Trump Tariffs Could Cause Job Loss and Lower Incomes in SF

The Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs will result in reduced incomes and a loss of jobs in nearly every industry in San Francisco, according to a new report by the San Francisco Office of Economic Analysis released on Monday.

The hardest-hit sectors are anticipated to be business and professional services, followed by trade, transportation and construction.

As inflation picks up and tariffs drive the price of goods up, San Francisco residents’ disposable income could dwindle by an average of $5,600 per year.

“It’s not going to feel like anybody got a pay cut,” said Ted Egan, the city’s chief economist. “It’s just going to feel like things are more expensive.”

San Francisco and California will be better off than the rest of the country thanks to its status as a hub for technology manufacturing. The industry is poised to gain more than 5,000 jobs over the next 20 years as the price of Asian electronics imports gets more expensive and the rest of the country turns to purchase these goods from the Golden State.

“It doesn’t make California better off, but it does make California better off than the rest of the United States,” Egan said.

The city will still lose more jobs than it gains. The office estimates a net loss of 18,000 jobs between 2025 and 2045.

The report’s projections are based on the assumption that all of President Donald Trump’s tariffs remain in effect and do not include potential interventions by the Federal Reserve.

Last week, the Supreme Court said it would examine whether President Trump exceeded his authority in using emergency powers to implement sweeping tariffs. The president used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose steep tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico over illegal fentanyl imports and to justify “reciprocal” taxes on other major trading partners.

“If they wind up being declared unlawful, then a lot of this bad economic news goes away,” Egan said.

The Federal Reserve could also step in to address the slowdown in economic growth and prevent a recession. The federal government stands to receive significant tariff revenue that could be used to stimulate the economy.

“In theory, the federal government could take all the tariff money and invest in transportation or something else,” said Jeff Bellisario, the executive director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

In addition to adding high-tech manufacturing jobs in San Francisco to offset the harm to other industries, Bellisario recommends city leaders continue to prioritize tourism.

“If you think about the city’s long-term growth, you really want to make sure that tourism continues to thrive,” he said. “I think the story becomes more about — how does San Francisco or California capture its share of a potentially smaller pie when people are out spending money?”

KQED’s Brian Krans contributed to this report.