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Mina Kim: Welcome to Forum. I’m Mina Kim. A CBS News poll last week found Proposition 50 favored by about 60 percent of California voters, and Politico reports that opponents of the proposition — major donors and GOP party leaders — have essentially abandoned the fight. It’s less than a week before Election Day, when voters will decide whether California can redraw its congressional district maps to favor Democrats, in response to Texas’ partisan Republican redistricting.
In several states — both Republican- and Democrat-led — leaders are watching Prop 50 closely as they consider redistricting, too. They’re also watching the Supreme Court to see if it strikes down parts of the Voting Rights Act, which could prompt dramatic changes to election maps. We’ll get into all of it this hour.
Joining me is Erin Covey, editor of the Cook Political Report, where she leads coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives. Erin, welcome back.
Erin Covey: Hi, Mina. Thanks for having me on.
Mina Kim: Also with us, Hansi Lo Wang, correspondent for NPR. Hi, Hansi — glad to have you on, too.
Hansi Lo Wang: Hi, Mina. Thank you for having me.
Mina Kim: So Erin, let me start with you. When we last talked in August, Governor Newsom was just getting this effort off the ground, with a lot of questions about whether he’d be able to pull it off logistically — and with our listeners expressing ambivalence about pausing independent redistricting. Now Prop 50 looks like it could pass on November 4. Is that what you’re seeing too?
Erin Covey: I think so. All signs — polling, ad spending, activity from party leaders — really point to this ballot measure passing by a pretty comfortable margin. For comparison, Kamala Harris won the state last year with 58 percent, and it seems like the ballot measure is on track to pass by a similar margin.
Nonpartisan polling shows a majority of Californians plan to vote “yes” on this amendment. It has roughly a double-digit lead over those voting “no,” based on the latest polling I’ve seen. I think we’re very likely headed toward a situation where California will have a more favorable map for Democrats next year.
Mina Kim: Any sense of what’s contributed to that growing support, Erin?
Erin Covey: Going into this, we weren’t sure how it would land with Californians because gerrymandering remains broadly unpopular among all voters, regardless of party. But supporters of this proposition have done an effective job of framing it as, first, a temporary measure that leaves the independent redistricting commission in place, and second, as a response to Texas Republicans’ attempt to draw themselves three to five additional seats earlier this summer — essentially positioning it as a check on President Trump’s power.
Mina Kim: Yeah. Hansi, would you add anything to that? What do you think has played a role?
Hansi Lo Wang: I’ve talked to redistricting experts, and these are not normal times. Even longtime opponents of gerrymandering, like Common Cause, have shifted their position, saying this is a moment that requires states to respond in ways they might not have supported in the past. And perhaps that’s something voters are taking into account right now.
Mina Kim: In our reporters’ conversations with voters — and from our listeners as well — a lot of people have expressed concern about Donald Trump’s increasing power grabs, pointing to how this was sparked by the president pushing Republicans to redraw maps to favor him, saying he was entitled to more seats.
Erin Covey: That’s correct. This was really driven by the White House, which leaned heavily on Republicans in Texas to redraw their map — one that already favored Republicans but wasn’t as gerrymandered as it could have been. Facing pressure from Trump, Republicans did something incumbents rarely want to do: redistrict, and in doing so, reshape their constituencies.
Now Trump has also leaned on other red states, including North Carolina and Missouri, which have already redrawn maps to favor Republicans, as well as Indiana and Ohio, which are poised to do so. Democrats have been looking for ways to push back, but their options are limited. In states where they control redistricting, like Illinois and Maryland, maps are already heavily gerrymandered in their favor. And in states with independent commissions, like California, those commissions would have to be set aside.
Mina Kim: So let’s dig into where — and by how much — Republicans are most likely to make gains. You’ve been tracking this closely, and the Cook Political Report projects that Republicans could pad their three-seat majority with another six to nine seats. How would that happen?
