it really is 50 million barrels, that’s two or three days of U.S. consumption. So it’s not a huge amount of oil.
Mina Kim: So, setting aside the fact that it’s not a huge amount of oil, the fact that Venezuela—
Kevin Whitaker: Secretary Rubio and President Trump have laid out that there are going to be some requirements which the United States will impose on Venezuela. One of those requirements is that the United States will be in charge of the oil resource and will decide where the oil will go — including to the United States.
It’s important, obviously, with respect to China, because China is by far the biggest purchaser of Venezuelan oil at this point. So the question will be whether those contracts will continue to be honored.
Mina Kim: Can you say a little more about how you interpret what the president means by “running the country,” while keeping the current regime essentially in place — with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, now at the top of government?
Kevin Whitaker: It’s early days, and all very unclear. It seems quite improvised at this point. But there are two main components the administration has spoken about.
One is oil, which we discussed.
The other is that Venezuela’s foreign relations should be changed to conform with U.S. demands. Secretary Rubio specifically mentioned that the United States has a problem with Venezuelan relations with Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, China, and Cuba.
There are press reports now saying that the United States is demanding the expulsion of certain representatives and diplomats of those countries from Venezuela.
Mina Kim: Yes. Well Antonia, I want to ask you — what questions does this act by the regime to turn over 50 million barrels of oil immediately raise for you? How quickly could this happen? Does the welfare of the Venezuelan people even factor into this, as the president has suggested?
Antonia Juhasz: Yeah. So I agree — this isn’t a lot of oil. What we’re talking about is the excess supply of tankers that have built up as a result of the blockade imposed by the Trump administration. Venezuela has run out of places to put its oil.
As we understand it, this was oil originally intended to go to China — and Trump has declared that it will instead go to the United States and to him.
This move is unprecedented. It’s Trump behaving like autocrats he admires — leaders who personally control their oil industries. He essentially likes the idea of a nationalized oil industry, as long as he’s in charge of it.
But I don’t think that’s how this will ultimately play out. I think what Trump has done is remove Maduro — as he pledged to do — but kept the regime infrastructure in place. And the new president, formerly vice president, has been the person most deeply engaged with U.S. oil companies.
So I think the oil industry will gain the access it has craved.
U.S. oil companies have operated in Venezuela for decades. Some stayed, like Chevron. Others left and had assets expropriated, like Exxon and ConocoPhillips. They will want compensation — and favorable contract terms to return.
And they will want protection for offshore holdings in Guyana that Venezuela has claimed.
So this benefits U.S. oil interests. It does not necessarily benefit human rights or Venezuelan democracy.
Mina Kim: Let me bring our listeners into the conversation. What questions do you have about the president’s focus on Venezuela’s oil or about U.S. oil interests in Venezuela? Also, what do you want to know about the broader role the U.S. is playing — what it means to “run the country”?
You can email forum@kqed.org. Find us on Discord, BlueSky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at KQED Forum. You can call us at 866-733-6786. 866-733-6786.
Well, let’s step back a little bit — because there will be challenges for U.S. oil industries. Ambassador Whitaker, can you help us understand the scale of Venezuela’s oil reserves and the type of oil it has?
Kevin Whitaker: Sure. Venezuela currently produces less than a million barrels per day — down from three million twenty years ago.
They claim to have reserves of a trillion barrels — of which perhaps 300 billion are recoverable at today’s prices. That would place them among the top oil-rich nations globally.
However, Venezuelan crude is very heavy, viscous, and sulfurous. That makes it difficult and expensive to extract and refine — especially compared to lighter oils like Saudi crude.
Oil companies can engineer solutions to below-ground problems. But the above-ground problems — sanctions, legal uncertainty, physical insecurity — are much harder to solve.
Mina Kim: So Antonia, Ambassador Whitaker is laying out these above-ground problems, and the fact that there would have to be substantial long-term investment. But it sounds like your interpretation is still that industry wants in.
Antonia Juhasz: Yes. Oil companies often try to distance themselves publicly from Trump — but when speaking to investors, they emphasize production growth and access to reserves.
Oil companies are valued not only on what they produce, but on what they can claim as reserves. Venezuela has massive reserves. And oil companies are willing to invest heavily to secure access.
Guyana is a good example — complex, expensive, offshore oil — but Exxon and Chevron still committed.
So yes — they want in. But they want the best possible terms.
Mina Kim: We’re talking with Antonia Juhasz, investigative journalist, and Ambassador Kevin Whitaker. Noel on Discord writes: “There’s too much oil already. And the oil companies don’t want to invest in updating the Venezuelan oil infrastructure — even now with officials saying U.S. taxpayers will subsidize it. I don’t want that, and I don’t think most Americans would support that.”
Antonia — briefly — why is Chevron especially well-positioned to operate in Venezuela?
Antonia Juhasz: Chevron has been in Venezuela for about a hundred years. They stayed when others left. They have long-standing relationships and infrastructure — and they are committed to the long game.
They also operate next-door in Guyana — which ties directly into regional security and oil strategy.
Mina Kim: A listener writes: “When gas prices go down — thank you, Trump. The cost of living goes down.” Will we see that?
Antonia Juhasz: I don’t think there’s any guarantee.
Even if Venezuela increases production, that does not necessarily translate into cheaper U.S. gas prices. Oil refined here doesn’t have to stay here.
We may not see a rapid supply increase. So I don’t expect meaningful price drops simply from this action.
Mina Kim: Again, we’re talking with Antonia Juhasz and Ambassador Kevin Whitaker about the U.S. role in Venezuela and efforts to control Venezuela’s oil industry.
Listeners — what concerns or questions do you have about the president’s focus on Venezuelan oil? And what’s your reaction to Trump’s stated interest in “owning the Western Hemisphere”? What does a return to a sphere-of-influence doctrine bring up for you?
The email address is forum@kqed.org. Find us on Discord, BlueSky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at KQED Forum. And call us at 866-733-6786.
One listener writes: “What if the ‘this is our hemisphere’ policy is good for both Venezuela and the U.S.?”
Stay with us.
