How a Surge in Bay Area Poverty Wiped Out a Decade of Progress

A decade of economic progress in the Bay Area has been erased in less than a year, according to a new report released Wednesday by Tipping Point Community, a San Francisco-based anti-poverty nonprofit.

According to the data, analyzed in partnership with the Public Policy Institute of California, 2023 saw the Bay Area’s poverty rate climb over 4 percentage points from 12.2% in early 2023 to 16.3% by the end of the year. In just nine months, an additional 245,000 Bay Area residents fell into poverty.

“This is one of the fastest regional increases in recent history,” said Sam Cobbs, CEO of Tipping Point, during a media briefing on Tuesday. “That is the size of Boise, Idaho.”

For much of the past decade, poverty in the Bay Area had steadily declined. From 2011 to 2021, the region’s rate fell from 18.7% to 10.8%.

But the expiration of pandemic-era safety net programs (such as the expanded Child Tax Credit and stimulus payments), historic inflation and rising housing costs reversed those gains.

The report paints a stark picture of a region where the cost of living has vastly outpaced wage growth. Between 2016 and 2023, household incomes in the Bay Area rose by 34%, but the cost of living surged by 46%. In total, more than 1.8 million residents — or nearly 3 in 10 people in the region — are now struggling to cover basic needs.

One of the report’s most critical findings challenges the assumption that full-time employment guarantees economic security, Cobbs said. Half of all Bay Area residents living in poverty belong to families with at least one full-time, year-round worker.

“Working full time is no longer the remedy for poverty in the Bay Area,” Cobbs said. “Over 1 million residents in or near poverty live in families where there’s at least one full-time working adult.”

While poverty increased across nearly every county and across all demographics, the Bay’s Black and Asian communities were hit hardest.

San Francisco County, which also saw the largest increases, now holds the highest poverty rate in the region at 17.5%, followed closely by Alameda County. Only Marin County’s poverty rate — at 14.4% — remained unchanged.

The report noted that while safety net programs kept more than 176,000 people out of poverty in 2023, their impact is diminishing.

Ali Sutton, Tipping Point’s chief program officer, warned that the situation could deteriorate further depending on federal policy changes after the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, formally known as HR 1.

“We are expecting some of the deepest cuts to our social safety net in our history,” Sutton said. “Given those substantial cuts, we anticipate these numbers will only worsen over the next few years.”

To address the current crisis, Tipping Point pledged in July to double its investment in the community, committing $1 billion over the next 10 years. Cobbs said the organization, which was founded by Daniel Lurie in 2005, decades before he became San Francisco’s mayor, plans to focus on systemic changes rather than just direct services.

“The data makes clear that progress is possible, but only if we continue to invest in what works,” Cobbs said. “When strong policies and proven programs are in place, like access to affordable childcare, career pathways and safety net benefits, poverty declines. When those supports are rolled back, poverty rises.”

The group specifically called for reforms focused on stabilizing the cost of living and broadest access to benefits. Cobbs urged officials to unlock public funds to preserve and build affordable housing and to expand subsidized child care, arguing that lowering these costs is essential for parents to remain in the workforce.

“This region has the resources, the innovation and the will to solve big problems,” Cobbs said. “Today’s report underscores the urgency, but it also reminds us that solutions are within reach.”