Erin Covey: That projection assumes, first, that this California map passes next week, which I think is likely. Most of the seats Republicans could pick up would be in Texas — one of the largest states — where they’ve drawn a map allowing them to pick up three to five seats. They could also likely gain one seat in North Carolina, one in Missouri, and potentially two to three in Ohio.
On the Democratic side, Maryland and Illinois have made moves toward redrawing their maps, but those remain uncertain. At the end of the day, Republicans will probably pad their majority by a significant — but not huge — margin. The best-case scenario for them would be about a dozen seats gained through redistricting alone.
Mina Kim: And that best-case scenario assumes California voters reject Prop 50, while red states like Texas, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Kansas, Indiana, and Florida all pick up additional seats — more than a dozen in total.
Erin Covey: Yes, that’s correct. But I think a dozen would be the best-case scenario, including if California voters approve the new map. It’s probably more realistic that Republicans gain six to nine seats. Even in states like Kansas and Indiana, there’s still internal Republican opposition to redrawing maps mid-decade — it’s complicated. They know that while redistricting might win them an extra seat next year, those gains could fade as people move or political opinions shift. Over-gerrymandering can backfire.
Mina Kim: Susan writes, “If so many red states are doing redistricting, will that make the California effort with Prop 50 useless if it passes?” It sounds like it might reduce the advantage red states could get.
Erin Covey: Oh, certainly not useless. California probably has the biggest upside — and in fact, it could have more upside for Democrats than Texas’s map has for Republicans. This California map could not only allow Democrats to pick up three to five seats but also shore up another eight or so Democrats currently in competitive districts.
Mina Kim: So talk about the best-case scenario for Democrats. One, of course, would be if California passes this. But there’s also a wild card you’ve written about — Utah — where Democrats could potentially add a seat even though it’s a red state.
Erin Covey: Yeah, Utah’s a different situation. Its potential new map wasn’t sparked by partisan mid-decade redistricting, but by a lawsuit over the state’s 2021 map. A state judge ruled that the current map doesn’t follow the Utah Constitution and ordered the legislature — dominated by Republicans — to redraw the lines. The proposed map would shift from four safe Republican seats to two competitive Democratic opportunities. But those would still require Democrats to win tough races — they’re not guaranteed pickups.
Mina Kim: Were you surprised that Virginia is also looking to redraw its districts?
Erin Covey: I was, and I think everyone was. The timeline is so tight. California moved quickly and efficiently earlier this summer when it became clear Texas would redraw its map. But in Virginia, the process is more complex. They have a bipartisan — not independent — commission that handles redistricting, and for Democrats to draw a more favorable map, they’d need to amend the state constitution. That requires passage by the legislature in two separate sessions — and voter approval. It’s a lot harder than amending California’s constitution. But Democrats are going to try — it’s definitely on the table.
Mina Kim: That’s right — they’re going for it. So Hansi, as we’ve been saying, Governor Newsom claims that if Prop 50 passes, California could gain up to three to five seats. But we should remind listeners — this is not a done deal.
Hansi Lo Wang: Right. This is all based on projections and analysis. We’ll see how voters actually decide. Redistricting in the middle of a decade — five years after the census data being used was collected — is inherently risky. Voter patterns and demographics change, so both parties may be overestimating where their support lies. We’ll see how it plays out next year.
Mina Kim: Exactly. And Prop 50 would temporarily set aside California’s independent redistricting commission for three election cycles — until 2030. Hansi, how much do you think that sunset clause has helped make the measure more palatable for voters?
Hansi Lo Wang: Opponents of gerrymandering have emphasized that point — it’s a limited, targeted measure in response to what’s happening in Republican-led states like Texas under President Trump’s direction. It’s not a permanent shift away from independent redistricting commissions.
Mina Kim: Listeners, if you were initially ambivalent, what made you come to support it? Was that one of the reasons? Do you support Prop 50 — why or why not? Email forum@kqed.org, or find us on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at KQED Forum. You can also call 866-733-6786. More after the break.
