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Mina Kim: From KQED, welcome to Forum. I’m Mina Kim.
In a new book called Planning Miracles, Jon Cohen, senior correspondent for Science magazine, brings us into the labs and caves where scientists are working to prevent the next pandemic. By some estimates, Cohen says, there are more viruses on Earth than stars in the universe — but only a tiny fraction pose any threat to humans. And Cohen has found that we do have the knowledge and tools to protect ourselves from the most dangerous pathogens, as long as we maintain the political will to keep funding the programs that can keep us safe.
Jon Cohen joins me now. Welcome to Forum.
Jon Cohen: Thanks so much for having me.
Mina Kim: So, Jon, remind me — what are the most dangerous types of pathogens among the many, many viruses out there?
Jon Cohen: There are 111 families of viruses, but only 25 of those make humans sick. And within those 25 families, you can prioritize which are most likely to cause harm. There have been analyses of about a dozen that pose the greatest risks. Some we know well — coronaviruses and influenza, for example. Others are more exotic but familiar to scientists. The idea now is to focus laser-like on those most dangerous families.
Mina Kim: Yeah, and what are the diseases caused by these RNA viruses? You mentioned COVID and influenza — what are some of the others?
Jon Cohen: Oh, it’s a long list.
Mina Kim: The biggies, then.
Jon Cohen: Sure. Dengue is high on that list. Chikungunya, for example — both are mosquito-borne. Then there are exotic viruses like Oropouche, which most people haven’t heard of. It’s in the Amazon and could go global. There are also viruses less known to the public but familiar to researchers, like the togaviruses.
Mina Kim: Ebola, right?
Jon Cohen: Ebola comes from the filovirus family — that includes Ebola and Marburg, the hemorrhagic fever viruses. There’s also mpox, caused by the monkeypox virus. So, yes, it’s a long list. But even then, there are really only about 250 viruses that make humans sick. Many viruses infect us but don’t cause any illness.
Mina Kim: You paint a picture of scientists on the front lines trying to combat these viruses. In broad strokes, can you describe the universe of scientists out there working, as you say, to promote the ounces of pandemic prevention that can spare us pounds of pandemic pain?
Jon Cohen: They fall into several groups. One group focuses on surveillance — looking at animals and humans with unusual diseases to identify what pathogens are circulating. Another group works on vaccines and immunology — studying how our immune systems respond to different viruses. Yet another group develops treatments, whether antiviral drugs, chemical compounds, or monoclonal antibodies. Then there are the leaders who coordinate this work and advocate for equitable access to any medicines developed, recognizing that we’re all in this together.
Mina Kim: Can I ask about one person in particular — Peter…
Jon Cohen: Daszak?
Mina Kim: Yes, Peter Daszak, and the work he’s done on disease surveillance. You went to a bat cave in Vietnam with him.
Jon Cohen: That’s right. Peter Daszak has been heavily criticized for his work funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, which shared some of that money with the Wuhan Institute of Virology and a researcher named Shi Zhengli. Some people believe the virus that caused COVID — SARS-CoV-2 — originated from Shi Zhengli’s lab with the help of Daszak’s funding.
He’s been barred from receiving U.S. government funding, and there’s been a whole political movement attacking him. But Daszak and Shi Zhengli have been doing virus surveillance among bats and other animals for two decades. They’ve published a tremendous number of papers and were the ones who identified that the virus causing SARS in 2003 came from bats. Many researchers feel what’s happened to him has been a witch hunt.
I joined him for his first fieldwork since the pandemic, and it was fascinating to watch his team collaborate with Vietnamese researchers doing dangerous but essential work — extremely carefully and methodically. I’m also at risk in those situations, and I’m not cavalier about it. I was really impressed with their care.
Mina Kim: They were trapping and sampling bats, which, from your description, required enormous effort. Why do bats pose such a unique risk?
Jon Cohen: Bats are mammals, so they get infected with viruses that can infect us. Fish viruses, for example, don’t easily cross over. But bats are also the only flying mammals, so they move viruses from place to place. Their guano — their droppings — contain viruses. Some bats bite other animals, like the vampire bats people know about. That’s not a major transmission route, but it happens.
And there’s the Nipah virus — bats eating mangoes that fall into pig pens, pigs eat the fruit, and then farmers get infected. Bats are the perfect combination of mammal and flyer — they don’t get sick from many viruses, so they can carry them a long time without symptoms.
Mina Kim: Yeah. I also want to ask about pigs.
Jon Cohen: Yeah.
Mina Kim: You note that while we often focus on Asia and wet markets when thinking about the next pandemic, you also point to potential spillover here in the U.S. — with bird flu and hog shows. I was struck by your reporting on those. Can you talk about that?
Jon Cohen: Sure. I’m glad you brought that up. More Americans go to county and state fairs each year than attend all sports games combined. It’s a huge tradition. Many kids grow up in rural areas raising hogs and other animals through 4-H clubs and competing at hog shows.
I grew up in Southern California — no pigs or cows in my life — and I was amazed when I went to a hog show in Des Moines, Iowa. For many families, it’s like Little League. You travel, show your animals, and compete.
A research group from Ohio State has been studying hogs for influenza at these shows. They’ve found that pigs transmit flu to other pigs — and sometimes to humans — every year. Fortunately, we haven’t had a major human outbreak yet, but it could happen. Their surveillance has documented how the virus moves from “jackpot shows,” which draw exhibitors from across the country, to local county and state fairs.
Mina Kim: Right.
Jon Cohen: The winning hogs get infected at the jackpot shows and carry the virus to smaller fairs. These events are perfect for spreading viruses between animals. And the kids who raise them — some even sleep in the pens with their pigs because they love them — are at risk too.
Mina Kim: Yeah, you describe how close they are — grooming them, staying with them. So that’s even riskier than a large hog farm?
Jon Cohen: Exactly. Commercial hog farms have much stricter biosecurity. But these shows are charming community events — no one’s thinking about disease transmission. The researcher I was with, Andy Bowman, told me, “We look at wet markets in China and think they’re dangerous — but these are no different.”
We have to be honest about the risks here in the U.S. too. The problem isn’t just “over there.” We need to look closely at our own surveillance. We saw this recently with bird flu spreading into U.S. dairy cows.
Mina Kim: Yes. How do you think we handled that?
Jon Cohen: Terribly. It was a bumbling mess. States didn’t have consistent policies. The federal government was caught between industry and public health concerns. It took far too long even to implement testing of bulk milk — where the virus could be detected. Many scientists were screaming about how reckless the response was.
Mina Kim: You quote a scientist saying we’re in new territory — a mammalian-adapted H5N1 virus spreading in terrestrial mammals that hundreds of thousands of people are in contact with every day.
Jon Cohen: Exactly. And a lot of dairy workers are undocumented immigrants. They’re not going to seek care when they have symptoms like pink eye — one of the signs of human infection with this bird flu strain. Our eyes actually have a receptor for that virus, which is a strange detail but important.
Because these workers often can’t afford to miss work or fear coming forward, we don’t know how many humans have been infected. There’s no strict system to test them, and that’s a huge blind spot.
Mina Kim: We’re talking with Jon Cohen, senior correspondent for Science magazine and author of the new book Planning Miracles: How to Prevent Future Pandemics.
Listeners, what questions do you have about the most likely sources of the next pandemic? Email us at forum@kqed.org, find us on Discord, Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, or Threads at @KQEDForum, or call us at 866-733-6786.
More after the break. I’m Mina Kim.
